Free Agent Market

[Dantés]

Free Agency is slated to begin officially on 3/13. It would seem that the Packers will be in position to be a little bit more active than they were a year ago. They certainly don't have lots of room, but they have enough future flexibility to upgrade the roster in various ways. My guess is that they are going to seek to address major holes on the roster with free agents so that they aren't pigeon-holed in the draft. For that reason, I'm focusing primarily on the following positions: Running Back, Linebacker, Cornerback, Safety.

One could also include OL, but I just can't see the Packers spending FA dollars on the line given how good they are at developing their own talent there.

For the sake of clarity, there are a few big names that I am assuming will be re-signed or tagged before the new league year (Antoine Winfield Jr, L'Jarius Sneed, Jaylon Johnson).

So with those positions in mind, here are the guys who appeal to me as a possible targets, ranked from most aggressive/expensive to most modest.

Running Backs:

-T. Pollard, Cowboys: Little tread on the tires and has been extremely efficient when not asked to be the bell cow. 1726 yards rush at a 5.3 YPC clip and 708 yards receiving at a 9.1 YPR clip in 2021-22 combined.

-D. Swift, Eagles: Just barely 25 years old with only 600 career carries on his body with plenty of juice as a runner.

-Z. Moss, Colts: Has shown a lot of ability with Indianapolis and would be highly capable as a #2 RB.

-A. Gibson, Commanders: Floundered in Washington after a promising rookie season, but he's still 25 with a lot of speed.

-N. Hines, Bills*: Potential roster cut for cap savings; missed 2023 with a knee injury; still 27 and was an effective multi-purpose back.

Linebacker:

-P. Queen, Ravens: 24 years old and attacks the LOS with a degree of instincts and aggression rarely seen in Green Bay.

-F. Luvu, Panthers: Extremely aggressive in attacking the running game and going after the QB.

-J. Brooks, Seahawks: Normally I would assume he would be retained, but it's an open question with a new staff.

-B. Cashman, Texans: Broke out in a major way in Houston in 2023.

-J. Jewell, Broncos: Stable, well-rounded veteran who would bring reliability.

-A. Al-Shaair, Titans: Run-game specialist.

-J. Baker, Dolphins*: Would need to be a cap casualty, but that's likely. Has a relationship with Campanile and would pair really effectively with McDuffie.

Cornerback:

-K. Fuller, Commanders: Fuller has some ability to play inside, outside, and maybe a little safety. He's older, but would bring a capable, versatile veteran presence.

-S. Murphy-Bunting, Titans: Murphy-Bunting also has inside/outside versatility.

-J. Okudah, Falcons: Okudah has failed to live up to the draft hype, but his highwater mark came under Hafley at OSU.

-R. Douglas, Bills*: The Bills are in a cap bind and can save 9M with no dead money if they reseal Rasul.

Safety:

-X. McKinney, Giants: McKinney has a lot of experience playing single high and is quite capable.

-K. Curl, Commanders: Young, well-rounded, and a highly capable.

-J. Whitehead, Jets: Lots of good reps in single-high; needs to have his tackling overhauled.

-G. Stone, Ravens: Similar story to Whitehead.

-D. Elliott, Dolphins: Has excelled, but in a Fangio style defense; unknown how he would operate otherwise.

-J. Blackmon, Colts: More of a box safety and slot defender for big nickel packages.

-B. Jones, Dolphins: Role player on defense and special teams stalwart.

-J. Chinn, Panthers: Highly talented reclamation project; probably a dime linebacker primarily.

-J. Simmons, Broncos*: Would have to be released by the cap-strapped Broncos, but is still a highly capable, well-rounded safety.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

Free Agency is slated to begin officially on 3/13. It would seem that the Packers will be in position to be a little bit more active than they were a year ago. They certainly don't have lots of room, but they have enough future flexibility to upgrade the roster in various ways. My guess is that they are going to seek to address major holes on the roster with free agents so that they aren't pigeon-holed in the draft. For that reason, I'm focusing primarily on the following positions: Running Back, Linebacker, Cornerback, Safety.

One could also include OL, but I just can't see the Packers spending FA dollars on the line given how good they are at developing their own talent there.

For the sake of clarity, there are a few big names that I am assuming will be re-signed or tagged before the new league year (Antoine Winfield Jr, L'Jarius Sneed, Jaylon Johnson).

