Early 53 Man Roster Projection

[tynimiller]

I agree. He's good but not $20 mil AAV good, at least not yet. But how do the Packers decide if Morgan can be a long-term starter at LT? Morgan seems pretty versatile and so makes a good depth player. Just disappointing for a rd 1 pick. But in fairness, his first year was marred with injury so it was really a redshirt year.

Sorry I disagree - Rasheed Walker is absolutely $20M/Yr good, the league defends this concept. Only way he doesn't is if this year he isn't our starting LT like he has been two years...if not his value will drop some.

 

[Voyageur]

Sorry I disagree - Rasheed Walker is absolutely $20M/Yr good, the league defends this concept. Only way he doesn't is if this year he isn't our starting LT like he has been two years...if not his value will drop some.

He may be that good to some teams but not for the Packers who need someone who can actually block effectively for our running game. Walker continuously graded out as average at best in this department and has never been in the elite status in any facet of grading.

I realize that the grading system has some weaknesses, but the reality is, to be a $20 mill LT you need to be in the elite 3 or 4, not ranked somewhere around 13 or 14 which is pretty much in the middle.

What we need to understand is that if either Belton or Morgan could break into the top 15 or 16 next year, there would be absolutely no sense in giving Walker that kind of money, because you'd have younger developing talent on a first contract who are contributing at just about the level Walker has, and would have growth left in their quality of play.

Somewhere along the line you need to decide that money thrown at a position for little to no gain in quality is wasted money. You need that cap space to fill those spots that are really weakened because of the salary cap. Quite frankly, I don't think throwing that much money at Wallace is a wise decision.

But, in the end, it will be Gutekunst who makes that decision and I think he'll decide wisely for the future of the team.

But this is just my opinion.

 

[OldSchool101]

I don't quite get the drafting of Morgan in rd 1 last year. He was clearly a LT when the team already had a decent LT. Given the lack of playing time, it's impossible to say how good Morgan could be. The rest of the line is pretty-well filled in, so G, C seem unlikely, and RT will hopefully be locked down soon for Tom. What to do with Morgan?

So from my understanding Walker wasn’t going to compete with Morgan immediately but they wanted someone on board for a season first. Almost universally the scouting community said Morgan is Probowl level Guard near immediately. I think it’s expecting too much to push someone to Blindside Day 1. The thinking being have our successor in house with ability to be a contingency plan, but get an upgrade at Guard in the meantime.

The other thing I’ll say is we’re kinda spoilers having so many options at Tackle. We have like 5 guys with significant Tackle experience, I might be low on that number actually. I’m going 6 guys. Now not all have the ideal measurables to lineup with Max Crosby and hold up either. So some you reduce inside but I bet they could still play the Tackle position in a pinch.

We hit a home run with Walker. It’s rare you get this level of play in back of RD7

 

[tynimiller]

He may be that good to some teams but not for the Packers who need someone who can actually block effectively for our running game. Walker continuously graded out as average at best in this department and has never been in the elite status in any facet of grading.

I realize that the grading system has some weaknesses, but the reality is, to be a $20 mill LT you need to be in the elite 3 or 4, not ranked somewhere around 13 or 14 which is pretty much in the middle.

What we need to understand is that if either Belton or Morgan could break into the top 15 or 16 next year, there would be absolutely no sense in giving Walker that kind of money, because you'd have younger developing talent on a first contract who are contributing at just about the level Walker has, and would have growth left in their quality of play.

Somewhere along the line you need to decide that money thrown at a position for little to no gain in quality is wasted money. You need that cap space to fill those spots that are really weakened because of the salary cap. Quite frankly, I don't think throwing that much money at Wallace is a wise decision.

But, in the end, it will be Gutekunst who makes that decision and I think he'll decide wisely for the future of the team.

But this is just my opinion.

I didn't state he is worth that to the Packers, I was stating he is worth that based on the league - as you know I've proposed he is perfect for trade bait this year even.

 

[OldSchool101]

I didn't state he is worth that to the Packers, I was stating he is worth that based on the league - as you know I've proposed he is perfect for trade bait this year even.

Oh I don’t doubt that at all. Really $20mil yearly at LT won’t be top $$ very long. The scale keeps appreciating and compounding. Look at what QB’s made 15 years ago. Or look at what Edge made 10 years ago it’s getting ridiculous level pay.
Someone else says it. I wish teachers would get the same increase that these guys get (in a smaller scale)

 

[Voyageur]

I didn't state he is worth that to the Packers, I was stating he is worth that based on the league - as you know I've proposed he is perfect for trade bait this year even.

