Packers vs Bears: S103,E1

[milani]

I agree.

I don't understand why they flex games, other than money

It can really screw up planning for a game in advance.

 

[Heyjoe4]

To each his own on what stats to follow, but in the YPC category, the Pack is tied (with four other teams) for 5th place.

Played with Atlanta. Destroyed us in the snow at Lambeau when Sherman was the coach. Came back with Philly after the suspension. Packers beat him twice in 2010. Our D could have used a Clay Matthews about a decade earlier. When healthy he could run down any QB.

Yep, and with the QB position evolving into bigger guys, 6'2" minimum, 220 lbs minimum, good FYD time - the type of LB or Edge player has also evolved. The LBs are sometimes smaller than traditional LBs - say 230ish, tall, long arms, fast - and this includes Safeties - and Edge guys who are a bit smaller than DTs and a lot faster.

 

[Heyjoe4]

To each his own on what stats to follow, but in the YPC category, the Pack is tied (with four other teams) for 5th place.

Thanks HE, that's great stuff! It certainly says the run D is better than what I thought it was. That has more to do with a bad habit of mine - paying attention to the bad play at the expense of the good play. The Carolina game in particular bugged me, with a guy named Dowdle putting up well over a hundred yards. That has to be balanced with the excellent job the run D did on Barkley. Anyway, I stand corrected.

Losing Wyatt still hurts, but I have faith in DL coach Covington, and Stackhouse and Brinson. For some reason, I like Stackhouse a little better. Maybe because he's played a good number of snaps. And UDFA, in general, have a desire to make a name when their time comes. It's a great opportunity for both of these guys.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I agree.

It can really screw up planning foe a game in advance.

It really can. The seats next to where I sit are always new people (owner is obviously selling them). It's fun to hear the stories of the people who occupy those seats. A lot of times it is people fulfilling their "bucket list" of attending a Packer game at Lambeau.

One particular game against the Seahawks, it was a Dad and his 10 year old son. They had flown in from NY as a birthday present to the son. His idol was Aaron Rodgers and going to a Packer game was a dream come true. The problem was, the game was originally a Noon game and had been flexed to 3:30. Because of that, they had to leave at halftime in order to catch their paid for and scheduled flight home. Probably bad on the Dad for cutting it that close with a flight, but I am also thinking that there aren't a lot of flights out of Austin Straubel and you kind of have to stick to your flight plans. Nor are there a lot of hotel vacancies on Packer weekends to flex your stay.

Bottom line for fans. The NFL isn't going to stop flexing games, just because it is an inconvenience to fans. So when you purchase tickets, know the flexing rules and make plans in accordance to when the game you are attending "could" be played.

Ways to Watch | NFL.com

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[gopkrs]

What I don't like is when games are flexed to a time where the weather is much colder. And it is cold already. For instance Sunday. I don't know if it makes a difference but I wonder what the temperature would have been at halftime compared to what it will be.

 

[OldSchool101]

Thanks HE, that's great stuff! It certainly says the run D is better than what I thought it was. That has more to do with a bad habit of mine - paying attention to the bad play at the expense of the good play. The Carolina game in particular bugged me, with a guy named Dowdle putting up well over a hundred yards. That has to be balanced with the excellent job the run D did on Barkley. Anyway, I stand corrected.

Losing Wyatt still hurts, but I have faith in DL coach Covington, and Stackhouse and Brinson. For some reason, I like Stackhouse a little better. Maybe because he's played a good number of snaps. And UDFA, in general, have a desire to make a name when their time comes. It's a great opportunity for both of these guys.

I agree. While I don’t want to spin in any way that losing Wyatt doesn’t hurt, it still is not losing our best player either.

