2023 Salary cap riddle

[Pokerbrat2000]

That time of year when the front office has to start crunching numbers, figure out a way to have a competitive roster and eventually get under the cap.

This is a pretty decent article to get us started on the discussion.

5 simple ways the Packers can start climbing out of another salary cap hole

As of mid-January, the Green Bay Packers sit at roughly $20 million over the effective 2023 salary cap, per Over the Cap. The site is working with an estimated salary cap across the NFL at $225 million. The Packers are in a familiar spot. Each of the…

packerswire.usatoday.com

 

[tynimiller]

That time of year when the front office has to start crunching numbers, figure out a way to have a competitive roster and eventually get under the cap.

This is a pretty decent article to get us started on the discussion.

5 simple ways the Packers can start climbing out of another salary cap hole

As of mid-January, the Green Bay Packers sit at roughly $20 million over the effective 2023 salary cap, per Over the Cap. The site is working with an estimated salary cap across the NFL at $225 million. The Packers are in a familiar spot. Each of the…

packerswire.usatoday.com

Leads me to the belief IF they're right on Savage...trade him for a Day 3 pick and take it. I don't want him paid that much here and losing safety role again.

 

[AKCheese]

Meh they’ll figure it out

 

[Poppa San]

Leads me to the belief IF they're right on Savage...trade him for a Day 3 pick and take it. I don't want him paid that much here and losing safety role again.

I think they like Savage. I expect a new long term (3-5yr) deal to drop his cap hit.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Leads me to the belief IF they're right on Savage...trade him for a Day 3 pick and take it. I don't want him paid that much here and losing safety role again.

Tough call, because his $7.9M salary is guranteed and would another team want to take that on and give up a Day 3 pick?

This is one where you have to hope the coaches and Gute do a better job then the Packers did keeping Ha Ha and Darious around too long.

Was Savage's play his first 2-3 years indicative of what we will see in his 5th and last year was just an off year? Or do we see the same player we saw this past season?

I think they like Savage. I expect a new long term (3-5yr) deal to drop his cap hit.

They obviously liked him almost 2 years ago, when they picked up his 5th year option. His play has definitely dropped off since. I guess we will find out just how much they like him in the coming months. With Amos potentially gone in Free agency, I don't really see them being able to show Savage the door. I hope they can work out a fair deal with Amos and play the "wait and see" game with Savage. Only thing is, if they do want him long term, it would be advantageous to do it now. First, his guaranteed 5th year salary of $7.9M is fully guaranteed and that is the cap hit. Second, with his play being down, his price might not be very high.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I think they like Savage. I expect a new long term (3-5yr) deal to drop his cap hit.

The Packers would most likely have to guarantee even more money to Savage to have him sign an extension. I don't think his play this season justifies doing that.

 

[tynimiller]

The Packers would most likely have to guarantee even more money to Savage to have him sign an extension. I don't think his play this season justifies doing that.

Yeah I see this as savages last year most likely, because even if he plays to deserve his fully guaranteed fifth year option he’ll play into a contract elsewhere.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Yeah I see this as savages last year most likely, because even if he plays to deserve his fully guaranteed fifth year option he’ll play into a contract elsewhere.

Don't get me wrong, the Packers could sign Savage to an extension to reduce his cap hit for next season. But as with Rodgers they better be sure to make the right decision as they already got it wrong once.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I just wanted to mention one thing as I have heard that falsely reported on several occasions over the past few weeks.

If the Packers move on from Rodgers this offseason and want to spread out the dead money resulting from it over the next two years they don't save the roughly $16 million of cap space until June 2.

That means either Rodgers retiring or the Packers trading him won't help in getting under the cap at the start of the new league year.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Actually writing the previous post made me think about what's going to happen with Rodgers cap hit if the Packers hold on to him while not exercising the option bonus before the new league year starts.

It has been made public that the Packers have until week 1 to exercise the bonus, meaning the prorated cap hit for it might not count against the team's cap until it's actually exercised. That would result in an additional $14.575 million of cap space for the team entering the new league year. I'm not sure that's the way it will be handled by the league though.

 

[Krabs]

With the restructuring of Jones's contract, that moved the Packers to only $4.6 million. Obviously they need to restructure more contracts, but this was a big domino to fall. Getting under $4.6 million is not that hard. Now, they need to create a lot more space to sign their rookie draft picks and add any free agents. Good start though.

 

[ARPackFan]

The next most likely restructure is Jaire Alexander's $12M roster bonus in 2023 that could be converted to a signing bonus. It would save around $9M in 2023.

