Slash, if you check that I'd love to see the trend for the last ten years. Wondering if it has gone from run D and O to pass D and O in that time period.
Funny, I've always believed that running and run defense were most closely related to wins. I'll have to scope that out...
just check the stats since 2000- looks like the team with the most rush yards did win, 9 out of 10 times in the SB.
But what we need to remember, is that in many ways, it was won through the air, probably because the defense is so good on the ground. By that I mean, it was the pass that opened up the run.
The real question here is, has GB's offense been good enough, that they have masked some of the problems of the defense against the run-Making other teams resort to passing the ball to play catch up, which GB is set to defend against.
The AFC team that has done that the most is the Pats*. Yet, we saw in the AFC divisional game, that strategy is quite dangerous against a team that can stop the pass, as the Jets can. As a result, the Jets were able to use both the air and the ground to put points on the board-and send the Pats* home again (interesting they haven't won a championship-or starting the next year, a playoff game since spygate--- hmmm, that's for another thread).
The key stat-IMO, is the Average Yards per Carry, and GB ranks 31st in that stat. Now, Pittsburgh has only ranked 17th for average Y/R here, but we also played against the number 3, 4, 7, 9, 10 (twice), 12 (twice) teams-which means we have ran against the top 1/3rd of rush defenses half our games-and still had almost the average rush yards for the league.
Now, if Capers sees that, and commits the LB's to stopping the run, and a safety, then it will be pretty difficult to account for Heath Miller on the post routes in a play-action pass, or Sanders and Brown midfield as Wallace attempts to stretch the field. The issue of course isn't your CB's, which are very good, but our ability to have an uncovered receiver due to the commitment to stop the run.
Of course, to be fair, we have the opposite problem, which was exposed by the Saints and Pats*. You all have the offense to stretch our defense out and get them thinking pass defense. In doing so, the screen pass/draw play ends up becoming very dangerous to our defense.
In short, I think the problem really just one that is inherent in a 3-4 scheme. You either lean heavier on stopping the run, or the pass. I think 4-3 schemes can be more balanced, but not necessarily (as easily) as dominant in either facet.
So-- IMO, the game will hinge on these questions-
1. Can GB push the score to the point where Pittsburgh has to focus more on the passing game, and play into GB's strengths?
2. Conversely, can Pittsburgh's defense stop the pass enough, that the offense can exploit GB's run defense issues?
3. Which coach, Capers or Lebeau will be able to out duel the opposing Offensive Coordinator-and strengthen the sagging part of their defense.
Both offensives have the ability to take advantage of a mistake. This game will hinge on mistakes on the defense- and neither team's defense are really in a giving mood when it comes to mistakes.
