Packers hire Mike Pettine, defensive coordinator

[Dantés]

I did a little bit of a dive into Pettine's history as a DC/HC in regards to sacks.

A couple disclaimers: 1) I know sacks don't tell the whole story. 2) Talent obviously impacts trends; for instance, Pettine currently has a lot more DL talent to work with than he did at times in NY and CLE, whereas his ED talent in Green Bay isn't as good as what he had in Buffalo.

The raw numbers:

• 2009 Jets: 32 total, 1.5 DL 17.5 ED, 6.5 LB, 6.5 DB (high of 8)
• 2010 Jets: 40 total, 4 DL, 21 ED, 4 LB, 11 DB (high of 6)
• 2011 Jets: 35 total, 7.5 DL, 14 ED, 9.5 LB, 4 DB (high of 6)
• 2012 Jets: 30 total, 7 DL, 14.5 ED, 6.5 LB, 2 DB (high of 5.5)
• 2013 Bills: 57 total, 20 DL, 23.5 ED, 6 LB, 7.5 DB (high of 13)
• 2014 Browns: 31 total, 6 DL, 17 ED, 5 LB, 2 DB (high of 11)
• 2015 Browns: 29 total, 10 DL, 12 ED, 3.5 LB, 3.5 DB (high of 6)
• Average: 36 total, 8 DL, 17 ED, 6 LB, 5 DB

The first thing that stands out is 2013. It's an outlier. The rest of the totals are pretty consistent, but his lone year with the Bills nearly doubles some of the others. I think this is a function of high end front 7 talent (Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, Jerry Hughes, Marcell Dareus) that far and away outclassed what he worked with elsewhere (e.g. Calvin Pace, Shaun Ellis, Paul Kruger, etc.; he only caught the beginning of Mo Wilk's career in New York). As an outlier, the 57 sack season should not be the expectation for Packers fans, but it is proof that Pettine can ratchet things up appropriately when he has the tools.

Other observations:

Outside of Mario Williams and Paul Kruger in 2013 and 2014 respectively, Pettine has not had a player achieve above 8. I think this is partially a function of lacking edge talent, but also a function of his defenses' propensity for getting pressure by committee.

While the totals from the front are fairly modest, Pettine gets an unusually large percentage of his sacks from off-ball linebackers and defensive backs. On average, 31% came from these players.

Given that his units have almost always been successful, it would seem that the low sack totals are also a function of design. Pettine seems to prefer pressure/containment to high sack totals. This philosophy is not uncommon and it's predicated on the idea that a high pressure defense will lead to more takeaways than a high sack total defense.

Conclusion:

I think Packer fans should be expecting a 35-40 sacks total this season, with the DL perhaps shouldering more of the load than his 9 sack career average. While I do think it's clear that Perry and Matthews are better pure edge rushers than anything he had outside of Buffalo, their injury histories mean that 5-8 sacks is probably about right for those guys. I would look out for Martinez and Jones to make some big contributions in this regard. Should the edge players remain healthy, he could beat his average handily as I do fully expect that Daniels, Clark, Wilkerson, and Lowry to be a force up front in rotation.

 

[PackerDNA]

Pettine is one of my "X factors " this season. I'm excited to see what he does, and by all accounts so are his players.
One big thing I've read about him is his preference of getting pressure up the middle. I think he has the personnel here to do so.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Outside of Mario Williams and Paul Kruger in 2013 and 2014 respectively, Pettine has not had a player achieve above 8. I think this is partially a function of lacking edge talent, but also a function of his defenses' propensity for getting pressure by committee.

It's a nit pick, but Kyle Williams had 10.5 sacks and Jerry Hughes had 10 sacks in 2013.

That Bills team had a talented backfield while Alonso won Rookie of the Year playing ILB. These factors certainly helped the pass rush.

Jim Schwatz took over for Pettine in 2014, switched it from 3-4 to 4-3, and racked up 54 sacks with the same key 2013 pash rushers. That was an outstanding defense, perhaps top 10 in this decade. Nothing fancy; just line up in nickel, put Spikes out there in base to stop the run when needed, and just play football. Packer fans may recall losing to that team 21-14; Rodgers couldn't figure them out.

Schwartz is an outstanding DC. But one would have to say both he and Pettine benefited from an outstanding collection of talent.

 

[Dantés]

It's a nit pick, but Kyle Williams had 10.5 sacks and Jerry Hughes had 10 sacks in 2013.

That Bills team had a talented backfield while Alonso won Rookie of the Year playing ILB. These factors certainly helped the pass rush.

