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Projecting the 53 Man Roster

Discussion in 'Green Bay Packers Fan Forum' started by Dantés, Apr 29, 2019.

  1. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    It's early, but I'm hopeless.

    QB: The hope here is that they stack up the young guys and someone emerges from the pack as a clear front runner. If they end up carrying three, it's because no one differentiates themselves, or because two guys were so good that it forced the Packers' hands. I am going to project one, an I'm projecting that it's Kizer just based on tools and pedigree.
    • A. Rodgers
    • D. Kizer
    • T: 2
    • RT: 2
    RB: While there are some guys hanging on to the bottom of the roster, it seems like an easy call that this group will be Aaron, Jamaal, and Dexter unless someone gets hurt. Petals uses a fullback, and Vitale fits the mold that he likes and is already in house.
    • A. Jones
    • J. Williams
    • D. Williams
    • D. Vitale
    • T: 4
    • RT: 6
    TE: Given Petals' predilection for TE usage, I might expect them to go a little heavy at this position. Graham is locked in at this point, as is Sternberger. Lewis should be safe as he offers blocking that no one else approaches, and I would like to see Tonyan stick around and develop.
    • J. Graham
    • M. Lewis
    • J. Sternberger
    • R. Tonyan
    • T: 4
    • RT: 10
    WR: I expect at least six guys at this position. Adams is a lock, while Allison, MVS, and EQ all feel relatively safe. Trevor Davis has a strong chance just based on PR ability. Moore, Kumerow, and perhaps Lazard will likely be competing for one spot. If Moore's hands/concentration have improved, I think he's an easy favorite.
    • D. Adams
    • G. Allison
    • M. Valdes-Scantling
    • E. St. Brown
    • J. Moore
    • T. Davis
    • T: 6
    • RT: 16
    OL: My best guess at a starting unit is: Bakhtiari - Jenkins - Linsley - Turner - Bulaga. Thus those guys are safe for me. I would expect nine or ten guys to make the roster. Spriggs should be safe due to lacking OT depth. The interior depth is pretty crowded (which is great!). I am going to project Madison, Patrick, and Light to make it. It's a little bold to have Taylor getting cut, but if he's replaced as a starter it is likely because he's a poor scheme fit. And why pay a poor scheme fit a lot of money to be a backup?
    • D. Bakhtiari
    • B. Bulaga
    • J. Spriggs
    • B. Turner
    • E. Jenkins
    • C. Madison
    • C. Linsley
    • L. Patrick
    • A. Light
    • T: 9
    • RT: 25
    DL: I expect six players to be kept on the defensive line, though five would not shock me. It seems that there are six who are logically separated from the rest of the guys on the roster. Mike Daniels could be a surprise cut given how much has been invested in 3T rushers this offseason.
    • K. Clark
    • M. Daniels
    • D. Lowry
    • T. Lancaster
    • M. Adams
    • K. Keke
    • T: 6
    • RT: 31
    ED: I think five is a reasonable projection for this position, with four being locked in (The Smith's, Gary, and Fackrell). That would leave Gilbert and Donnerson fighting for one spot. I am going to guess that Donnerson gets the nod just based on his speed rush ability, which is somewhat unique to the unit.
    • Z. Smith
    • P. Smith
    • R. Gary
    • K. Fackrell
    • K. Donnerson
    • T: 5
    • RT: 36
    LB: Three or four linebackers will be kept on the roster. Martinez is a lock and Burks is close. I think Ty Summers has a good shot at being Martinez's backup. Crawford will have an uphill battle to impress the new ST coach, but if he can do that he will probably stick (he's also an emergency OLB). I think that Josh Jones will essentially be depth/competition at dime linebacker, but I will list him with the safeties.
    • B. Martinez
    • O. Burks
    • T. Summers
    • J. Crawford
    • T: 4
    • RT: 40
    CB: Given the talent glut at corner and the thinness at safety, I think they could keep as many as six corners and perhaps use some of them in safety roles when they are in dime defense.
    • J. Alexander
    • T. Williams
    • K. King
    • J. Jackson
    • T. Brown
    • K. Hollman
    • T: 6
    • RT: 46
    S: This is the position where I think we could see an addition via FA, or perhaps where a UDFA could make the roster. If they added someone else, then I think it's possible it could impact LB as more safety depth would enable Jones to slide over into more of a full-time dime LB role.
    • A. Amos
    • D. Savage
    • J. Jones
    • R. Greene
    • T: 4
    • RT: 50
    ST: I had hoped that they might find a kicker and move on from Crosby's expensive mediocrity, but that doesn't seem to have happened. They will have Sam Ficken in camp, but nothing about his resume makes me think he's going to unseat Crosby.
    • M. Crosby
    • J. Scott
    • H. Bradley
    • T: 3
    • RT: 53
     
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  2. KyraReppe5

    KyraReppe5 "We're going to relentlessly chase perfection."

