Preseason Game #2: Packers at Ravens

[Mondio]

You don’t sign a QB to the richest contract in the NFL and try and try to draft his successor the following year unless you’ve made a mistake or things have gone horribly wrong.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

You don’t sign a QB to the richest contract in the NFL and try and try to draft his successor the following year unless you’ve made a mistake or things have gone horribly wrong.

Well Rodgers signed it before last season, so it would be 2 seasons after a 4 year deal that we are talking about potentially drafting his predecessor. I have always been in favor of waiting until 2021 and will continue to say that, but if he starts getting injured more, I could see that time table be shifted a year.

So no, I don't think that makes it a bad contract, especially if it takes 2-3 years to get his replacement ready.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Kizer is not much better, but he’s the best of a motley group to be the backup. And let’s face it, without #12, this is another sub 500 team. Actually, it was WITH #12.......

The Packers seem to have more talent than last season though. In addition Rodgers will hopefully stay healthy for 19 games.

Unless the Packers know something I don't, Boyle wouldn't be a loss, even if they can't stash him on the PS. About the only thing I see that you lose, his knowledge of the new offense. I'm actually more intrigued by Wilkins and his skill set, but just like Boyle, neither of them are game ready for the NFL.

Again, unless I am missing something, I would be fine with putting any young QB that the Packers are excited about on the PS as the #3. If Rodgers goes down, you sign a vet to backup Kizer. My time table for drafting Rodgers eventual replacement may have moved up a year and I could see it happening in the 2020 draft.

I agree that neither Boyle nor Wilkins are ready to play in a game and most likely won't ever improve to that level.

In my opinion 2021 is the year to start looking for Rodgers replacement in the draft, or whenever Trevor Lawrence declares for it

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

In my opinion 2021 is the year to start looking for Rodgers replacement in the draft, or whenever Trevor Lawrence declares for it

I'm on board with Trevor Lawrence and I know you and many don't like me saying this, but I would even be willing to tank some games if the 2020 season is pretty much lost, to get the #1 pick to select him. That guy looks like another generational QB, at least after his freshman year He can't declare until after his 2020 season, so yes, the 2021 draft could be something to look forward to.

 

[Mondio]

Well Rodgers signed it before last season, so it would be 2 seasons after a 4 year deal that we are talking about potentially drafting his predecessor. I have always been in favor of waiting until 2021 and will continue to say that, but if he starts getting injured more, I could see that time table be shifted a year.

So no, I don't think that makes it a bad contract, especially if it takes 2-3 years to get his replacement ready.

it was a 4 year extensions, so it was really 6 years, not 4. and to get what most people consider a "real" QB you're talking about drafting one high or getting one with Kizer like potential. and if you ask most people around here, Kizer is dogshit to them. So you're looking at likely packaging up some picks next year to move into the top 12 or higher to draft your "real" QB. With Rodgers under contract this year and the following 4 seasons. I'd say 2020 is a bit early to be drafting his replacement considering that guy would be up for a new contract before or at the same time Rodgers is ending his.

If that is your plan, you gave out a bad contract. If you don't think Rodgers is going to be productive for quite some time or your plan is to cut him in 3 years, it's a bad contract. Now the circumstances could require we do that for things we definitely don't want to happen, but that's different.

They didn't draft Rodgers as Favre's replacement after making a huge financial investment in Favre for the long term. Favre was actually nearing the end of his contract signed 4 or 5 years before Rodgers was drafted and had waffled on retirement a few times.

After the investment they made in Rodgers, they better be worried about giving him the best team to win with, not moving up to draft a replacement or back up or it was a bad contract to begin with.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

it was a 4 year extensions, so it was really 6 years, not 4. and to get what most people consider a "real" QB you're talking about drafting one high or getting one with Kizer like potential. and if you ask most people around here, Kizer is dogshit to them. So you're looking at likely packaging up some picks next year to move into the top 12 or higher to draft your "real" QB. With Rodgers under contract this year and the following 4 seasons. I'd say 2020 is a bit early to be drafting his replacement considering that guy would be up for a new contract before or at the same time Rodgers is ending his.