Jim Schwatz took over for Pettine in 2014, switched it from 3-4 to 4-3, and racked up 54 sacks with the same key 2013 pash rushers. That was an outstanding defense, perhaps top 10 in this decade. Nothing fancy; just line up in nickel, put Spikes out there in base to stop the run when needed, and just play football. Packer fans may recall losing to that team 21-14; Rodgers couldn't figure them out.

Schwartz is an outstanding DC. But one would have to say both he and Pettine benefited from an outstanding collection of talent.

That's a worthwhile correction.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I did a little bit of a dive into Pettine's history as a DC/HC in regards to sacks.

A couple disclaimers: 1) I know sacks don't tell the whole story. 2) Talent obviously impacts trends; for instance, Pettine currently has a lot more DL talent to work with than he did at times in NY and CLE, whereas his ED talent in Green Bay isn't as good as what he had in Buffalo.

The raw numbers:

• 2009 Jets: 32 total, 1.5 DL 17.5 ED, 6.5 LB, 6.5 DB (high of 8)
• 2010 Jets: 40 total, 4 DL, 21 ED, 4 LB, 11 DB (high of 6)
• 2011 Jets: 35 total, 7.5 DL, 14 ED, 9.5 LB, 4 DB (high of 6)
• 2012 Jets: 30 total, 7 DL, 14.5 ED, 6.5 LB, 2 DB (high of 5.5)
• 2013 Bills: 57 total, 20 DL, 23.5 ED, 6 LB, 7.5 DB (high of 13)
• 2014 Browns: 31 total, 6 DL, 17 ED, 5 LB, 2 DB (high of 11)
• 2015 Browns: 29 total, 10 DL, 12 ED, 3.5 LB, 3.5 DB (high of 6)
• Average: 36 total, 8 DL, 17 ED, 6 LB, 5 DB

The first thing that stands out is 2013. It's an outlier. The rest of the totals are pretty consistent, but his lone year with the Bills nearly doubles some of the others. I think this is a function of high end front 7 talent (Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, Jerry Hughes, Marcell Dareus) that far and away outclassed what he worked with elsewhere (e.g. Calvin Pace, Shaun Ellis, Paul Kruger, etc.; he only caught the beginning of Mo Wilk's career in New York). As an outlier, the 57 sack season should not be the expectation for Packers fans, but it is proof that Pettine can ratchet things up appropriately when he has the tools.

Other observations:

Outside of Mario Williams and Paul Kruger in 2013 and 2014 respectively, Pettine has not had a player achieve above 8. I think this is partially a function of lacking edge talent, but also a function of his defenses' propensity for getting pressure by committee.

While the totals from the front are fairly modest, Pettine gets an unusually large percentage of his sacks from off-ball linebackers and defensive backs. On average, 31% came from these players.

Given that his units have almost always been successful, it would seem that the low sack totals are also a function of design. Pettine seems to prefer pressure/containment to high sack totals. This philosophy is not uncommon and it's predicated on the idea that a high pressure defense will lead to more takeaways than a high sack total defense.

Conclusion:

I think Packer fans should be expecting a 35-40 sacks total this season, with the DL perhaps shouldering more of the load than his 9 sack career average. While I do think it's clear that Perry and Matthews are better pure edge rushers than anything he had outside of Buffalo, their injury histories mean that 5-8 sacks is probably about right for those guys. I would look out for Martinez and Jones to make some big contributions in this regard. Should the edge players remain healthy, he could beat his average handily as I do fully expect that Daniels, Clark, Wilkerson, and Lowry to be a force up front in rotation.

Nice analysis Dantes, thanks. I think that pressures can be as useful as sacks in measuring how a D impacts an offense. I’m expecting a lot of pressure this year to come from the middle of the line, ideally forcing a QB out of the pocket and out of rhythm. That also takes some pressure off the secondary. Sacks are nice, but not the only measure of an effective d.

 

[Dantés]

Nice analysis Dantes, thanks. I think that pressures can be as useful as sacks in measuring how a D impacts an offense. I’m expecting a lot of pressure this year to come from the middle of the line, ideally forcing a QB out of the pocket and out of rhythm. That also takes some pressure off the secondary. Sacks are nice, but not the only measure of an effective d.

While no DC is ever looking to not get sacks, I’ve heard some over the years comment that their ideal scenario is a pressured QB throwing a pick. That is hardly ground breaking. But I think it does open the door to the possibility that some teams don’t set sack totals as the main goal of the defense, but rather takeaways.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

While no DC is ever looking to not get sacks, I’ve heard some over the years comment that their ideal scenario is a pressured QB throwing a pick. That is hardly ground breaking. But I think it does open the door to the possibility that some teams don’t set sack totals as the main goal of the defense, but rather takeaways.

