The Good News: Pats game isn't critical

[GreenBlood]

Well, we're banged up to hell. Flynn will get his first start. Pats rarely lose at home. The chips are majorly stacked against us this week. But there's good news. Winning this game isn't particularly important where the division is concerned. It has bigger potential significance in the wildcard chase, but not the division.

The only game that really matters much this week is the Bears and Vikings. If the Bears win, it doesn't matter if we beat the Pats, the division is theirs. If they lose, it doesn't matter if we lose to the Pats, we will once again be in charge of our own destiny. I guess we'll see if Wilf's Joe Webb experiment is a success or not. The Vikes can win that game if their defense shows up.

If Rodgers was going to miss a game down the stretch, this would be the one you'd want. It could actually work in Flynn's favor. Knowing that most people aren't expecting him to win this game, it could take some pressure off of him and he may end up playing much better than expected and pull out the win... if our defense does its job.

 

[Jess]

Huh?

If the Bears win and we win it's still a 1 game lead. They lose to the Jets, we beat the Giants, winner in week 17 takes the division.

If the Bears win and we lose they clinch.

How is it this game doesn't matter?

 

[Jess]

Huh?

If the Bears win and we win it's still a 1 game lead. They lose to the Jets, we beat the Giants, winner in week 17 takes the division.

If the Bears win and we lose they clinch.

How is it this game doesn't matter?

 

[Powarun]

I understand your philosphy to end the its the end of the world discussion, but really our chances aren't looking too bright without this win.

 

[Incubes12]

It may not be critical, but that's not to say that it isn't a statement game.

I still believe.

 

[IluvGB]

Well since the Vikes are out of it, and winning against the Bears could only benefit the Packers,..I don't see any effort coming from the Vikes,...they will basically show up, throw a token pass or two,..then let the Bears win to put us out! :dontknow:

 

[IluvGB]

It may not be critical, but that's not to say that it isn't a statement game.

I still believe.

o.k... back to thinking positive! :razz:

 

[JoshuaRHuffman]

We could win out and still miss the playoffs. Don't think you're figuring it out correctly.

 

[2411t]

uhh... don't we still control our own destiny just like Jess says? This game is deafly important if we wanna call the shots on where we go post season

EDIT: I thought we did, but guess we don't.

 

[Title Town USA]

His point was that even if the Packers lose this weekend, as long as the Bears lose too, the Packers will control their own destiny for the division title, which is true.

 

[longtimefan]

Bears 9-4 go 1-2 and end up 10-6 one loss HAS to be vs the Vikings

Pack 8-5 go 2-1 (loss to Pats ) end up as 10-6

Tie breaker is head to head, that would be a tie PAcker win last game

Then division record Pack would be 4-2 Bears 4-2 (bears loss to Vikings and Packers)

Some take it form there

 

[GreenBlood]

Well since the Vikes are out of it, and winning against the Bears could only benefit the Packers,..I don't see any effort coming from the Vikes,...they will basically show up, throw a token pass or two,..then let the Bears win to put us out! :dontknow:

Why would they do that? There's no love for the Bears in Minnesota.

 

[JoshuaRHuffman]

Why would they do that? There's no love for the Bears in Minnesota.

T-Jax on IR
Favre is still hurting

Joe Webb starting against Chicago? Hope that Vikes defense is fired up this week!

 

[GreenGoldAngel]

Bears 9-4 go 1-2 and end up 10-6 one loss HAS to be vs the Vikings

Pack 8-5 go 2-1 (loss to Pats ) end up as 10-6

Tie breaker is head to head, that would be a tie PAcker win last game

Then division record Pack would be 4-2 Bears 4-2 (bears loss to Vikings and Packers)

Some take it form there

Take it from here, gives me a headache

If two teams in the same division finish with identical records, the following tiebreakers will be used, in this order, until a champion is determined. 1. Head-to-Head
2. Division Record
3. Common Games
4. Conference Record
5. Strength of Victory
6. Strength of Schedule
7. Combined Ranking Among Conference Teams (points scored and points allowed)
8. Combined Ranking Among All Teams (points scored and points allowed)
9. Net Points (common games)
10. Net Points (all games)
11. Net Touchdowns (all games)

 

[Packman Chant]

I just hope WE WIN, they LOSE. This talk about we lose they lose were ok isnt cutting it for me. Although the pats are outstanding and were not "looking" good going into this week, i do believe! WOOP! We win 24 to 27.

 

[longtimefan]

