2023 Draft Talk

[Pokerbrat2000]

It is the massive lack of real true leverage in the scenario which is why I still think the biggest return immediately will be players provided in it not picks and conditional picks in future is where potentially Day 1 picks come into play.

I am pretty sure that the Jets are continually reminding the Packers that they are willing to take on a lot, if not all of the money, that comes with Rodgers contract. That alone is worth quite a bit to the Packers. As much as I would love the Jets #13 pick, I don't think they will hand it over. I would propose something like this:

- Jets receive: Rodgers, Packers #15 pick

- Packers receive: Jets #13 pick, #43 pick, Elijah Moore, 2024 Conditional pick: 3rd round if Rodgers retires B4 draft, 1st round if Jets make the playoffs.

Whatever happens, I don't think that the Packers want this deal to fall through, unless they know of another team that might be interested. If the Jets were smart, they might drop hints to the media that they are also looking into offering Lamar Jackson a contract.

 

[Heyjoe4]

It is the massive lack of real true leverage in the scenario which is why I still think the biggest return immediately will be players provided in it not picks and conditional picks in future is where potentially Day 1 picks come into play.

So do you think the Packers are asking for players in return for Rodgers?

 

[Heyjoe4]

I am pretty sure that the Jets are continually reminding the Packers that they are willing to take on a lot, if not all of the money, that comes with Rodgers contract. That alone is worth quite a bit to the Packers. As much as I would love the Jets #13 pick, I don't think they will hand it over. I would propose something like this:

- Jets receive: Rodgers, Packers #15 pick

- Packers receive: Jets #13 pick, #43 pick, Elijah Moore, 2024 Conditional pick: 3rd round if Rodgers retires B4 draft, 1st round if Jets make the playoffs.

Whatever happens, I don't think that the Packers want this deal to fall through, unless they know of another team that might be interested. If the Jets were smart, they might drop hints to the media that they are also looking into offering Lamar Jackson a contract.

Hmmm, that's an interesting trade scenario. IMO, finding impact players in a draft starts to drop off between picks 10 and 15. The rest, in the first round through first half of second round, are solid players, just a few steps behind the earliest picks.

So the Packers could still grab Branch at #13 and one of the top 4 or 5 TEs at #43 (which is what I'd like to see happen). Elijah Moore would add some experience to a still very young WR group.

The Jets keep a good first round pick and get Rodgers. I mean they are in win NOW mode and that scenario is attractive, or it should be.

What I like best is that it's reasonable. Well, maybe that's not an advantage given that Murphy is probably too involved. This should be Gluten's call, but we know how Murphy likes attention.

 

[tynimiller]

So do you think the Packers are asking for players in return for Rodgers?

I think players back are part of it. I think on the whole GB views Rodgers value in a trade vastly higher than Jets do just across the board.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think players back are part of it. I think on the whole GB views Rodgers value in a trade vastly higher than Jets do just across the board.

Agreed. I'd like to see them get Elijah Moore, but certainly get the Jets #13 pick. It may be the player holding things up. But yeah, I'm sure the Packers view Rodgers much higher than the Jets. Anyway, I'll be very disappointed if the deal doesn't include the Jets #13 pick. Poker's suggestion is pretty intriguing, and lets the Jets keep a first round pick.

Poker - call Murphy ASAP.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Poker - call Murphy ASAP.

How do you know that I'm not MM

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think players back are part of it. I think on the whole GB views Rodgers value in a trade vastly higher than Jets do just across the board.

I thought so too (Jets viewing value as less), but I am starting to agree with some posters and the media. Now that Rodgers confirmed he wants to play for the Jets and their fans and the media are pumping it up as finally having a great QB, something they haven't had since Joe Namath, the pressure is on the Jets to close the deal. The Jets have often been the punchline of jokes and I really don't see Woody allowing this to be the next one....they will cave.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Wasn't that long ago that there was talk of the Packers maybe drafting former Packer Herb Adderley's third cousin, Nasir. Instead, they took Savage in the first that draft.

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[tynimiller]

I thought so too (Jets viewing value as less), but I am starting to agree with some posters and the media. Now that Rodgers confirmed he wants to play for the Jets and their fans and the media are pumping it up as finally having a great QB, something they haven't had since Joe Namath, the pressure is on the Jets to close the deal. The Jets have often been the punchline of jokes and I really don't see Woody allowing this to be the next one....they will cave.

