Can the Packers D stop the Pittsburgh Offense?

JBlood

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Rothlisberger is tough, and better running around. Capers and the D will have their hands full, almost as full as the Steelers' with our boy.

We grade out better offensively passing the ball; and defensively defending the pass--and these are the categories most closely related to wins.
 

GoSlash27

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Rothlisberger is tough, and better running around. Capers and the D will have their hands full, almost as full as the Steelers' with our boy.

We grade out better offensively passing the ball; and defensively defending the pass--and these are the categories most closely related to wins.

Funny, I've always believed that running and run defense were most closely related to wins. I'll have to scope that out...
 

bozz_2006

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Slash, if you check that I'd love to see the trend for the last ten years. Wondering if it has gone from run D and O to pass D and O in that time period.
 

GoSlash27

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10 years is a tall order. It'd keep me occupied, but still...

Here's what I've found so far:

2010 correlation between category and wins, in order of win percentage

#1 Run defense. Top 5 teams combined for 55-22
#2 Run offense. Top 5 teams combined for 47-33
#3 Pass offense. Top 5 teams combined for 46-34
#4 Pass defense. Top 5 teams combined for 42-38.

I can work backwards for a few years, but I guarantee my ADD is gonna kick in...
 

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Funny, I've always believed that running and run defense were most closely related to wins. I'll have to scope that out...
In the past, yes.

But nowadays, it's all about the QB and stopping the opposing QB.

Of course, the 3-4 that both Capers and LeBeau employ focus primarily on stopping the run to force favorable 3rd down distances.

But that's another issue.
 

longtimefan

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We stopped the Eagles and Falcons, I think we will be fine.


Eagles eh.

.but Falcons on their turf with no trouble at all is more for me a better win..

They had the offensive power to knock up the points but they only got 14? ( kick off return not included)

So IF we can play like that vs the Steelers we should be able to hold the Steelers under 20
 
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Check out Advanced NFL Stats: What Makes Teams Win? 3

Here's the summary:


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Offensive passing efficiency and defensive pass efficiency are no. 1 and 2 factors that correlate with winning.

While I sometimes read Advanced NFL statistics, do not put too much stock in their analysis. They make a ton of mistakes.

In this study, let me point out a few things that should raise red flags.

On the opening page, they discount rushing attempts per game because teams that are winning tend to rush more. Now, I agree with this. Running does not translate to winning because teams with the lead will run. They decide to use yards per pass attempt and massage it into a passing efficiency number. The problem with that is pretty simple. The idea that a team that produces more yards per attempt will win is pretty self-explanatory. The more yards a team can average per pass should easily state that they make more big plays. Big plays, splash plays, usually translate into scores. The more a team can complete passes down the field, the greater their chance of winning.

Second, are you telling me that the use of yards per pass attempt or "passing efficiency" is being evenly evaluated against yards per rush attempt? What is your baseline to make these numbers equal? A run of 4 yards or more is considered a success, but you better throw for more than 4 yards. There has to be some type of way to correlate the numbers. I am certain it would decrease the importance of passing or increase the importance of rushing.

Third, on the final page, he mentions using a linear regression analysis to judge these. The problem I have with his data set is simple, he takes sacks out of the passing data, but does not do anything with interceptions in this "passing efficiency" number. Instead, he gives it a separate category. The two are not independent of each other. If you do not pass, you do not throw interceptions. Therefore, because the two are related and given separate values, it creates multicollinearity in the data. It is also peculiar that he standardizes the variables after doing the multiple regression. It makes me wonder if he handled his outliers, how many standard deviations he uses, and how he performed his standardization. It can become very unreliable when you start manipulating the data.

And, let's also not forget, every time you do some type of statistical evaluation, everyone adds ceterus paribus, all other things being equal. All other things are never equal, they always have bearing on the data at hand.
 

longtimefan

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That won't mean much for this game. We stopped the Falcons as well. The fact we were able to score 24-30 points vs the very good Jets and Ravens' defenses also doesn't mean anything for this game.

