2022 Salary Cap Riddle/Thread/Discussion

[tynimiller]

Purpose of this thread is for specific discussions relating to the 2022 Cap situation Green Bay finds themselves in.

Discuss contracts, possible directions we may have to take or could take in order to make things work. Obviously this thread will change and evolve as injuries, extensions, cuts and even performances and statements by players come forth between now and next year.

Many of us enjoy flexing our Cap Space hats if you will in hypothetical situations where Aaron elects to stay....or we let him and Adams walk and try to reload quick for Love. This is the thread for that.

I will attempt to keep this original comment fresh with 2022 Cap Scenario/Figures

Presently as of 11/17/2021

Overthecap has Green Bay listed as having a 2022 liabilities of $249,767,656 which leaves us over by $36,905,400 - which most concerning is that is for 40 players only.
Spotrac

 

[mradtke66]

After seeing how well Gary has played this year, I presume Z is a cap casualty. He has a 12+ cap penalty, but would still net-save us 15.7M. That leaves us 21.2M left to come up with.

Whatever happens with Rodgers will almost certainly fix that 21.2 million. If he's cut or traded pre-6/1, we'd save 19.2M. Post 6/1, it's 26.9. If we extend him, we can play games with his bonus to get his cap number under the (holy crap) 46.1M he's currently schedule to account for.

We are all but certainly NOT going to be big spenders in 2022.

 

[tynimiller]

Possible or Obvious Cost Savings IMO:

Za'Darius Smith - Cut
He made it clear in off season he was ready and willing to make his career end in Green Bay with an extension. Issue is that cost. He has since now seen injury which may very well change his entire future in the NFL - no one knows what kind of player he will be when back. Cutting him would be a massive cost savings - around $15.75M saved despite the high dead cap figure still. He is entering his 30s, back injury and MASSIVE cost make him IMO 100% gone next year as much as that sucks. The only way I see him here is a massive restructure making him have a cheap "prove it" type year in 2022 contract wise with escalating 2023 and a team friendly out for sure before 2024.

Jaire Alexander - Extension
Jaire is another world talent. His position and skillset is 100% a must resign. If we let him play out his contract his hit would be $13.3M essentially - surely Ball could lesson that blow a little bit if we came to a 4 or 5 year deal keeping Jaire in Green Bay in the prime of his career. This would be a savings for 2022...but most likely become VERY costly similar to Bahk contract by the last couple years - however this is a must IMO if we want to not see 2022 be a rebuild but hopefully a reload.

Preston Smith - Extension (one year)
Preston has been having a resurgence of a year. If Rivers is feared to regress, and Zadarius is leaving...Green Bay may not want to try and find a replacement, but hold onto Preston another year for sure. His 2022 hit is presently set to climb to $19.75M - that just isn't going to happen and cutting him saves $12.5M....we could add an additional year to his contract, shift some of that into that additional year and save maybe $5M-$7M.

Rashan Gary - Extension
Less likely given his hit is only $5M essentially, but IF Green Bay sees Gary playing out the next 3-5 years and worth the risk of an injury costing them - contract structure could shave some here with an extension/new contract. I don't see this happening personally BUT is an option.

Aaron Rodgers - Restrcuture/Trade/Extension
One or multiple of those three are going to happen, something is going to change to change his $46+Million cap hit in 2022 to a smaller figure. None of know what or how this occurs.

Randall Cobb - Cut or Extension
I don't see Cobb here unless Aaron is. If cut it saves us $6.85M. A sizeable chunk, but things to remember - he and Amari are the only two WRs that have seen playing time contracted into 2022.


David Bahktiari - Cut/Trade
One thing many haven't talked about is possibly moving on from Bahk in order to make cap woes lesson. His cap hits for the next three years starting in 2022 are $22.76M, $26.26M and $30.27M. Elgton Jenkins has proven capable of being the LT of the future, will need a new contract anyways soon and we could decide turning the pages on the future is easier at OL and LT than other positions elsewhere. The issue here is cutting Bahk in 2022 actually isn't a savings due to current structure - so that would need changed. BUT it would free up $29M in space over 2023 and 2024 respectively. A buddy of mine thinks Bahk (an aging LT) for a surefire WR a team is looking to move on from could be a trade depending on a slew of other decisions might make sense and be feasible. Who knows.