Wasn't referring to you saying he was. I was referring to other teams who will jump at a chance to grab him.

 

[Voyageur]

Oh I don’t doubt that at all. Really $20mil yearly at LT won’t be top $$ very long. The scale keeps appreciating and compounding. Look at what QB’s made 15 years ago. Or look at what Edge made 10 years ago it’s getting ridiculous level pay.
Someone else says it. I wish teachers would get the same increase that these guys get (in a smaller scale)

Teachers are some of the most forgotten heroes of our world.

 

[gopkrs]

A lot of assumptions that one of our two high draft picks is a good L tackle. I sure hope so but don't know that yet.

 

[OldSchool101]

A lot of assumptions that one of our two high draft picks is a good L tackle. I sure hope so but don't know that yet.

I’m going off our typical hit rate. In that top 2 rounds we typically have 50/50 type odds at OT imo. Actually we’re not to shabby in Day 3 OL. I’d call it closer to 1 in 3 hit rate on starters across the OL

The other thing GB doesn’t get enough credit is for their success in bringing in and helping along at OT. We’re probably one of the best destinations as far as draft and develop.

LT Since the 2000 season we’ve had
Chad Clifton RD2
Marshall Newhouse RD5 (2 seasons)
David Bakhtiari RD4
Elgton Jenkins RD2 (1 season)
Rasheed Walker RD7

Could’ve done worse over 24 seasons. I don’t think it’s a far cry to say our RD1 or RD2 selections across 2024-2025 should produce 1 good LT. It’s almost an expectation in GB.

 

[gopkrs]

Yeah. I would hope so. Just don't know yet. But I do know that I have at least a good pass protector at L tackle now.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Morgan was drafted for his four position versatility and capability. He was splitting time as a starter at RG out of the gate and if he had not been injured Sean Rhyan would have been riding pine. I think the keeper of where Morgan plays in the future has more to do with where the team figures Belton will end up...if Belton projects as the RG Morgan will be our LT of future...if Belton can go tackle Morgan goes RG and maybe Tom slides over to LT and Belton RT or Belton just goes LT after Walker leaves.

Those are all interesting possibilities. And I know it's Gluten's draft MO with O linemen to take guys who can play T and G on either side. I just hope that Morgan lives up to first round status and becomes a fixture somewhere on the OL.

You mention the possibility of Tom playing LT. He is certainly a very talented and imo underrated lineman. What kind of adjustment would that be for him? Sort of a rhetorical question as we can't really answer now. Just wondering what others think. Thanks.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Yeah. I would hope so. Just don't know yet. But I do know that I have at least a good pass protector at L tackle now.

That's what makes Walkers situation. so difficult. He is a good pass protector on Love's blind side, and arguably plays the most important OL position for a right-handed QB.

I hope Morgan finds a home on the line and Walker takes another step up. That would solve two problems, although Walker will be expensive next year.

 

[tynimiller]

Those are all interesting possibilities. And I know it's Gluten's draft MO with O linemen to take guys who can play T and G on either side. I just hope that Morgan lives up to first round status and becomes a fixture somewhere on the OL.

You mention the possibility of Tom playing LT. He is certainly a very talented and imo underrated lineman. What kind of adjustment would that be for him? Sort of a rhetorical question as we can't really answer now. Just wondering what others think. Thanks.

He’s done it before for us, and I actually believe he might be the only OL on roster to take regular season snaps at all five spots.

Anymore with the pass rushers in the NFL the importance of RT is not diminished and to many equal now to LT - I don’t envision them moving him unless it is due to say Belton really seeming to shine at RT given footwork and technique is better on that side and Tom can slide to LT.

 

[tynimiller]

A lot of assumptions that one of our two high draft picks is a good L tackle. I sure hope so but don't know that yet.

For sure no one knows 100% and even if one does prove capable what the future holds no one knows...however, the tendency seen in Green Bay for a VERY LONG time is their prolific ability to identify high quality OL and even develop as well.

While both Morgan and Belton may not become two contract Packers and starting at a Tackle position, the odds on bet would be to say one of them does....or I'd say WORST case one is a long term guard for us (likely RG with Brooks like getting LG nod).

