The Aaron Jones 2021 FA thread.

[Pokerbrat2000]

Moments and stories like these give me a sad but warm feeling of what these guys can do off the field.

Boy who designed cleats for Packers RB Aaron Jones dies from cancer (packersnews.com)

 

[PackinMSP]

I mean no question that Aaron Jones is a good guy and talented. Probably our most dynamic RB since Ahman

But he isn't Marshall Faulk or LaDainian Tomlinson good and thats probably the type of money needed to keep him

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I mean no question that Aaron Jones is a good guy and talented. Probably our most dynamic RB since Ahman

But he isn't Marshall Faulk or LaDainian Tomlinson good and thats probably the type of money needed to keep him

I'm fine with paying him Faulk money, Marshall Faulk signed a seven-year, $45.15-million contract.

 

[Dantés]

I mean no question that Aaron Jones is a good guy and talented. Probably our most dynamic RB since Ahman

But he isn't Marshall Faulk or LaDainian Tomlinson good and thats probably the type of money needed to keep him

In 2020 money, I don't know what you mean by that.

The top RB contracts right now in average value per season are:

1. McCaffrey: 16M/season
2. Kamara: 15M
3. Elliott: 15M
4. Johnson: 13M (LOL)
5. Cook: 12.6M
6. Henry: 12.5M
7. Mixon: 12M

And then there's a big drop off.

Now I could be surprised, but my guess is that it would take somewhere in the neighborhood of Cook, Henry, Mixon to get it done. Maybe just slightly less.

I don't think he's perceived as being on Kamara's level, and I don't personally believe he will get paid on that tier.

I also don't think he has the production to his name to argue for making more than Cook or Henry in the negotiating room.

If it's 11M, should they do it? I tend to waffle and would really like to know where the cap will actually end up.

 

[Pugger]

Having a good back like Jones is enabling this offense to be elite so IMO if his market isn't crazy this offseason I would welcome him back without question.

 

[PackinMSP]

So Kamara is a "poor man's" Marshall Faulk today in today's passing league

I don't consider Aaron better than Dalvin Cook or Henry but he is more dynamic for sure

Ezekiel is Top 3 paid as he should be, if not the top paid

I mean I forget how inflated contracts are today lol

I mean the running backs today are good but they're not Faulk or LT

 

[Dantés]

So Kamara is a "poor man's" Marshall Faulk today in today's passing league

I don't consider Aaron better than Dalvin Cook or Henry but he is more dynamic for sure

Ezekiel is Top 3 paid as he should be, if not the top paid

I mean I forget how inflated contracts are today lol

I mean the running backs today are good but they're not Faulk or LT

Ok, that’s all fine, but what number would work, in your opinion?

 

[PackinMSP]

I think $10-11MM annual sounds about right

 

[Dantés]

I think $10-11MM annual sounds about right

This is where it becomes tricky for me.

If the cap is up around, say, 190M, I would think that would be a fine move.

If the cap bottoms out around 175M, I would let him walk.

The best case scenario, in my opinion, is that they get him to agree to something between Cook/Henry (12M) and Ekeler (6M).

 

[tynimiller]

I don't believe the case for signing Jones is about what his cost is as much as it is the cost to the roster IF signed honestly. I truly believe that is the hurdle in all honesty. I don't see his agent trying to get over 12.5M and I don't see us trying for lower than 9.5M - the gap relatively isn't that far and could be closed IF the organization knew or had a plan with rest of roster.

The hold up is a lot of that, so much of that, nearly if not all of that hinges on knowing for sure what the cap is going to be.

 

[Mondio]

I'm fine with a "10M" per year contract if it's set up in a way it's basically a 3 year contract with decent bonus and salary per year and to get back to the 10M Per average, a good chunk is in that 4th year as roster bonus or salary type situation. Meaning it would be in real money a 3 year for 7-8M and if he's still doing well, the last year isn't some throw away amount because it's so large you're definitely going to cut him, but if he's still playing well he definitely gets a chance to earn that full amount.

If cap is at 175, that makes everything tougher

 

[sschind]

In 2020 money, I don't know what you mean by that.

The top RB contracts right now in average value per season are:

1. McCaffrey: 16M/season
2. Kamara: 15M
3. Elliott: 15M
4. Johnson: 13M (LOL)
5. Cook: 12.6M
6. Henry: 12.5M
7. Mixon: 12M

And then there's a big drop off.

Now I could be surprised, but my guess is that it would take somewhere in the neighborhood of Cook, Henry, Mixon to get it done. Maybe just slightly less.

I don't think he's perceived as being on Kamara's level, and I don't personally believe he will get paid on that tier.

I also don't think he has the production to his name to argue for making more than Cook or Henry in the negotiating room.

If it's 11M, should they do it? I tend to waffle and would really like to know where the cap will actually end up.

I agree with your arguments but I could see him possibly getting a bit more than Cook and Henry simply because salaries for top tier FAs have a tendency to rise from one year to the next but from a realistic standpoint 10-12 would probably be more in line. I don't think the cap will affect the first tier FAs nearly as much as it will the the lower ranks. Should they do it at 11, like you said, it really depends on where the cap ends up. If its 175 and a bunch of other cuts are needed to make it happen then I'd lean towards letting him walk but if its 195 (a number I've seen thrown around) I'd say yeah, sign him for 11.

