Predict the Bears season

[2411t]

So to be a good prediction it has to match closely with your personal view?
So is the glass half full or half empty? Well both actually, it's half full at the bottom and half empty at the top right? That's realistic not optimistic nor pessimistic.
By the NFL's nature it's equally true that a team can win or lose given the variables in the game. So if one predicts 4-12 it's not a huge stretch to figure they can also go 12-4.
I get what you're saying and I've gone on record saying I can't figure that team past 8-8, but any other prediction isn't "bad" or "good" by itself is it?

Predictions should throw variables out the window and go strictly by how good a team is on paper and assume that they will play up to their standards. If you can't accept this, then you are indirectly giving the "science" of football analysis zero credibility.

But I agree with much that you say. A team can easily be 4-12 and 12-4 at the same time. But some people spend a great deal of effort analyzing how well a team will due based on some kind of statistical method.

Maybe if the originally quoted prediction of 4-12 gave a detailed description/explanation as to why they thought the Bears would go 4-12, I would think differently.

EDIT: I guess what I'm essentially saying is: We all agree that Murphy's Law exists, but it shouldn't be accounted for in making well thought out predictions.