Projecting the 53 Man Roster

[Deleted member 6794]

Nothing against Burks, but I would be THRILLED if Gute were to cut him; because that shows what type of GM we really have. It would be nice if Gute could even trade him, I could be wrong, but I feel we could probably get a 6th for him next year.

I highly doubt that Gutekunst is thinking about releasing Burks only a year after trading up to select him in the third round. In my opinion it's way too early to give up on him.

Out of curiosity, what should another team be interested in trading for Burks if you don't deem him to be worthy of a roster spot on the Packers???

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Nature of the beast. A conflict between floor, ceiling, and liklihood. In the 7th you can get a player who is ready to play, but he wont ever be be more than an average backup. Better to take a Summers who isnt ready, but has the physical skills to be a dominant player. Sure he is a long shot to put things together, but he is the sort of player you need to impact and win as opposed to a guy who can fill in.

Agreed, but IMO some of these "long shots" were carried on the 53 or even the PS far too long by TT. Herb Waters quickly pops into my head. I realize you can't just give up on potential too quickly, but you also shouldn't have too many of such players that you end up having to rely on multiple ones to take starting snaps by mid season. Every team and every season sees 5-10 of these guys come to camp and play through the preseason, there is an abundant supply of them out there. It is Gute and the Packers job to balance future potential with present need. I would rather see the Packers pick up a couple of veteran roster casualties every year, than start the season back filling the 53 just due to potential.

 

[HardRightEdge]

...Davis is a pariah...

That's harsh. That said, it is worth recalling the reports that Gutekunst was looking to trade Davis with less than 2 weeks before the start of last season while the preseason performance of punt returners ranged from ineffective to strange. Leading the "strange" was Alexander, letting balls hit the ground around the 10 yard line while coming up to block the gunner. It worked, twice, but that's luck.

Evidently, Gutekunst was satisfied with the Cobb and Williams fallbacks. Cobb is now gone leaving Williams.

I submit that looking just at return yards and average per return is very deceiving particularly when "good" and "mediocre" is separated by perhaps 20 yards per game in field position according those standard statistics. Ferreting out who is or is not good at the job involves a whole other set of skills that do not show up in the basic stats.

• Job #1 is "don't fumble". Fumbles do not show up in the yardage stats.

• Job #2 is "don't let the ball hit the ground" unless it is inside the 5 which has its own risks. Bad things can and do happen if a returner does not get to the ball. It can bounce downfield for lost field position making the yards or average per return advantage illusory. Worse, the ball can bounce off a teammate for a different kind of fumble.

Not all turnovers are created equal. Fumbles on KOs or punts are the worst kind where the ball and a huge chunk of field position is surrendered, to wit:

https://www.detroitlions.com/video/highlight-lions-recover-packers-muffed-punt-on-goal-line

While this is not the best example, given that two man crowd at the point where the ball is landing, it goes to illustrate the possibilities.

So, what you first look for is a guy with good hands and who puts ball security at the top of his priorities. Second, the guy needs to have the courage to come up in a crowd to make the fair catch with the mental toughness to not fumble, to wit:

https://www.titansonline.com/video/trevor-davis-muffs-punt-titans-recover-18069309

I've been critical of Davis in the past for not doing what he did in this clip which is coming up into the danger zone to make the fair catch. Maybe that's for the best in light of this attempt.

Davis' traditional stats makes him desert without the entree. On those occasions when the punter overkicks his coverage and gives Davis some free run, his elusiveness and speed shows up with some outstanding results. The rest of the time he's a liability. I believe this explains why Gutekunst wanted to move him in lieu of less dynamic but more reliable options.

So far, the reliable options are down to Williams. I believe Gutekunst will be looking for any good reason to shed Davis while Williams might just be enough. Somebody else emerging as at least a second option would seal the deal.

 

[AmishMafia]

EDIT - Nothing against Burks, but I would be THRILLED if Gute were to cut him; because that shows what type of GM we really have. TT would let guys just squat on the roster for 3-5 years before finally replacing them, and I would respect him even more if he admitted it wasn't a good fit and had the Packers move on.

What kind of GM do you want?

A GM who drafts players who don't fit our system?
A GM so fickle, he dumps players before giving them a chance to play?

