Will Free Agency affect our Draft?

[sschind]

So it looks like as many as 3-4 Edge guys could go before us, and 3-4 DL guys and a OT. It possibly leaves us with the number one ILB on board D. White LSU. its going to boil down to do you want 5th best Edge guy or number one ILB . thats tough...i think i go best value... we need help everywhere.

The 5th best edge guy might still be much better than the best ILB.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

GM's in both sports that I watch, hockey and football, say that they draft BPA based on their board and not on the basis of need. It makes sense, but if we go hard in FA and acquire a few good players (hopefully), do we still go the BPA route? Or do we change that to need by moving down (or up) in the draft and fill positions that we need?

Just curious about what you guys think about how FA may or may not affect the Draft outcome.

To me, I could see us using FA and going after players like Fowler or Easley and sticking them at OLB or DL. There's a wide stock available of free agents in the pass rush category that we could grab and free up all kinds of draft capital to spend on offense. Much more star power on offense is coming in this draft with almost no talent on defense except for our much needed S, so FA should be used to get the pass rushers while draft used for offense plus a FS.

 

[shockerx]

The 5th best edge guy might still be much better than the best ILB.

i think its going to be one of these three guys....they all sit around the 12 pick give or take.. Polite EDGE, D. white ILB, or J. Williams OT. if it has to be one of these guys ill go D. White.

 

[OldSchool101]

This isn’t pointed at any particular poster...I don’t think it’s as black and white as some would make it to be. It’s within reason
If the draft is particularly deep at a particular position grouping a team is unlikely to keep drafting at 1 position group each round just to get the “BAP” that round.

As an exaggerated effect, we’re highly likely to NOT draft 3 in a row at the DT position when we’re desperately needing an OLB or S.
Also as someone pointed out (Poker?) as the board gets picked over the BAP variance diminished as far as a point value. It’s far more likely you’d make an exception picks 1-16 vs picks 101-116.

I would go further to define the BAP theory as....
“if all things are equal within a reasonable threshold” you go BAP. That doesn’t mean drive your team off a cliff before you consider going need either.

My advice would be to have the team’s Actuary close by.

 

[ExpatPacker]

On that note, are Cobb and Matthews worth keeping on renegotiated contracts, i.e. a salary cut? Can their contracts be renegotiated at all? This of course assumes that Matthews and/or Cobb would agree to it.

So that means bringing them back on a much lower priced contract is very feasible. I don't see any team offering Matthews big money in FA. Cobb maybe.

 

[scotscheese]

How long roughly until we start hearing which of our FA's are being re-signed or let go?

 

[Poppa San]

How long roughly until we start hearing which of our FA's are being re-signed or let go?

March, when the players can start negotiating at the start of the new league year. Some respected vets may get their notice a few days earlier to give them time to find a team before the March rush. Re-signing can be any time between now and then.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

So it looks like as many as 3-4 Edge guys could go before us, and 3-4 DL guys and a OT. It possibly leaves us with the number one ILB on board D. White LSU. its going to boil down to do you want 5th best Edge guy or number one ILB . thats tough...i think i go best value... we need help everywhere.

I don't believe White presents the best value at #12.

So that means bringing them back on a much lower priced contract is very feasible. I don't see any team offering Matthews big money in FA. Cobb maybe.

The Packers might be smart to move on from both even if they would agree to reasonable deals.

 

[Mondio]

The Packers might be smart to move on from both even if they would agree to reasonable deals.

During the season I was right on the fence about that. Reasonable deals, not 10 million a year deals, for both players. But now, new HC, new OC, new, new, new. It's all going to be new on that side, familiarity in the offense is out the window and so is Cobb I think. Even if it was reasonable, I don't trust him to stay healthy any more and not really interested in investing more in him. Don't get me wrong, I love the guy. Great teammate, player when healthy, guy to have in the community, but it's time to grow with new players.

With Petting being retained and really nobody at that position, maybe, maybe, Matthews is back, but his salary will be halved at least. But I wouldn't even put 40/60 odds that he's back. I expect both to be with new teams.

 

[thequick12]

The 5th best edge guy might still be much better than the best ILB.