LOT more thoughts but I'm out of time at the moment.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Gute and Ball will have some real magic to work for 2022, cause its going to be a tight squeeze to fit under the cap and still be competitive. One would have to think that they have a decent plan for not just 2022, but 2023. Obviously, such plans are heavily influenced by unknown variables (at this time) and those include player development and injuries.

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[KiDcUdI]

Easy. Currently scheduled to be $41.5M over. Kind of incredible to mismanage the cap that poorly but thats a separate issue.

Trade Rodgers to Broncos for 2022 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 2023 conditional 1st/2nd (condition team record over 2 years): $22M over
Cut Z: $6.5M over
Cut P: $6M under
Cut Cobb: $12M under
Cut/Retires Crosby: $15M under
Cut Lowry: $19M under
Franchise Tag Adams: $40K under
Trade Adams to Raiders for 2022 2nd and 5th: $19M under

Resign Bojo: 2 years $3.5M $18M under
Resign Tonyan: 1 year $4M 14M under
Tender Njiman: ERFA tender
Tender Barnes: ERFA tender
Tender Rivers: ERFA tender
Tender Dafney: ERFA tender

Ton of draft capital to rebuild for the future. We would have to take a hit on being a competitive team for a year where either Love looks good and we come into 2023 with an ascending roster and a ton of cap space or he stinks and we have a high pick where we can get a real QB.

 

[captainWIMM]

The Packers are effectively $46 million over the cap for next season considering they need to fill out the bottom of the roster as well.

David Bahktiari - Cut/Trade
One thing many haven't talked about is possibly moving on from Bahk in order to make cap woes lesson. His cap hits for the next three years starting in 2022 are $22.76M, $26.26M and $30.27M. Elgton Jenkins has proven capable of being the LT of the future, will need a new contract anyways soon and we could decide turning the pages on the future is easier at OL and LT than other positions elsewhere. The issue here is cutting Bahk in 2022 actually isn't a savings due to current structure - so that would need changed. BUT it would free up $29M in space over 2023 and 2024 respectively. A buddy of mine thinks Bahk (an aging LT) for a surefire WR a team is looking to move on from could be a trade depending on a slew of other decisions might make sense and be feasible. Who knows.

There are several different ways to create cap space for next season but moving on from Bakhtiari isn't one of them as it would add an additional cap hit of $3.5 million for next season.

 

[tynimiller]

The Packers are effectively $46 million over the cap for next season considering they need to fill out the bottom of the roster as well.



There are several different ways to create cap space for next season but moving on from Bakhtiari isn't one of them as it would add an additional cap hit of $3.5 million for next season.

Yup, and I acknowledged the Bahk piece would be most likely not done with a restructure first which would only happen in a trade, which I just don't see happening. Although after 2022 I could see this occur.

 

[captainWIMM]

Yup, and I acknowledged the Bahk piece would be most likely not done with a restructure first which would only happen in a trade, which I just don't see happening. Although after 2022 I could see this occur.

The Packers trading Bakhtiari next offseason would result in dead money of $26 million counting against their cap. There's nothing they could do about it.

 

[tynimiller]

The Packers trading Bakhtiari next offseason would result in dead money of $26 million counting against their cap. There's nothing they could do about it.

Do I completely not understand things then? Restructuring or doing an extension and trade couldn't change any of that? I'm just curious, as we both know he is going nowhere next year, him and Jones will be here one more year for certain.

 

[captainWIMM]

Do I completely not understand things then? Restructuring or doing an extension and trade couldn't change any of that? I'm just curious, as we both know he is going nowhere next year, him and Jones will be here one more year for certain.

The Packers could save a maximum of $7.6 miilion of cap space by converting Bakhtiari's roster bonus into a signing bonus but if they move on from him the remaining portion of the prorated signing bonus ($26 million) he has already been paid will count against their cap.

There's no way around it.

 

[tynimiller]

The Packers could save a maximum of $7.6 miilion of cap space by converting Bakhtiari's roster bonus into a signing bonus but if they move on from him the remaining portion of the prorated signing bonus ($26 million) he has already been paid will count against their cap.

There's no way around it.

Gotcha. Appreciate it.

 

[KiDcUdI]

There is no way in hell the Packers move on from Bak after just extending him last year.

 

[El Guapo]

For the money they are paying Bahktiari, I'll suggest that they trade Rodgers and then put Bahk at QB for 2022. He can run the triple option!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

For the money they are paying Bahktiari, I'll suggest that they trade Rodgers and then put Bahk at QB for 2022. He can run the triple option!