Since these teams are so evenly matched, I truly believe the game will simply come down to which team executes better on this Sunday. If one team makes multiple mistakes, I doubt they can overcome it.


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Even if Pouncey is playing, the Packers are still going to get in the backfield. Either by blitzing or just manhandling their guy at the line. It is hard to sack Big Ben but he is known to fumble the ball once or twice so there are opportunities to get a takeaway. Mendenhall is the key for them. If the Packers can contain him, they will contain that offense. I will take our DBs over their WRs. Wallace is extremely fast but so is Shields. Shields just has to stay the course and he might need extra help be it Collins or Peprah back there with him. I really think Matthews is going to have a good game and C-Wood can taste that championship so he is going to go balls out. If we only give up 14 points, I will be satisfied with that.
 

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While I sometimes read Advanced NFL statistics, do not put too much stock in their analysis. They make a ton of mistakes.

In this study, let me point out a few things that should raise red flags.

On the opening page, they discount rushing attempts per game because teams that are winning tend to rush more. Now, I agree with this. Running does not translate to winning because teams with the lead will run. They decide to use yards per pass attempt and massage it into a passing efficiency number. The problem with that is pretty simple. The idea that a team that produces more yards per attempt will win is pretty self-explanatory. The more yards a team can average per pass should easily state that they make more big plays. Big plays, splash plays, usually translate into scores. The more a team can complete passes down the field, the greater their chance of winning.

Second, are you telling me that the use of yards per pass attempt or "passing efficiency" is being evenly evaluated against yards per rush attempt? What is your baseline to make these numbers equal? A run of 4 yards or more is considered a success, but you better throw for more than 4 yards. There has to be some type of way to correlate the numbers. I am certain it would decrease the importance of passing or increase the importance of rushing.

Third, on the final page, he mentions using a linear regression analysis to judge these. The problem I have with his data set is simple, he takes sacks out of the passing data, but does not do anything with interceptions in this "passing efficiency" number. Instead, he gives it a separate category. The two are not independent of each other. If you do not pass, you do not throw interceptions. Therefore, because the two are related and given separate values, it creates multicollinearity in the data. It is also peculiar that he standardizes the variables after doing the multiple regression. It makes me wonder if he handled his outliers, how many standard deviations he uses, and how he performed his standardization. It can become very unreliable when you start manipulating the data.

And, let's also not forget, every time you do some type of statistical evaluation, everyone adds ceterus paribus, all other things being equal. All other things are never equal, they always have bearing on the data at hand.
Here's my rundown of your offense vs. our defense:

1. LOS - if Pouncey is out, you are going to have trouble with our front 3, especially with Raji up the middle. Raji is having a breakout year and a career postseason. He's a big, strong guy, and sticking a backup in to block him is not only creating a matchup problem in the center, but also runs the risk of a botched snap or two. The way we mix up blitz packages, we can have Matthews coming in, or dropping back, and the same thing goes for Woodson. Jenkins should be good for at least 1 sack and a few hurries.

2. QB - here's where I think you can counter our blitz and our push at the LOS. Ben has been known to do well under pressure and outside of the pocket. If he can avoid our blitz and our pass rush, he can have a field day as the D becomes vulnerable to big plays if the pass rush doesn't get enough pressure, or the pressure is avoided. I know Ben has the capability to take advantage of that. He's accurate, has a big arm, and can run...all three characteristics that make for a VERY dangerous QB outside of the pocket. If we hit him a few times and rattle his nerves a bit (not injure him, just make him nervous), we can control this.

3. RB - Where you really have our number. Our biggest issue on defense this year has been bringing guys down. Powerful running backs just keep pushing and our guys can't get them to the ground. Mendenhall has shown a lot of promise this year, he's got power, some breakaway speed, and good moves (dare I say, like a young LT?). He's dangerous, but if Capers plays it right, we could be able to limit his yardage. If your play calling catches Capers off guard, Mendenhall will have a field day.

