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Rodgers QB Rating Dip

Discussion in 'Green Bay Packers Fan Forum' started by PackinMSP, Oct 13, 2019.

  1. PackinMSP

    PackinMSP Cheesehead

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    Sad to see his qb rating has been dippig the past few years

    I don't think he'll hold the top QB Rating record for much longer
     
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  2. Packer Fan in SD

    Packer Fan in SD Cheesehead

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    If he wins some more Super Bowls who gives a crap?
     
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  3. PackAttack12

    PackAttack12 R-E-L-A-X

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    The Packers are 4-1.
     
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  4. OldSchool101

    OldSchool101 Peerless Beer, Lacrosse WI

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    I only see 2 QBs who have a chance at passing him in that stat. Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott. Both have arguably enough time.. but IMO, Russell is the only one who has both time AND distance in his favor. He’s the closest at just 1.3 points behind, but he also started 4 years after Rodgers (2012).

    Both Brees and Brady who are the next closest over 5 points behind, will likely retire in the next several years and they each have too many years in the rating pipeline, so their career average is going to dilute any additional additives. Neither will likely move the needle enough (either direction) due to the # of seasons that are input.

    It’ll be Rodgers lead to lose, but another year or two anywhere close to 100.0 and Aaron will likely have it wrapped up. He’s too consistent to have a severe drop.

    I’m like the others. I’ll trade the rating drop for another SB or two.
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2019
  5. ls1bob

    ls1bob Cheesehead

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    I heard an interview Aaron had on NFL Radio last week with Brett Favre. He essentially told Brett that he remembers Brett telling him,that as you get older the personal stats don't matter as much as winning does. Aaron told Brett that he is at the point he wants to win and win championships more than have the personal stats. Gave me goosebumps,because if AR sets his mind on something he is going to do everything he can to accomplish it.
     
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  6. Mondio

    Mondio Cheesehead

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    I'm certain that along all stages of both QB's careers, they've gone about trying to win a game the best they knew how. You're not going to find people with a more competitive spirit than these 2. Now the way they go about trying to win later in the careers will be unique to them as they have different skill sets, it will probably be different than their first few years in the league. I don't think their stats were anything more than a by product of them doing what they felt they needed to do to win. Of course that changes as you gain experience, in everything, not just football.
     
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  7. rmontro

    rmontro Cheesehead

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    Just to be clear, Aaron Rodgers leads the NFL in all time passer rating, not QBR. QBR is something ESPN invented. I could very easily see Russel Wilson overtaking Rodgers in passer rating at some point. Right now Rodgers leads 102.8 to 101.7 (according to pro-football-reference.com). But this season, Wilson leads 124.4 to 93.4. If that gap continues, Wilson will overtake him sooner rather than later. I don't see Prescott ever being the all time leader in that category, I think Wilson is much more the real deal in that respect.

    That's great, but winning Super Bowls is not something he can accomplish on his own. He needs to do his part, but it depends just as much on the pieces that around him. He can't just personally decide to win more championships.

    I don't buy into the stories that paint Rodgers as a lite version of a "locker room cancer". But maybe being more focused on championships will result in his supporting the coaches and team more. And maybe taking a step back in the offense if it will help (passing less and developing the running game more).
     
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  8. Curly Calhoun

    Curly Calhoun Cheesehead

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    I'm going with the only stat that really matters is wins & losses.

    At 4-1, Rodgers is looking pretty good right now.
     
  9. greengold

    greengold Cheesehead

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    The most interesting part of your Rodgers/Wilson position is the Russel Wilson has had the benefit of an entire career under a HC who understands the importance of running the football. It opens EVERYTHING up in the passing game.

    Rodgers hasn’t even begun to reap those benefits through these 5 games, but we may see some of that tonight. As our run game becomes more established, I would not doubt seeing but Rodgers’ PR & QBR climb significantly.
     