So with those positions in mind, here are the guys who appeal to me as a possible targets, ranked from most aggressive/expensive to most modest.

Running Backs:

-T. Pollard, Cowboys: Little tread on the tires and has been extremely efficient when not asked to be the bell cow. 1726 yards rush at a 5.3 YPC clip and 708 yards receiving at a 9.1 YPR clip in 2021-22 combined.

-D. Swift, Eagles: Just barely 25 years old with only 600 career carries on his body with plenty of juice as a runner.

-Z. Moss, Colts: Has shown a lot of ability with Indianapolis and would be highly capable as a #2 RB.

-A. Gibson, Commanders: Floundered in Washington after a promising rookie season, but he's still 25 with a lot of speed.

-N. Hines, Bills*: Potential roster cut for cap savings; missed 2023 with a knee injury; still 27 and was an effective multi-purpose back.

Linebacker:

-P. Queen, Ravens: 24 years old and attacks the LOS with a degree of instincts and aggression rarely seen in Green Bay.

-F. Luvu, Panthers: Extremely aggressive in attacking the running game and going after the QB.

-J. Brooks, Seahawks: Normally I would assume he would be retained, but it's an open question with a new staff.

-B. Cashman, Texans: Broke out in a major way in Houston in 2023.

-J. Jewell, Broncos: Stable, well-rounded veteran who would bring reliability.

-A. Al-Shaair, Titans: Run-game specialist.

-J. Baker, Dolphins*: Would need to be a cap casualty, but that's likely. Has a relationship with Campanile and would pair really effectively with McDuffie.

Cornerback:

-K. Fuller, Commanders: Fuller has some ability to play inside, outside, and maybe a little safety. He's older, but would bring a capable, versatile veteran presence.

-S. Murphy-Bunting, Titans: Murphy-Bunting also has inside/outside versatility.

-J. Okudah, Falcons: Okudah has failed to live up to the draft hype, but his highwater mark came under Hafley at OSU.

-R. Douglas, Bills*: The Bills are in a cap bind and can save 9M with no dead money if they reseal Rasul.

Safety:

-X. McKinney, Giants: McKinney has a lot of experience playing single high and is quite capable.

-K. Curl, Commanders: Young, well-rounded, and a highly capable.

-J. Whitehead, Jets: Lots of good reps in single-high; needs to have his tackling overhauled.

-G. Stone, Ravens: Similar story to Whitehead.

-D. Elliott, Dolphins: Has excelled, but in a Fangio style defense; unknown how he would operate otherwise.

-J. Blackmon, Colts: More of a box safety and slot defender for big nickel packages.

-B. Jones, Dolphins: Role player on defense and special teams stalwart.

-J. Chinn, Panthers: Highly talented reclamation project; probably a dime linebacker primarily.

-J. Simmons, Broncos*: Would have to be released by the cap-strapped Broncos, but is still a highly capable, well-rounded safety.

No free agent running backs, please. Draft a guy...Lower miles, cheaper, might contribute on ST.

I wouldn't mind one veteran safety, however, at the right price. One GB could pair with a talented draft pick.

 

[tynimiller]

No free agent running backs, please. Draft a guy...Lower miles, cheaper, might contribute on ST.

I wouldn't mind one veteran safety, however, at the right price. One GB could pair with a talented draft pick.

To be fair in a position that is literally Anthony Johnson Jr and Zayne Anderson....you gotta sign more than one safety veteran. Now I know @Dantés geared this towards signings that are clear and above starters or HIGH level type 2s like RBs...but still.

I predict before the draft Gute at minimum will have signed two safeties. They could be just Owens and Ford...but we will not even enter draft with having signed only one IMO. Possible, sure, but I see it as VERY low likelihood.

 

[tynimiller]

@Dantés curious if you see value in pursuing Ogbah if/WHEN Miami cuts him to save a TON. He's never turned into a three down type, but pass rush veteran experienced in End play with a lot of ability in pressuring pockets.

He is done getting big money.

 

[tynimiller]

FTR I personally support a Gibson type signing than spending higher dollar on a Swift type at RB. We will likely be letting Jones' contract run as is which means a ton of money already spent on that room.

 

[Dantés]

@Dantés curious if you see value in pursuing Ogbah if/WHEN Miami cuts him to save a TON. He's never turned into a three down type, but pass rush veteran experienced in End play with a lot of ability in pressuring pockets.