Except in this case by most accounts Devin white is viewed as a day one starter for any team in the league. I heard him called a bigger more study version of roquan Smith. He's exactly what the Packers defense has never had since I've been watching (magic barely,favre, Rodgers) a star 3 down middle lb. Put him next to Martinez or perhaps better yet Josh Jones or Oren Burks in packages maybe even Morrison. But just by making him the number one ilb you immediately get so much better. Martinez can still primarily be the other guy and get 100 tackles too but you got white in there 100% of the time your coverage instantly gets better etc
Granted I'm not saying draft white for sure I'm just saying he has to be strongly considered if he's on the board, he's a 3 down play maker and that's what any team needs more of

 

[Deleted member 6794]

With Petting being retained and really nobody at that position, maybe, maybe, Matthews is back, but his salary will be halved at least.

Matthews would have to agree to a larger pay cut for the Packers to retain him.

 

[thequick12]

During the season I was right on the fence about that. Reasonable deals, not 10 million a year deals, for both players. But now, new HC, new OC, new, new, new. It's all going to be new on that side, familiarity in the offense is out the window and so is Cobb I think. Even if it was reasonable, I don't trust him to stay healthy any more and not really interested in investing more in him. Don't get me wrong, I love the guy. Great teammate, player when healthy, guy to have in the community, but it's time to grow with new players.

With Petting being retained and really nobody at that position, maybe, maybe, Matthews is back, but his salary will be halved at least. But I wouldn't even put 40/60 odds that he's back. I expect both to be with new teams.

Yeah I agree I think its slim to none when talking about the chance of Cobb returning. Only way I can see it is if his market is so non exisistent that he's will to sign for a couple million dollars on a one year deal.
As for Matthews I guess I'd go 50/50. I think there's a 50% chance some team will offer him too much money. But if not there's a good chance he could be back for around 5 million a year. We've already heard of talk of him being moved to ilb by none other than Mike Pettine depending upon his return as d coordinator. Well Pettine is back might Matthews be as an ilb? It's certainly possible and may work pretty well considering how much pettine likes to rush his ilbs. I mean Martinez had 5 sacks could Matthews actually be more productive rushing on the inside in pettines scheme? I think so

 

[Deleted member 6794]

We've already heard of talk of him being moved to ilb by none other than Mike Pettine depending upon his return as d coordinator. Well Pettine is back might Matthews be as an ilb? It's certainly possible and may work pretty well considering how much pettine likes to rush his ilbs. I mean Martinez had 5 sacks could Matthews actually be more productive rushing on the inside in pettines scheme? I think so

Matthews might excel rushing the passer as an inside linebacker but he's not even an average player at the position in every aspect.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I mean, isn't the answer to this topic an obvious yes? If the Packers sign Earl Thomas then a safety isn't as high on the priority list. If the Packers sign Dee Ford (not happening cause Chiefs aren't letting him go) then edge rusher isn't as important.

 

[sschind]

Except in this case by most accounts Devin white is viewed as a day one starter for any team in the league. I heard him called a bigger more study version of roquan Smith. He's exactly what the Packers defense has never had since I've been watching (magic barely,favre, Rodgers) a star 3 down middle lb. Put him next to Martinez or perhaps better yet Josh Jones or Oren Burks in packages maybe even Morrison. But just by making him the number one ilb you immediately get so much better. Martinez can still primarily be the other guy and get 100 tackles too but you got white in there 100% of the time your coverage instantly gets better etc
Granted I'm not saying draft white for sure I'm just saying he has to be strongly considered if he's on the board, he's a 3 down play maker and that's what any team needs more of

I was speaking in general terms and not specifically of any players in this draft. You sold me on the Roquan Smith comparison. If we could get someone comparable to that at 12 I would be more than happy. Im not sating he will be the BPA at 12 or even that we have to take him if he is there, just that if he is and if the comparison is accurate he certainly needs to be considered.

 

[thequick12]

Matthews might excel rushing the passer as an inside linebacker but he's not even an average player at the position in every aspect.

Neither are any of the other guys the Packers currently have on the roster. I guess Martinez is average. I think Josh Jones has a chance to be above average if used in the right way as a ilb. I'd say Matthews is better in coverage and rushing than Martinez. Idk it's not my idea it's Mike Pettine's, I just read it on ESPN. I wouldn't nessicarily want Matthews to play every down on the inside but I think he could be a useful piece on a defense if you move him around rush him from different spots maybe scheme some pressures for him. He's not an every down player at this point but if kept fresh and used in the right packages, he could help a team win

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Neither are any of the other guys the Packers currently have on the roster. I guess Martinez is average. I think Josh Jones has a chance to be above average if used in the right way as a ilb.