Oddly I found out that Brinson has played more than I expected when looking at usage. He’s already been out there for 32% of the Defensive snaps over Stackhouses’ 15% count. That said they are somewhat different style players although both regular rotational from the Bulldogs class A Defense.
Warren Brinson is what I’d call a very balanced Run Stop vs Pass Rush player. He’s not dominant at either but Gus history does display above average at either. Stackhouse is more your Run Stop, gap eating, double block taking Beef who doesn’t give us as much in Pass Rush. Not meant to be any slight as they are different body types and players. Brinson at Georgia was closer to Wyatt (obviously not in Wyatt’s class coming into the NFL) as far as the style. Even at 6’5” 314lb he was seen on film chasing the play all the way into the Players bench. He hustles and is surprisingly quick using his stride and he offers some Pass rush proficiency.

For myself, and this is merely a guess, I see Stackhouse being more important in this game and should equal the snaps of Brinson (30%-35%). He’s going to eat multiple blocks and leave our ultra fast LB’s (and hard hitting Safeties) clean to take on Monongai etc. Now if it wasn’t 9 degrees out with 7mph wind? I’d probably flip and choose Brinson to bring an inside Pass obstacle. I think we’ll see Chicago use 60% Run in this one. They’ll want to use the template that Carolina used with their Run game. Eat the clock and move the chains and keep Love off the field.

PS. I’m well aware of the negative connotation that Hobbs has with some others (not you) in here. However imo Hobbs is near ideal in this type contest. The Bears use physicality and Hobbs one thing he does well is very similar to Bullard. He’s a very physical CB and not afraid to pop a RB into the dirt. He can’t be trusted as much in the Pass though, at least thus far.

 

[OldSchool101]

I’m sure Hafley is light years ahead of my thoughts. However I’m committing extra resources to the Box to stop the Chicago Run game. I’m even shooting that extra Safety or LB to greet Monongai 2 yards behind LOS and if he just happens to choose that direction he’s being confronted at -2 yards. I’m not waiting for his 2+ yards before contact stuff that he’s being served up all season. It’s imperative to shut the run down and force Caleb to throw and make this about his accuracy at 9 degrees and wind. If he beats me it’s throwing long.

if I’m Jeff I’m not waiting for Chicago, I’m dictating where the RB gets accosted. He might break a 11 yard run, but next play it’s 2nd and 13 with a TFL. It’s about dictating what we will allow and make Caleb run and get punished in the cold. GB is one of about 5 teams who have plenty of speed, physicality and versatility in the Slot that can be flipped to thwarting RB’s. Someone in here can spend breath until they are blue in the face trying to convince me that Jamyr Gibbs and David Montgomery rushing for 3.57 per carry across 32 Carry load was a total fluke a week ago. Or we are a great Run Defense only because Devonte Wyatt or just because Amon Ra exited. I don’t buy it. I think Chicago is going to be shocked at this years Packers Run stop and this is the best GB Run D in 15 years +. Chicago has a good Run game but they have not played anyone truly worthy in that regard and the Eagles are a shell of 2024.
I’m about 100% sure Haf is going to use regular 8 man box sets with severe level, downhill mentality and Gang tackle warfare.

Chicago will be dismayed imo. The only reason they squeaked by the Raiders Run D and win by 1pt was Geno Smith. It wasn’t the Bears Run game they got stagnated by an equal to GB. The run headlines were Ashton Jeanty crushing the Chicago run Defense, NOT the other way around. Something greater than Geno Smith is here. If they think Love will serve up 3INT to allow Chicago to squeak by the skin of their teeth, there’s disappointment in the pipeline. This will either be a low scoring close game. Or a substantial GB point spread. Next to maybe Cleveland’s Run Defense, this is a worst case matchup for Chicago.

As someone in here mentioned. We are the exact opposite counter strength to every one of Chicago’s traits that got them here. Chicago will have to hope that GB will go Geno Smith’s 117 yards passing and -3 INT. This will be a nightmare for Chicago if they are forced to play catchup through the air. Don’t get me wrong Chicago is a great team when matchups are ideal. The more I look at where they punch.. We are 1 of about 3 teams they don’t want to play.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I agree. While I don’t want to spin in any way that losing Wyatt doesn’t hurt, it still is not losing our best player either.