Seems like the Packer defenses over the last 4 seasons have been ranked middle of the pack and better on the number of takeaways, but I think that stat can be deceiving. How many of those were created by the defense and how many were just bad passes or fumbled balls? One thing I would like to see Pettine's defense do better is get pressure, so QB's don't have so much time to find open receivers. Like you said, sacks aren't always the goal, but quick pressure is. I also would like to see the Packer players get a bit more aggressive with trying to strip the ball from an opposing player.

 

[Dantés]

Seems like the Packer defenses over the last 4 seasons have been ranked middle of the pack and better on the number of takeaways, but I think that stat can be deceiving. How many of those were created by the defense and how many were just bad passes or fumbled balls? One thing I would like to see Pettine's defense do better is get pressure, so QB's don't have so much time to find open receivers. Like you said, sacks aren't always the goal, but quick pressure is. I also would like to see the Packer players get a bit more aggressive with trying to strip the ball from an opposing player.

The biggest improvement I expect under Pettine is just a reduction in blown assignments. That alone would yield some significant results.

 

[gopkrs]

I don't know what to expect. But I don't want to see the DBs playing so far off that we give up 3rd and medium/longs all the time.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I don't know what to expect. But I don't want to see the DBs playing so far off that we give up 3rd and medium/longs all the time.

The good news....there is really nowhere to go but up from the Dom Capers defense. With all the draft investments in the defense over the last several years, its time to swim or sink. If the personnel isn't there this year, I expect Gute to start looking at the FA market in 2019 to improve the defense. Wilkerson hopefully, was a good step in the right direction with that.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The good news....there is really nowhere to go but up from the Dom Capers defense. With all the draft investments in the defense over the last several years, its time to swim or sink. If the personnel isn't there this year, I expect Gute to start looking at the FA market in 2019 to improve the defense. Wilkerson hopefully, was a good step in the right direction with that.

Great point. The Pack has already spent their first two picks on DBs, Randall (gone) and Rollins (soon to be gone). Maybe nothing could be done with Rollins, a one year college player, but with the right coaching, Randall could have added a lot more. It didn’t help that Capers played him out of position (he was a safety in college, I think), and no one could control the guy and so his attitude became a problem. Gluten has given Pettine quite a bit to work with in Alexander and Jackson, including King and the return of Williams (I think Williams will contribute more than most think). But Capers was kept on long, long past his expiration date, and that’s on MM. Loyalty only goes so far.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I don't know what to expect. But I don't want to see the DBs playing so far off that we give up 3rd and medium/longs all the time.

That really WAS a problem last year. There were numerous third and 8 or more and it seemed like the majority of the time they were converted, when they should have been sacks or INTs. I have a feeling that with Pettine the DBs are going to be a lot closer to the line, and a lot more physical.

 

[Poppa San]

That really WAS a problem last year. There were numerous third and 8 or more and it seemed like the majority of the time they were converted, when they should have been sacks or INTs. I have a feeling that with Pettine the DBs are going to be a lot closer to the line, and a lot more physical.

Waiting for Capt to show up with his stats to show the Packers D was actually competent on 3rd and long. It only seemed they sucked.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Great point. The Pack has already spent their first two picks on DBs, Randall (gone) and Rollins (soon to be gone). Maybe nothing could be done with Rollins, a one year college player, but with the right coaching, Randall could have added a lot more. It didn’t help that Capers played him out of position (he was a safety in college, I think), and no one could control the guy and so his attitude became a problem. Gluten has given Pettine quite a bit to work with in Alexander and Jackson, including King and the return of Williams (I think Williams will contribute more than most think). But Capers was kept on long, long past his expiration date, and that’s on MM. Loyalty only goes so far.

So you think capers should have benched Burnett or Dix for Randall?

 

[HardRightEdge]

What I expect from Pettine is a more aggresive, attacking and simpler defense. We'll just have see if he has the horses to pull that off.

 

[HardRightEdge]

That's a worthwhile correction.

I didn't think so. It was nit picking that had no affect on your larger point.

It's the other part that is relevant: Pettine had an outstanding collection of talent in Buffalo.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

But I think it does open the door to the possibility that some teams don’t set sack totals as the main goal of the defense, but rather takeaways.

Obviously the main goal for a defense is to prevent the opposing team to score points. Pettine's teams ranked as follows:

New York Jets (defensive coordinator):
2009: 1st
2010: 6th
2011: 20th
2012: 20th

Buffalo Bills (defensive coordinator):
2013: 20th

Cleveland Browns (head coach):
2014: 9th
2015: 29th

It's interesting to note that it seems Pettine has followed a similar path as Capers having had success early during his stints in New York and Cleveland while struggling from there on. In addition it seems that all those sacks the Bills registered in 2013 didn't actually result in the defense being successful.