If that is your plan, you gave out a bad contract. If you don't think Rodgers is going to be productive for quite some time or your plan is to cut him in 3 years, it's a bad contract. Now the circumstances could require we do that for things we definitely don't want to happen, but that's different.

They didn't draft Rodgers as Favre's replacement after making a huge financial investment in Favre for the long term. Favre was actually nearing the end of his contract signed 4 or 5 years before Rodgers was drafted and had waffled on retirement a few times.

After the investment they made in Rodgers, they better be worried about giving him the best team to win with, not moving up to draft a replacement or back up or it was a bad contract to begin with.

Like I said, I was on record 2 or more years ago that drafting Rodgers replacement probably wasn't something the Packers needed to start thinking about until he is 2-3 years away from hanging them up. All I said yesterday was that given the last 2 years of him being injured, depending on how this season goes, the Packers might want to consider moving that time table of drafting his potential replacement up a year or two.

Didn't mean to get you all wound up If Rodgers can stay healthy, then yes, no need to worry about looking for Rogers 2.0 quite yet.

 

[Mondio]

not even close to wound, this is me being normal

and if Rodgers gets injured again, then we just suffer the consequences and that higher pick comes "naturally" thru a crappy season and we've used our other picks to build the best team we can around the QB. That will benefit any QB we get.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

not even close to wound, this is me being normal

and if Rodgers gets injured again, then we just suffer the consequences and that higher pick comes "naturally" thru a crappy season and we've used our other picks to build the best team we can around the QB. That will benefit any QB we get.

Pete Dougherty, a Packer beat writer just literally released an article this morning, entitled "Packers must make QB high draft priority". I won't link it, since it is a paid site, but Rodgers recent back tightness along with his last 2 years, even has Pete thinking, sooner rather than later.

Again, the draft is a long way out and IMO, the Packers have the luxury of seeing what happens with Rodgers this year. If he plays well, doesn't suffer any injuries, business as usual and you wait until 2021 to see what you need to do in the draft. I hope they can wait until the 2021 draft and by some miracle, they are able to draft Clemson's QB Trevor Lawrence. However, if Rodgers starts showing signs that he is slowing down or unable to make it through an entire season, contract or no contract, thinking about finding his future replacement, isn't out of the question.

 

[HardRightEdge]

If we felt the time was now to draft a "real" QB, we just gave out a really really bad contract.

A "real" QB in the 2020 draft would imply an expensive insurance policy to start no later than his year 3 in 2022 when Rodgers is 39 and the dead cap drops to $15.5 mil. Of course drafting a "real" QB at that time means expending a high pick at a time when the likely scenario is the Packers are still trying to get to "win now". That's a big piece of draft capital and 3 years of expended bench-sitting cap, a expensive insurance policy.

I have little doubt that Rodgers will have a franchise QB season, a top 5 QB season at a minimum, if he stays healthy. That would squelch any thought of spending that pick in that way at that time. The echo chamber chorus will then say he can play into his 40's as has been his expressed desire. If he's injured again and misses games, that's a different story.

 

[Mondio]

Pete Dougherty, a Packer beat writer just literally released an article this morning, entitled "Packers must make QB high draft priority". I won't link it, since it is a paid site, but Rodgers recent back tightness along with his last 2 years, even has Pete thinking, sooner rather than later.

Again, the draft is a long way out and IMO, the Packers have the luxury of seeing what happens with Rodgers this year. If he plays well, doesn't suffer any injuries, business as usual and you wait until 2021 to see what you need to do in the draft. I hope they can wait until the 2021 draft and by some miracle, they are able to draft Clemson's QB Trevor Lawrence. However, if Rodgers starts showing signs that he is slowing down or unable to make it through an entire season, contract or no contract, thinking about finding his future replacement, isn't out of the question.