Oddly I found out that Brinson has played more than I expected when looking at usage. He’s already been out there for 32% of the Defensive snaps over Stackhouses’ 15% count. That said they are somewhat different style players although both regular rotational from the Bulldogs class A Defense.
Warren Brinson is what I’d call a very balanced Run Stop vs Pass Rush player. He’s not dominant at either but Gus history does display above average at either. Stackhouse is more your Run Stop, gap eating, double block taking Beef who doesn’t give us as much in Pass Rush. Not meant to be any slight as they are different body types and players. Brinson at Georgia was closer to Wyatt (obviously not in Wyatt’s class coming into the NFL) as far as the style. Even at 6’5” 314lb he was seen on film chasing the play all the way into the Players bench. He hustles and is surprisingly quick using his stride and he offers some Pass rush proficiency.

For myself, and this is merely a guess, I see Stackhouse being more important in this game and should equal the snaps of Brinson (30%-35%). He’s going to eat multiple blocks and leave our ultra fast LB’s (and hard hitting Safeties) clean to take on Monongai etc. Now if it wasn’t 9 degrees out with 7mph wind? I’d probably flip and choose Brinson to bring an inside Pass obstacle. I think we’ll see Chicago use 60% Run in this one. They’ll want to use the template that Carolina used with their Run game. Eat the clock and move the chains and keep Love off the field.

PS. I’m well aware of the negative connotation that Hobbs has with some others (not you) in here. However imo Hobbs is near ideal in this type contest. The Bears use physicality and Hobbs one thing he does well is very similar to Bullard. He’s a very physical CB and not afraid to pop a RB into the dirt. He can’t be trusted as much in the Pass though, at least thus far.

Thanks for the info on Brinson and Stackhouse. I think Stackhouse is probably the better player against the run, but they'll both get plenty of snaps against the Bears.

If the Bears run a lot, as they did against the Eagles, Hafley may bring Williams into the box - (and on corner blitzes on passing downs).

However they do it, the D can't let the Bears get into a rhythm with pass/run where the drives are long and eat TOP. It will be a guessing game between Johnson and Hafley.

On offense (and on paper) it's simple. Get a two possession lead early and force the Bears to pass more. Easier said than done. When they've had early, two-possession leads, they've gone on to win (exception Dallas).

 

[Heyjoe4]

What I don't like is when games are flexed to a time where the weather is much colder. And it is cold already. For instance Sunday. I don't know if it makes a difference but I wonder what the temperature would have been at halftime compared to what it will be.

Cold-weather games are better when the sun is out and the wind is low. But a 3:25pm start is like a night game this time of year.

Well both teams play in the same conditions. I don't see weather being a big factor in the game if it stays this way (cold, light to no wind).

 

[El Guapo]

Thanks for the info on Brinson and Stackhouse. I think Stackhouse is probably the better player against the run, but they'll both get plenty of snaps against the Bears.

Skill sets are obviously important, but I think that with rookies you will see the Packers go with whomever is playing the best during that game. Young players are are too streaky.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Skill sets are obviously important, but I think that with rookies you will see the Packers go with whomever is playing the best during that game. Young players are are too streaky.

Agree. It's hard to predict when a rookie will become "ready" for regular play. Hopefully for Stackhouse and Brinson, it's Sunday.

 

[OldSchool101]

Thanks for the info on Brinson and Stackhouse. I think Stackhouse is probably the better player against the run, but they'll both get plenty of snaps against the Bears.

If the Bears run a lot, as they did against the Eagles, Hafley may bring Williams into the box - (and on corner blitzes on passing downs).

However they do it, the D can't let the Bears get into a rhythm with pass/run where the drives are long and eat TOP. It will be a guessing game between Johnson and Hafley.

On offense (and on paper) it's simple. Get a two possession lead early and force the Bears to pass more. Easier said than done. When they've had early, two-possession leads, they've gone on to win (exception Dallas).