So pay Davante and slide him over to Left Tackle?

 

[El Guapo]

While everything in my heart says keep Jaire and Adams, I think that it is one or the other. In the end, we are seeing that we can have a top 5 defense without Jaire but Jordan Love is going to need every bit of Davante Adams in order to succeed.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Jordan Love is going to need every bit of Davante Adams in order to succeed.

I honestly don't think even having Adams on the team is going to be enough for Love. If we lose Rodgers, might as well fully begin the rebuild process and shed Davante as well. Hell, we might not have a choice, he may not want to resign unless Rodgers is the QB. As someone else mentioned, franchise and trade him.

 

[El Guapo]

I honestly don't think even having Adams on the team is going to be enough for Love. If we lose Rodgers, might as well fully begin the rebuild process and shed Davante as well. Hell, we might not have a choice, he may not want to resign unless Rodgers is the QB. As someone else mentioned, franchise and trade him.

Well he certainly didn't have a 100% Adams against the Chiefs. Part of me agrees with you about the rebuild, but the other part says that a young QB needs good receivers around in order to succeed. With Adams he has a chance to succeed. Without Adams it is almost certain failure.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Rodgers, Adams and probably Bahk are the nucleus of the Offense. I think it survives fine if we lost Adams and Bahk. However, if we lose Rodgers, its going to take quite a bit of time for Love to improve or to find the next try at #12's successor. Adams might help, but I can't help think that you can buy and draft a lot of shiny new toys for Love with the money savings and draft picks.

Adams is going to go where the money is of course, but he also might want to go where a proven good QB is too.

 

[sschind]

While everything in my heart says keep Jaire and Adams, I think that it is one or the other. In the end, we are seeing that we can have a top 5 defense without Jaire but Jordan Love is going to need every bit of Davante Adams in order to succeed.

I disagree. If its one or the other I say keep Jaire. I think its easier to use a high round pick on a WR and have him come in and contribute right away. Besides that I think the number of stop gap WRs is better than the number of stopgap CBs

I honestly don't think even having Adams on the team is going to be enough for Love. If we lose Rodgers, might as well fully begin the rebuild process and shed Davante as well. Hell, we might not have a choice, he may not want to resign unless Rodgers is the QB. As someone else mentioned, franchise and trade him.

I don't disagree with this but I think Captain already spelled out the dangers of franchising him. Not that it can't be done but if we franchise him and he doesn't sign we can't do anything with him and if we do and he signs we would need to clear up cap space big time.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I don't disagree with this but I think Captain already spelled out the dangers of franchising him. Not that it can't be done but if we franchise him and he doesn't sign we can't do anything with him and if we do and he signs we would need to clear up cap space big time.

Like I read what Captain writes.

Kidding of course and I must have missed that post. Good points, thanks for bringing them up again.

 

[captainWIMM]

While everything in my heart says keep Jaire and Adams, I think that it is one or the other. In the end, we are seeing that we can have a top 5 defense without Jaire but Jordan Love is going to need every bit of Davante Adams in order to succeed.

The Packers can actually create up to $9.6 million of cap space for next season by extending Alexander.

 

[Krabs]

Let's kick the tires on this thread a bit. The cap is complicated and I don't know the whole scope of it. That's why I just talk about in on a football forum. With that said, feel free to dump all over me for mistakes made.

For 2022 the Packers are $38.7 million over a predicted $208.2 million salary cap. How do we get to where we need to be and keep our guys that are in the peak of their careers? Z. Smith has an inflated contract and we now know we can play without him. Yes, if he is still the Z of old, he makes us better. However, the reality is the cap. If he is cut then that saves us $15.7 million. We take a huge hit of dead money at $12.4 million. Not sure the move there. Might be prime for a restructure, but he was mad about his contract in the offseason. Seems more of a cut to me.

Simply by the money, P. Smith looks prime for a cut as well. He would save us $12.5 million, but also is a huge hit on dead money. He also is very reliable and has played well. Hopefully, he would be up for a restructure.

Amos I think we extend, which would free more money up in the short term. Also would depend on what the long term of the contract would look like.

Cobb will have to take a huge pay cut or be cut himself. He's shown he still can play, but is simply not worth $7.9 million next season. I think he is a restructure.

Crosby, statistically the worst kicker in the league. He has to restructure or he is gone. We can save $2.4 million by cutting him.

Turner is another prime candidate for a restructure. A cut would save us $3.2 million, but I think he could be had for less through negotiations.