He is done getting big money.

I don’t know what their plans are, but if they are keeping Smith and possibly using Brooks and/or Wooden some at end, I don’t really see that as the best resource allocation.

 

[Dantés]

No free agent running backs, please. Draft a guy...Lower miles, cheaper, might contribute on ST.

I wouldn't mind one veteran safety, however, at the right price. One GB could pair with a talented draft pick.

This RB draft class is not very good and they really need to find quality play there beyond Jones. The impact on the offense when they lacked him was huge. I hope they monitor the RB market and take advantage of a the depressed value.

 

[tynimiller]

I don’t know what their plans are, but if they are keeping Smith and possibly using Brooks and/or Wooden some at end, I don’t really see that as the best resource allocation.

Very true, and I think the assumption of use of Brooks and Wooden is all but guaranteed.

Be a little outside the box but you cut Smith post June 1st it is a lot of savings in cap this year and next with some cost shifted to 2025 cap...but that money I could see a world afford you Ogbah, Antonio Gibson and maybe a guy like Jonathan Owens back.....that construct a better team for 2024 and 2025 run while all our young weapons are under rookie deals than keeping Smith?

I know a vacuum thought but I see some merit to it...and FTR everyone knows my deep appreciation for Preston. I love the dude and think he actually sets a better edge than arguably any of our other edges consistently.

 

[tynimiller]

Truthfully...if GB wanted to do something they don't typically do...you get agreement from Bakh of release with not injury litigation, post june 1st cut Campbell and Preston you have around $40M of cap space.....IF you truly wanted to push hard NOW.

 

[Dantés]

Very true, and I think the assumption of use of Brooks and Wooden is all but guaranteed.

Be a little outside the box but you cut Smith post June 1st it is a lot of savings in cap this year and next with some cost shifted to 2025 cap...but that money I could see a world afford you Ogbah, Antonio Gibson and maybe a guy like Jonathan Owens back.....that construct a better team for 2024 and 2025 run while all our young weapons are under rookie deals than keeping Smith?

I know a vacuum thought but I see some merit to it...and FTR everyone knows my deep appreciation for Preston. I love the dude and think he actually sets a better edge than arguably any of our other edges consistently.

This is just a guess, but I think we will see them go hard after clear and obvious needs in free agency so that they put themselves in position not to have to draft for need later this year. So I expect some combination of RB, LB, and DB.

 

[Dantés]

If I was making a wish list that I think could be feasible, this is what I would like to see (assuming GB lets all their own players walk, which they should):

-X. McKinney, S, Giants: Gives you a stable, veteran presence who is capable of playing single-high and is still very young. I would estimate his contract at something like 4/60/25.

-D. Swift, RB, Eagles: Some legit explosive athleticism behind Jones who will have an appetite for sticking it to the Lions. Estimated at 3/21/10.

-J. Baker, LB, Dolphins: Dependent on him being released, reunited with Campanile and offers a great complement to McDuffie. Estimated at 3/21/10.

-J. Okudah, CB, Falcons: Reclamation project reunited with Hafley, who had him playing at an elite level in college. Estimated 1/4/1.5.

-B. Jones, S, Dolphins: Some veteran depth at safety who is still young and plays heavily on ST. Estimated 1/2/1.

The Swift move might not be feasible, but I keep coming back to the reality that they showed legit interest in Jonathan Taylor via trade, which implied a willingness to pay him. 7M AAV seems like a lot of money for a RB, but when you compare what you get out of the investment relative to other positions, it carries a lot of value. 7M at QB is Taylor Heinicke. At TE, it's Josh Oliver. At WR, it's somewhere between Russell Gage and Darius Slayton. On the OL, it's Connor McGovern.

This type of spending spree would require them to leverage future cap years, get out from under Bakhtiari, and do some re-working of other current contracts. But they could do it if they wanted to, and it would leave them wide open in the draft to just take the players they like the most.

 

[mradtke66]

I don’t know what their plans are, but if they are keeping Smith and possibly using Brooks and/or Wooden some at end, I don’t really see that as the best resource allocation.

I have to assume the primary pass rushing ends are going to be Smith, Gary, LVN. Brooks and Wooden situationally based on down and distance, so likely agree here.