List of players who took a few years to develop: Devante Adams, Daniels, and Tramon. Could toss a few more on ther, but I think the point should be clear.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

That's harsh. That said, it is worth recalling the reports that Gutekunst was looking to trade Davis with less than 2 weeks before the start of last season while the preseason performance of punt returners ranged from ineffective to strange. Leading the "strange" was Alexander, letting balls hit the ground around the 10 yard line while coming up to block the gunner. It worked, twice, but that's luck.

Evidently, Gutekunst was satisfied with the Cobb and Williams fallbacks. Cobb is now gone leaving Williams.

I submit that looking just at return yards and average per return is very deceiving particularly when "good" and "medicore" is separated by perhaps 20 yards per game in field position according those standard statistics. Ferreting out who is or is not good at the job involves a whole other set of skills that do not show up in the basic stats.

• Job #1 is "don't fumble". Fumbles do not show up in the yardage stats.

• Job #2 is "don't let the ball hit the ground" unless it is inside the 5 which has its own risks. Bad things can and do happen if a returner does not get to the ball. It can bounce downfield for lost field position making the yards or average per return advantage illusory. Worse, the ball can bounce off a teammate for a different kind of fumble.

Not all turnovers are created equal. Fumbles on KOs or punts are the worst kind where the ball and a huge chunk of field position is surrendered, to wit:

https://www.detroitlions.com/video/highlight-lions-recover-packers-muffed-punt-on-goal-line

While this is not the best example, given that two man crowd at the point where the ball is landing, it goes to illustrate the possibilities.

So, what you first look for is a guy with good hands and who puts ball security at the top of his priorities. Second, the guy needs to have the courage to come up in a crowd to make the fair catch with the mental toughness to not fumble, to wit:

https://www.titansonline.com/video/trevor-davis-muffs-punt-titans-recover-18069309

I've been critical of Davis in the past for not doing what he did in this clip which is coming up into the danger zone to make the fair catch. Maybe that's for the best.

Davis' traditional stats makes him desert without the entree. On those occasions when the punter overkicks his coverage and gives Davis some free run, his elusiveness and speed shows up with some outstanding results. The rest of the time he's a liability. I believe this explains why Gutekunst wanted to move him in lieu of less dynamic but more reliable options.

So far, the reliable options are down to Williams. I believe Gutekunst will be looking for any good reason to shed Davis and Williams just might be enough. Somebody else emerging as at least a second option would seal the deal.

THAT play against Detroit is one of my biggest pet peeves on punts! Know where the damn ball is! I put a lot of that on the special teams coach for not instilling better communication and awareness skills with these guys. I remember watching a video discussing that very play and the commentators talking about the fact that it is the return guys job, in this case Williams, to yell "poison, poison poison!" Maybe Williams did and King didn't hear him, but come on man. Let's hope Mennenga is a better special teams coach than we saw from Zook and Slocum, but not hard to improve from those 2.

I have been thinking more about Davis, since my initial postings of "the guy has to go" and you, Dantes, Janis and a few others are correct. I think some of us think all you have to do is plug in a speedy guy and you have an instant return guy. While I think Davis needs to make better decisions in regards to fair catches, letting the ball hit or actually taking the ball up the field, he probably is much further along in that knowledge than everyone besides Tramon and while Tramon is possibly your "safer" choice, Davis probably has a lot more potential to break one.

All that said, if someone turns into a better option than Davis, great. But as of today, Davis probably has the job until he loses it.

 

[SoonerPack]

There are PLENTY of guys that either didn't get drafted at all or went in the late rounds that went on to have really good careers. Kumerow showed more in limited action than Moore and David combined. MVS and St. B have all the talent in the world and MVS really flashed in a couple games so they are givens. Geronimo is a given as well. This is a production based league and Jake showed he can do just that when given the opportunity. One think Snake has going for him is AR12. 12 loves the guy and if you think that doesn't count for anything then you are kidding yourself. If he is healthy, he will be an intergral part of the attack and I feel very confident in saying that. I am not hanging my hat on a guy that has proven to be completely irrelevant in the passing game and pops a decent return or 3 in a given year. I want guys with legit upside and the belief of the QB throwing the passes. I am honestly surprised at the backlash from my comment. I am sticking by my prediction on Jake and don't feel it is some pipedream.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I would rather see the Packers pick up a couple of veteran roster casualties every year, than start the season back filling the 53 just due to potential.

Unfortunately the Packers would need more cap space than they currently have to make it work this season.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Unfortunately the Packers would need more cap space than they currently have to make it work this season.