Yes. The weather could be a determining factor. Supposed to be around 15 degrees and finishing at 10 degrees in this one with a light breeze (5-10mph) Obviously weather can not always align perfectly with reality. Generally within 48 hours or so it does align pretty close.

I suspect this will have some slight to moderate affect on the passing game. Although we’ve seen teams still operate in the medium passing game with some efficiency even at 15 degrees or thereabouts.

The logical formula is a slightly increase in run snaps and mixing in more shorter pass routes. If Golden or Reed play in this one it could really help as both have good hands and both have a knack for creating separation.

 

[Pkrjones]

WR Rome Odunze has already been ruled Out by da Bears... hurts their pass game threat.

 

[Sanguine camper]

Chicago will follow Carolina's gameplan. They will pound the rock and eat up the clock. The cold will impact the kicking game and the passing game if it's windy.

The Bears have built a very good offensive line. I think the rest of the team is mediocre. Stop the run and the Packers will win. If the Bears O line controls the LOS, it will be a long afternoon.

 

[milani]

Chicago will follow Carolina's gameplan. They will pound the rock and eat up the clock. The cold will impact the kicking game and the passing game if it's windy.

The Bears have built a very good offensive line. I think the rest of the team is mediocre. Stop the run and the Packers will win. If the Bears O line controls the LOS, it will be a long afternoon.

The Bears still have a better QB than Carolina. He may only throw 12 times or as many as 35 if needed. And he will take off as many times as he feels to get first downs. In some ways Caleb is like a modern day Tarkenton in the early years of his career. But, as you said, the Bears can and should try to pound the rock all day.

 

[OldSchool101]

WR Rome Odunze has already been ruled Out by da Bears... hurts their pass game threat.

This is a significant loss. He’s their highest producing WR and holds by far the largest target share.

 

[OldSchool101]

Chicago will follow Carolina's gameplan. They will pound the rock and eat up the clock. The cold will impact the kicking game and the passing game if it's windy.

The Bears have built a very good offensive line. I think the rest of the team is mediocre. Stop the run and the Packers will win. If the Bears O line controls the LOS, it will be a long afternoon.

Well GB has been preparing for exactly that. I think people forget we were not even playing whole last week and held Jamyr Gibbs and Montgomery to 3.57 per. Aside from a sole long run each from Goff, Gibbs and Montgomery.. Detroit’s #2 per carry (5.0 per) Run Group had 27 of 30 cumulative runs for 2.33 per carry. Yet GB continues to buffer their #5 ranked per carry (3.9) Run Defense. Signing a pair of veteran, Run-Stuffing NT’s tallying just shy of 700lbs.

This is actually going to be fun to watch.

PS. Welcome back Quay Walker!

 

[Heyjoe4]

Yes. The weather could be a determining factor. Supposed to be around 15 degrees and finishing at 10 degrees in this one with a light breeze (5-10mph) Obviously weather can not always align perfectly with reality. Generally within 48 hours or so it does align pretty close.

I suspect this will have some slight to moderate affect on the passing game. Although we’ve seen teams still operate in the medium passing game with some efficiency even at 15 degrees or thereabouts.

The logical formula is a slightly increase in run snaps and mixing in more shorter pass routes. If Golden or Reed play in this one it could really help as both have good hands and both have a knack for creating separation.

Agreed. The weather will not be so bad that it dictates running - although I expect both teams to run a lot.

I'd like to see Wilson get more snaps because 1) he has a different running style than Jacobs, more of a slasher/swimmer like Aaron Jones, but bigger and 2) it gets Jacobs some rest - and with his running style that's a good thing.

Still expecting this to be a relatively easy win for GB, 27-20 or 27-14. I just don't see the Bears' offense as better than the Packers' defense.

A number of writers are predicting a split in the series. I don't see it happening. I expect the Packers to win both games, and go 6-0 in the North.

 

[chemist]

Yes. The weather could be a determining factor. Supposed to be around 15 degrees and finishing at 10 degrees in this one with a light breeze (5-10mph) Obviously weather can not always align perfectly with reality. Generally within 48 hours or so it does align pretty close.

