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Next years Free Agents

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by FrankRizzo, Dec 21, 2013.

  1. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    We are going to lose some key pieces this off-season.
    We can't keep em all.

    Here's a list of our free agents after this season.
    Some of course will cost a lot more than others.
    Factoring in how much they will cost (I will put $ next to how big their contract will take IMO), I will rank how I want them to be kept. I will cross off the guys who will or should not be brought back no matter how cheap. Sadaly we have a few guys on here who have no control over coming back due to injury.

    MY TOP 9 ON WHO WE SHOULD KEEP, factoring in price tags and cap space. Sorry Raji, but for his price-tag, I think we can keep about 4 or 5 of these lower guys.

    1. Sam Shields (he will cost a ton, but he's one of the NFL's best 5 cover corners, and he's ours)
    2. James Jones (so underrated, I hope nobody else wants him, like was the case last time he was a FA)
    3. Matt Flynn (nobody else wants him, he's set in stone as our backup, very important obviously)
    4. EDS (won't cost much, he does the job)
    5. Andrew Quarless (he's all we got at TE now)
    6. Jamarri Lattimore (will be cheap, his upside is worth a step-up)
    7. James Starks (he's a great comp to Lacy as we see)
    8. Mike Neal (we overdrafted him in the 1st place and he's been hurt a lot, he won't cost much)
    9. Ryan Pickett (one year vet minimum)



    *Restricted free agent
    Offense
    QB Seneca Wallace
    QB Matt Flynn $
    FB John Kuhn $
    RB James Starks $
    RB Kahlil Bell
    WR James Jones $$ or $$$
    TE Jermichael Finley (injury retired)
    TE Andrew Quarless $
    T Marshall Newhouse
    C Evan Dietrich-Smith $

    Defense
    DT Johnny Jolly (another sad injury ending)
    DT Ryan Pickett $
    DT B.J. Raji $$$$
    DE C.J. Wilson $
    OLB Mike Neal $$
    LB Robert Francois
    LB Jamari Lattimore* $
    CB Sam Shields $$$$
    S M.D. Jennings* $

    Article on ESPN from RDevo
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2013
  2. 7thFloorRA

    7thFloorRA Cheesehead

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    I agree pretty much with your entire list. I would be open to Francois at the minimum. He does some nice special teams work. Shields is a must sign. I don't care for EDS as a starter but until there is a better alternative he has to stay. I wouldn't pay him much though. I would pay Newhouse to leave.
     
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  3. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    I wonder if anyone would give us their 5th round pick if we gave them Newhouse and our 5th round pick.
     
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  4. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Cheesehead

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    Just curious what others think is a realistic expectation for a Shields offer ..... is $34 million for 4 years with 10m guaranteed about right? Assuming that Finley's career is over, I think Shields, Quarless and EDS are the three most important guys to re-sign. I was hoping they would try to re-sign Jolly as well depending on his injury situation. I'd like them to retain Lattimore and Starks which should be pretty easy as neither should attract big offers.
     
  5. 7thFloorRA

    7thFloorRA Cheesehead

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    Its going to be time to once again address Lovat's program. Are these guys not doing any neck work? There are absolutely things you can do to try and strengthen the neck/shoulder area and this is now the 4th guy to go down with a possibly career ending injury. Richardson came back but 4 in 4 years is a lot. These are usually pretty rare injuries.
     
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  6. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Shields EDS and Flynn should be priority, Quarless and Jolly following that. Tender Latt and MD, try to bag Jones Neal and Raji, Grease if you can't get BJ, get Wilson if you can get him, Starks Francois and Kuhn can be replaced. Cut bait with Bell and Lolzus, and never speak of Newhouse again. Shame about Fin though...
     
  7. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    Painfully, that sounds pretty realistic.
    I'd like to get a 5th year added.
    Would like to see 5 years, $35 million, $15 guaranteed.
     
  8. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I agree Shields is on top of the list of guys the Packers have to bring back, he's not a top 5 cover corner though.


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  9. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    FAs are going to be surprised by all the low offers they get this offseason
     
  10. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    The consensus top cover corners are:
    Richard Sherman
    Revis Island
    Joe Haden

    I think Sherman gets away with holding all the time. Shields covers better.
    Haden is good, but Jordy got the best of him. Shields is faster.
    Revis Island, not sure what speed he has left but it's not as fast as Shields.

    We got a good one in Sam, who has WR's hands, ball skills.
    He has to stay.
     
  11. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I agree that Shields has to stay, but taking a look at coverage stats he's not a top 20 CB.

    And if you want to talk about consensus top cover corners you better include the Titans Alterraun Verner from now on.



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  12. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Talented, second-contract FAs at highly valued positions will still get paid...QB, LT, WR, edge rusher, cover corner.

    While the 2014 cap is expected to remain relatively flat and still below the 2009 peak, there has still been inflation among the core position / top dollar players...the savings from the rookie salary scale is rising to the top.

    The other guys will get squeezed, as we started to see last season...30+ guys, solid starters, lower value position players.

    As for Shields, $15 mil guaranteed would rank 7th. among current CB contracts, while 2 of those top 7 are fully guaranteed, low total dollar rookie deals signed under the new rookie scale (Peterson, Claiborne).

    http://overthecap.com/top-player-salaries.php?Position=CB

    Shields might be asking for that, but I doubt it will be offered. A $12 mil guarantee would rank 13th., or 9th. among vet contracts (Gilmore and Milliner also have fully guaranteed, low total dollar deals). That sounds close to right, given Shields is in his age sweet spot (just turned 26). The negatives are low draft status (from a market value standpoint), a history of not being particularly physical, and not being the same guy in zone that we see in man-to-man cover corner mode.