Packers history selected OL types high in the draft:
2006 - Daryn Colledge in the 2nd, solid pick who started every game he was active for us for 5 years and Arizona 3 years and even Miami his final year.
2008 - Nothing till Day 3 but solid pick in Josh Sitton in the 4th
2009 - Nothing till Day3 but solid pick in TJ Lang in the 4th
2010 - Bulaga first round - dynamite pick!
2011 - Sherrod, INJURY stole him. Not fair to critique him or the pick - everyone knew he belonged.
2013 - None taken till Day 3 and Bakhtiari in the 4th...DYNAMITE pick
2016 - Spriggs, which is the only bust of highly drafted OL arguably IMO in the past two decades
2019 - Jenkins was picked in the second but wasn't a "pure tackle type" being listed as a center on many boards
2021 - Josh Myers in the second - we got average starting play out of him and teams without a succession plan likely would have signed him back for another year. Not a bust but to me the only other arguably "not great" pick of OL high in the draft.
2022 - Rhyan in the third, he's proven to be a capable starter - not an amazing pick but far from bad. Tom in the 4th and Walker in the 7th


Bottomline if the Packers pick you Day1 or Day2 and you're an offensive lineman - odds makers would say you're at minimum going to be a starter in the league for awhile...even if they pick you in the fourth it seems that way....some fourth/fifth rounders I didn't even mention above - Spitz, Barbre, Newhouse, Tretter, Linsley, Newman...

 

[Heyjoe4]

He’s done it before for us, and I actually believe he might be the only OL on roster to take regular season snaps at all five spots.

Anymore with the pass rushers in the NFL the importance of RT is not diminished and to many equal now to LT - I don’t envision them moving him unless it is due to say Belton really seeming to shine at RT given footwork and technique is better on that side and Tom can slide to LT.

Very interesting. Thanks. Credit to Gluten for prioritizing great athletes with the ability to play across the line.

 

[Heyjoe4]

For sure no one knows 100% and even if one does prove capable what the future holds no one knows...however, the tendency seen in Green Bay for a VERY LONG time is their prolific ability to identify high quality OL and even develop as well.

While both Morgan and Belton may not become two contract Packers and starting at a Tackle position, the odds on bet would be to say one of them does....or I'd say WORST case one is a long term guard for us (likely RG with Brooks like getting LG nod).

Packers history selected OL types high in the draft:
2006 - Daryn Colledge in the 2nd, solid pick who started every game he was active for us for 5 years and Arizona 3 years and even Miami his final year.
2008 - Nothing till Day 3 but solid pick in Josh Sitton in the 4th
2009 - Nothing till Day3 but solid pick in TJ Lang in the 4th
2010 - Bulaga first round - dynamite pick!
2011 - Sherrod, INJURY stole him. Not fair to critique him or the pick - everyone knew he belonged.
2013 - None taken till Day 3 and Bakhtiari in the 4th...DYNAMITE pick
2016 - Spriggs, which is the only bust of highly drafted OL arguably IMO in the past two decades
2019 - Jenkins was picked in the second but wasn't a "pure tackle type" being listed as a center on many boards
2021 - Josh Myers in the second - we got average starting play out of him and teams without a succession plan likely would have signed him back for another year. Not a bust but to me the only other arguably "not great" pick of OL high in the draft.
2022 - Rhyan in the third, he's proven to be a capable starter - not an amazing pick but far from bad. Tom in the 4th and Walker in the 7th


Bottomline if the Packers pick you Day1 or Day2 and you're an offensive lineman - odds makers would say you're at minimum going to be a starter in the league for awhile...even if they pick you in the fourth it seems that way....some fourth/fifth rounders I didn't even mention above - Spitz, Barbre, Newhouse, Tretter, Linsley, Newman...

Thanks for the easy-to-read timeline.

When GB drafted Meyers in 2021 was Creed Humphrey available? I think so, and it's easy to look back now and say Meyers was the wrong pick. But that's unfair and Gluten has done a marvelous job of extending the GB tradition of solid OL play.

But looking down your list, so many truly great O linemen were taken in the 3rd and 4th rounds. What year was Bahktiari drafted? I'm pretty sure he was taken in round 4. It's also a credit to the coaches who put all these OLs together.

 

[OldSchool101]

good points. I forgot about Spriggs. If memory serves we traded up to get him. That kinda hurts because it cost 2 draft picks.