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    I agree with most of this but I would add Kumerow and remove Trevor Davis. I know Davis adds return specialist ability, but the Injuries last year may hold him back.
     
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  3. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    Taylor is going to have to get beat out of a starting position, as well as the #1 backup position before I think the Packers would cut him. They already have $3.5 M invested in him (deadcap ($2.5M), roster bonus ($750K) and workout bonus ($250k). Sure cutting him saves $1.975M (if I did my math right), but you still have to pay someone to replace him and if they aren't as good as Taylor, I'm keeping him.
     
  4. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    So my question in that scenario is who's returning punts?
     
  5. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    Someone not named Trevor Davis ;)

    Sure, if he is healthy, he has shown to be a bit above average in returning kicks and playing the gunner on punts. Beyond that, he has provided basically nothing (8 catches) in 3 years.

    Kind of like Jeff Janis, if you are just a one trick pony, you better be THE best at it and Davis is not, nor do I see him becoming a quality backup WR.

    I get it, the Packers didn't draft anyone to fill the return role, but unless Davis really steps it up as a WR or breaks some returns in preseason, I don't see him being on the 53 with as many decent WR's that we have. I expect the Packers to be auditioning a number of players to take over the job.
     
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  6. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    Cutting him saves about 3M unless I'm mistaken.

    But my theory is this: if he is a poor enough scheme fit that they are replacing him with a rookie (which is my speculation, to be clear), then is he worth keeping around at that price as a poorly suited backup?

    Maybe he is OK in this offense and just barely gets beat out and still has value as a reserve. But maybe he isn't significantly better than another backup and he's let go.
     
  7. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    Unless someone can give me a name, I'm not going to be convinced.
     
  8. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    He already earned $750K of his roster bonus (on team 3rd day of new season) as well as his workout bonus of $250k. So if you add that to his guaranteed money (dead cap) of $2.5M, $3.5M is a sunk cost. His total cap hit, if kept on roster is $5.475M. So I am reading that as a net cost of $1.9775M.

    Like I said, my math might be off, but I still think given that OL depth has been an issue in the past, the Packers would be crazy to get rid of Taylor, unless he totally gets beat out by 2-3 guys and getting beat out, takes into account the fact of him possibly not being a scheme fit.
     
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2019
  9. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    Fuzzy Navel.......there is your name. Convinced now? :whistling:

    Let's just say this, it isn't Davis's job to loose, but anyone's job to win, especially with a new HC and special teams coach.

    In the end I think they end up going with the player that can also play well in a backup role on offense or defense.
     
  10. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    Ideally, that's what would happen. I just don't see the options.
     
  11. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    The difference between a bad returner and a good returner is about 4 yards. Per game, about 16-20 yards. It just doesn't matter that much.

    I'm not saying returners don't matter, but their value is diminishing.
     
  12. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    Packers not named Trevor Davis returned 26 punts for 154 yards last season (5.9 YPR), which is less than half of Davis' average. And the difference ends up being a lot bigger than just the difference between averages, because bad returners just tend to fair catch a lot more, gaining zero yards of field position. The difference between a good punt returner and a bad one is usually a lot more than 16-20 yards.

    I am not trying to say that this is a season making or breaking factor, but it does have a significant impact. And I would much rather keep Davis as the 53rd guy on the roster and have a viable PR game than keep, say, a 5th lineback or a 10th offensive lineman. Davis is going to contribute a lot more to the team than any other roster bubble guy.

    Also, the diminishing value of returners only relates to kick returners. Which is why I'm only talking about punt return skills.
     
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  13. PackFan2

    PackFan2 Cheesehead

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    I like. I would Take out Montravious adams or Lancaster and plug in a third a QB. LaFleur has mention he likes keeping 3 qbs, to save arm and reps.
     