4. WRs and Secondary - This is where our major strengths on defense lie. Tramon Williams has emerged as a truly shutdown corner. Right up there with the likes of Darrelle Revis and Nnamdi Asomugha. His play has been phenomenal this year, and I think he can keep Wallace in check, maybe giving up one big play because heck, the guy is fast. Woodson and Shields will cover Ward. Woodson is pretty good covering the possession receivers like Ward, and as long as he's in coverage and isn't blitzing, Hines will get frustrated. I don't know much about your third WR, so I'll leave that up to speculation.

5. TE - It's been an issue for us all season because we all too often leave the middle of the field wide open. I don't see that changing much during this game, and if Ben sees that, Miller could have a huge game.

All in all, our teams made it this far because they are the best of their respected divisions. We played (and beat) all of the best teams in our conference, all highly touted teams (Eagles, Bears, Falcons) that we took down on the road. We're here because we're the best, and we match up well against each other. This is going to be a GREAT F****** GAME.
 

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While I sometimes read Advanced NFL statistics, do not put too much stock in their analysis. They make a ton of mistakes.

In this study, let me point out a few things that should raise red flags.

On the opening page, they discount rushing attempts per game because teams that are winning tend to rush more. Now, I agree with this. Running does not translate to winning because teams with the lead will run. They decide to use yards per pass attempt and massage it into a passing efficiency number. The problem with that is pretty simple. The idea that a team that produces more yards per attempt will win is pretty self-explanatory. The more yards a team can average per pass should easily state that they make more big plays. Big plays, splash plays, usually translate into scores. The more a team can complete passes down the field, the greater their chance of winning.

Second, are you telling me that the use of yards per pass attempt or "passing efficiency" is being evenly evaluated against yards per rush attempt? What is your baseline to make these numbers equal? A run of 4 yards or more is considered a success, but you better throw for more than 4 yards. There has to be some type of way to correlate the numbers. I am certain it would decrease the importance of passing or increase the importance of rushing.

Third, on the final page, he mentions using a linear regression analysis to judge these. The problem I have with his data set is simple, he takes sacks out of the passing data, but does not do anything with interceptions in this "passing efficiency" number. Instead, he gives it a separate category. The two are not independent of each other. If you do not pass, you do not throw interceptions. Therefore, because the two are related and given separate values, it creates multicollinearity in the data. It is also peculiar that he standardizes the variables after doing the multiple regression. It makes me wonder if he handled his outliers, how many standard deviations he uses, and how he performed his standardization. It can become very unreliable when you start manipulating the data.

And, let's also not forget, every time you do some type of statistical evaluation, everyone adds ceterus paribus, all other things being equal. All other things are never equal, they always have bearing on the data at hand.

It's been too many years since I took statistics so I don't understand his methods as well as you, but I like Advanced NFL Stats' try at making football a science. Like all games there are always random events that affect the outcome (in fact "luck" is another topic Burke has looked into). I suspect, based on the reams of data he's worked, that his analyses are more often right than wrong.
 

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This seems like a pretty ordinary Steelers team to me.

Even if Pouncey plays, which I think he won't, they're not going to control Raji or anyone else. We're going to be all over the ****** and Mendenhall.

If Rodgers gets time, it's over early and we can relax for a change.

Payback time....
 

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The stat I like is the Packers have not trailed by more than 7. Despite the normous injuries numbers, we've been in every game and could easily be undefeated with a bit of luck.

The fact I like the most, is the Packers arrived in Atlanta and were a play away from blowing out the Bears in Chicago....a very, very, tough thing for the Packers to do.

More important than stats is the appearance that teams like the Eagles, Falcons, Bears and Steelers think they're tougher than we are. And when they play us, they're shocked.

:happy0005:
 

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The stat I like is the Packers have not trailed by more than 7. Despite the normous injuries numbers, we've been in every game and could easily be undefeated with a bit of luck.

The fact I like the most, is the Packers arrived in Atlanta and were a play away from blowing out the Bears in Chicago....a very, very, tough thing for the Packers to do.

More important than stats is the appearance that teams like the Eagles, Falcons, Bears and Steelers think they're tougher than we are. And when they play us, they're shocked.

:happy0005:
You're blowing smoke too soon.
 