Martinez is definitely a better inside linebacker than Matthews. While the Packers need another player at the position Clay isn't a significant upgrade over any other player at the position currently on the roster.

 

[thequick12]

Martinez is definitely a better inside linebacker than Matthews. While the Packers need another player at the position Clay isn't a significant upgrade over any other player at the position currently on the roster.

You conveniently didnt include the part where I said I wouldn't want Matthews to be an every down ilb etc. I said he could help the team playing inside in some packages being used as a piece you can line up all over but not every down in that role either. Matthews is a rotational player at this point if you wanna maximize his impact.
Also I never said Matthews was a better ilb than Martinez. You said Matthews wasn't even avg and I said I guess Martinez is avg. Implying I believe Martinez to be the better ilb.
The Packers since 1992 have never had a real 3 down impact Ilb playmaker. And there's a decent chance the best player available when the Packers pick at 12 could be that kind of player, Devin White

 

[Deleted member 6794]

You conveniently didnt include the part where I said I wouldn't want Matthews to be an every down ilb etc. I said he could help the team playing inside in some packages being used as a piece you can line up all over but not every down in that role either. Matthews is a rotational player at this point if you wanna maximize his impact.

Matthews might still excel rushing the passer from inside but with him struggling at every other aspect of playing the position the Packers defense wouldn't improve by moving him there.

 

[Dblbogey]

On that note, are Cobb and Matthews worth keeping on renegotiated contracts, i.e. a salary cut? Can their contracts be renegotiated at all? This of course assumes that Matthews and/or Cobb would agree to it.

Cobb hasn't been Cobb for 4 years now. Injuries took their toll. He can't separate, goes down at first contact, and misses half the games. He's gone. I'd keep Mathews at $4-5 million if he'd agree and move him inside primarily. I'd love to cut Perry but the dead money is awfully high. Personally, I'd keep Bulaga, he played very well the last 2-3 games coming back from an ACL last year and we have nothing else at RT. Get a safety and OG in F.A. and draft OLB, OL and tight end early. Move Josh Jackson to safety. Now that's I've done Gute's job for him, he can relax.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I'd keep Mathews at $4-5 million if he'd agree and move him inside primarily.

Matthews isn't good enough as an inside linebacker to be worth $4-5 million.

 

[Alex]

Move Josh Jackson to safety.

I see this a lot. I think Josh has the potential to be a great CB, it was his rookie year. He has some learning to do, why give up on him at that position already?

 

[OldSchool101]

Matthews might still excel rushing the passer from inside but with him struggling at every other aspect of playing the position the Packers defense wouldn't improve by moving him there.

There’s a pretty big variance of opinion on him being moved inside. I will only restate that the GB Defensive ranking against the run improved dramatically and immediately the minute he moved inside. Now he wasn’t the only factor, as I’ve stated numerous times it allowed us to get our best available talent on the field simultaneously. Peppers and Perry manning the Edge and AJ and CM3 manning the middle was nothing short of a formidable middle crew. CM3 was absolutely and positively a factor in the success against scoring and the running game.

Without Matthews at ILB the first 8 games;

154yds allowed rushing per game
226 passing per game
24pts per game
24 1st downs per game

With Matthews at ILB the last 8 games:

86yds allowed rushing per game
227 passing per game
20pts per game
19 1st down allowed per game

Now that said. My guess is that Clay isn’t going inside for 5M so it’s a mute point either way

 

[Mondio]

I see this a lot. I think Josh has the potential to be a great CB, it was his rookie year. He has some learning to do, why give up on him at that position already?

What do you mean? The guy had an entire year in college to learn how to play the position. He had like 14 interceptions against they very un-prone to turnovers Alex Hornibrook. If he can't be a polished NFL DB after that, he's never going to make it. The fact he wasn't named an All Pro or even a measly pro bowl nod after last year just proves he was a bust. Time to find him another position or or find him time on the couch, as he just can't hack it at DB.

 

[sschind]

What do you mean? The guy had an entire year in college to learn how to play the position. He had like 14 interceptions against they very un-prone to turnovers Alex Hornibrook. If he can't be a polished NFL DB after that, he's never going to make it. The fact he wasn't named an All Pro or even a measly pro bowl nod after last year just proves he was a bust. Time to find him another position or or find him time on the couch, as he just can't hack it at DB.

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