It doesn’t matter what Pete says, if you’re already thinking replacement for Rodgers you just have out a bad contract. If back tightness gets you that concerned in the preseason that you think he’s glass and injury prone and in need of replacing what in the heck were investing 100+ million dollars in the man for?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It doesn’t matter what Pete says, if you’re already thinking replacement for Rodgers you just have out a bad contract. If back tightness gets you that concerned in the preseason that you think he’s glass and injury prone and in need of replacing what in the heck were investing 100+ million dollars in the man for?

Again, I don't think anyone is saying "we need to replace Rodgers TODAY". Nor am I saying "we NEED to draft his replacement in the 2020 draft." But it has been a known fact that Rodgers career is winding down, with no real known expiration date. The contract he signed has a much lower dead cap hit in 2022 and no dead Cap money in 2023. What that says to me is that Ball/Gute were thinking Aaron is probably going to make it through the 2021 season and then we will have a decision to make. Along with that wondering when his career is over, they have to have a contingency plan for his replacement. I think the best plan for his replacement is not drafting a QB and throwing him into the fire, but bring him along slowly, while Rodgers is still playing. How long a new QB will need is yet another unknown variable.

All that said, Rodgers could still play at a high level for 1-4 years or even more, we don't know. What we do know though is that he has sustained 2 pretty significant injuries in the last 2 season, both effecting his play and the Packer records. If that continues, grooming his successor over the next 2-3 years isn't out of the question IMO.

To answer your question of "why did we invest so much in him a year ago?" Because the Packers chose to keep a FHOF QB, despite the risks of his age. Was it the right decision? I guess we will find out, but at the time, it seemed to be to most.

 

[Mondio]

Again, I don't think anyone is saying "we need to replace Rodgers TODAY". Nor am I saying "we NEED to draft his replacement in the 2020 draft." But it has been a known fact that Rodgers career is winding down, with no real known expiration date. The contract he signed has a much lower dead cap hit in 2022 and no dead Cap money in 2023. What that says to me is that Ball/Gute were thinking Aaron is probably going to make it through the 2021 season and then we will have a decision to make. Along with that wondering when his career is over, they have to have a contingency plan for his replacement. I think the best plan for his replacement is not drafting a QB and throwing him into the fire, but bring him along slowly, while Rodgers is still playing. How long a new QB will need is yet another unknown variable.

All that said, Rodgers could still play at a high level for 1-4 years or even more, we don't know. What we do know though is that he has sustained 2 pretty significant injuries in the last 2 season, both effecting his play and the Packer records. If that continues, grooming his successor over the next 2-3 years isn't out of the question IMO.

To answer your question of "why did we invest so much in him a year ago?" Because the Packers chose to keep a FHOF QB, despite the risks of his age. Was it the right decision? I guess we will find out, but at the time, it seemed to be to most.

let's keep in mind what started with

Sooner or later Gluten needs to think about drafting a real QB. It might be 2020. A lot will depend on how #12 looks this year.

to which I responded, if you think the next draft is time to draft a "real" QB, we just gave out a bad contract.

They gave him that contract to invest in him and clearly they think he can win for us for a number of years. They've made their bed, Rodgers is their man and they're going to go "all in" on putting a good team around him, not jump ship after a year and try and move up to draft his replacement, which is what it would take to get a "real" qb in the draft. unless they draft people like Kizer or worse and hope for the best which I gather is what people are getting at.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

let's keep in mind what started with to which I responded, if you think the next draft is time to draft a "real" QB, we just gave out a bad contract.

They gave him that contract to invest in him and clearly they think he can win for us for a number of years. They've made their bed, Rodgers is their man and they're going to go "all in" on putting a good team around him, not jump ship after a year and try and move up to draft his replacement, which is what it would take to get a "real" qb in the draft. unless they draft people like Kizer or worse and hope for the best which I gather is what people are getting at.

Yeah, I think we are "arguing" over something someone else said. I for one have been preaching that Rodgers is THE man and you don't draft a QB to replace him, until it appears he is 2-3 years away from being done. Think if I look back, up until recently, I was saying draft his future replacement in 2021 or 22. All my latest comments were basically saying that the time frame might get bumped up IF Rodgers health becomes an ongoing issue.

