Preseason Game 1 Packers vs Jets Game Thread

[OldSchool101]

amen.

All the hype about “The Packers are the youngest team in the NFL” isn’t to brag about how good they are. Quite the opposite. It’s to reflect on why they might have some ups n downs or struggles as they find their way.

The advantage of “youngest” is that pound for pound across a Roster the GB Packers are easily towards the Top of NFL when it comes to growth potential. Players like Cooper that excel as Rookies are an anomoly. As mentioned, the bulk of players won’t see NFL ready until about the middle of year 3 to early Year 4 (as a Starter) Yes this includes Jordan Love.

With QB, it’s such a cerebral position that it often takes longer. We Witnessed that last year with Sam Darnold. What an incredible year he had. He was drafted in 2018. His best 3 seasons of QB ratings?
2022,2023,2024 (5th,6th,7th seasons)

Nobody is suggesting it’s a perfect science. Nobody no’s implying Jordan needs 7 years. What I am saying is that Love’s first 3 years of training simply balanced out his massive inexperience when drafted. Just 2.5 years as a starter and as a College Junior he didn’t even get 3 seasons. Think about that when you consider 2023. No wonder he took 1/2 season!

GB has a plethora of players in their 3rd/4th seasons now. It’s inevitable that 1 or more of just that group show a noticeable spike in production. You hope it’s QB, but it could be WR, TE, OL, DT, CB etc.

 

[OldSchool101]

Right now the early signs point to projection spikes with
Wooden
Van Ness
Love

I’d submit that if ANY 2 of Wooden or Love or Van Ness look noticeably better come Regular season? This team will tough to contend with. 75% of the players we watch in preseason won’t even be here. I be offer that because it’s either a position of greatest impact or position of greatest need over 2024.

What I like about the Packers and what I’ve been saying all along is that the last 2-3 drafts include an increased count of Day1,2 types at positions due to trade equity received from Davante, Rodgers, Rasul. Those Top 100 College drafted players net a higher % of ceiling success than Day 3 projects. Not saying some won’t be missed but when we Draft enough (5) Day1-2 in one single draft? Probability says 3 will likely hit.
Lloyd, Hopper, Musgrave, Cooper, Bullard, Van Ness, Morgan.. and yes Golden are in a group poised to be at minimum substantial added depth and hopefully beyond that or give us increased value as a starter over 2024.

 

[OldSchool101]

If my draft of FA acquisition math serves me correctly. Chicago will similarly be really strong by 2026 because they threw a TON of resources at the Roster.
Joe Thuney
Dayo Odeyingbo
Grady Jarrett
Drew Dalman
Jonah Jackson
Demarcus Walker
Coleman Shelton
Gerald Everette

That’s like us adding 8 FA’s averaging $12mil yearly each.

$95,000,000 in FA average salaries added for 2025 alone.

Then recently Drafting

Coleston Loveland
Luther Burden
Shemar Turner
Ozzy Trapilo
Rome Odunze

 

[milani]

TLDR: Lukas van Ness rocks. All hail LVN.

You've been warned.


This is very important, and I think a lot of people overlook it.

The kid was drafted as a 21-year old sophomore. 10 or 15 years ago, when it was much more common for players to enter the draft after completing their senior season, 2025 would be LVN's rookie NFL season. Yeah, his first year or two, he clearly needed more development - and in the days of yore, he'd have gotten that development in college, and would right now be coming into his first NFL training camp with a lot more experience under his belt than he had two years ago.

When Gute drafted him, he took a big chance. LVN had not only played just 2 seasons of college ball; he only played 2 years of varsity football in high school - his favorite sport was hockey, but his mother insisted he play football too so that he could get a more complete high school experience and make a wider range of friends. Thank god he was a good boy, who listened to his mother.

But Gute saw the ceiling, pushed his whole stack of chips into the middle of the table, and bet on LVN's potential.

This looks to me like excellent scouting. I think the Packers studied his backstory thoroughly; traced his development through all 4 years of organized, competitive football (from his junior season in high school through his sophomore season at Iowa), and realized that the trendline was consistently angling sharply towards the top right corner.