Probably true, but they do have vets (Daniels, Bulaga, Williams, Crosby) that if the Packers discover that they now have suitable replacements for, could be cut. Cutting just one of those guys, could net the Packers enough to sign more than just one additional veteran FA for a position in need of veteran depth. What that position is and if those guys are expendable, the Packers won't know for quite some time.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

I wouldn't read much into the signing of the UDFA's, the only money they are guaranteed are the signing bonuses, which were $7,000 each for Bolton and Roberts and $4200 for Hamilton. All that really says is that they will probably make it to camp and possibly another team was interested as well.

Also, remember Burks is only a 2nd year guy, who was also injured to start the 2018 season. Far too soon to give up on a 3rd rounder IMO.

Thanks for the information, I wasn't sure if anything was/wasn't guaranteed for UDFAs but even if they got half the rookie salary at that position it would be a steep price given the cap information.

I highly doubt that Gutekunst is thinking about releasing Burks only a year after trading up to select him in the third round. In my opinion it's way too early to give up on him.

Out of curiosity, what should another team be interested in trading for Burks if you don't deem him to be worthy of a roster spot on the Packers???

Personally, I think Burks should have remained a S at Vandy, they did him a misfortune as he moved on to the NFL. If he was going to be remade, a 4-3 OLB would have been preferred if you ask me.

What kind of GM do you want?

A GM who drafts players who don't fit our system?
A GM so fickle, he dumps players before giving them a chance to play?

List of players who took a few years to develop: Devante Adams, Daniels, and Tramon. Could toss a few more on ther, but I think the point should be clear.

I get it. I'm not biased necessarily against Burks, I just felt he was a high risk/high reward pick in the 3rd last year. I know I've been the main guy saying Gute should stick with his picks, but with Moore and Burks I tend to scrutinize them the most as showing they won't pan out sooner than later. If he were to jettison Burks it won't necessarily show him as being fickle, but just knowing when and when not to pull the plug. That's a mainstay in a successful NFL GM's toolbox.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I get it. I'm not biased necessarily against Burks, I just felt he was a high risk/high reward pick in the 3rd last year. I know I've been the main guy saying Gute should stick with his picks, but with Moore and Burks I tend to scrutinize them the most as showing they won't pan out sooner than later. If he were to jettison Burks it won't necessarily show him as being fickle, but just knowing when and when not to pull the plug. That's a mainstay in a successful NFL GM's toolbox.

The good news, we have already seen Gute not afraid to part ways with yesterdays news (Randall, Montgomery, Dix). Even better, he got something in exchange, albeit it not much, but something is better than nothing or hanging on to a player that no longer works for your team, taking a roster position and then getting nothing but possibly an entry into the + side of the compensatory pick formula.

 

[GleefulGary]

Just because he only sees the field on STs, doesnt mean that is all he is there for. Kizer only sees the field on FGs and XPs to hold. That doesnt mean he is here because of that. I think he is here because they are developing him at other positions and roles.


Davis has had his opportunities as a WR. It isnt going to happen for him. If I'm the Packers, if anyone on the roster has an aptitude or skills for it, Davis is gone.

Running good routes and having reliable hands are the 2 most important traits in a WR. Maybe the racist here is you. Maybe you dont like him because he is white and the old dogma 'only black men are good enough to play WR' is stuck in that noggin of yours.

Davis is far superior athletically than Kumerow and yet does little as a WR. You apparently dont value route running high enough. It isnt just knowing where to go and when, there are a dozen little things a guy has to do and a dozen more he can do to get open.

1) I firmly believe that WR's should only be black. It's why I hated Jordy Nelson so much.

2) I don't think you understand what I'm saying here. I very much agree that Kumerow is a much better WR than Davis. It also doesn't matter. Like I mentioned multiple times, at BEST, Kumerow is the #5 WR, and more likely #6. He is at BEST, a #7 option in the offense. He is a complete non-factor offensively. In order to justify keeping him, he needs to either be a developmental WR, or very good at ST's, preferably both. Since he's 27 and been in the league for a few years, he's not much of a developmental WR anymore, and we know he's not a ST's stud. Rostering him would be a poor use of resources, imo.

 

[GleefulGary]

Thanks for the information, I wasn't sure if anything was/wasn't guaranteed for UDFAs but even if they got half the rookie salary at that position it would be a steep price given the cap information.