  10. rmontro

    rmontro Cheesehead

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    This reminds me of how the media often substitutes the word "Rodgers" for the word "Packers". Indicates how they tend to focus on individual players as opposed to teams. For example, I've seen game highlights where the announcer will say something like "Rodgers leads, 24-10", lol.

    Ironic how Pete Carroll is probably best known for a passing play in a Super Bowl, when the armchair critics thought it should have been a run.

    As for the Packers, I think LeFleur will stay dedicated to the run. The only question is whether or not we have the talent to pull it off effectively.
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2019
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  11. Mondio

    Mondio Cheesehead

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    ****, just 2-3 weeks ago people were complaining MLF wouldn't stick with the run either. I think fans tend to miss a lot in situational football and if 1 play isn't a run when they think it should, they think they've abandoned it. We lose 1 of 2 active RB's and our #1 is averaging like 2 YPC, lets run more!
     
  12. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    It takes 1,500 pass attempts to qualify for the career list. Mahomes has currently 845 attempts and a 111.8 passer rating, on track to head the list next season. Watson has 910 attempts and a 104.1 rating, also a candidate to surpass Rodgers next season.

    As I noted before Rodgers recent statements, it is evident he puts a higher priorty on not throwing INTs than the QB rating formula.

    This season he has the one pick to MVS on the carom, a good throw with the receiver hit before the ball arrived. His previous pick was in Week 15 last season against the Bears, another good goal-to-go throw where it needed to be that went off Graham's hands. This was another play where the receiver was hit prior to the ball arriving.

    As noted previously, I'm not going to complain about the no-PI calls; these are bang-bang plays where you might not get the call one day and then get the call the. There were a couple of PI calls in that Houston/KC game yesterday no more egregious that these or the noteble deep throw to MVS. The point being, these were good throws where the INTs could have been negated.

    Before that you have to go back to Week 4 last season against the Bills. That was about a 10 yard seam throw to Graham at midfield in the 2nd. quarter. Edmunds made a leaping tip of the ball just behind the line, getting a finger or two on it, redirecting it, with Graham getting one hand on it and flipping it in the air, with Poyer snagging it. It wasn't a bad throw. It was a great play or fluke play by Edmunds, however you want to look at it, and then sh*t happens.

    Before that you have to go back to Rodgers 3-pick game against Carolina, his first game back after getting that plate and a dozen screws installed in his throwing shoulder. You'd reckon that might require some time to fully heal and adjust.

    So we're looking at nearly 800 throws without an airmailed pick, suckered on a route jump, suckered on a zone blitz with a guy dropping into the throwing lane, suckered by a safety on a deep ball. He sees and knows the field and isn't going to put it where the other guys can catch it.

    Were there some throws in that 800 that might have been picked but dropped? Surely. Every QB is the beneficiary of some of those. But they are few and far between.

    Rodgers was giddy early in the season with his, "We have a defense!" There's no mystery in that reaction. Playing good defense, protecting the ball, running the ball when you can, and having the confidence to get it done when the ball has to be put in the QBs hands can win a lot of games. Factor not getting kicks or punts blocked or giving up long returns into the equation.

    This is a good football team, not a great one. Except for SF, I've watched all the usual suspects for that "great" designation and I'm not seeing one yet.
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2019
  13. PackAttack12

    PackAttack12 R-E-L-A-X

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    Another thing that hurts is Rodgers hasn’t had many 3+ TD games since 2016. TD passes is very friendly to a high passer rating it seems. Very difficult to have a sub 100 rating with 3 or more TD passes. A lot of that has to do with the struggles of the offense as a whole.
     
  14. Curly Calhoun

    Curly Calhoun Cheesehead

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    I believe the advent of fantasy football has created an atmosphere in which some 'fans' are far more interested in player statistics than team accomplishment.
     