The good news....there is really nowhere to go but up from the Dom Capers defense.

I don't want to play devil's advocate but theoreticall the Packers defense could get even worse as well.

Waiting for Capt to show up with his stats to show the Packers D was actually competent on 3rd and long. It only seemed they sucked.

Actually the Packers defense really struggled in third-and-long situations ranking 25th in conversion percentage allowed on plays with 7+ yards to go.

So you think capers should have benched Burnett or Dix for Randall?

Randall might have presented an upgrade at free safety.

 

[Dantés]

Obviously the main goal for a defense is to prevent the opposing team to score points. Pettine's teams ranked as follows:

New York Jets (defensive coordinator):
2009: 1st
2010: 6th
2011: 20th
2012: 20th

Buffalo Bills (defensive coordinator):
2013: 20th

Cleveland Browns (head coach):
2014: 9th
2015: 29th

It's interesting to note that it seems Pettine has followed a similar path as Capers having had success early during his stints in New York and Cleveland while struggling from there on. In addition it seems that all those sacks the Bills registered in 2013 didn't actually result in the defense being successful.



I don't want to play devil's advocate but theoreticall the Packers defense could get even worse as well.



Actually the Packers defense really struggled in third-and-long situations ranking 25th in conversion percentage allowed on plays with 7+ yards to go.



Randall might have presented an upgrade at free safety.

Another interesting thing to note are the defensive DVOA rankings.

In 2011, the Jets were 2nd in the league. In 2012, they were 10th. I believe in his lone year in Buffalo, they were 5th.

I don’t really know the reason for the discrepancy, but I generally think the DVOA metric is a good one. Perhaps the scoring defense was out of whack due to terrible offenses in both those places? He’s never actually coached a team with a good offense. It will be interesting to watch what happens when he has a vengeful Rodgers manning the other unit.

 

[Dantés]

A more comprehensive note on DVOA, Pettine’s average in 7 years as a DC/HC was 8th. In his 5 years only as a DC, his average was 4th.

For comparison, Capers’ average in 9 seasons was 17th.

 

[Dantés]

Last note on Pettine and DVOA: far and away his worst season was 2015, wherein the Browns ranked 23rd. However, after his departure the team plunged further, to 31st in 2016.

 

[n4t]

Nice breakdown.

I think it is worth noting that this defense was unable to do much blitzing of DBs in the last few seasons, mainly due to injury and poor personnel IMO. Pettine has a lot of pieces on paper right now, and the situation looks much better for him. Dom's defense was much better earlier due to better personnel aka Charles Woodson and Clay working together off the edge among others.

The degredation of results over time of a defense is usually due to an initial large investment in talent at hiring of a new DC. Some teams do not succeed in keeping that investment going. Thompson certainly did not do a very good job at maintaining the talent level of the defense - though not for lack of trying. The fault is not only his, as the salaries of the successful veterans need to be maintained which is not easy. Some teams are more dedicated or lucky at maintaining talent on D, but top defenses rarely last in the league due to various factors not involving the defensive coordinator.

We have a new DC and an influx of talent. I'm excited to see how much it pays off, and maybe a little hopeful.

 

[GBkrzygrl]

What I expect from Pettine is a more aggresive, attacking and simpler defense. We'll just have see if he has the horses to pull that off.

I am hoping that he will pump some energy into that group. He seems to have it in spades. These last few years the defense looked confused and discouraged.

I particularly like his mantra, Likable and learnable. I am excited to see these guys playing with aggression.

 

[rmontro]

Obviously the main goal for a defense is to prevent the opposing team to score points. Pettine's teams ranked as follows:

Those scoring defensive rankings were a little disappointing. I had thought Pettine's teams had been more successful than that. I was probably looking at yardage defense though. Those DVOA ratings look more promising. I'm still optimistic about him, until I have reason not to be.

 

[Dantés]

Those scoring defensive rankings were a little disappointing. I had thought Pettine's teams had been more successful than that. I was probably looking at yardage defense though. Those DVOA ratings look more promising. I'm still optimistic about him, until I have reason not to be.

No metric is perfect, but the advantage of DVOA is that it’s adjusted for strength of schedule and it’s measured independent of the offense. Scoring defense can be skewed by an offense/ST that gives up points (pick sixes or fumble returns, return TD’s), short fields, or merely forces the defense on the field too much by not possessing the ball.

For an example, look at the Broncos this last season. They have the personnel of a top 5 defense, but they were 25th in scoring D due to the stress placed on them by the offense.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I particularly like his mantra, Likable and learnable. I am excited to see these guys playing with aggression.

It's K-I-L-L, "keep it likeable and learnable." I guess the acronym is left to speak for the agression.