Projecting the 53 Man Roster

[Pokerbrat2000]

Exactly. I am more than open to the idea that more competition could be brought in.

But I would add this: People have a settled distaste for Davis and thus tend to balk at the idea of him being kept primarily as a punt returner. They would likely feel better about some random UDFA being kept primarily as a punt returner just because it would be someone new. But is that really any better? At least Davis has proved his PR ability at this level and has some experience with Rodgers. If you're going to keep someone to return punts, it seems unlikely that you're going to find a better option at this point in the offseason.

But who knows? I'm not trying to rule it out. Maybe someone good will be a cut right before the season.

I wasn't really excited about Davis being kept last year, but came to terms with it. Then he got injured not once, but twice, two trips to the IR. Now I would never say a good player should loose his job due to injuries, but then again, I don't consider Davis all that much of a good player.

I guess I found my "Jeff Janis Whipping Boy" replacement.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Let the cuts begin:

Per the NFL transaction wire, the Packers have waived offensive lineman Nico Siragusa and defensive back Jason Thompson.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Didn't take the Packers long to give Clay's Number away! Or Wilkerson's.

Rashan Gary: 52
Darnell Savage: 26
Elgton Jenkins: 74
Jace Sternberger: 87
Kingsley Keke: 96
Ka’dar Hollman: 29
Dexter Williams: 22
Ty Summers: 44

"Double Deuce Juice is on the loose!"

 

[Dantés]

Didn't take the Packers long to give Clay's Number away! Or Wilkerson's.

Rashan Gary: 52
Darnell Savage: 26
Elgton Jenkins: 74
Jace Sternberger: 87
Kingsley Keke: 96
Ka’dar Hollman: 29
Dexter Williams: 22
Ty Summers: 44

I wonder if that number will actually stick for Gary.

 

[GleefulGary]

Packers not named Trevor Davis returned 26 punts for 154 yards last season (5.9 YPR), which is less than half of Davis' average. And the difference ends up being a lot bigger than just the difference between averages, because bad returners just tend to fair catch a lot more, gaining zero yards of field position. The difference between a good punt returner and a bad one is usually a lot more than 16-20 yards.

I am not trying to say that this is a season making or breaking factor, but it does have a significant impact. And I would much rather keep Davis as the 53rd guy on the roster and have a viable PR game than keep, say, a 5th lineback or a 10th offensive lineman. Davis is going to contribute a lot more to the team than any other roster bubble guy.

Also, the diminishing value of returners only relates to kick returners. Which is why I'm only talking about punt return skills.

Taking in account qualified numbers, only 9 punts returners averaged higher than 10 yards per return. Using guys who just barely missed the cutoff in numbers of returns, there were 11.

Total yards returned for the NFL (just punt returns) was 7,690 yards. Total number of returns was 945. Averages out to a perfect 9 yards per return, and just slightly under 2 returns per game. The Packers themselves had 20 punt returns, 1.25 per game. Highest team had 44 (3/game), lowest team had 12 (0.75/game).

Using the most extreme stats, GB averaging 5.9 yards sans Davis, and the league high qualifying returner at 14.1, for a difference of 8.2 yards. Now let's say 3 returns per game, which was the league high, and you get a total difference of 24.6 yards per game.

My guess of 16-20 was pretty close, it turns out.

 

[GleefulGary]

Fwiw, Trevor Davis is one of the best returners in the league, and a very good gunner. He just needs to stay healthy.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Taking in account qualified numbers, only 9 punts returners averaged higher than 10 yards per return. Using guys who just barely missed the cutoff in numbers of returns, there were 11.

Total yards returned for the NFL (just punt returns) was 7,690 yards. Total number of returns was 945. Averages out to a perfect 9 yards per return, and just slightly under 2 returns per game. The Packers themselves had 20 punt returns, 1.25 per game. Highest team had 44 (3/game), lowest team had 12 (0.75/game).

Using the most extreme stats, GB averaging 5.9 yards sans Davis, and the league high qualifying returner at 14.1, for a difference of 8.2 yards. Now let's say 3 returns per game, which was the league high, and you get a total difference of 24.6 yards per game.