 

[Dantés]

I agree with your arguments but I could see him possibly getting a bit more than Cook and Henry simply because salaries for top tier FAs have a tendency to rise from one year to the next but from a realistic standpoint 10-12 would probably be more in line. I don't think the cap will affect the first tier FAs nearly as much as it will the the lower ranks. Should they do it at 11, like you said, it really depends on where the cap ends up. If its 175 and a bunch of other cuts are needed to make it happen then I'd lean towards letting him walk but if its 195 (a number I've seen thrown around) I'd say yeah, sign him for 11.

Salaries do tend to rise year over year, but that’s because the cap rises.

So what happens as we approach seasons in which the cap is going to lower because of COVID?

 

[tynimiller]

Salaries do tend to rise year over year, but that’s because the cap rises.

So what happens as we approach seasons in which the cap is going to lower because of COVID?

Hopefully cause a 30% cut in cost to retain LOL

 

[sschind]

Salaries do tend to rise year over year, but that’s because the cap rises.

So what happens as we approach seasons in which the cap is going to lower because of COVID?

Like I said, I don't think it will affect the top tier players that much. If a team thinks a player will put them over the top they will find a way to sign him. I'm not familiar enough with all the other teams needs to know if there is a team that thinks Jones will put them over the top. What I find very interesting is that all 7 of those players were given that money by their own teams (although Johnsons was eventually traded away) No one paid top money to sign away a RB.

↑
Hopefully cause a 30% cut in cost to retain LOL


A nice thought but I don't think so.

 

[Dantés]

Like I said, I don't think it will affect the top tier players that much. If a team thinks a player will put them over the top they will find a way to sign him. I'm not familiar enough with all the other teams needs to know if there is a team that thinks Jones will put them over the top. What I find very interesting is that all 7 of those players were given that money by their own teams (although Johnsons was eventually traded away) No one paid top money to sign away a RB.

↑
Hopefully cause a 30% cut in cost to retain LOL


A nice thought but I don't think so.

I also don't think we will see a 30% reduction in the "going rates," but neither do I think we will see the same re-setting of the market that we've seen in recent years when the cap was rising by ~10M every year.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Hopefully cause a 30% cut in cost to retain LOL

I agree with Sschind, I don't think the cream at the top of the FA pool will see that much of a dip in contract values. However, I do think that we will see a much larger FA pool and due to that and a lower cap, your 30% and probably more will be shaved off "normal rates". I also think we will see a record # of 1 year deals due to players not wanting to lock up at what will be viewed as a maybe one year blip in what otherwise, has historically been a rise in salaries every year.

 

[tynimiller]

Guys the LOL after the 30% comment was to illustrate the joke of it. I dont for a second envision that happening with top FAs like Jones

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Guys the LOL after the 30% comment was to illustrate the joke of it. I dont for a second envision that happening with top FAs like Jones

Jeesh, now how are we suppose to believe anything you write!

I actually do expect that to happen with some mid to low term free agents though, especially if the cap doesn't significantly come up from the reported minimum of $175M. Basic supply and demand economics will be in full view this winter. The approx. cap rate this season was around $200M/team and many decisions for 2021 and beyond were made well before the knowledge that there could be a large reduction to the Cap. in 2021.

Less total money, same number of players equals reduced salaries for many.

 

[tynimiller]

I'm clinging to the rumors of the cap not hitting that 175 figure, I don't know if I believe the top shelf rumor of 195, but even 185 is more room to breathe.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'm clinging to the rumors of the cap not hitting that 175 figure, I don't know if I believe the top shelf rumor of 195, but even 185 is more room to breathe.

Amazing that when the cap was introduced to the NFL back in 1994, it was set at $34.6 million.

Adding the 17th game would increase revenues, so that might be part of the reason it gets closer to 195. I won't pretend to know how this years cap is going to be determined and whether it will have to be voted on by all the teams, as well as the Players association. I doubt that they will use the normal cap formula, where the previous years revenues is the main driver. That said, I can see where some fat cap teams like Jacksonville, as well as organizations that have a very small war chest, will argue against allowing teams to spend more than what the 2020 economics of the NFL created for all 32 teams.

 

[sschind]

Guys the LOL after the 30% comment was to illustrate the joke of it. I dont for a second envision that happening with top FAs like Jones

Yeah, I knew that. I just couldn't figure out a way to say I knew that.

Still, like I said, its a nice thought.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Preston Smith will shine again if he isn't made to drop back in coverage so much. I don't see how dropping a guy back in coverage who weighs 265 pounds and can get after the passer makes much sense. Keep Smith and get rid of Petine.

Unfortunately getting rid of Pettine doesn't create any cap space though.

Adding the 17th game would increase revenues, so that might be part of the reason it gets closer to 195.

I'm quite sure the 17th game added next season won't have any influence on the cap until the 2022 season.

 

[PikeBadger]

I'm clinging to the rumors of the cap not hitting that 175 figure, I don't know if I believe the top shelf rumor of 195, but even 185 is more room to breathe.

I’m sticking with 183M I heard late last summer.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'm quite sure the 17th game added next season won't have any influence on the cap until the 2022 season.

In "normal times" no, it wouldn't, since they would be basing the 2021 Cap on the revenues from the 2020 Season. However, since the 2020 revenues are going to be way down, I highly doubt that the 2021 cap will be solely driven by it. I think the 17th game revenues will be talked about and used to placate those organizations that might feel its unfair to have to high of a cap.

BTW Captain. Tip of my cap to you. You and I discussed whether this season would even fully happen back in what August? You were convinced it could, I felt it wouldn't. In this situation, I am very happy to say that you were right.