Tyni, I think this is something you are aware of and constantly keep in mind when talking about Lukas, and I'm pretty confident that Voyageur is very aware of it as well, because of his confidence in what LVN is bringing to the table this year. But I think a lot of fans don't really understand this, and look at him solely through the "yeah but what has he done for us lately" lens. Which is somewhat understandable; you draft a guy at #13, it's reasonable to expect a Year 1 impact.

And I'll admit, there were times in 24 where i sometimes had some doubts. But I always saw somethng special in Lukas, and had faith (or sometimes just hopes) that he was going to blossom.

And it looks like we are finally seeing that.

My wife and I work online 10, 12, 14 hours a day sometimes; she has 5 LLC corporations, and between the two of us, we do contract work on numerous projects in IT, AI, and various other fields. It bores the **** out of me, so I put on headphones and listen to Pink Floyd or the Beatles, plus podcasts on science, history, etc., and... Packers. I spend 3, 5, maybe even 6 or 8 hours a day listening to Packers podcasts every single day, and when the subject is defense, I hear 4 names over and over and over again, all day long - Barryn Sorrell, Edgerrin Cooper, Nazir Stackhouse, and (more than any other with the possible exception of Cooper) Lukas van Ness.

LVN and Cooper have the podcast guys and the established reporters foaming at the mouth. People who are at camp every day are raving about him, going on and on about how he's added so many moves, tweaked his technique so much in order to play to his strengths... the "Locked on Packers" guy (can't remember his name) said the other day that van Ness seems to have figured out what it is that he's good at, and dedicated himself to making himself as good as he can possibly be within that skillset.

Another one said that when an OL stops him, it looks as though the lineman had taken a hundred snaps across from van Ness over the last few weeks, and has figured out his subtle "tells", but in league play that's not going to be common. Many of these watchers report that even when Lukas does bring a certain trademark move, the OL can't stop it because LVN just dominates the snap - even when they know what's coming, they can't stop him.

I think we have a player here. And yeah, the first couple of years were somewhat underwhelming, but it looks like he is showing up at just the right moment. And I, for one, am happy to see him.

Probably should have played one more college season. But when you get a chance....

 

[OldSchool101]

Probably should have played one more college season. But when you get a chance....

Actually I saw that several scouts recommended he return for 1 more season first. However he was a consensus Day 1, so you weigh the financial aspects of that I suppose.

My favorite play by Lukas was as a Rookie in Regular season when he chased Justin Fields to the sideline and surprised Fields with his pursuit speed Then just slung him down for a substantial loss. Sorry for your Luck Justin! Van Ness has 2 Sacks on Fields.

 

[OldSchool101]

Here’s a nice Breakdown of how we were starting to see more of Van Ness impacting throws that don’t necessarily show up on a Stat sheet. This is against one of the better Offenses in thr NFL in his Rookie season.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[Heyjoe4]

From the start, a few of us knew Van Ness had the tools to be a solid player it was just going to take time for him to reach a point where his body and game came up to the level that he could compete in the NFL. He only had 4 years of football and 2 of those in college. He was going to be raw around the edges and it would take time to smooth things out and help him find his role in the game. Making the call by drafting him, like Gute did, shows just how much he and his cadre of scouts and evaluators work at their jobs to ensure they are actually seeing the potential for the future.

To me, and I've always said this, you cannot judge a draft class until two and sometimes three years after you make the picks. Even then, you need to realize that some of the picks might not be what you felt fits the needs now, but they did in the eyes of the drafters at the time the picks were made.

I have a hunch that Stackhouse, Sorrell, LVN, and Cooper are going to be turning some heads before this season is over, and for all four, they haven't even started to reach the potential that's out there for each of them. Enjoy the ride, it might be a bit bumpy this year but it promises to be even better next year, even though there will be a lot of new faces replacing those leaving as FAs.

A lot of people who evaluate players have criticized LVN's lack of bend at the hips. Has that improved so far this year?

What I observed over his first two years was that he has a lot of trouble rushing from the outside. Even pedestrian Ts would stand him up and push him away from and behind the QB.

IMO for LVN to be successful at Edge, he'll have to dramatically improve from his first two years.

I'd like to see him become a dominant Edge player who can get to the QB from the outside and on stunts to the inside. Still not sure he's there yet.