My guess of 16-20 was pretty close, it turns out.

I am guessing you can play this kind of statistical numbers gymnastics with WR's, RB's and even QB's and statistically try to draw a line from Point A to Point B and try to convince people "at the end of the day, it really doesn't matter". No matter how you draw it up, you are going to have a hard time convincing me that when in his prime, a guy like Devin Hester and Davis are even comparable in what they did for their perspective teams.

Davis is a one trick pony that was on IR twice last season, to make the 53 either he has to hope the Packers don't have a better option or he stays healthy and really proves himself worthy as a returner, gunner and backup WR. Part of proving himself is making the right decisions on returns, he wasn't all that good with that.

I also don't understand your posts on him. You seem to want to make the argument that punt returners aren't that important, yet you seem fine with Davis taking a roster spot just to return punts and be a gunner?

 

[Dantés]

Taking in account qualified numbers, only 9 punts returners averaged higher than 10 yards per return. Using guys who just barely missed the cutoff in numbers of returns, there were 11.

Total yards returned for the NFL (just punt returns) was 7,690 yards. Total number of returns was 945. Averages out to a perfect 9 yards per return, and just slightly under 2 returns per game. The Packers themselves had 20 punt returns, 1.25 per game. Highest team had 44 (3/game), lowest team had 12 (0.75/game).

Using the most extreme stats, GB averaging 5.9 yards sans Davis, and the league high qualifying returner at 14.1, for a difference of 8.2 yards. Now let's say 3 returns per game, which was the league high, and you get a total difference of 24.6 yards per game.

My guess of 16-20 was pretty close, it turns out.

You're right, that number was pretty close.

But the issue I have isn't just that the guys we have in house would create a low average punt return. It's that about half of our opponents' punts would not be returned. Williams and Cobb combined for 19 returns last year and 16 FC's. Davis had the problem of fair catching too often as well, but he was new to the role. If he improves in his judgment, the difference in field position would be more pronounced because not only would he average significantly more per return, but he would actually be creating more returns.

Take a nice round number of 50 returns.

Say the crew of underqualified guys decides to actually return 25 of them at 5.9 YPR. That's 148 PR yards on the season, or about 10 per game. But your true average, factoring fair catches, is 2.96 yds per opponent punt.

If Davis were to return 35 of them at 12 YPR, that's 420 PR yards, or 26 per game. The true average here is 8.4 yards per opponent punt.

The difference seems small, and it is on an average basis, but it wouldn't always be 8.4 yards. Sometimes it would be nothing, and sometimes it would be 20. Sometimes it would create really favorable field position. And favorable field position leads to more scoring, statically.

It's not all important, but it matters. So I don't know why we wouldn't keep a 53rd guy who can contribute in an area that matters as opposed to a healthy scratch linebacker or some OL who is roughly equivalent to the guys on the practice squad.

 

[Dantés]

The other point I would make here is that if Davis isn't returning punts, then it will be either Williams, Alexander, or Savage. Not only are they less effective than he is (Savage, we presume), but they are also all starting players in the nickel. Unless Tramon gets beat out, he will be one of the top 3 corners, Alexander is the top corner, and Savage will be the starting FS. So while the impact of using a less returner might not be hugely dramatic in terms of yardage, it could expose a critical piece of the secondary to injury risk. I would be totally pissed if Jaire Alexander got hurt on a return all because they wanted to keep Jake Kumerow over Trevor Davis.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The other point I would make here is that if Davis isn't returning punts, then it will be either Williams, Alexander, or Savage. Not only are they less effective than he is (Savage, we presume), but they are also all starting players in the nickel. Unless Tramon gets beat out, he will be one of the top 3 corners, Alexander is the top corner, and Savage will be the starting FS. So while the impact of using a less returner might not be hugely dramatic in terms of yardage, it could expose a critical piece of the secondary to injury risk. I would be totally pissed if Jaire Alexander got hurt on a return all because they wanted to keep Jake Kumerow over Trevor Davis.

I think I remember reading something last year that kind of dispelled that theory on punt returners, that of being high injury rate. Kick returners I believe suffered more injuries.

