Pregame thread: It's round one of B3@rz week ...

[Poppa San]

... so let's get this started.

From the top

This could be anything from first 3/4 of week one to the calamity that was week 3. The bigger question will probably be which of the starters do we lose for the season this time.

 

[OldSchool101]

First of all when I gauge a teams strength I barely factor Week 1. I would factor our previous meeting over a Week 1 game unless dramatic changes were made, which they were not. I’m convinced that Caleb has largely become a product of his positive environment and I say this after watching all 3 Chicago QB’s.

I do have a suspicion the Packers will continue to improve with each passing week, but not dramatically enough to make up for the difference. Playing Away at Chicago I’d give Chicago an
-7 point favorite. At Green Bay I’d put us as 4 point underdogs. I’m not wholly convinced we can do enough to stop the Running game.

Now one might have avoid argument that we’re bigger underdogs than that. However if Zeitler suits up he’s likely a n immediate upgrade at RG. I thought Belton largely played ok at RT. I also have a great deal of respect for Redman, he’s a good blocker and he’s just agile enough to burn an overzealous Defense when he’s not covered up. Tucker is starting to look like his old self and our OL is starting to normalize, which occasionally opens up more holes to gash. I think GB will crack 100 yards rushing, which will take some pressure off Jordan Love.

For GB to win they’ll need to heavily minimize self made mistakes, which has been our Achilles Heel. We’ll need to win the turnover battle by at least +1 and limit flags.

 

[milani]

... so let's get this started.

From the top

This could be anything from first 3/4 of week one to the calamity that was week 3. The bigger question will probably be which of the starters do we lose for the season this time.

It is the reason that if you can make the Packers 53 or PS employment opportunity is always there. So take advantage of it.

 

[Zartan]

I'm getting tired of all these season ending injuries.

 

[milani]

I'm getting tired of all these season ending injuries.

The bigger question is whether we would get tired of the season ending.

 

[AGreen2AJones]

Micah is eligible to return is he not?

Last victory at home was at least the Bears so there's that...but outside of Micah coming from the heavens based off play, it will be truly a shocker if MLF has this team beat Chciago

 

[milani]

Micah is eligible to return is he not?

Last victory at home was at least the Bears so there's that...but outside of Micah coming from the heavens based off play, it will be truly a shocker if MLF has this team beat Chciago

Micah may be back in WK 7 or 8. And on a play count.

 

[tynimiller]

The bigger question is whether we would get tired of the season ending.

Shoot...many declared the season done already. Fools...

 

[Half Empty]

Shoot...many declared the season done already. Fools...

Isn't it?

 

[tynimiller]

On paper I see slight edge to Bears and expect line to settle around 2.5 point favorite their way.

BUT...I'll be the lunatic that states I feel pretty good about this one honestly BUT it depends on three factors. I will predict that if we see these three things happen and we don't win by 10 I'll eat crow:

- We end up with same or fewer penalties than Bears.
- We have no more than one drop
- Our running backs actually take what is blocked (this last game there was a LOT more yards there but failed to get)
- Love isn't injured

I truly think this defense is good enough, even with Cooper down it's about to be a serious game to flex the best safety trio in the game and Nixon loves big games too. Our offense watchign the All22 is right there on the cusp and I think it clicks.

I'll go as far to say 38-27


(little tongue in cheek but I sense an explosion game is coming...and guess hoping it is this week).

 

[Magooch]

On the plus side the Bears have the #29 rush defense (Y/A) and #28 pass defense (NY/A), along with #23 scoring defense. (#27 in total rush yards and #22 in total pass yards allowed)
And they also have a pretty mediocre pass rush overall, so hopefully another opportunity for our OL to put some good reps together

And defensively, we have the #12 rush defense (Y/A) and #9 pass defense (NY/A), along with #11 scoring defense. (#11 in total rush yards and #18 in total pass yards allowed)
(You might also find it interesting to note that Lukas Van Ness currently is 2nd in the league in EDGE pass rush win rate and Barryn Sorrell is 9th in EDGE run stop win rate)

On the other side of the ball, the Bears are #3 in rushing (Y/A) and #10 in passing (NY/A), along with #8 in scoring and #6 in total yards.
Comparatively we are #25 in rushing (Y/A), #4 in passing (NY/A), and #16 in scoring and #15 in total yards

I worry however that we seem to struggle to sustain drives. It's often rather feast-or-famine for us.