That said, if you can get an 8+ sack guy, you probably should. You can't have too many pass rushers, especially with Gary's size--he can slide in 3T in Dime without problem.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Truthfully...if GB wanted to do something they don't typically do...you get agreement from Bakh of release with not injury litigation, post june 1st cut Campbell and Preston you have around $40M of cap space.....IF you truly wanted to push hard NOW.

What's Bakhtiari's motivation for doing that, though? From what I've been reading these past few months, it sounds as though he and his agents have shrewdly and consistently structured his contracts in such a way as to protect him from exactly this sort of situation.

But I know very little about the finer details of free agency and contract negotiations, so there's probably a lot I'm missing.

 

[Poppa San]

What's Bakhtiari's motivation for doing that, though? From what I've been reading these past few months, it sounds as though he and his agents have shrewdly and consistently structured his contracts in such a way as to protect him from exactly this sort of situation.

But I know very little about the finer details of free agency and contract negotiations, so there's probably a lot I'm missing.

The roster bonus is almost half this year's money. Cut him before the bonus and most he gets is part of the salary in an injury settlement. Cut him after June first with not contesting a "no injury settlement" and he gets the roster bonus and the team splits his dead cap over two seasons. Plus he can be signed for the year.

 

[Thirteen Below]

The roster bonus is almost half this year's money. Cut him before the bonus and most he gets is part of the salary in an injury settlement. Cut him after June first with not contesting a "no injury settlement" and he gets the roster bonus and the team splits his dead cap over two seasons. Plus he can be signed for the year.

Interesting idea. Thanks; I haven't seen anyone else sugest that yet.

Bak's a team player and a solid man. You guys make this sound like the sort of thing he might be willing to do; I'm not sure how many other options he'll have for playing football this year, and at his age, this may be the last year he can realistically get a shot.

 

[Jayzee1981]

Would love McKinney at S.. Would love a compliment to A. Jones (sign him as well.) Okudah sign at the corner. Thats it. Draft Oline help, WR, LB and call it a day. I'd be happy with this team's chances at least for a division title... Am happy our new shiny DC got his staff early. They inherited a potentially special D. Again, really excited for the scheme change. Haven't commented lately, but this league is diverse enough to where we can legit be a serious contender. Sooner than later.

 

[AKCheese]

I thought the post June 1st cut only spreads the signing bonus money if there are future years (2025 and beyond)on the deal, referred to as accelerated earnings. I think the $20Mil signing bonus remainder hits this year no matter when we cut him because there’s no “acceleration” - it’s the final year of his deal. (?) Maybe I’m misreading. So the only way to save $9M is to cut him before 1 March and let the chips fall where they may on an injury settlement. If he wants to play/can play SOMEwhere this year GB would recoup part of his 2024 salary ($10M). Basically $600K per game he’s projected to be capable of playing. It wouldnt make sense to pay him $9M (roster bonus) hoping you can then possibly save part of another $10M.

 

[SudsMcBucky]

The roster bonus is almost half this year's money. Cut him before the bonus and most he gets is part of the salary in an injury settlement. Cut him after June first with not contesting a "no injury settlement" and he gets the roster bonus and the team splits his dead cap over two seasons. Plus he can be signed for the year.

This isn't correct. There is no splitting the dead cap over 2 seasons if he's cut post June 1 as he's in the last year of his contract. The whole enchilada hits for this year. The only way to lower his cap number is a restructure or extension.

 

[PikeBadger]

To be fair in a position that is literally Anthony Johnson Jr and Zayne Anderson....you gotta sign more than one safety veteran. Now I know @Dantés geared this towards signings that are clear and above starters or HIGH level type 2s like RBs...but still.

I predict before the draft Gute at minimum will have signed two safeties. They could be just Owens and Ford...but we will not even enter draft with having signed only one IMO. Possible, sure, but I see it as VERY low likelihood.

I think it's highly likely the 2nd safety signing would come after June 1. Cheaper at that time and we'll likely have more cap space to work with.

 

[AKCheese]

Do we have to reserve cap space to sign our draft picks? Or can that be done with money freed up post June 1?

 

[Firethorn1001]

Do we have to reserve cap space to sign our draft picks? Or can that be done with money freed up post June 1?

Don't believe it can be used with June 1st money since I don't believe that money is realized as a cap savings until that point. I think the calculated cap space required is computed after the draft and then allocated towards the cap at that time post draft.