Of course you expose whoever is returning punts to more hits, but hell, our Secondary seems to get injured crossing white lines.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I wonder if that number will actually stick for Gary.

Oh I think we are going to see it stuck to a lot of opponents with the ball.

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[Dantés]

I think I remember reading something last year that kind of dispelled that theory on punt returners, that of being high injury rate. Kick returners I believe suffered more injuries.

Of course you expose whoever is returning punts to more hits, but hell, our Secondary seems to get injured crossing white lines.

I've never seen the numbers. I'm sure the injury rate isn't super high. There aren't that many punt returns in a season for any particular returner. But it's still exposure. There's a reason why NFL teams tend to move important players out of that role, especially as they get older. You don't see many punt returners who are key players on offense/defense.

 

[GleefulGary]

You're right, that number was pretty close.

But the issue I have isn't just that the guys we have in house would create a low average punt return. It's that about half of our opponents' punts would not be returned. Williams and Cobb combined for 19 returns last year and 16 FC's. Davis had the problem of fair catching too often as well, but he was new to the role. If he improves in his judgment, the difference in field position would be more pronounced because not only would he average significantly more per return, but he would actually be creating more returns.

Take a nice round number of 50 returns.

Say the crew of underqualified guys decides to actually return 25 of them at 5.9 YPR. That's 148 PR yards on the season, or about 10 per game. But your true average, factoring fair catches, is 2.96 yds per opponent punt.

If Davis were to return 35 of them at 12 YPR, that's 420 PR yards, or 26 per game. The true average here is 8.4 yards per opponent punt.

The difference seems small, and it is on an average basis, but it wouldn't always be 8.4 yards. Sometimes it would be nothing, and sometimes it would be 20. Sometimes it would create really favorable field position. And favorable field position leads to more scoring, statically.

It's not all important, but it matters. So I don't know why we wouldn't keep a 53rd guy who can contribute in an area that matters as opposed to a healthy scratch linebacker or some OL who is roughly equivalent to the guys on the practice squad.

I mean, the Rams returned 12 punts. The Saints returned 12. Chiefs had 17 I think, and the Pats were at 23 or 25.

Even if you factor in fair catches, it's at most another return per game.

I'm not saying it's irrelevant, just that the importance is overstated. Just get me a guy who doesn't fumble and makes good decisions, that's all I want. Most of the time on a good return it seems like there's a penalty anyways, which more than negates the yards. That would be an interesting study actually. I'm too lazy right now, but maybe somebody else.

 

[GleefulGary]

I am guessing you can play this kind of statistical numbers gymnastics with WR's, RB's and even QB's and statistically try to draw a line from Point A to Point B and try to convince people "at the end of the day, it really doesn't matter". No matter how you draw it up, you are going to have a hard time convincing me that when in his prime, a guy like Devin Hester and Davis are even comparable in what they did for their perspective teams.

Davis is a one trick pony that was on IR twice last season, to make the 53 either he has to hope the Packers don't have a better option or he stays healthy and really proves himself worthy as a returner, gunner and backup WR. Part of proving himself is making the right decisions on returns, he wasn't all that good with that.

I also don't understand your posts on him. You seem to want to make the argument that punt returners aren't that important, yet you seem fine with Davis taking a roster spot just to return punts and be a gunner?

1) I never compared Hester and Davis. Hester changed how teams punted. Teams game planned for him. It's completely different.

2) I never said I wanted Davis on the roster. I'm pretty ambivalent on it, tbh.

3) I can say Davis is an excellent returner and gunner while also saying that doesn't guarantee him a roster spot. If I thought he could be healthy all year, I wouldn't really think about it though.

 

[Arod2gjdd]

Time to move on from having Davis on the roster SOLELY to return punts. Find someone else who can do the job, and just fair catch the damn thing if need be

 

[Dantés]

I mean, the Rams returned 12 punts. The Saints returned 12. Chiefs had 17 I think, and the Pats were at 23 or 25.

Even if you factor in fair catches, it's at most another return per game.