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  15. rmontro

    rmontro Cheesehead

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    Was that after the Eagles game? That was our season low in rushing attempts, but there were reasons for it.
    The Eagles defense is highly rated against the run, they're currently #2 in that category.
    Also, their secondary was depleted, they had some starters out with injury (can't remember how many).
    For those reasons, I'm sure the game plan was to pass more on them. Seemed like sound reasoning, but unfortunately it didn't work out for us.

    The level of quarterback play in the NFL right now is crazy, there are a lot of QBs putting up impressive numbers, and several of them are youngsters. Makes Rodgers seem a bit less special in comparison.

    As for the INTs, Rodgers is the anti-Favre. Let's face it, the all time passer rating lead and TD to INT ratio are his main claims to fame right now. They're what people point to when they say Rodgers is the GOAT. If he loses the passer rating lead, that claim becomes more dubious (even though I don't believe in a GOAT).

    Some people have modified their position to say Brady is the GOAT, but Rodgers is the best passer of the ball (BPOtB?).
     
  16. Wi. Mike now in Florida

    Wi. Mike now in Florida Cheesehead

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    I been saying this for years, football is a team sport and it takes more then one player to complete a team.

    I hate that when they refer a complete team by one outstanding player.

    Russel Wilson and the Seahawks
    JJ Watts and the Houston Texans
    Tom Brady and the New England Patriots
    Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions etc.etc.
     
  17. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Actually the offense played pretty well against the Eagles but unfortunately wasn't able to score from short yardage. The defense giving up 34 points didn't help in that game.
     
  18. Mondio

    Mondio Cheesehead

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    It was a team loss. We started moving the ball much better against their less than stellar DB's, but then we couldn't put the ball in the endzone twice from inside the 3? and gave them a short field once or twice because of a turnover.

    Special teams giving up big returns played a role and defense, played pretty well all things considered and losing some guys, but couldn't keep them out of the endzone enough and hold to 3.

    They all get credit for that loss.
     
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  19. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    There are only 4 stats that go into the QB rating formual: completion %, yards per attempt, TD's per attempt and INTs per attempt. They're all important in the calculation. Rodgers has only one good number, the INTs.

    To your point, if we take Rodgers' current numbers and bump the TDs up to 10 (instead of 6) or 2 per game, his rating goes to 101. Make it 15 TDs and it goes to 110.

    Should we care that the paltry 6 TD passes in 5 games puts a dent in the passer rating? No, we should not, if the Packers continue with the 68% red zone TD conversion rate, 5th. ranked and a scant 3% behind the leader. That's been, in the aggregate, against good defenses, ranked 4th., 5th., 6th., 9th. and 14th. in yards and 3rd., 6th., 7th. 9th. and 23rd. in points; 3 of the 5 are in the top 11 in creating turnovers in gross numbers (I'm not going to figure out the per game numbers).

    It's been 8 red zone TD runs for Jones and 5 TD passes by Rodgers on 19 trips. One trip was a kneel-down at the end of the Bears game; the pick at the end of the Philly game might go another way on another day. There's been only one score from outside the red zone.

    Now, you can get to the red zone two ways: chunks on first or second down or converting 3rd. downs in metriculating down the field, or a combination of the two.

    That leads me to two of my three key negatives in team performance to date which have nothing to do with Rodgers TD count:

    1) Third down conversions, 30.5%, 27th. ranked.
    2) The inability to execute LaFleur's outside zone run game, though they seemed to do pretty well last week without it, going inside zone. That's on tape now. If Detroit (or anybody else going forward) schemes for the switch-up, then getting the outsize zone going may be required.
    3) The first opportunity to run a bunch of 7 in coverage dime zone with a big lead stunk up the ballpark, letting Dallas back in the game with chunk plays. That's a good situation to be in, though, up 31-3 with a a little over a quarter to go.

    The 3rd. down conversion rate is my biggest concern.
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2019
  20. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    The Packers being ranked 30th in average yards to go on third down (8.9) has definitely been a factor in them struggling as well.
     