 

[Heyjoe4]

That time of year when the front office has to start crunching numbers, figure out a way to have a competitive roster and eventually get under the cap.

This is a pretty decent article to get us started on the discussion.

5 simple ways the Packers can start climbing out of another salary cap hole

As of mid-January, the Green Bay Packers sit at roughly $20 million over the effective 2023 salary cap, per Over the Cap. The site is working with an estimated salary cap across the NFL at $225 million. The Packers are in a familiar spot. Each of the…

packerswire.usatoday.com

Great article Poker, thanks. The Jones contract restructuring already shaved $12 mil off the 2023 cap. And I think he took a $5 mil pay cut. Maybe someone can double check that. Sure would be nice if Rodgers would agree to a restructure and a pay cut. That may be moot as it sure seems he will be traded. The point is, he doesn't deserve to be paid as a top 5 QB in the NFL anymore, much less the #1 QB.

The only question I have, doesn't all this restructuring just push cap out to the future (voidable years, for example)? The team has enough talent to compete, so there's no point in a complete tear down at this point. But I'm guessing somewhere in the next 2 to 4 years, the Packers are gonna have to shed a lot of talent. Maybe not, just a hunch.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The only question I have, doesn't all this restructuring just push cap out to the future (voidable years, for example)? The team has enough talent to compete, so there's no point in a complete tear down at this point. But I'm guessing somewhere in the next 2 to 4 years, the Packers are gonna have to shed a lot of talent. Maybe not, just a hunch.

You are 100% correct. As the Packers push more contracts out, to delay payment, you will see each year that the "dead cap hits", include players that are no longer even on the team. These are players that probably had their contract pushed out into voidable years or just players that didn't live up to their contracts. This year, that number is at $16,396,543 or 7% of the total cap and is attached to the contracts of the following soon to be free agents.

S Adrian Amos: $7,950,000
DL Dean Lowry: $3,007,875
DL Jarran Reed: $1,492,000
WR Randall Cobb: $1,391,668
TE Marcedes Lewis: $1,050,000
K Mason Crosby: $1,005,000
TE Robert Tonyan: $500,000

 

[Pkrjones]

Looking at '24 right now, there are only 35 players under contract & the team available cap is +$35mil. This doesn't account for Gary on a new deal (or gone) and Love on a 5th year ($20mil) or gone. Also doesn't account for the other 16 players needed to even fill out a 53 man roster.

While I love having Jones for the '23 season Gute just keeps adding to future year's cap problems. No "band aid rip", just a slow financial suffocation.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Looking at '24 right now, there are only 35 players under contract & the team available cap is +$35mil. This doesn't account for Gary on a new deal (or gone) and Love on a 5th year ($20mil) or gone. Also doesn't account for the other 16 players needed to even fill out a 53 man roster.

While I love having Jones for the '23 season Gute just keeps adding to future year's cap problems. No "band aid rip", just a slow financial suffocation.

Agree and at some point, you have to jump off that ship for a few years and get cap healthy again. If Rodgers is traded, this is the season to start doing just that and maybe by 2025, the Packers can start spending money on free agents again. Right now it seems that all they are doing is buying expensive patches, for a roster that is slowly sinking into the depths.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Agree and at some point, you have to jump off that ship for a few years and get cap healthy again. If Rodgers is traded, this is the season to start doing just that and maybe by 2025, the Packers can start spending money on free agents again. Right now it seems that all they are doing is buying expensive patches, for a roster that is slowly sinking into the depths.

Good stuff. Another reason to hope Rodgers gets traded, and to hope that Love is the man. If I understand this correctly, Love would play next year on the 4th year of his contract, and then be owed $20 mil for the option year. That could be a bargain if he produces at QB.

That might also give the Packers room to burn off dead cap and pay guys we'd want to keep, like Gary. We've been spoiled in Packerland. I'm not a pessimist, but realistically, the next few years are gonna be .500 ball, plus or minus 2 games. Either way, there don't seem to be any deep playoff runs in the Packers' near future.

I'd be happy to be wrong about this.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If I understand this correctly, Love would play next year on the 4th year of his contract, and then be owed $20 mil for the option year. That could be a bargain if he produces at QB.