But if Rodgers retired today due to a health issue, that doesn't make the decision to resign him a bad one at the time, it just makes it a decision that didn't turn out as expected. You and I both don't like using hind site for evaluating decisions that were made without the benefit of it, but I think both of us are aware that in the NFL, nothing is ever certain.

 

[Mondio]

You're right, I wouldn't think it was bad. Just saying IF one's opinion is we need to draft his replacement or invest heavily to get a back up at this point, then GB shouldn't have signed him to anything and just let him play out, franchise him and move on when time. That is not my opinion however.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

You're right, I wouldn't think it was bad. Just saying IF one's opinion is we need to draft his replacement or invest heavily to get a back up at this point, then GB shouldn't have signed him to anything and just let him play out, franchise him and move on when time. That is not my opinion however.

Well those neigh-sayers did exist over a year ago and they are just going to get louder if things don't go as most of us expected. Hopefully, next pre-draft period we will be talking about if 2021 is too early to draft the next king to the throw(n).

 

[HardRightEdge]

Well those neigh-sayers did exist over a year ago and they are just going to get louder if things don't go as most of us expected. Hopefully, next pre-draft period we will be talking about if 2021 is too early to draft the next king to the throw(n).

Those talking horses are not qualfied to render an opinion.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Those talking horses are not qualfied to render an opinion.

Jeesh, I missed that, I figured you would get me for misspelling "throne"

But yeah those qual's should be fied for thinking such a thing!

 

[rmontro]

Pete Dougherty, a Packer beat writer just literally released an article this morning, entitled "Packers must make QB high draft priority". I won't link it, since it is a paid site, but Rodgers recent back tightness along with his last 2 years, even has Pete thinking, sooner rather than later.

I know I, at least, was hoping that the fact that Rodgers mostly sat his first three years might buy him a few extra years. A little less wear and tear, you know. At this point it isn't really looking that way, unfortunately, but you never know.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I'm on board with Trevor Lawrence and I know you and many don't like me saying this, but I would even be willing to tank some games if the 2020 season is pretty much lost, to get the #1 pick to select him. That guy looks like another generational QB, at least after his freshman year He can't declare until after his 2020 season, so yes, the 2021 draft could be something to look forward to.

2020 might present the best chance for the Packers to win another Super Bowl. Tanking for Lawrence should definitely not be in the books.

Pete Dougherty, a Packer beat writer just literally released an article this morning, entitled "Packers must make QB high draft priority". I won't link it, since it is a paid site, but Rodgers recent back tightness along with his last 2 years, even has Pete thinking, sooner rather than later.

In my opinion Dougherty is overreacting to Rodgers having tightness in his back. You have to consider that if the Packers draft his successor next year they're headed for another ugly QB controversy down the road.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

2020 might present the best chance for the Packers to win another Super Bowl. Tanking for Lawrence should definitely not be in the books.



In my opinion Dougherty is overreacting to Rodgers having tightness in his back. You have to consider that if the Packers draft his successor next year they're headed for another ugly QB controversy down the road.

Like I said to Mondio, I don't think it's over reacting to have a conversation as to "When do you draft #12's successor?". While I agree that it shouldn't be done too early, I also wouldn't want to see it attempted too late. I also think, just like Rodgers back in 2005, if the opportunity presents itself, the Packers might take it from any future draft forward. A lot will depend on Rodgers staying healthy and continuing to perform at a high level. If he has a pretty much injury free and productive 2019, that will squash a lot of the chatter, but won't eliminate the need to still be thinking about his eventual replacement.

I'll opt to not have a "discussion" on "tanking a lost season in order to draft Lawrence" in 2020.

 

[Mondio]

hey, if we want to have this conversation when Rodgers has 2 years left on his contract, go for it. they didn't sign Rodgers a season after or 2 seasons after inking Favre to a 6 year contract. These next 3 seasons are all Rodgers and building a team around him. That will benefit the now and the later. Thinking of singing a guy now to sit for 3 or 4 years? He'll be up for a contract by the time he's supposed to take over. if he's any good, we're paying huge amounts to a QB again or losing him.

