Regarding trading down with pick #30: Quite a while ago I remember reading an interview with Thompson in which he talked about trading one year’s picks for another’s and he said he didn’t believe in doing that. He may not have been that blunt about it – Thompson usually isn’t – but that was the gist of what he was saying. We all know Thompson has been a prolific trader of draft picks, usually trading down but occasionally trading up and I don’t remember even one instance of Thompson receiving, or giving up picks from a future draft, even in his most dramatic trade up for Matthews.
Given Thompson’s MO for building teams, I understand not giving up future picks. That would be somewhat similar to “going for broke in UFA” in that it could jeopardize the future to a degree. But I don’t understand not being willing to receive future picks when trading down, particularly because Thompson so values draft picks and because he properly views those picks as building for the future. Anyway, if Thompson does trade down out of #30, his history tells us we shouldn’t expect him to receive a future pick as part of the deal.
Good point about TT's normal approach being to gain additional ammunition within the current draft- I'm with you in that aside from the Brandon Underwood reminder I couldn't lay my finger on an instance of TT picking up a future pick to move down.
That said, I wonder if that's because he pushes for picks in the current year as a matter of principle, or if that's because teams don't offer the picks in subsequent years OR because TT is too ready to take lesser this year picks rather than wait on higher value next year ones. Guess those are things you only know if you're in the war room. It would be cool to know!
I also think that it kind of takes a perfect storm to get multiple same round early picks- the player someone is trading to obtain has to be a big deal/great value at our pick to motivate them to part with a package that oversteps the general frame of the Johnson draft pick value chart. RGIII is the most prominent example- he wasn't a number one pick, but in another draft he might have been, which is why Washington sold the farm to get him.
Hypothetically, the only way a team might trade use their second this year, and their second next year along with some lesser picks (late rounder this year perhaps) is if a player tumbled down the draft that fit a team's need/value equation and there are a series of teams likely to take him below our pick. That's a lot of moving parts necessary to precipitate a move that would warrant such a play by a team trading into our spot, which I suppose is why you don't see a lot of teams sell the farm (or at least the back 40) to get into the low first round, which is where TT typically picks... Can't say I can fault him for not reaping this kind of windfall- it would be pretty exceptional for that to happen.
That said, knowing that TT is about bang for the buck where you pick a guy as a key aspect of draft strategy, you'd have to think he'd be amenable to a trade that gave similar return on the present draft and significantly enhanced next year's at the same time.
In the end, I put our odds of getting two early 2nd rounders for our first this year in the same neighbourhood as the Maple Leafs winning the Stanley Cup this season.