If Bears lose to Minnesota and Packers they end up 10-6

Common opps

Det,Det, Minny, Minny, Mia, Philly, NE, NYJ, NYG,Washington, Buff, Dallas

8-4

~~~~~

GB 8-4 if Packers lose to NE, and beat NYG

Det,Det, Minny, Minny, Mia, Philly, NE, NYJ, NYG,Washington, Buff, Dallas


So if that is all correct

1. Head-to-Head--they are tied @ 1-1
2. Division Record--they are tied @ 4-2 ( assuming Bears lose to Vikings and Packers)
3. Common Games--GB 8-4, Bears 8-4
4. Conference record Bears 7-3, Packers 8-4

GB wins division with a 10-6 record



Think thats all right?

 

[llondo]

If the Bears lose, and the Packers lose, if Green Bay won out and Chicago lost out (Jets and Packers, very likely), the Packers would win the division. If the Packers and Bears finish tied for the division, Chicago would get the nod due to divisional record. So Chicago needs to lose, with Rodgers out Sunday and the game being at New England, a Packer loss is a sad likelihood, if we want to take the division. However, if Green Bay wins against New York and the Bears, we'd finish 10-6 with an 8-4 conference record.

However, @GreenBlood's point is that the New England game doesn't have ramifications for the wild-card spot, nor likely ramifications if the Bears lose on Sunday. New Orleans may beat Baltimore next week, then lose to Atlanta, and go into Week 17 needing to win against Tampa Bay to secure the 5 seed, because if Tampa Bay wins at Detroit and Seattle, the winner of TB/NO in the last game would take the 5 seed, because if TB won, they'd take it on conference record. If New Orleans loses at Baltimore, and then at Atlanta, winner of the last game would take the fifth seed on record (11-5 to 10-6). Regardless, the last game between Tampa Bay and New Orleans will be contested, and will most likely end with a New Orleans Victory. That way, the Bucs will finish 10-6 with an 8-4 conference record.

If the Giants lose to the Eagles and to the Packers and win their last game, they'd finish at 10-6 also with an 8-4 conference record. If the Giants, Packers, and Buccaneers all end up tied at 10-6, since the Bucs didn't play either team, they all have an 8-4 conference record, and don't have 4 games in common, it would fall onto Strength of Victory. This would be particularly advantageous for the Packers, with wins against the Jets, Giants, and Bears. It would most likely give them the edge in clinching the 6 seed.

Ideally for Packer fans, if the Packers lose on Sunday, the Eagles MUST have beaten the Giants, and the Vikings have beaten the Bears. If the Giants win, they'd likely only receive one more loss at the hands of the Packers, and they and the Eagles would finish at 11-5, with one of them clinching the division and the other, most likely, the last playoff seed. The Eagles face the Cowboys and Vikings in the last two weeks, and it'd be hard to count on a loss to knock them to 10-6. The Saints need to lose to Atlanta in Week 16 to make the last game against Tampa Bay have meaning, which will likely result in a Tampa Bay loss. Or, if the Saints lose to Baltimore, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay, leaving themselves out and Green Bay probably tied at 10-6 with the Giants, the Packers would get the edge.

So, if the Packers lose on Sunday, it's still likely they get into the playoffs. And hey, the Giants, Eagles, Bucs, Saints, and Bears could all lose out and give Green Bay the two seed, even with a Packer loss on Sunday. There's a million ways the Packers could still get into the playoffs, even with a loss. And even if they lose and the Bears win, there's still quite a few ways they could clinch a wild-card spot. Hope is far from lost, if Green Bay wins against the Giants, they'll probably go into Week 17 with a win-and-you're-in scenario.

 

[llondo]

1. Head-to-Head--they are tied @ 1-1
2. Division Record--they are tied @ 4-2 ( assuming Bears lose to Vikings and Packers)
3. Common Games--GB 8-4, Bears 8-4
4. Conference record Bears 7-3, Packers 8-4

GB wins division with a 10-6 record



Think thats all right?

You're right, Bears wouldn't have three, but five conference losses, with the Packers going 8-4. They could finish tied and Packers win the division.

 

[armand34]

Kinda weird that we could really use Brett Favre right now, to start against the BEARS

 

[armand34]

I don't see the Bear's losing this game, therefore this is a MUST WIN game...there's only 3 left & we are down by a game, we NEED this W

 

[JBlood]

Don't ever depend on the Yikes to do anything good for us. This game is critical to our playoff chances.

 

[longtimefan]

according to the ESPN playoff generator

this week...Tampa , Baltimore, Atlanta, Philly, Chicago wins ( packers lose)


nest week...Chicago wins or losses vs JETS, GB wins, Tampa wins vs Seattle, Philly wins or losses vs Vikings, Atlanta wins or losses vs NO....Packers beat NYG


last week...Pack win vs Bears, Atlanta, wins vs Carolina, Philly wins vs Dallas, NYG wins vs Washington,, NO wins vs Tampa

Pack is 6th seed

 

[GreenGoldAngel]

We can lose but win our last two games, Probably won't win our division, but the wild card tiebreakers offer so many different possibilities, I wished I remembered my calculus.

 

[JBlood]

according to the ESPN playoff generator

this week...Tampa , Baltimore, Atlanta, Philly, Chicago wins ( packers lose)


nest week...Chicago wins or losses vs JETS, GB wins, Tampa wins vs Seattle, Philly wins or losses vs Vikings, Atlanta wins or losses vs NO....Packers beat NYG


last week...Pack win vs Bears, Atlanta, wins vs Carolina, Philly wins vs Dallas, NYG wins vs Washington,, NO wins vs Tampa

Pack is 6th seed

Thanks LTF. This is certainly reasonable, and is better than I had thought. The Eagles HAVE to beat the Giants, which is the biggest question mark.

I'm starting to feel a bit better.

 

[GreenGoldAngel]

according to the ESPN playoff generator

this week...Tampa , Baltimore, Atlanta, Philly, Chicago wins ( packers lose)


nest week...Chicago wins or losses vs JETS, GB wins, Tampa wins vs Seattle, Philly wins or losses vs Vikings, Atlanta wins or losses vs NO....Packers beat NYG


last week...Pack win vs Bears, Atlanta, wins vs Carolina, Philly wins vs Dallas, NYG wins vs Washington,, NO wins vs Tampa

Pack is 6th seed

A lot of combinations, but that is the way I calculated it.