The only thing that makes this a discussion is if the unthinkable happens between now and then and i'm not mentioning anything like that.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

hey, if we want to have this conversation when Rodgers has 2 years left on his contract, go for it. they didn't sign Rodgers a season after or 2 seasons after inking Favre to a 6 year contract. These next 3 seasons are all Rodgers and building a team around him. That will benefit the now and the later. Thinking of singing a guy now to sit for 3 or 4 years? He'll be up for a contract by the time he's supposed to take over. if he's any good, we're paying huge amounts to a QB again or losing him.

The only thing that makes this a discussion is if the unthinkable happens between now and then and i'm not mentioning anything like that.

LOL. There are 3 years left on his contract where financially it would not make any sense to try and replace him. Right now, the Packers have not taken any steps to do that very thing, so after this season, 2 years (seasons) will still be Rodgers at QB. After the 2021 season, parting ways isn't that far fetched if injuries have taken their toll. So if the opportunity arises in one of the next 3 drafts and the need to do it is becomes more and more eminent, then do it.

This isn't me saying "we need his replacement in Green Bay RIGHT NOW". It is me saying that the window is slowly opening and it may open gradually or really fast, we only know that its going to open sooner (1-5 years) than later. Now you may want to keep the blinds down and ignore the window, but if I was Gute and the Packers I would have a close eye on that window and at least start thinking about all the options and what ifs.

 

[Mondio]

The Blinds are shut. They made their bed and must lay in it. They invested in Rodgers, they have a team to finish building around him. Spending picks to move up in a draft to get a "real QB" goes against everything they've just done. The next 3 years all all about Rodgers and him leading this team. Not finding a back up or replacement.

Favre could have been cut the day Rodgers was drafted and practically been a cap savings. Completely different situation. We traded him with about 1 million dollar dead cap we'd have over 20 cutting Rodgers when you think it's feasible to do so. May be necessary, but i'm sure the least desirable situation by every side, GM, Player, and fans.

 

[OldSchool101]

If the Packers truly see some potential in Boyle and there are no other QB's out there that could be better in the Packers opinion, I would be fine with him being on the PS, where he will continue to work and be of the most value to the Packers for the future. However, I don't think he is ready to actually play in regular season games, so no need to use a roster spot on him, IMO.

I like the idea of PS. I think it’s important to have that 3rd guy in the shadows. Guys get hurt in preseason, practice, workouts (or driving to fast)
We can’t even 100% rely on the #2 to stay fully healthy. We also just witnessed Rodgers getting knocked out 1st half of 1st game.
Plus, I highly doubt anyone signs Tim Boyle to an active roster. We need someone who can give us a chance to go .500 on short notice. We may just finally have a D good enough to pull out those close games.
It’s better to have it and not need it..etc..

 

[OldSchool101]

Spending picks to move up in a draft to get a "real QB" goes against everything they've just done. The next 3 years all all about Rodgers and him leading this team. Not finding a back up or replacement.

Hmmm. My response is this.. how has that worked out? (That’s a rhetorical ?)

You ALWAYS have a strong contingency at backup QB. Especially in contemporary football where the injury protocols keep players out for lengthy terms.

BTW? We also saw the exact reverse effects of what you are implying in the success of backup QBs who carried teams well into the playoffs. This isn’t a big secret. You never go in with blinders on and you always have a backup plan. That’s at any position too, but especially the QB position.

Now we can certainly argue about the resources or capital used to secure a contingency plan, but not one team in this league is thinking they don’t care about a backup QB or they’ll just call it a season if the #1 goes down. Conversely, they each are desperately trying to evaluate the best option at #2-#3 QB to position themselves to keep Winning. Furthermore, teams with great QBs are constantly attempting to draft the very best insurance they can and you see this around the league each draft. Remember too, Brady was a 6th round pick.. can you imagine had NE ignored that philosophy?