1. Welcome to Green Bay Packers NFL Football Forum & Community!

    Packer Forum is one of the largest online communities for the Green Bay Packers. You are currently viewing our community forums as a guest user.

    Sign Up or

    Having an account grants you additional privileges, such as creating and participating in discussions. Furthermore, we hide most of the ads once you register as a member!
    Dismiss Notice

Trading off the 1st round pick

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by XPack, Mar 31, 2015.

  1. XPack

    XPack Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2014
    Messages:
    454
    Ratings:
    +183
    Didn't see a thread on this.

    There seem to be quite a number of articles in the net on advantages of doing so. The pool for whom we need (ILB, Cornerback) is not that high to warrant a first round pick. A high 2nd round plus an additional pick should do it seems to be a growing opinion.

    What do ya'll think?
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  2. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2012
    Messages:
    2,792
    Ratings:
    +2,175
    All situation dependent to me. If a guy slips to #30 that is high on our need list and it's a good value, make the pick. If we've got no need for the value at #30 and our guy is more in our mid-2nd round pick range of where we think he will go, find a buyer and grab an extra pick.

    The one thing I don't like about losing the late 1st compared to an early 2nd is having only 4 years of club control for a high 2nd versus 5 years for a low first. But still, if the situation warrants it, it can pay off.
     
    • Agree Agree x 4
  3. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2012
    Messages:
    12,688
    Ratings:
    +6,639
    Once again I would be fine with trading back if Thompson thinks that the players still on the board don´t present enough value.

    But you have to realize finding a team willing to trade up isn´t always that easy. Thompson was offering the 24th pick in the 2005 draft but didn´t find any takers before selecting Rodgers.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  4. 7thFloorRA

    7thFloorRA Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2011
    Messages:
    2,266
    Ratings:
    +1,075
    Only if he can turn it into 2 high second round picks. Not sure if that is going to be possible with what other teams have to deal. That probably allows you to take a good CB, ILB and another BPA.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  5. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2012
    Messages:
    12,688
    Ratings:
    +6,639
    There´s no way the Packers get two early second round picks in return for the 30th selection.
     
    • Agree Agree x 3
  6. Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

    Dr. Kenneth Noisewater Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2015
    Messages:
    69
    Ratings:
    +16
    I've spoken about this on another thread today but I'll repeat in here.

    The two players I could've seen TT spending first round picks on are Jordan Phillips and Kevin Johnson. Yesterday, Raji and Guion were both re-signed so I can't see them picking a NT at 30 anymore.

    If you have a bit of patience and you know what to look for, you can find a top quality corner anywhere in the draft. The consensus seems to be that the coaches like Hayward and Shields as our starting corners next season, so TT can be a little patient and take a developmental CB later on in the draft.

    I haven't seen any ILBs going in the first round of a mock draft for months now so I'd be in favour of trading back into the second round.

    If we could end up with 3 second round picks and keep our third rounder like in 2008, that would be ideal, so long as TT doesn't pick the second coming of Brian Brohm.
     
  7. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2012
    Messages:
    12,688
    Ratings:
    +6,639
    Lance Zierlein of NFL.com has Eric Kendricks going in the first round. Thompson traded the 30th pick in the 2008 draft for the 36th and a fourth round selection, the Packers received the third second rounder for trading Corey Williams before the draft.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Disagree Disagree x 1
  8. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2012
    Messages:
    2,792
    Ratings:
    +2,175
    Going strictly by the draft value chart, the 30th overall selection is roughly worth a mid 2nd and a mid 3rd. To get two 2nd's for the #30, you'd have to drop to near the bottom of the 2nd for those 2 picks. Right now there isn't even a team with two 2nd's to trade unless you're going into future years.

    A mid 2nd and a mid 3rd is realistic, but no idea with what team it would be.
     
  9. Carl

    Carl Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2013
    Messages:
    2,771
    Ratings:
    +1,922
    If there are no good value picks at 30 at ILB or CB and there are no good trade offers, TT could end up taking the best guy regardless of position and address the needs later on.

    I've seen that this class has about 20 first round worthy prospects so finding a trade partner may be difficult.
     
  10. Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

    Dr. Kenneth Noisewater Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2015
    Messages:
    69
    Ratings:
    +16
    Huh, guess I missed one. The point stands, though, one ILB going and that's at 29.

    The other thing is that at various points this offseason a lot of people have supposedly been the best ILB in the draft. Kendricks there, McKinney, Dawson and Perryman at other times. I don't think it's worth a first rounder to pick someone where there could easily be better players a little later.
     
  11. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2012
    Messages:
    12,688
    Ratings:
    +6,639
    Kendricks has been mostly ranked as the best available ILB in this year's draft for quite some time now. With him being able to play all three downs and to cover RBs and TEs he perfectly fits the Packers need
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  12. Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

    Dr. Kenneth Noisewater Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2015
    Messages:
    69
    Ratings:
    +16
    I accept that but from what I've seen I still think it's fair to say there isn't a clear consensus, ie. if he is the best, it's not by a long way.

    I like Kendricks and he's in some illustrious company as a Butkus Award winner, but ideally I want two ILBs in the first three rounds and I can't see any of the decent ILBs falling to 94. In fact, even if we say Kendricks is worth pick, there's no guarantee he falls to 30 with all the teams ahead of us that need an ILB.
     
  13. AKCheese

    AKCheese Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2014
    Messages:
    319
    Ratings:
    +146
    Lot of areas of "need" (DL OL CB LB) so if GB sees a guy they like slip to them, I don't think they trade the pick unless somebody else is really chomping at the bit to snag a guy and makes a great offer to jump back into the first round. The only reason I'd be against making a move like that is....you wait hours for GB to go "on the clock" and then......DAYUM!!!
     