My thoughts on Morgan. Many in the scouting community said he’d began ok tackle (projection) but when they talk about moving to Guard they make him sound like a Prowbowl level type. It’s a shame we didn’t get to see that in 2024. I think at worst we’ve got a + Starter at Guard between the two and a Swing Tackle. That’s floor area imo.

On Belton. He’s kind of a beast. He just steered opponents into the dirt and I mean literally tossed them and then sat on them. I’m not kidding he completely removed his opponent so dominantly this didn’t dare try to pick a fight when they got up on the film.

Belton is not just big, he’s pretty athletic for extra big man. I think he’s likely an average Guard worst case along the lines of Rhyan. Yet imo that’s his floor I think he’d got better position flexibility than Rhyan due to length without lost quickness. My only concern is when he tackles his opponent will that get flagged in the NFL? He ragdolls guys regularly he’s farm strong, he uses their shoulder pads like a steering wheel and does this wresting takedown.. andvrhen gives them the full weight of his forearm after they’re dismantled
It’s fun to watch but this isn’t 1975 anymore. Benton is kinda mean like Quay. Lol

 

[tynimiller]

Thanks for the easy-to-read timeline.

When GB drafted Meyers in 2021 was Creed Humphrey available? I think so, and it's easy to look back now and say Meyers was the wrong pick. But that's unfair and Gluten has done a marvelous job of extending the GB tradition of solid OL play.

But looking down your list, so many truly great O linemen were taken in the 3rd and 4th rounds. What year was Bahktiari drafted? I'm pretty sure he was taken in round 4. It's also a credit to the coaches who put all these OLs together.

Bakh is there in 2013 on the list.

 

[tynimiller]

good points. I forgot about Spriggs. If memory serves we traded up to get him. That kinda hurts because it cost 2 draft picks.

My thoughts on Morgan. Many in the scouting community said he’d began ok tackle (projection) but when they talk about moving to Guard they make him sound like a Prowbowl level type. It’s a shame we didn’t get to see that in 2024. I think at worst we’ve got a + Starter at Guard between the two and a Swing Tackle. That’s floor area imo.

On Belton. He’s kind of a beast. He just steered opponents into the dirt and I mean literally tossed them and then sat on them. I’m not kidding he completely removed his opponent so dominantly this didn’t dare try to pick a fight when they got up on the film.

Belton is not just big, he’s pretty athletic for extra big man. I think he’s likely an average Guard worst case along the lines of Rhyan. Yet imo that’s his floor I think he’d got better position flexibility than Rhyan due to length without lost quickness. My only concern is when he tackles his opponent will that get flagged in the NFL? He ragdolls guys regularly he’s farm strong, he uses their shoulder pads like a steering wheel and does this wresting takedown.. andvrhen gives them the full weight of his forearm after they’re dismantled
It’s fun to watch but this isn’t 1975 anymore. Benton is kinda mean like Quay. Lol

It is true when Belton gets his hands on people it is over BUT I actually don't see him as this every snap violent type, those are typically aggressive setters and he is a very patient pass setter and his lower half athleticism moves very well like you said - it's why he exhibited such awesome pass blocking capabilities. His strength, size and athleticism is fully capable of being a mauler, he just didn't quite exhibit that to me enough, but he is fully capable of it.

 

[OldSchool101]

It is true when Belton gets his hands on people it is over BUT I actually don't see him as this every snap violent type, those are typically aggressive setters and he is a very patient pass setter and his lower half athleticism moves very well like you said - it's why he exhibited such awesome pass blocking capabilities. His strength, size and athleticism is fully capable of being a mauler, he just didn't quite exhibit that to me enough, but he is fully capable of it.

Just wait until you meet him after bar time in a dark alley and he’s upset. You’ll change your mind. Lol

 

[Heyjoe4]

It is true when Belton gets his hands on people it is over BUT I actually don't see him as this every snap violent type, those are typically aggressive setters and he is a very patient pass setter and his lower half athleticism moves very well like you said - it's why he exhibited such awesome pass blocking capabilities. His strength, size and athleticism is fully capable of being a mauler, he just didn't quite exhibit that to me enough, but he is fully capable of it.

Thanks for the info on Belton. Well I hope he lives up to Gluten's expectations. On the surface, it doesn't look like a good-value pick. But Gluten and Company know a helluva lot more about these guys than we do. I like the changes/additions made to the OL this offseason.