Personally, I think Burks should have remained a S at Vandy, they did him a misfortune as he moved on to the NFL. If he was going to be remade, a 4-3 OLB would have been preferred if you ask me.



I get it. I'm not biased necessarily against Burks, I just felt he was a high risk/high reward pick in the 3rd last year. I know I've been the main guy saying Gute should stick with his picks, but with Moore and Burks I tend to scrutinize them the most as showing they won't pan out sooner than later. If he were to jettison Burks it won't necessarily show him as being fickle, but just knowing when and when not to pull the plug. That's a mainstay in a successful NFL GM's toolbox.

With what we're doing, a 4-3 OLB is about the same as where he's playing now.

 

[GleefulGary]

Cutting Burks, when everybody knew, or should have known, that he was quite raw after one year would be an incredibly stupid thing for a GM to do.

 

[AmishMafia]

1) I firmly believe that WR's should only be black. It's why I hated Jordy Nelson so much.

2) I don't think you understand what I'm saying here. I very much agree that Kumerow is a much better WR than Davis. It also doesn't matter. Like I mentioned multiple times, at BEST, Kumerow is the #5 WR, and more likely #6. He is at BEST, a #7 option in the offense. He is a complete non-factor offensively. In order to justify keeping him, he needs to either be a developmental WR, or very good at ST's, preferably both. Since he's 27 and been in the league for a few years, he's not much of a developmental WR anymore, and we know he's not a ST's stud. Rostering him would be a poor use of resources, imo.

No, still dont get it. He's gets open and catches the ball. That's what you ask of a WR. Why that makes him the bottom of the barrel, I dont know.

 

[Dantés]

No, still dont get it. He's gets open and catches the ball. That's what you ask of a WR. Why that makes him the bottom of the barrel, I dont know.

The question is whether he will do those things well enough to actually see the field. Because he's probably, at least in my estimation, going to be behind too many other players for that to happen. And when any team is building the back of the roster, ST becomes a major consideration. If Kumerow is better in the offense, but Davis offers value to Menenga, and either would be WR6 on the depth chart, then it makes more sense to go with the lesser receiver who is a better ST value.

I think a lot of fans approach ST as though it will just take care of itself. Teams have to actively consider it. If they let it take care of itself, they would lose games in the 3rd phase. But because of this fan/team discrepancy, teams will sometimes surprise with who they choose to keep. Thus there was some shock last year when Davis was kept again, along with little known LB James Crawford.

 

[GleefulGary]

No, still dont get it. He's gets open and catches the ball. That's what you ask of a WR. Why that makes him the bottom of the barrel, I dont know.

Ok. Let's try this.

Which WR is he playing over:

Adams? Lol.
Allison? No.
MVS? No.
EQSB? No.
Moore? Maybe.
Davis? Yes.

Can he get open against good DB's? I question that. I just don't think he's worth a roster spot as an at best, #5 WR. He doesn't do enough to justify that. He's not a gunner, he's not a returner, he's not young...it just doesn't make sense.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Not 100% agreeing with @JanisJubilee but I will say the sun is setting on Kumerow in a sense. Next year is the offensive Draft that everybody is wanting and while I don't necessarily expect a 1st Round WR, I could definitely see a Day 2 pick allocated if our Year Two guys along with Kumerow don't make the leap. As Kumerow would be 28 after this season he would definitely be getting long in the tooth to be hanging around on any NFL roster without showing promise. We could go back and forth about who stays between Moore, Kumerow, and Davis but I'm going to go on record as saying a 2020 Day 1 or Day 2 pick will be allocated to replace all three. Especially if Allison were to bolt in Free Agency for big money and a starting spot elsewhere(I'm betting on him heavily panning out).

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If he were to jettison Burks it won't necessarily show him as being fickle, but just knowing when and when not to pull the plug. That's a mainstay in a successful NFL GM's toolbox.

It's important for a successful general manager to hit on early draft picks, especially the ones traded up for. I don't see Gutekunst giving up on Burks after only one season.

We could go back and forth about who stays between Moore, Kumerow, and Davis but I'm going to go on record as saying a 2020 Day 1 or Day 2 pick will be allocated to replace all three.