  14. thisisnate

    thisisnate Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2012
    Messages:
    832
    Ratings:
    +506
    This is something that is in play every single draft and will always be entirely situational dependent upon who is available. If it makes sense to trade down, I'm sure it's something they'll look into, but a willing partner is not always available.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  15. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2011
    Messages:
    3,522
    Ratings:
    +1,991
    There's always the Vikings, who keep trading back into the first round the past three drafts - twice in 2012, three times in 2013, and twice again last year! There will always be fools, you just have to know them well enough to consummate the deal. :roflmao:

    I have a problem with this logic -- not you specifically though DKN. First round picks aren't to be strictly used on players that you expect to start as rookies. Why shouldn't we draft the best player at one of our three positions of high need (NT, ILB, CB) if one is available? I'd rather have that rookie first round NT ride the pine his rookie season and learn from Raji and Guion, adjust to the speed of the game, without the pressures associated with being a high pick. Let's never forget that these are just 21 or 22 year old kids with the weight of the world on their big shoulders. It can and does cause some of them to fail just as much as the physical side of the game.

    To the OP, I did a big analysis of Green Bay's first round draft picks back to the mid-70s. While I'm a fan of trading back, historically the Packers have been pretty good in the first round. Using my proprietary, subjective rating system, the Packers have made 26 successful first round draft picks since 1976 with 15 failures, a 63% rate of success (the last three drafts are excluded). Topping the list of GMs was Bart Starr with a 73% rate, TT not far behind at 71%, Mike Sherman and Forrest Gregg tied at 67% with only three drafts/picks each, and Ron Wolf at 64%. Those are pretty good rates in general although I don't have any statistics on the NFL as a whole. I can say that we have better luck with mid-to-late rounders in the first rather than top ten picks.

    So while I'm still a proponent of trading away for quantity vs perceived quality, the Packers have a good track record in the round so I'm never concerned.
     
  16. XPack

    XPack Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2014
    Messages:
    454
    Ratings:
    +183
    This is relatively a weak draft for positions we need. A top ILB/DB this year may not be actually worth a first round pick, maybe in other years.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  17. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2011
    Messages:
    3,522
    Ratings:
    +1,991
    One other tidbit about Packers drafting history in the first round. From 1976 until 1991, Green Bay's average draft position was 14. Due to the success of Ron Wolf's teams, his average draft position was 20. Mike Sherman's average position was almost 25 and Ted Thompson's average is the 21st spot.

    The above includes traded picks. For example: when TT traded back into the first round to select Clay Matthews in the 26th spot, that weighs eqully into the equation as BJ Raji's selection at #9 with the Packers' allocated pick for 2009.
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  18. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2013
    Messages:
    1,917
    Ratings:
    +736
    He's not that good against the run and he's kinda small to play 3-4ILB on a team without a good NT. I would imagine that there will be better values on the dline, CB or TE on the board for the Packers to select from. Guys like Kwon Alexander or Paul Dawson should be available for the Packers in the second round and neither of them is that far off from Kendricks. McKinney would probably the better value in the second round rather than Kendricks in the first if you want to talk about trading down.
     
  19. Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

    Dr. Kenneth Noisewater Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2015
    Messages:
    69
    Ratings:
    +16
    I agree entirely with your last few sentences and I agree with the first part in principle, but I think our need at ILB is so glaring that it takes precedence over the other two. We desperately need some quality there and if TT were to spend our highest draft pick elsewhere... irresponsible doesn't cover it.
     
    • Disagree Disagree x 1
  20. TJV

    TJV Lifelong Packers Fanatic

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2011
    Messages:
    5,389
    Ratings:
    +4,176
    I think it's likely the first pick will be an ILB but I take the opposite view: If Thompson spends his first pick on an ILB, no matter what, no matter who else is available, IMO that would be irresponsible.
     
    • Agree Agree x 5
    • Winner Winner x 1
  21. Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

    Dr. Kenneth Noisewater Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2015
    Messages:
    69
    Ratings:
    +16
    Note: I said our first pick, not the 30th pick of the draft. Having said that, obviously you're right in absolute terms, but I can't envision a scenario in which taking an ILB first wouldn't be the best move.
     
  22. TJV

    TJV Lifelong Packers Fanatic

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2011
    Messages:
    5,389
    Ratings:
    +4,176
    Just thought I'd note I said the first pick, not the 30th pick too! ;)

    If I had to guess - and I'm not a draftnik - I'd guess Anthony is an ILB they like. I'd also guess he'd be available after #30 but perhaps not at #62 (?) so a trade down may be in order. But it takes two to tango so that's not within Thompson's control.
     
  23. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

    Joined:
    May 2, 2012
    Messages:
    1,073
    Ratings:
    +331
    I fully expect TT to trade if value is there or not if it isn't.
     
  24. Vrill

    Vrill Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2011
    Messages:
    1,782
    Ratings:
    +828
    Its one thing wanting to trade back, but its another thing entirely to find a trading partner to do it with. Usually, when you're the one wanting to trade back, its hard to find a partner. These types of "trade back scenarios" usually only happen when someone calls YOU wanting to trade up into your pick.

    With that said, I wouldn't mind us trading back into the front of the 2nd round and pick up an extra mid rounder or two.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  25. Vrill

    Vrill Cheesehead

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2011
    Messages:
    1,782
    Ratings:
    +828
    It depends how far a team moves up into our position. I've seen teams get 1st rounders in return for this type of trade. Seems like the Saints gave up a 1st rounder to move up and select Mark Ingram that year.
     

Share This Page