Official game 11 Thanksgiving Day in Detroit pregame thread

[milani]

Congrats! You are the only one who saw the crystal ball.

Actually, Tyler called it also.

 

[BrokenArrow]

So, let's set some parameters here. Obviously, it doesn't seem anyone thinks we will win Thursday. I personally put those odds about 35% myself. But again, success in this season is not measured in wins, but rather by progress. So to me, success this week will look something like this:

No missed FGs.
4+ ypc from our rushing game
No interceptions resulting from "bad" throws.
No dropped passes.
Winning turnover battle.
Love passer rating 85+.
Points in the first quarter.
Touchdown in the first half.
Scoring at least 24.
Lions score no more than 24.
Goff sacked at least 3 times.
Love sacked not more than 3 times.
No kickoff returns past the 30 for Lions.
No punt returns more than 8 yards for Lions.
No special teams penalties on returns.
Total team penalties under 8 for the game.
Hold Lions to no more than 3 "explosive plays".
At least 3 "explosive plays" for us.

That's a start. And some of those will be easier to meet than others, as it should be. But if we can check off at least half of those Thursday, I'll consider the game a success. Anyone have any to add?

No missed FGs. -- fail (I'm counting the XP try)
4+ ypc from our rushing game -- Check
No interceptions resulting from "bad" throws. -- Check
No dropped passes. -- fail
Winning turnover battle. -- Check
Love passer rating 85+. -- Check
Points in the first quarter. -- Check
Touchdown in the first half. -- Check
Scoring at least 24. -- Check
Lions score no more than 24. -- Check
Goff sacked at least 3 times. -- Check
Love sacked not more than 3 times. -- Check
No kickoff returns past the 30 for Lions. -- Check
No punt returns more than 8 yards for Lions. -- Check
No special teams penalties on returns. -- Check
Total team penalties under 8 for the game. -- Check
Hold Lions to no more than 3 "explosive plays". -- Fail
At least 3 "explosive plays" for us. -- Check

I'd say 15/18 is a pretty successful day.

 

[Schultz]

Congrats! Well, even if the regular turnovers were not enough the turnovers on DOWNS including the fake punt were huge and frankly hard to fathom. You and Amish called this one.

I got the feeling Campbell was more surprised by the GB start more than anyone. His 4th down decisions were the type that the team that is a touchdown + underdog makes. I actually made him a stud for us on that thread.

 

[milani]

I got the feeling Campbell was more surprised by the GB start more than anyone. His 4th down decisions were the type that the team that is a touchdown + underdog makes. I actually made him a stud for us on that thread.

In other words he did not think we were any good. And we have not been very good.

 

[Schultz]

I took it the opposite. He went for it on 4th down a couple of times and tried a fake punt because he thought GB was outplaying the Lions. IMO.

 

[rmontro]

Congrats to Amish and Ty for calling the win. I have to admit I didn't think we had any real chance to win, as banged up as we were. Nice to ruin Detroit's Thanksgiving for a change.

 

[OldSchool101]

The 1 big play that was blatantly missed by the officials was our 3rd n 5 play with 6:00 left non the 2nd Qtr. They claimed Watson and that Detroit DB got feet tangled as “both players were playing the ball”. The Detroit player never looked back at any juncture.
That gets called better than 75% of the time and Matt had every right to make a big deal.
Should’ve clearly been 1st n Goal from inside the 4 yard line

We settled for 3pts. But we would’ve had 3 tries to get 4 yards

 

[milani]

The 1 big play that was blatantly missed by the officials was our 3rd n 5 play with 6:00 left non the 2nd Qtr. They claimed Watson and that Detroit DB got feet tangled as “both players were playing the ball”. The Detroit player never looked back at any juncture.
That gets called better than 75% of the time and Matt had every right to make a big deal.
Should’ve clearly been 1st n Goal from inside the 4 yard line

We settled for 3pts. But we would’ve had 3 tries to get 4 yards

This is correct. If the players are stride for stride and they both trip to side it gets disregarded. But Watson clearly was ahead and when the tangle happens from the rear it means the trailer was running into his path. They were not crossing each other.