    Tramon Williams' 2010 renegotiation (in the uncapped year) was for 5 yrs./$38 mil/11 mil guaranteed. That sounds about right for Shields who's best play (the last 2 seasons) matches Williams' 2010 best.

    What concerns me is you just don't hear Packer coaches or management ever giving him much love. They had no qualms about talking to the press about his bad tackling in 2011, but not much said when the league doesn't throw at him or the league's low QB rating against him when they do.

    That concerns me.

    Give him Raji's money and call it a day, why doncha.
     
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  13. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    No idea where you got that info from, but teams are throwing at Shields. The receiver he has covered this season have been targeted 77 times (way more than Sherman and Revis, for example) and he's ranked 19th in opposing QB rating (of CBs playing more than 50% of the snaps).


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  14. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Keep in mind that excluding ALL of these free agents, our current cap commitments for next year for the top 51 are $107 mil. Even with some carryover, there's not a ton of wiggle room. The only vet that could be released to gain meaningful cap space is Tramon Williams (about +$7.5 cap room). I have an uneasy feeling that there will be a choice made between Shields and Williams, with Williams being the coaches feel-good "company man".

    After Shield:

    1. I would have liked to put Jolly high on the list, but a bulging disk is not auspicious. It's a double whammy because it improves Raji's bargaining position.

    2. With Jolly in serious question, bringing Pickett back on a one or two year deal starts to look more attractive.

    3. I think Quarless merits attention. He's been looking like Finley-lite the last few games. However, like Finley, he's not much of a blocker. With Finley in serious doubt and the fact Quarless shouldn't cost much, he represents good value.

    4. Jones is a tough call. It would be nice to have him back, but I'm not sure he'll be a good value for us. Nelson together with Cobb coming back (some day) and Boykin looking like a good-hands possession guy with some hops (even if he's slow) are a good mix. This offense needs to be 4 deep, especially with Finley likely gone, but I'm not sure Jones won't get #2 money from somebody else while he's a #3 or #4 for us. Both Nelson's and Cobb's contracts are up after 2014...both will have to be paid...that limits how much can be committed to the position now.

    5. Flynn should be kept if nobody else will risk compete-for-starter money. $1.5 - 2.0 mil per year for a few years would be worth it I think.

    5. Lattimore is a physical middle-of-the-field player, something we need even if he has to ride the bench behind the "money" who also happen to be better coverage guys. He won't cost much.

    I have a hard time getting too excited about anybody else.
     
  15. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Well, I wouldn't put him in the Revis and Sherman class in terms of money (now and future), respectively.

    I'm also taking into account Shield's 2012 season, where he ranked toward the top of the league in least-thrown-at per snap and passer-rating-against. Because Williams has lost his touch at press (probably a hangover from the shoulder injury), Shields has been asked to take that on, not playing to his strength. He's awfully good in off man coverage on the island, something considered of value by many teams.
     
  16. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Last season he actually led the league in least receptions allowed per cover snaps and ranked 13th in opposing passer rating (Casey Hayward led the league in that category).

    I would really like to have Shields back next year, but I'm not sure that he won't ask for too much money for that to happen.
     
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  17. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    There you go...toward the top of the league.

    Nickel corners, like Heyward, should be classified separately. They're more like strong safeties that cover corners.

    I don't get the sense the organization likes Shields that much...so whether it's Shields asking too much or the Packers offering too little is a matter of perspective, but I'm not getting a good feeling about it.
     
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  18. Carl

    Carl Cheesehead

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    I would like to see Shields resigned, but I think it's a matter of whether another team decides to shell out way more than he's worth, which tends to happen early in free agency.
     
  19. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Peterson is also in that conversation, if you want someone more comparable to Shields.
     
  20. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Cheesehead

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    I agree. Already have 4-6 teams that are projected to be over the 14 cap which means releases are coming there. With a flat cap and some of the huge contracts that have been signed in the last 12 months, I think some of them testing the free agent market waters are going to be very disappointed. I think the middle of the road 28-29 year olds are going to get lousy offers compared to years prior.
     
  21. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    If I am Seattle and SF I'm going to try n carry over as much cap $ as possible to pay Wilson and kap
     
  22. J Mills

    J Mills Cheesehead

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    I think many are giving Shields too much credit. He is a good cover guy, not elite. Not on the level of Revis, Sherman, Patrick Peterson or Haden. He is a dreadful tackler, terrible in run support. Overall an above average guy but should not be given elite money. EDS is one of the bottom ten centers in the league, I think Ted will look to upgrade the OC in the draft. Get Bulaga back healthy add an good young OC and I think this line could be very good.
     
  23. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    Raji has to go.
    If he really turned down $8 mil/year, IMO that means he wants to go somewhere else, probably the east coast.

    Of the seven defensive linemen with more than 60 snaps, Raji ranks last in tackles per snap with one every 18.07.
    He also hasn't had a sack in 35 games and his pressure numbers have been disappointing.
     
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  24. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    I think Shields is a MUCH better cover corner than Sherman is, and right there with Haden.
    Sherman is way overrated.

    #1- he gets away with holding all the time, like Woodson used to
    #2- he has a great pass rush pressuring QBs to throw early (remember us there in Seattle last year)
    #3- he has 2 great safeties in Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor, who both ALWAYS SOMEHOW ARE HEALTHY

    Shields, like Tramon, House, and Hayward, are soft tacklers.
    But so was Deion.

    A guy who can cover as well as Shields can, in today's pass-happy NFL, is very valuable. You'll see when he gets his next contract.
     
  25. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    To repeat, I was not exaggerating when I said he's the worst 3-4 DE in the league.
     

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