Sort of. The Packers have to decide by May 1st of this year if they want to exercise Love's 5th year, which is the 2024 season. If the decision was left up to us fans, we would all probably say "no way", since we have no fricking clue if the guy is any good or not. If Rodgers stays, I don't see the Packers exercising that 5th year option and even if Rodgers leaves, its a crap shoot and will be done only if Gute and Co. are very confident that Love is actually the real deal. One of the big reasons I wished the 2022 Season was over way before that Lions game, the Packers would have taken a very extensive look at Love and that 5th year option, as well as Rodgers future, may have been much easier to decide upon.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Sort of. The Packers have to decide by May 1st of this year if they want to exercise Love's 5th year, which is the 2024 season. If the decision was left up to us fans, we would all probably say "no way", since we have no fricking clue if the guy is any good or not. If Rodgers stays, I don't see the Packers exercising that 5th year option and even if Rodgers leaves, its a crap shoot and will be done only if Gute and Co. are very confident that Love is actually the real deal. One of the big reasons I wished the 2022 Season was over way before that Lions game, the Packers would have taken a very extensive look at Love and that 5th year option, as well as Rodgers future, may have been much easier to decide upon.

Thanks Poker. So it's good news and bad news I guess. I've read opinions saying that Gluten and MLF are sure Love is their guy. But how can they know that until he gets real game experience? So I tend to disregard those opinions, and feel we'll know if Love can handle the job when he handles the job. That's redundant. The Packers can gamble that a guy who has been in the system for three years is more likely coproduce than an unknown draft pick. Rodgers did it.

Personally, I just don't feel good enough about Love to give him $20 million on an educated hunch. I know many won't agree, but depending on the draft capital they have, and what could be acquired in a Rodgers trade, can they trade into the top 5 and get Young, Stroud, or Levis?

There are no good answers. Well, none I can think.

 

[OldSchool101]

Looking at '24 right now, there are only 35 players under contract & the team available cap is +$35mil. This doesn't account for Gary on a new deal (or gone) and Love on a 5th year ($20mil) or gone. Also doesn't account for the other 16 players needed to even fill out a 53 man roster.

While I love having Jones for the '23 season Gute just keeps adding to future year's cap problems. No "band aid rip", just a slow financial suffocation.

I 100% agree about not wanting to push debt. That said The league cap increase in 2023 ($16.6M) completely washed all our $16.4m 2023 void money, plus a smidge. Each corresponding season elevates the league cap increase and thus, if we continue being careful, similarly washes those void monies.
I’m convinced it’s not a coincidence these numbers are 200K apart.

However next season, Rodgers could potentially be all or mostly off the books. The offset to our estimated $50.3 average per million is estimated half of that.
That’s some added firepower to push towards maintaining our roster. If my math is correct, we will have a 2024 increase near $17.98M to cover void money next season (~$242.78m).

Side note: If Jordan doesn’t work out and we draft a QB in the top 5 etc.. We’re going to straighten our Cap out very quickly.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Thanks Poker. So it's good news and bad news I guess. I've read opinions saying that Gluten and MLF are sure Love is their guy. But how can they know that until he gets real game experience?

I think both MLF and Gute know a lot more about Love then you and I know. I do remember reporters saying that he looked night and day at camps and practices before the 2022 season. That said, you are right, nobody will really know how he handles a full NFL game/season, until he is actually is doing it. We are always going to hear "we have all the confidence in the world in Love" from the Packers and if Rodgers is done, I guess we will find out soon enough if it is BS or fact.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think both MLF and Gute know a lot more about Love then you and I know. I do remember reporters saying that he looked night and day at camps and practices before the 2022 season. That said, you are right, nobody will really know how he handles a full NFL game/season, until he is actually is doing it. We are always going to hear "we have all the confidence in the world in Love" from the Packers and if Rodgers is done, I guess we will find out soon enough if it is BS or fact.

Yeah there are at least encouraging signs about Love as you point out. I would not want to have to pull the trigger on that fifth year option. Then again, $20 mil for a starting QB is "cheap".

 

[tynimiller]

twenty million for a starter that isn’t on rookie deal is pretty much unheard of in todays NFL

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yeah there are at least encouraging signs about Love as you point out. I would not want to have to pull the trigger on that fifth year option. Then again, $20 mil for a starting QB is "cheap".

twenty million for a starter that isn’t on rookie deal is pretty much unheard of in todays NFL

A quality starter yes. However, until Love proves he is just that, it would be a ton of guaranteed money to tie up in a non-quality starter. Or if Rodgers is still a Packer in 2024, a backup QB, without much NFL experience.

 

[Heyjoe4]

A quality starter yes. However, until Love proves he is just that, it would be a ton of guaranteed money to tie up in a non-quality starter. Or if Rodgers is still a Packer in 2024, a backup QB, without much NFL experience.

Correct. At this point, paying Love for the fifth year is a roll of the dice. Well, maybe an educated guess, but still a guess. Another way to look at it is to pay him and see if he can do the job. His three years experience put him ahead of anyone else - well unless the Packers try to get into the top 5 for a QB. Unlikely.