It would be awesome if the Packers could draft a wide receiver capable of replacing three players

 

[Mondio]

Burks didn't exactly blow my doors off, or really make me think, "yeah, this guy is it" by any means, but he was drafted knowing full well he was very raw for the position. I doubt they expected him to get it in one year. Same with Josh Jones. This is his make or break year. But not Burks, He's not going anywhere.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Burks didn't exactly blow my doors off, or really make me think, "yeah, this guy is it" by any means, but he was drafted knowing full well he was very raw for the position. I doubt they expected him to get it in one year. Same with Josh Jones. This is his make or break year. But not Burks, He's not going anywhere.

With the Packers lacking another proven inside linebacker I fully expect both Jones and Burks to make the roster this season.

 

[OldSchool101]

If Trevor Davis is on the actual 53 I will lose my mind. Eating a precious spot up for a guy that may give us 3-4 "good" returns drives me nuts. He brings next to nothing on the offensive side of the ball and choosing him over a guy like Jake K would be monumentally silly. Jake could be a 50+ catch guy with multiple TD's whereas TD gives us a couple returns. I know ST's are an important part of the game but we aren't talking about Desmond Howard for crying out loud. We are talking about an average to slightly above average returner. If TD is on this team then we are more talent deficient than I thought... G P G

In 2017 Davis ranked 7th in KR average and 3rd in the league in PR average on 55 combined returns. That accumulated 1079 total return yards for 7th place in the league overall. At that pace his per return average would place him top as a top 5 PR each year going back three consecutive years as a comparison. That doesn’t even consider our sloppy ST unit negating several of his returns which lowered that average.
Field position is crucial and having a reliable return specialist can take years to find. Again, I’m the first person to state if we can find better results than those let’s move on, until then he’s our guy.

I also could see us keeping both him and Kumerow, so nothing to worry about there. I don’t see us ignoring WR in both FA and the draft and then cutting more of them. That makes no sense to me unless you have an UDFA you are super high on

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

In 2017 Davis ranked 7th in KR average and 3rd in the league in PR average on 55 combined returns. That accumulated 1079 total return yards for 7th place in the league overall. At that pace his per return average would place him top as a top 5 PR each year going back three consecutive years as a comparison. That doesn’t even consider our sloppy ST unit negating several of his returns which lowered that average.
Field position is crucial and having a reliable return specialist can take years to find. Again, I’m the first person to state if we can find better results than those let’s move on, until then he’s our guy.

I also could see us keeping both him and Kumerow, so nothing to worry about there. I don’t see us ignoring WR in both FA and the draft and then cutting more of them. That makes no sense to me unless you have an UDFA you are super high on

I for one haven't questioned whether he is an above average Punt Returner, he is. My questions with Davis are his decision making abilities as the PR. Too often we saw him Fair Catch when he had plenty of room to roam or let the ball hit, when he should have caught it. Now some of that might be due to Ron Zook's incompetence, so I take that into consideration.

The final thing with Davis. If he only manages 4-5 extra yards/return, is that worth a full roster spot on the 53? That is probably my biggest issue, especially when coupled with his decision making attributes and the fact that so far he has shown nothing as a WR.

I would keep him in the situation of:

1. No other player looks like he can fill the role as a PR.
2. The last few spots on the 53 are just for special teams roles and the guys with potential at one of the 22 positions, will most likely slide to the PS safely.
3. The final 53 includes enough at each position and Davis isn't like the 7th WR kept.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The final thing with Davis. If he only manages 4-5 extra yards/return, is that worth a full roster spot on the 53?

Four additional yards on average would have propelled the Packers from 21st to fifth on kickoff returns as well as from 22nd to eighth on punt returns. That would definitely make a significant difference.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Four additional yards on average would have propelled the Packers from 21st to fifth on kickoff returns as well as from 22nd to eighth on punt returns. That would definitely make a significant difference.

Davis doesn't return kickoffs that I am aware of. So does finishing 8th instead of 22nd in punt returns for the season make a significant difference in the win column or just on a stats sheet? I don't know the answer for that, but in the grand scheme of things, starting at the 29 instead of the 25 isn't a deal maker for me.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Davis doesn't return kickoffs that I am aware of. So does finishing 8th instead of 22nd in punt returns for the season make a significant difference in the win column or just on a stats sheet? I don't know the answer for that, but in the grand scheme of things, starting at the 29 instead of the 25 isn't a deal maker for me.

Davis has returned 35 kickoffs for an average of 22.6 yards during his time with the Packers. He only had a single one last season though.

The expected points increase by 0.26 getting the ball on the 29-yard line instead of the 25.