My point was, as this play illustrates, that Rodgers cannot be certain he'll get the call. This isn't the first time he hasn't gotten the call. He knows this is a risk/reward proposition.
Let's say he's right about the free play 80% of the time, which I think is about right. That still argues for avoiding the INT, as he typically does on any other pass. If the chance of completion is something around 33% or less from that distance with that coverage, whereas putting the ball in interception range involves a 20% risk of not getting the call, that's not a favorable proposition.
Sure...Rodgers thought he had a free play. That does reduce the perceived risk, no doubt. But that does not necessarily make for good odds. Given Rodgers typical risk aversion on non-free play passes, which is uncanny given the high completion rate, this throw does not reflect his typical conservative approach to interception avoidance.
Personally, I prefer to take the position, the Green Bay Packers have not been quite good enough in those close call situations. Instead of pointing fingers at one guy all the time, be he Aaron Rodgers or Brandon Bostick, let's concentrate on getting better and deeper at EVERY position on the 53-man roster until we're so loaded that no single player's bad day or even bad moment cannot be overcome by the other 52.