I suspect this will have some slight to moderate affect on the passing game. Although we’ve seen teams still operate in the medium passing game with some efficiency even at 15 degrees or thereabouts.

The logical formula is a slightly increase in run snaps and mixing in more shorter pass routes. If Golden or Reed play in this one it could really help as both have good hands and both have a knack for creating separation.

Good Hands.....cant leave Wicks out of that group, he closed it out in the lions game.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I agree.

It can really screw up planning for a game in advance.

It’s the NFL so anything they do involves making money. Ok maybe that’s overstating things, but not much.

The networks were able to reschedule game start times late in the season. I like this but can see how it could disrupt game prep.

 

[gopkrs]

Just fom what I've been reading, we should win both games handily. But I've watched the bears some this year and they seem better than what a bunch of pundits say. Not to mention it's a rivalry and Norse division game. I guess I'll just have to see how the game plays out. GoPackGo!

 

[OldSchool101]

I'd like to see Wilson get more snaps because 1) he has a different running style than Jacobs, more of a slasher/swimmer like Aaron Jones, but bigger and 2) it gets Jacobs some rest - and with his running style that's a good thing.

I was just thinking that exact same thing recently. Wilson is actually a pretty dynamic blend of quickness and power. He’s not flashy level or a home run hitter, but his carry load probably has his legs fresh for one. We need Jacobs healthy down the stretch and if I recall he hit his knee pretty hard and limped off the field. Ok use him, but maybe 1/2 his snaps in this one and get EW going.

Just fom what I've been reading, we should win both games handily. But I've watched the bears some this year and they seem better than what a bunch of pundits say.

This is true. Chicago has this weird X factor.

First they obviously focus on takeaways. We even watched them rip the ball away from Hurts on the Tush Push which gave the league some ideas to mitigate that play. Yet the point being they don’t get “lucky” they are very intentional. Eerily similar to the 2010 Packers, where when I followed them they were net +20 going into postseason area. Yet our D hovered top 3 AND opportunistic. Chicago relies on opportunistic to stay “average”

Counter: Play them Clean

This is extremely cold weather making the ball easier to dislodge. Also if GB either has 0 Turnovers or stays even or even +?? Imo there’s a 75% chance we win this contest. Chicago almost exclusively uses takeaway margin to keep it at 24 points per allowed. Their D is truly a 26 points per allowed unit. Which is why you see a -6.5 odds GB is 18.6 points per allowed

The other aspect is this. While Jordan Love is still hands down the better overall QB, Caleb is backyard football scrappy. Now he’s not a threat like Josh Allen or Lamar etc. Yet if left unattended he’ll silently punish you. He has 8 games with runs of 10+. He’s
61 for 306 yards 22-1st D and 3 TD’s. So even including his high Sack count he’s netting 5.6 per carry. That’s well above average for a QB those normally fall 2-4 yards area on average because they include QB TFL.

I’m becoming increasingly concerned he’s going to try to repeat that Eagles game and hurt us. He’s still raw and often he’ll run when he should throw when scrambling outside. It’s not smart long term but it’s effective. Put a spy on him would be my recommendation.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I was just thinking that exact same thing recently. Wilson is actually a pretty dynamic blend of quickness and power.

I saw this article the other day, had to laugh. Maybe Wilson thinks he can be a #1 RB with a team next year, but someone better remind the author that Wilson will be a RFA after this season.

Emanuel Wilson Likely Has Zero Interest in Packers Return Next Year

Emanuel Wilson may be looking for a change of scenery next offseason if the Green Bay Packers' plans at running back don't change.

dairylandexpress.com

 

[Half Empty]

I guess I'll just have to see how the game plays out.

Interesting concept.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

Packers picked up a NT that's 350. I like the move. No career sacks is the definition of one dimensional. But if he gets that push in the middle and holds the point when doubled.... That will come in handy in Jan.