That said, I don't think the Bears are as good as they are perceived to be by many, and I don't know that we are truly as BAD as we had looked in the early goings, particularly the Jets+Falcons games...But at the same time we arguably just passed thru the "easy" portion of our schedule

I hope to be wrong but I suspect Ben Johnson will have Matt's number once again

 

[milani]

On paper I see slight edge to Bears and expect line to settle around 2.5 point favorite their way.

BUT...I'll be the lunatic that states I feel pretty good about this one honestly BUT it depends on three factors. I will predict that if we see these three things happen and we don't win by 10 I'll eat crow:

- We end up with same or fewer penalties than Bears.
- We have no more than one drop
- Our running backs actually take what is blocked (this last game there was a LOT more yards there but failed to get)
- Love isn't injured

I truly think this defense is good enough, even with Cooper down it's about to be a serious game to flex the best safety trio in the game and Nixon loves big games too. Our offense watchign the All22 is right there on the cusp and I think it clicks.

I'll go as far to say 38-27


(little tongue in cheek but I sense an explosion game is coming...and guess hoping it is this week).

The Bears offensive line is one of the league's best. Their running game can compensate for a 2nd or 3rd string QB. They do not have a Bijon Robinson or a Henry running the rock but they are very good. You can only hope we get them behind the sticks.Their D is good enough to get the job done. The Bears lost at Lambeau last year and want to amend for that.

 

[David Ciembronowicz]

Micah may be back in WK 7 or 8. And on a play count.

Est Nov time-frame from what ESPN and LaFleur/others have intimated.

 

[Heyjoe4]

... so let's get this started.

From the top

This could be anything from first 3/4 of week one to the calamity that was week 3. The bigger question will probably be which of the starters do we lose for the season this time.

Your comment reminds me that the Pack started the season with three solid quarters against a very good D.

A switch got flicked in W4 and no one has flipped the switch back.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The Bears offensive line is one of the league's best. Their running game can compensate for a 2nd or 3rd string QB. They do not have a Bijon Robinson or a Henry running the rock but they are very good. You can only hope we get them behind the sticks.Their D is good enough to get the job done. The Bears lost at Lambeau last year and want to amend for that.

Thanks m. It’s very hard to visualize a Packer W this Sunday. Stranger things have happened. A solid performance by all three units, and a W, would really help this team, before the season is lost.

FWIW, I don’t remember the last time I felt this pessimistic about the Pack after only four weeks. This is actually worse than the teams from the 70s and 80s because we knew those were bad teams.

This team had legitimate playoff hopes coming in. Not anymore. Really a bummer.

 

[tynimiller]

Thanks m. It’s very hard to visualize a Packer W this Sunday. Stranger things have happened. A solid performance by all three units, and a W, would really help this team, before the season is lost.

FWIW, I don’t remember the last time I felt this pessimistic about the Pack after only four weeks. This is actually worse than the teams from the 70s and 80s because we knew those were bad teams.

This team had legitimate playoff hopes coming in. Not anymore. Really a bummer.

Do you think Rams fans should write off playoffs? Patriots?

How about the Steelers or Bengals?

Broncos? Eagles?


Falcons??


Just some of the 2-2 teams...

 

[Magooch]

Do you think Rams fans should write off playoffs? Patriots?

How about the Steelers or Bengals?

Broncos? Eagles?


Falcons??


Just some of the 2-2 teams...

Statistically speaking, about 3 of them should....at 2-2 you have roughly a 40% chance historically of making the playoffs.