T

TMC

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It's been too many years since I took statistics so I don't understand his methods as well as you, but I like Advanced NFL Stats' try at making football a science. Like all games there are always random events that affect the outcome (in fact "luck" is another topic Burke has looked into). I suspect, based on the reams of data he's worked, that his analyses are more often right than wrong.

I went through some of his sack data one time, he did not even have the correct number of sacks for the individual players.

Then, there are some questions as to his methods of doing what he calls a linear regression, which is actually a multiple linear regression model. I have a degree in Economics, we lived working multiple linear regression models in my Econometrics class. You have to have a specific computer program to handle all the data and then, even after it works it, it takes you hours to make sure the data was correct, the independent variables were not redundant, and the outliers did not skew the data. Then, once it is all said and done, you have to weigh in the standard deviation and its importance.

So, again, while it is nice reading, I would not put too much into it. I do think that YPA for a QB is a great indicator alone of success because it simply shows that when you throw, you get more yards in the passing game per attempt.

But, I also know that IF you lack a defense, your YPA in the passing game should be up, because you are behind and throwing to catch up. Phillip Rivers was #1 in the NFL in YPA this season, the Chargers did not even make the playoffs.
 

Burgh Splat Lambert

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Eagles eh.

.but Falcons on their turf with no trouble at all is more for me a better win..

They had the offensive power to knock up the points but they only got 14? ( kick off return not included)

So IF we can play like that vs the Steelers we should be able to hold the Steelers under 20
What makes you think you're gonna score more than 20?
 
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TMC

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Here's my rundown of your offense vs. our defense:

1. LOS - if Pouncey is out, you are going to have trouble with our front 3, especially with Raji up the middle. Raji is having a breakout year and a career postseason. He's a big, strong guy, and sticking a backup in to block him is not only creating a matchup problem in the center, but also runs the risk of a botched snap or two. The way we mix up blitz packages, we can have Matthews coming in, or dropping back, and the same thing goes for Woodson. Jenkins should be good for at least 1 sack and a few hurries.

2. QB - here's where I think you can counter our blitz and our push at the LOS. Ben has been known to do well under pressure and outside of the pocket. If he can avoid our blitz and our pass rush, he can have a field day as the D becomes vulnerable to big plays if the pass rush doesn't get enough pressure, or the pressure is avoided. I know Ben has the capability to take advantage of that. He's accurate, has a big arm, and can run...all three characteristics that make for a VERY dangerous QB outside of the pocket. If we hit him a few times and rattle his nerves a bit (not injure him, just make him nervous), we can control this.

3. RB - Where you really have our number. Our biggest issue on defense this year has been bringing guys down. Powerful running backs just keep pushing and our guys can't get them to the ground. Mendenhall has shown a lot of promise this year, he's got power, some breakaway speed, and good moves (dare I say, like a young LT?). He's dangerous, but if Capers plays it right, we could be able to limit his yardage. If your play calling catches Capers off guard, Mendenhall will have a field day.

4. WRs and Secondary - This is where our major strengths on defense lie. Tramon Williams has emerged as a truly shutdown corner. Right up there with the likes of Darrelle Revis and Nnamdi Asomugha. His play has been phenomenal this year, and I think he can keep Wallace in check, maybe giving up one big play because heck, the guy is fast. Woodson and Shields will cover Ward. Woodson is pretty good covering the possession receivers like Ward, and as long as he's in coverage and isn't blitzing, Hines will get frustrated. I don't know much about your third WR, so I'll leave that up to speculation.

5. TE - It's been an issue for us all season because we all too often leave the middle of the field wide open. I don't see that changing much during this game, and if Ben sees that, Miller could have a huge game.

All in all, our teams made it this far because they are the best of their respected divisions. We played (and beat) all of the best teams in our conference, all highly touted teams (Eagles, Bears, Falcons) that we took down on the road. We're here because we're the best, and we match up well against each other. This is going to be a GREAT F****** GAME.

I hate to quote a long post, but if I answer this without the quote, someone will jump in not thinking I am responding. I'll take them point by point.