I wasn't saying anything on pressure or leverage as I think both sides have equal parts of none and a lot

 

[OldSchool101]

Hmmm, that's an interesting trade scenario. IMO, finding impact players in a draft starts to drop off between picks 10 and 15. The rest, in the first round through first half of second round, are solid players, just a few steps behind the earliest picks.

So the Packers could still grab Branch at #13 and one of the top 4 or 5 TEs at #43 (which is what I'd like to see happen). Elijah Moore would add some experience to a still very young WR group.

The Jets keep a good first round pick and get Rodgers. I mean they are in win NOW mode and that scenario is attractive, or it should be.

What I like best is that it's reasonable. Well, maybe that's not an advantage given that Murphy is probably too involved. This should be Gluten's call, but we know how Murphy likes attention.

At this point Id be agreeable to that scenario. They may grab Cobb anyway for a year or two.

Worst case they are successful and give up a later 1st rounder in the future. Elijah Moore is like giving up a 2nd Rounder.
That’s essentially TWO 2nd Rounders now and a guaranteed later 3rd Rounder for likely 2 years rental on a HOF QB

 

[OldSchool101]

- Jets receive: Rodgers, Packers #15 pick

- Packers receive: Jets #13 pick, #43 pick, Elijah Moore, 2024 Conditional pick: 3rd round if Rodgers retires B4 draft, 1st round if Jets make the playoffs.

That’s as fair as any deal I’ve seen yet.

Jets keep a stab at #15 overall and keep everything but their #43 and Moore. They still have 5 draft picks including #15 which is plenty of firepower to get a starter or two.

The Packers get the equivalent of TWO 2nd Round selections now. That equals a #15 overall area selection. We take care of Slot and it pushes WR need down a notch.

The future 3rd is really like a 4th now worst case. If the Jets are successful everyone’s happy because we get a later Day 1 somewhere out near Pluto. That’s so sweet.. heck I’ll even throw in Cobb and cover up to veteran minimum! I’m feeling excited let’s all take a shot or smoke a cigar and talk about Namath and Starr days!

 

[Magooch]

That’s as fair as any deal I’ve seen yet.

Jets keep a stab at #15 overall and keep everything but their #44 and Moore. They still have 5 draft picks including #15 which is plenty of firepower to get a starter or two.

The Packers get the equivalent of TWO 2nd Round selections now. That equals a #15 overall area selection.

The future 3rd is really like a 4th now worst case. If the Jets are successful everyone’s happy because we get a later Day 1 somewhere out near Pluto. That’s so sweet.. heck I’ll even throw in Cobb

Yeah, I would be really pleased with that deal tbh. Obviously if I had my druthers I'd get their 1st AND keep ours. #13 and #15 is a lot of ammo to work with. But if that's not on the table I would say that Moore and #43 is valued about like a late 1st, at least for me anyways.

#13 is worth 336 points (Rich Hill) and #43 is worth 138, and #15 is worth 315.

So #13 and #15 would be worth approx. 651 points, while #13 and #43 is worth 474, for a difference of 177. How much is Moore worth? 177 points is about the equivalent of the #33, 34 pick. Maybe that's not bang-on the exact value but I think it's close enough when you consider the benefit of getting Rodgers' contract off the books. Throw in the potential for a 1st next year and if things go well you may end up getting what's more or less the equivalent of roughly 3 1's for Rodgers and a 1st. I'd be very pleased overall.

 

[OldSchool101]

Yeah, I would be really pleased with that deal tbh. Obviously if I had my druthers I'd get their 1st AND keep ours. #13 and #15 is a lot of ammo to work with. But if that's not on the table I would say that Moore and #43 is valued about like a late 1st, at least for me anyways.

#13 is worth 336 points (Rich Hill) and #43 is worth 138, and #15 is worth 315.

So #13 and #15 would be worth approx. 651 points, while #13 and #43 is worth 474, for a difference of 177. How much is Moore worth? 177 points is about the equivalent of the #33, 34 pick. Maybe that's not bang-on the exact value but I think it's close enough when you consider the benefit of getting Rodgers' contract off the books. Throw in the potential for a 1st next year and if things go well you may end up getting what's more or less the equivalent of roughly 3 1's for Rodgers and a 1st. I'd be very pleased overall.

It’s solved! Thank you @Pokerbrat2000

@Magooch were having a party to celebrate. Go get us a case of expensive champagne right away. Meet us back in the back (it’s a southern comment but you’ll find us eventually!)

I’ll check with Shaggy to see if it’s legal to drink in the forum break room area.
Goodbye #12!!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

That’s as fair as any deal I’ve seen yet.