 

[Magooch]

Well, I sure hope all the good buzz out of camp is true!

Maybe I am grading a bit more harshly than most but I wouldn't look back on the past couple of seasons and say that he looked like a player on the cusp of breaking out or average with huge potential or whatnot. For large swaths of his time here to my eye he has looked downright bad unfortunately.

(For those who care, PFF for last season had him ranked 162nd out of 211 qualifying EDGE players - 74th in pass rush and 193rd in run defense; His overall grade was in the low-60s as a rookie and dropped to the low-50s last year*)

Now obviously I am hoping for the best and that he lives up to his potential with us. But at the moment - and maybe others view his time with us thus far a bit rosier than I do - I feel like he is going to need to take a big step forward in his development to get to the point where he's a "plus starter" for us, let alone a great or "elite" (our favorite buzzword lately ) player for us. But, hey, stranger things have happened. Gary didn't really do much till Year Three either, some players are later bloomers....Hope springs eternal of course. I am hearing a ton of positive talk about Coach Covington. Maybe he is the guy who really unlocks him. Fingers crossed!!

(I also hope it's that he's having a good camp all around and not just bullying Jordan Morgan. Not sure who that would be better/worse for )

Spoiler

*LVN's overall PFF grade of 53.8 last season was the worst grade in the last decade for a top-16 EDGE player in their second year.

 

[OldSchool101]

Well, I sure hope all the good buzz out of camp is true!

Maybe I am grading a bit more harshly than most but I wouldn't look back on the past couple of seasons and say that he looked like a player on the cusp of breaking out or average with huge potential or whatnot. For large swaths of his time here to my eye he has looked downright bad unfortunately.

(For those who care, PFF for last season had him ranked 162nd out of 211 qualifying EDGE players - 74th in pass rush and 193rd in run defense; His overall grade was in the low-60s as a rookie and dropped to the low-50s last year*)

Now obviously I am hoping for the best and that he lives up to his potential with us. But at the moment - and maybe others view his time with us thus far a bit rosier than I do - I feel like he is going to need to take a big step forward in his development to get to the point where he's a "plus starter" for us, let alone a great or "elite" (our favorite buzzword lately ) player for us. But, hey, stranger things have happened. Gary didn't really do much till Year Three either, some players are later bloomers....Hope springs eternal of course. I am hearing a ton of positive talk about Coach Covington. Maybe he is the guy who really unlocks him. Fingers crossed!!

(I also hope it's that he's having a good camp all around and not just bullying Jordan Morgan. Not sure who that would be better/worse for )

Spoiler

*LVN's overall PFF grade of 53.8 last season was the worst grade in the last decade for a top-16 EDGE player in their second year.

I gave you a like because it is factual he hadn’t played well for much of last season. Although on the flip side, the bulk of his disruption came after Week 11 when the Cast came off. I don’t think it’s coincidence there. Lukas had mostly bounced around. From DT in 2021 at Iowa to DE in 2022, then with GB to 3-4 OLB in 2023 and then revert to a 4-3 DE in 2024. That’s a ton of gyrating around, maybe too much movement. In all that circulation though he’s developing skill across multiple positions. Now this is really the only time he’s stayed in the same 4-3 scheme and similar role in consecutive seasons. Covington will highly likely help him take another step this season. Also Lukas snap count will
Increase and that will speed up his development during the 2025 season.

I think this will be a fun year to watch Lukas. It’s really the first time I think we see him closer to Rashan Gary numbers of snaps 50-60% instead of 39% (2024) That along with increased mobility of using both arms and we should see a more accurate depiction of who he can become.

 

[lambeaulambo]

Its on the NFL Network.

after watching that trash can it shouldnt have been...LOL

 

[Krabs]

I happened upon free tickets to this game. I took my son, daughter and son in law. We did the standard tailgating, which is always fun. I've been to a lot of games now. Generally speaking, I catch one preseason game per year and then a few regular season. I've gotten to go to one playoff game against the Rams a few years ago. With all that said, this was by far the worst game I have ever been to. I usually don't do this, but I left at halftime and I'm glad I did. While I know this game is meaningless, and it truly is, I can't even describe how awful that game was to watch in person.