1-I am not exceptionally worried about Raji on Legursky. Legs has started games for the Steelers this season at both guard spots. He struggled last week with snaps because he has not played or practiced there all season, but I think he will be fine with his snaps. He has practiced every day with Casey Hampton over his head and while Raji certainly is coming into his own, Hampton is a multiple time Pro Bowler and is what Raji aspires to be. It has been reported that Legs is playing exceptionally well in practice AND Pouncey is out of the boot, walking with no crutches. Today is the day to find out if he plays. Finally, if Raji gives some trouble, we just double the nose as the Pack do not bring heat in the middle often.

2-What a lot of people have not noticed about Ben lately, he has gotten even better in areas he once struggled. He now sees the blitz better and will unload on quick slants and quick hitters. Two of Mike Wallace's long TDs were quick slants where his speed split the safeties for the long play. Ben is also taking some shorter stuff. And, they have some veterans that have taken it up a notch. Miller is playing excellent football. Adams will be fired up being in his first Super Bowl. Mendenhall has ratcheted it up a notch. This is a veteran team that knows when to get it done.

3-Mendy has been playing lights out in the playoffs. He is running behind his pads. The upside is, Redman is actually a better power guy. He just does not have that break away speed that Mendy has (ran a 4.41 forty at the combine and was reported to run a 4.35 prior to the draft). Then, they have Moore, who is an excellent 3rd down, change of pace guy. He has a knack for getting first downs. It is a good mix for the Steelers. All three can play in any instance and they will call their numbers. All three are willing pass blockers as well. I think this is being over looked by a lot of people. All the Steelers TEs and RBs are excellent at blitz pickup and all the Steelers WRs and TEs block well in the run game. Balance is the key.

4-Tramon Williams won't stay with Wallace. The Ravens put their best corner on him and kept safety help over the top. The Jets would not put Revis on him, they opted for the faster Cromartie, then put safety help over the top. Tramon Williams did not break 4.5 prior to the draft. In fact, one 40 time at his pro day was greater than 4.6. His best time, if I recall, was 4.57. On a good day, he runs a 4.45 at best. That won't cut it with Wallace. His game speed is as good as any player. He is in the class of guys like Deion Sanders and Chris Johnson. Sam Shields may be the only guy that has the speed to run with him. The huge advantage is, Wallace has developed into an excellent route runner this season and he gets off the line as good as any WR. I cannot tell you how many WRs I scouted (once ran a draft website). Wallace is special. He still awes me. As for the 3rd WR, I like Sanders. He is a lot like Santonio Holmes, but is a rookie and makes rookie mistakes at times. The thing is, he and Antonio Brown, the other rookie, have made HUGE plays in clutch situations. I trust them and the coaches do as well. The game is not too big for them.

5-Miller has been playing unreal in the playoffs. It is like he has stepped it up. There are a few players that were called upon lately, like the OL in the run game, Miller and the WRs, and Mendenhall. Mendy and Miller have had two playoff games that are unreal. It is like they are completely different players.

I think the intangible that the Steelers have is experience. Flozell Adams was talking about this team early this week. He stated that, in the Ravens game, when they were down at the half by 14, he remembered back to his Dallas days and thought, "here we go again". He said in Dallas,that would be it, it was over. He gets in the locker room and the Steeler players are pumped up, stating they are not out of this, get up and play, we can come back, we can win this. Flozell said he had never been in an atmosphere like this. Polamalu stated they had to take the game over on defense that they had played poorly. They had allowed 98 yards of total offense and were pissed they played poorly. Then, they crushed the Ravens creating 3 turnovers on the next 4 drives and allowed a total of 9 plays on those 4 drives.

IMO, that is the biggest difference.
 

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What makes you think you're gonna score more than 20?

Rodgers is very good at pregame blitz reads and adjusting blocking protection, he has a fast release and some have said havent seen one that fast since Marino.

We spread your D out with 4 or 5 wr sets, I dont believe you have the guys on D to stop that

Even tho most dont like to admit it I believe the Packers love turf and play much faster on it..That helps our WR and our D..