I'm not saying it's irrelevant, just that the importance is overstated. Just get me a guy who doesn't fumble and makes good decisions, that's all I want. Most of the time on a good return it seems like there's a penalty anyways, which more than negates the yards. That would be an interesting study actually. I'm too lazy right now, but maybe somebody else.

Like I say, it matters without being hugely important. But if you're talking about the 52nd or 53rd spot on the roster, why not keep someone who can help with something that matters?

 

[mradtke66]

I think you need to take a closer look at Devin Hester. He wasn't just a great punt returner. He was a decent backup WR 3,311 yds and a 13 yd ave/catch. He was also used on gadget plays on offense. He was also a pretty decent Kick returner. Sorry, but no comparison to Davis, especially in the prime of Hesters career!

See, I was trying to spark debate about him as a punt returner and what counts as "good."

I would say that you're over inflating his offensive impact. As a rusher, 36 carries in his career, 3.2 ypc average.

As a WR, I remember him being more or less forced into the offense to justify his contract--though his stats certainly are respectable.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I mean, the Rams returned 12 punts. The Saints returned 12. Chiefs had 17 I think, and the Pats were at 23 or 25.

Even if you factor in fair catches, it's at most another return per game.

I'm not saying it's irrelevant, just that the importance is overstated. Just get me a guy who doesn't fumble and makes good decisions, that's all I want. Most of the time on a good return it seems like there's a penalty anyways, which more than negates the yards. That would be an interesting study actually. I'm too lazy right now, but maybe somebody else.

1) I never compared Hester and Davis. Hester changed how teams punted. Teams game planned for him. It's completely different.

2) I never said I wanted Davis on the roster. I'm pretty ambivalent on it, tbh.

3) I can say Davis is an excellent returner and gunner while also saying that doesn't guarantee him a roster spot. If I thought he could be healthy all year, I wouldn't really think about it though.

Yeah sorry about that, I got you and someone else a bit confused with the Devin Hester thing But I think we are pretty much on the same page. Personally, I don't like seeing a roster spot given to a guy that at the end of the day is just a tick above average as a punt returner and gunner and a way below average WR. Probably could say the same thing about Long Snappers, but apparently their niche is worth the roster spot.

 

[GleefulGary]

Like I say, it matters without being hugely important. But if you're talking about the 52nd or 53rd spot on the roster, why not keep someone who can help with something that matters?

I'm totally fine with a roster spot. I just want to argue.

 

[Dantés]

I'm totally fine with a roster spot. I just want to argue.

Love you

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'm totally fine with a roster spot. I just want to argue.

Love you

Get a room already you two!

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[Pokerbrat2000]

See, I was trying to spark debate about him as a punt returner and what counts as "good."

I would say that you're over inflating his offensive impact. As a rusher, 36 carries in his career, 3.2 ypc average.

As a WR, I remember him being more or less forced into the offense to justify his contract--though his stats certainly are respectable.

I wasn't trying to inflate his rushing stats, just was pointing out that he wasn't a one trick pony. Even when they lined him up as a WR, nobody knew what he was going to do. His stats as a part time WR were actually pretty impressive, he even played on defensive if my memory serves me correct. But yes, his #1 job was as a Punt and kickoff return man. Someone else mentioned it earlier, Devin Hester always had to be accounted for by the opposing team, to me that is a weapon. I don't see that with Davis.

 

[elcid]

Didn't take the Packers long to give Clay's Number away! Or Wilkerson's.

Rashan Gary: 52
Darnell Savage: 26
Elgton Jenkins: 74
Jace Sternberger: 87
Kingsley Keke: 96
Ka’dar Hollman: 29
Dexter Williams: 22
Ty Summers: 44

"Double Deuce Juice is on the loose!"

Am I the only Packer fan who is utterly disappointed that Savage won't be wearing #21?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Am I the only Packer fan who is utterly disappointed that Savage won't be wearing #21?

I think that Jersey needs to hang out in the fresh air for awhile to get all the stank out of it.

 

[Dantés]

Looks like Savage used to wear #26 at Maryland before switching to #4.

I know a lot of college programs will reserve single digits for their best leaders/players. Not sure if that's a tradition for the Terps. Could potentially explain why he switched.