  21. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    That is an important point, but when we break it down (and throw in 4th. down tries) we see an issue below the surface and another takeaway:

    3rd and 1 or 2 yards to go: 2 for 7 conversions, 28.6%. 2-6 passing, 0-1 rushing, 0-2 passing at the goal line
    4th and 1: 0 for 2, 1 pass and 1 rush, the pass at the opponent's goal line
    3rd and 3 - 5 yards to go: 6 for 11 conversions, 54.5%
    3rd and 6 - 8 yards to go: 8 for 17 conversions, 47.1%
    3rd and 9 yards to go: no plays
    3rd and 10 - 15 yards to go: 2 for 16, 12.5%
    3rd and 16 - 28 yards to go: 0 for 8, 0.0%

    The issue below the surface is poor results on those short attempts on 3rd. and 4th. down. Going 50% at 3-8 yards is a good number.

    To your point, there's been a high percentage of long yardage 3rd. downs, with 40.7% of tries having been been from 10+ yards, going 2 for 24 on those 3rd. downs. That's 4.8 drives per game in 3rd. and very long. That's a high percentage of difficult situations.

    The takeaway is when we talk about 3rd. down conversions we're not talking about just what happens on 3rd. downs. We're also talking about getting to favorable down and distance, which in the Packers' case so far has been not getting too close to the 3rd. down marker or goal line. ;) Sacks and 10 yard penalties are especially drive killers.

    Now, a team does not need to convert third downs if they chunk their way down the field and score on first or second down, or hit on big play TDs, or score other ways on defense and special teams directly or indirectly on turnovers and returns to the end zone or deep in the opponents territory, on any given Sunday. But if we look at the ranking of teams on 3rd. down convertions, we see a correlation:

    https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct

    It's not a perfect correlation, but teams that score a lot tend to be clustered toward the top and those that don't toward the bottom. It's one important aspect of offensive performance and conversely defensive performance in stalling opponent drives.
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2019
  22. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    How many games do you have to play to qualify for GOAT? If it is 15, then maybe Jimmy Garoppolo is the GOAT-in-the-making with a 13-2 career record as a starting QB. I'm reminded of Buddy Ryan's infamous critique of Chris Carter: "All he does is catch touchdowns." All Garoppolo has done is win football games despite a 96.7 passer rating.

    What are the exact criteria for the GOAT? Rings? That can't be it. Terry Bradshaw has 4 and nobody seems to want him in the discussion. Something about the quality of his surrounding cast, I suppose, and not great aggregate numbers. So what do you do with guys who had chronically poor surrounding casts?

    It couldn't be passer rating. Romo's 5th. on the list and he hasn't benefited from the more recent rule changes as have the others. Nobody wants to talk about him. Yards and TDs? Marino and Favre keep slipping in consideration faster than their numbers are surpassed.

    If you want to go with Wilson's ring and almost a second, and soon-to-be leading QB rating + running ability, you have to account for the fact that without the Legion of Boom Wilson doesn't sniff those Super Bowls.

    Where are Otto Graham and Johnny Unitus is these discussions? Even Montana is slipping away with the passage of time.

    So, what is it? How do you measure it? How do you weight the factors? You can't. It's a parlor game with no right answers.

    There are great QBs and there's everybody else. Apply that everywhere in life: "there are great x's and everybody else."
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2019
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  23. PackinMSP

    PackinMSP Cheesehead

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    Win/Loss Record and Percentages

    196 - 106 = 65% - Brett Favre
    113 - 65 = 63% - Aaron Rodgers
     
  24. Poppa San

    Poppa San Levelheaded Staff Member Moderator

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    Where did you get your numbers? PFR has different numbers for Brett. 199-123 for 62% Favre had a defense for the first part of his career. Rodgers has a defense here and there. A debate for a different thread.
     
  25. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    QB record is a terrible way to evaluate the GOAT.
     
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