Lowry had played better this year. He already restructured this offseason, but we could still save almost $4 million by cutting him.

All those moves equate to a lot of dead money, but would also allow for some re-signings like Adams and Alexander. Alexander could wait, but extending him now would also create more space.

I'm not touching Rodgers contract. I think he stays next year.

 

[captainWIMM]

Let's kick the tires on this thread a bit. The cap is complicated and I don't know the whole scope of it. That's why I just talk about in on a football forum. With that said, feel free to dump all over me for mistakes made.

For 2022 the Packers are $38.7 million over a predicted $208.2 million salary cap. How do we get to where we need to be and keep our guys that are in the peak of their careers? Z. Smith has an inflated contract and we now know we can play without him. Yes, if he is still the Z of old, he makes us better. However, the reality is the cap. If he is cut then that saves us $15.7 million. We take a huge hit of dead money at $12.4 million. Not sure the move there. Might be prime for a restructure, but he was mad about his contract in the offseason. Seems more of a cut to me.

Simply by the money, P. Smith looks prime for a cut as well. He would save us $12.5 million, but also is a huge hit on dead money. He also is very reliable and has played well. Hopefully, he would be up for a restructure.

Amos I think we extend, which would free more money up in the short term. Also would depend on what the long term of the contract would look like.

Cobb will have to take a huge pay cut or be cut himself. He's shown he still can play, but is simply not worth $7.9 million next season. I think he is a restructure.

Crosby, statistically the worst kicker in the league. He has to restructure or he is gone. We can save $2.4 million by cutting him.

Turner is another prime candidate for a restructure. A cut would save us $3.2 million, but I think he could be had for less through negotiations.

Lowry had played better this year. He already restructured this offseason, but we could still save almost $4 million by cutting him.

All those moves equate to a lot of dead money, but would also allow for some re-signings like Adams and Alexander. Alexander could wait, but extending him now would also create more space.

I'm not touching Rodgers contract. I think he stays next year.

One thing you need to account for is that the Packers currently have a total of $246.9 million in cap hits account for for only 42 players, which leaves them effectively at least $46.6 million over the cap for next season.

If the team decides to keep Rodgers around they need to restructure his deal, a move that could create up to $20 million of cap space.

 

[tynimiller]

Here's a trade option that even just a few months ago I'd have written off as lunacy...however let's flesh this thing out some.

Stokes has clearly shown more promise than even some of the biggest fans here of him pre-draft (I got this one right)...and Rasul is not overachieving IMO at this point and has proven in this system he can flourish.

Jaire Alexander....traded as part of the 2022 Cap Problem Solving????

Now this is not something I want to see happen...however when a buddy brought up the fact that this move alone could free up $13.29M in cap space for 2022, bring back SOLID draft pick(s) in return for hopefully covering depth and gaps created by other cuts it is not crazy to think about.

Few fiscal facts. Jaire's contract next year explodes up to $13,294,000. Is he worth that, YES...however we cannot afford to have that happen so like many of us have been saying we need to get an extension deal done to keep him in Green Bay through his prime (he is 24 folks) and lesson the cap hit in 2022 especially. OR.....has Green Bay seen enough of Rasul and Stokes together this year to take the much CHEAPER route and sign Rasul to a two to four year deal (he is 26) and trade the All Pro/PREMEIRE top 3 talent that Jaire is in a passing dominated league now? There would be no shortage of teams offering awesome draft equity and a chance to sign such a talent to a restructured extension upon completing the trade.

Green Bay would instantly save nearly $13.3 Million dollars (some of that would go to Rasul contract sure) + we would IMO get a 1st rounder back most likely that could help offset the loss of cuts that no doubt will have to occur (one or both Smiths, Turner, Lowry, Cobb, Crosby...)

It is crazy to think about I get it....BUT fiscally and cap wise it holds merit...how much merit will depend on the person thinking about it. I have no doubt though as Rasul and Stokes continue to show this year that they can play, I guarantee you this is already in the back of Gute's mind somewhere - because honestly if you're a good GM (and he is) all valid options must be considered.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Not that I would want to get rid of Jaire, but if you can trade him and get great value in the deal, it sure is better than not being able to resign him after next season.

I don't think it would sit well with Rodgers, but if the Packers find themselves not being able to resign Davante, a similar principle might apply. Tag him and trade him. Problem is, if you tag him, I think you have to clear the cap space first?