Which three, of course, that's the big question

What's interesting is that in this position - a loss in your 5th game hurts you way more than a win helps you.

Win and move to 3-2 and your odds get a modest boost, about 50% to make playoffs

But lose and drop to 2-3, and your odds are nearly halved, with only a ~25% chance to make it

 

[DABIGZ]

Statistically speaking, about 3 of them should....at 2-2 you have roughly a 40% chance historically of making the playoffs.

Which three, of course, that's the big question

What's interesting is that in this position - a loss in your 5th game hurts you way more than a win helps you.

Win and move to 3-2 and your odds get a modest boost, about 50% to make playoffs

But lose and drop to 2-3, and your odds are nearly halved, with only a ~25% chance to make it

Right, so this is a HUGE game for us. But at the same time if the guys get too amped up, they might get into their own heads thinking "gotta make a play, gotta make a play"

So, get fired up, but for God's sakes keep it under control (no unsportsmanlike conduct!!!). And Do. Your. Job.

 

[Half Empty]

FWIW, I don’t remember the last time I felt this pessimistic about the Pack after only four weeks. This is actually worse than the teams from the 70s and 80s because we knew those were bad teams.

Having watched since pre-Lombardi, this is a perfect summary. Whenever people describe that era as hell, your response is how I counter. Expectations were maybe sneaking into the playoffs, trying to find 'that guy', but mostly acting as spoiler. So, no heartbreaks.

 

[Pugger]

It will be interesting to see if any more of the OL we signed recently will play this Sunday.

 

[milani]

Thanks m. It’s very hard to visualize a Packer W this Sunday. Stranger things have happened. A solid performance by all three units, and a W, would really help this team, before the season is lost.

FWIW, I don’t remember the last time I felt this pessimistic about the Pack after only four weeks. This is actually worse than the teams from the 70s and 80s because we knew those were bad teams.

This team had legitimate playoff hopes coming in. Not anymore. Really a bummer.

For us to win games we need the opponents to actually beat themselves. And that is possible sometimes. Teams know we are not the powerhouse we once were so they may not bring their A game.

 

[OldSchool101]

Your comment reminds me that the Pack started the season with three solid quarters against a very good D.

A switch got flicked in W4 and no one has flipped the switch back.

It’s like we blew a circuit! Ever since it’s like we’ve been eating by flashlight and cooking with charcoal!

 

[milani]

It’s like we blew a circuit! Ever since it’s like we’ve been eating by flashlight and cooking with charcoal!

I do not want to say we dominated for 3 quarters. We were certainly ahead. We forced an immediate INT from a QB who was making his first start in a Viking uniform with a different offense before getting hurt 11 plays in. And when the backup came in their offense was trying to adjust. We began helping them with penalties. Our kicker came through but we could not turn 3s into enough 6s. We could have eked this one out but between our penalties, our coach, and our running game everything went south.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Having watched since pre-Lombardi, this is a perfect summary. Whenever people describe that era as hell, your response is how I counter. Expectations were maybe sneaking into the playoffs, trying to find 'that guy', but mostly acting as spoiler. So, no heartbreaks.

The 70s and 80s were two, long decades for Packer fans.

They just don't have it this year. I do hope I'm wrong about that. With a well-below-average OL, the running and passing games are mostly shut down. The D just lost Cooper.

Didn't see this coming. I didn't expect a SB team. I did expect a playoff team.

 

[Heyjoe4]

It will be interesting to see if any more of the OL we signed recently will play this Sunday.

I think Zeitler will play. Becton, I think, is on the PS but could be elevated. Adding these guys helped stop the bleeding, even though only Tomlinson (sp?) played. Even so, winning 17-14 against the now 0-4 Bucs is nothing to get excited about.

That said, the OL played much better against the Bucs. I don't think Love was sacked once and only got two pressures. It was a good idea by MLF/Gluten to give Belton reps at RT during the PS.