  14. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    I gave you an agree, but with the caveat of, if you are going to keep a guy just for his punt returning skills alone, he better be damn good. While Davis had a pretty decent average, he also did what you said, "left a lot of yards on the field by making some poor decisions on fair catches or letting balls hit and roll".

    I'm all for a one trick pony like Devin Hester making a 53 man roster, but Davis is by no means close to Hester in talent IMO.
     
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  15. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    Or at least way better than anyone else on the roster? I'm not trying to found the Trevor Davis fan club over here. I wanted them to take a guy like Mecole Hardman or Diontae Johnson specifically so that keeping a guy like him would be unnecessary. Even a UDFA like Greg Dortch would have me projecting Davis' release. But they have brought in virtually zero competition for that role. So I'm projecting him to stay based on how terrible the alternatives are.

    Now of course they could still bring someone else in at some point, but until that happens...
     
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  16. PackFan2

    PackFan2 Cheesehead

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    Hester belongs in HOF. No one wanted to kick him and we all know he could take it to the house every chance he got.
    I wouldnt mind getting a Dante Hall 2.0 either lol
     
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  17. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    I was concluding the same thing about Mason Crosby, until it was just announced that Cole Tracy is being brought in for a tryout, so you never know.
     
  18. mradtke66

    mradtke66 Cheesehead

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    I think an objective assessment of kick returners is difficult. What is the talent difference between Davis and Hester? We can look and obviously say, "JUST LOOK," but his career average is lower than Davis'.

    That's an intentional sneaky argument--Hester had a couple of great years over 16 yards per return. But he also had some stinkers under 8.

    Similarly, Davis, who we can agree isn't as good as Hester, was the no. 3 in yards per return in 2017.

    In short, I'm not sure what we should do with him. I'd argue he's far above "above average," but I'm not sure he's worth the roster spot. I also don't know who would be his obvious replacement this year. We tried last year and everyone else fell on their face, which is why he stuck around like he did, bum hamstring and all.
     
  19. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    I heard that at his presser, but I thought he was referring to everything leading up to the final 53. "too many QB's is too much during camp and preseason and 3 is the right number to get reps in without burning out arms"....something like that, I could be wrong.

    Personally, I prefer 2 on the active 53 and one stashed on the PS. Seems like the 3rd QB is inactive all season anyway, might as well use that 53rd spot on a guy who will actually see playing time at some point during the season. Obviously, if you have 3 quality QB's, you probably can't slide that 3rd one safely to the PS AKA Taysom Hill. :eek:
     
  20. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    I think you need to take a closer look at Devin Hester. ;) He wasn't just a great punt returner. He was a decent backup WR 3,311 yds and a 13 yd ave/catch. He was also used on gadget plays on offense. He was also a pretty decent Kick returner. Sorry, but no comparison to Davis, especially in the prime of Hesters career!
     
  21. PackFan2

    PackFan2 Cheesehead

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    Sure, averagewise. But the thing is... Do opponents specials teams have to prep for Davis? They probably dont even care bout Davis. Majority of the punts and kicks to Hester were wobbed or crapshots for him to not return it. Like Poker said, I want someone back there and they better be damn good. I want someone back there where opponents special teams have to worry bout. Hell it dont even have be an all talent like Hester, Billy White Shoes or Brian Mitchell. Like a Ryan Switzer or Natson is fine with me, if given the chance they take it to the house.
     
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2019
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  22. PackFan2

    PackFan2 Cheesehead

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    Is it too much to ask for a DECENT return guy who has the ability take it to the house if given the chance? :( Man.. we've set our special teams standard low..
     
  23. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    Agreed and maybe now with Zook gone, we will see an improvement in a unit that has been far from special over the years.
     
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  24. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    Exactly. I am more than open to the idea that more competition could be brought in.

    But I would add this: People have a settled distaste for Davis and thus tend to balk at the idea of him being kept primarily as a punt returner. They would likely feel better about some random UDFA being kept primarily as a punt returner just because it would be someone new. But is that really any better? At least Davis has proved his PR ability at this level and has some experience with Rodgers. If you're going to keep someone to return punts, it seems unlikely that you're going to find a better option at this point in the offseason.

    But who knows? I'm not trying to rule it out. Maybe someone good will be a cut right before the season.
     
  25. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    Evidently, as the FO completely ignored returner this offseason.
     
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