 

[BrokenArrow]

I took it the opposite. He went for it on 4th down a couple of times and tried a fake punt because he thought GB was outplaying the Lions. IMO.

Frankly, I think he tried that fake punt simply because he's an idiot.

 

[gopkrs]

Frankly, I think he tried that fake punt simply because he's an idiot.

I have to admit I was laughing out loud after that play. Which I would not have done if it had worked. But it didn't even have a chance.

 

[BrokenArrow]

I have to admit I was laughing out loud after that play. Which I would not have done if it had worked. But it didn't even have a chance.

Campbell has been the guy to put the Lions on the map (for the moment, anyway) but with the way he over-uses his gadget plays and seemingly refuses to kick field goals, he'll never take them anywhere in the playoffs.

 

[gopkrs]

Campbell has been the guy to put the Lions on the map (for the moment, anyway) but with the way he over-uses his gadget plays and seemingly refuses to kick field goals, he'll never take them anywhere in the playoffs.

I agree that teams in general and especially him take this analytic thing too far. I don't think the analytics take into consideration who you are playing or the type of game it is.

 

[weeds]

Frankly, I think he tried that fake punt simply because he's an idiot.

Didn't he get us last season with one of those?

 

[Pugger]

In other words he did not think we were any good. And we have not been very good.

I hinted on another message board that Detroit might have gone into this game thinking this was gonna be an easy win for them. I was rebuked for that post but IMO they sure behaved like that early and after we hit them in the mouth they never recovered.

 

[Poppa San]

on another message board

Sneaking around on us hmmm?

 

[longtimefan]

Campbell has been the guy to put the Lions on the map (for the moment, anyway) but with the way he over-uses his gadget plays and seemingly refuses to kick field goals, he'll never take them anywhere in the playoffs.

He is doing something right.

 

[BrokenArrow]

Didn't he get us last season with one of those?

Just because you occasionally get away with dumb decisions doesn't make them smart.

 

[BrokenArrow]

He is doing something right.

He's overachieving with the tactics he uses. Playoff teams will eat that up.

 

[longtimefan]

He's overachieving with the tactics he uses. Playoff teams will eat that up.

I bet packers wish they could say that

 

[Pugger]

I have to admit I was laughing out loud after that play. Which I would not have done if it had worked. But it didn't even have a chance.

Me too. I said out loud to hubby that was one stupid decision. You don't pull that stunt against anybody from that position on the field no matter what. If it doesn't work you are giving your opponent at FG at worst.

Sneaking around on us hmmm?

I post on 2 other boards. Been doing it for eons.

 

[JK64]

Not really sure? It maybe a collective decision? But they have been changed during MM and nothing changed

It must be an organizational policy.

 

[JK64]

The 1 big play that was blatantly missed by the officials was our 3rd n 5 play with 6:00 left non the 2nd Qtr. They claimed Watson and that Detroit DB got feet tangled as “both players were playing the ball”. The Detroit player never looked back at any juncture.
That gets called better than 75% of the time and Matt had every right to make a big deal.
Should’ve clearly been 1st n Goal from inside the 4 yard line

We settled for 3pts. But we would’ve had 3 tries to get 4 yards

Right, and later a Lions receiver got tangled up with a Packer defender, which looked similar to me and the Packers got flagged.

 

[JK64]

Just because you occasionally get away with dumb decisions doesn't make them smart.

They showed a stat with him calling fake punts. I think his success rate was up around 70%, if I remember right. Also, he calls more fake punts than anyone else. I was saying, watch out for the fake. I'm glad Basaccia was on the ball for that one.

 

[Sanguine camper]

Frankly, I think he tried that fake punt simply because he's an idiot.

Trying a fake punt vs the Packers has to be seem by all teams as a good risk given how bad the special teams have been over the years. It didn't work, so kudos finally to the Packer's special teams for not ******** up.

 

[BrokenArrow]

I bet packers wish they could say that

So back to what I said, do you have anything specific to say regarding the merits of his risky 4th down decisions in a playoff scenario? He turned down 2 FG chances and gave us the ball at their 20 yard line. That might well have been the difference in the game.