People bring up the fact Rodgers had a bad game vs the Bears..But they failed to notice he ALWAYS has bad games vs the Bears...He averages like 1 td per game vs them..Its their scheme, now can Pitts duplicate that? Dont think so as evident to the 09 game

That game was on your field and he played very good

His ability to roll out and create passes will be a BIG factor he can and will be able to pick apart a D doing that..You need to stop that

Running game? I dont think it will be anything that will be great...But if our passing game gets going, Starks may just have a great game
 

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I went through some of his sack data one time, he did not even have the correct number of sacks for the individual players.

Then, there are some questions as to his methods of doing what he calls a linear regression, which is actually a multiple linear regression model. I have a degree in Economics, we lived working multiple linear regression models in my Econometrics class. You have to have a specific computer program to handle all the data and then, even after it works it, it takes you hours to make sure the data was correct, the independent variables were not redundant, and the outliers did not skew the data. Then, once it is all said and done, you have to weigh in the standard deviation and its importance.

So, again, while it is nice reading, I would not put too much into it. I do think that YPA for a QB is a great indicator alone of success because it simply shows that when you throw, you get more yards in the passing game per attempt.

But, I also know that IF you lack a defense, your YPA in the passing game should be up, because you are behind and throwing to catch up. Phillip Rivers was #1 in the NFL in YPA this season, the Chargers did not even make the playoffs.

Oops, you just lost all credibility with me.
 

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IMO, that is the biggest difference.

Don't worry about the long quote...you can just quote my name next time. I quoted yours first, but now that I think of it, this seems easy enough.

Raji has been playing at an incredibly high level and has been getting pressure up the middle all on his own. If I were a Steeler fan, I'd be worried about him even with our starting center in. He's just becoming too much of a force. I can't buy the argument that "Legs" has faced worse in Hampton, because practice is an entirely different world than a real time game. It's faster, and an opposing defense in game has far more motivation and push to get to the QB. It's simply not comparable.

I agree with what you've said about Ben. All accusations aside, he's truly a game changer and can make plays with his feet. We're going to need to control him with our pass rush and coverage, which is entirely possible. Since this defense hasn't matched up with you guys, I can't predict what will happen, only what can happen.

Again, you guys have the advantage in the running game. If we can make those tackles, we can contain it. The problem is, we haven't been making those tackles...hence our poor performance against the run. Our guys have been in place though.

I may be predicting the coverage assignments wrong. Maybe Shields will cover Wallace, in which case he does have the speed, but his inexperience can be worrisome. I'd bet you see us rolling a safety towards him more often than not. However, that leaves our better coverage guys in Williams and Woodson down under to make sure that Ward and Miller don't see the ball too often. No matter how you put it, we certainly have the ability to match up on your receiving corps and minimize damage done by them, save for maybe 1 or 2 big gashes.

Experience- now this is something truly debateable. Does it really help? Yes, it calms players nerves. They are well situated to the big stage, don't get overwhelmed by the gravity of the whole situation, and are supremely focused. However, Super Bowl experience only gets you so far. What about experience facing a defense like ours? You faced us last year, but the defense we had last year was made up of a completely different cast of characters. Williams, Green, Walden, Shields...all new faces this year at their starting positions. Clay is playing at a higher level, as is AJ Hawk, who has now adjusted to the scheme. Woodson doesn't even play the same position and style he did last year, he's more of a roamer who can blitz of the line or drop back into coverage. The other facet to think about when it comes to experience is that many of your guys have that coveted ring...our guys WANT it more than ever. I'm not suggesting that your guys don't want it, but maybe ours have just a little added drive, because they don't have rings and many of them, being older or backups, see this as their only/last chance to play in the big game. It's interesting, experience can work in many different ways.
 

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But, I also know that IF you lack a defense, your YPA in the passing game should be up, because you are behind and throwing to catch up. Phillip Rivers was #1 in the NFL in YPA this season, the Chargers did not even make the playoffs.
The Packers never trailed by more than 7 points yet Rodgers has 8.3, which is great.

The Steelers were the #1 D and Ben has 8.2.
 

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