Although I heard the Jets are offering a 3rd rounder + a number of personally autographed pictures from Jenn Sterger, pictures that were once texted to her by Brett Favre. I wonder if they could build a special adult wing of the Packer Hall of Fame to display those in? They could put them next to Rodger's Covid Toe picture.

 

[OldSchool101]

Although I heard the Jets are offering a 3rd rounder + a number of personally autographed pictures from Jenn Sterger, pictures that were once texted to her by Brett Favre. I wonder if they could build a special adult wing of the Packer Hall of Fame to display those in? They could put them next to Rodger's Covid Toe picture.

Great idea. #12 said he’s got a framed photo of his surgically repaired Collar bone he’d donate as long as we’re on the Subject.

 

[Heyjoe4]

How do you know that I'm not MM

About the same odds as me being AR.......

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

About the same odds as me being AR.......

Aaron? Is that you?

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[Deleted member 6794]

I'm not sure precisely what that would look like but I doubt they signed and structured that contract for Rodgers without considering the possibility of having to pay him in 2023. And my math may be off but IIRC I think the difference in cap hit between trading him and keeping him ends up being "only" around 20m.

Honestly, I have no idea what the Packers' front office thought when structuring Rodgers' contract the way they did. It was truly a stupid way to do it.

The Packers moving on from Rodgers this offseason would result in dead money of $40.3 million counting against their cap either this season or spread out over the next two years. If they keep him for the upcoming season that number will increase by $60 million before he will be off their books at some point down the road.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Aaron? Is that you?

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Please leave me alone here in the dark. I'm trying to think of which Packer FO member to slam today in the press. All in the name of love. Self love, that is, not Jordan.

 

[PikeBadger]

Hmmm, that's an interesting trade scenario. IMO, finding impact players in a draft starts to drop off between picks 10 and 15. The rest, in the first round through first half of second round, are solid players, just a few steps behind the earliest picks.

So the Packers could still grab Branch at #13 and one of the top 4 or 5 TEs at #43 (which is what I'd like to see happen). Elijah Moore would add some experience to a still very young WR group.

The Jets keep a good first round pick and get Rodgers. I mean they are in win NOW mode and that scenario is attractive, or it should be.

What I like best is that it's reasonable. Well, maybe that's not an advantage given that Murphy is probably too involved. This should be Gluten's call, but we know how Murphy likes attention.

That's the way I generally see it too. Very little difference between the caliber of player you're getting between pick 15 and 40 in most years.

 

[PikeBadger]

Hmmm, that's an interesting trade scenario. IMO, finding impact players in a draft starts to drop off between picks 10 and 15. The rest, in the first round through first half of second round, are solid players, just a few steps behind the earliest picks.

So the Packers could still grab Branch at #13 and one of the top 4 or 5 TEs at #43 (which is what I'd like to see happen). Elijah Moore would add some experience to a still very young WR group.

The Jets keep a good first round pick and get Rodgers. I mean they are in win NOW mode and that scenario is attractive, or it should be.

What I like best is that it's reasonable. Well, maybe that's not an advantage given that Murphy is probably too involved. This should be Gluten's call, but we know how Murphy likes attention.

Good grief. Please explain to me how you came up with this assessment

 

[Heyjoe4]

Good grief. Please explain to me how you came up with this assessment

LOL! Easy, I've been following your advice! I guess now that there's no mystery about where Rod wants to play, or that he wants to play at all, we'l spend a month or so on trade options.

 

[PikeBadger]

LOL! Easy, I've been following your advice! I guess now that there's no mystery about where Rod wants to play, or that he wants to play at all, we'l spend a month or so on trade options.

That's quite the non-answer

 

[Heyjoe4]

That's quite the non-answer

Well, the first time you replied to my comment you wrote “That’s the way I generally see it too” and the second time you replied to the same comment you wrote “Good grief. Please explain to me how you came up with this assessment”.

So maybe you can explain it to yourself.

 

[Caya]

I like the premise. Again those simulators are pretty liberal on trades and there’s more value to sheer units of selections than those simulators account for.

While we would never get that many selections in a real scenario. I could see a toned down version happening with a higher pick bringing 2-3 selections plus a swap etc.

That mid-Round 2 area can become very fruitful and it covers a lot of needs.

True. It’s just fun to see how much of a haul that you can get. My best so far??? 41 picks with an overall A+ grade. Just… stupid, unrealistic numbers. Still… fun to do.