Tracking the NFC North

adambr2

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The guy with entirely too much time on his hands? :)

LOL, well the ESPN playoff machine used to make it easy, but it hasn't been working right this year yet.

The answer as far as I can tell is that it would come all the way down to strength of victory and could end up being very close.
 
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:rolleyes:
Here's an interesting, but not outrageous scenario for the tiebreaker experts to ponder.

- Green Bay has two home games against Houston and Seattle now , win them both, win in Chicago, and win back at home against Minnesota to go into Week 17 at 9-6.

- Detroit wins only at home against the Bears, and drops road games against the Saints, Cowboys , and Giants to drop to 8-7 going into Week 17.

- Detroit wins Week 17 .

Who wins the North (assuming Minnesota is not in it,) and on what tiebreaker?
This is a very good question because it's an anomaly of tie breakers.
In this scenario 1.The records are even 1.head to head is even. The common opponents are even (we lost to Colts and skins but Detroit won both so they are 2 common opponents ahead and their 2 future losses to the Giants and Dallas would even up the head to head records)
So the equation would result in Conference records or essentially even at 7-5 vs 7-5 and thus results in strength of victory for the common opponents which is also even
Tie Breaker 6 Rule : Strength of Schedule

Excluding all common teams we've both played which essentially negate one another.,
GB played the Falcons who are 7-4
Detroit played the Saints at 5-6 (Who would be 6-6 in this scenario with 4 games remaining) So we lost to a better team and the odds are heavily in GBs favor like 86% but we won't know until week 14 because the final records between these 2 are undetermined
Let's do our job and win a reasonable of 4/5 including a W against the Lions to close out..and get just a smidgen of help from The Saints this week and we'll be in decent shape. While not easy,this is a very doable scenario
 
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Here's an interesting, but not outrageous scenario for the tiebreaker experts to ponder.

- Green Bay has two home games against Houston and Seattle now , win them both, win in Chicago, and win back at home against Minnesota to go into Week 17 at 9-6.

- Detroit wins only at home against the Bears, and drops road games against the Saints, Cowboys , and Giants to drop to 8-7 going into Week 17.

- Detroit wins Week 17 .

Who wins the North (assuming Minnesota is not in it,) and on what tiebreaker?

So the equation would result in Conference records or essentially even at 7-5 vs 7-5 and thus results in strength of victory for the common opponents which is also even
Tie Breaker 6 Rule : Strength of Schedule

Actually strength of victory would decide the division winner in this case as it's not restricted to common opponents. Taking the results of your post into consideration that would currently favor the Packers with a SOV of .428 over the Lions at .421. That might change the rest of the season though.
 

adambr2

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Actually strength of victory would decide the division winner in this case as it's not restricted to common opponents. Taking the results of your post into consideration that would currently favor the Packers with a SOV of .428 over the Lions at .421. That might change the rest of the season though.

That's what I got too. But when I plug those results in ESPN's playoff machine , they had Detroit winning it on the common games tiebreaker. As far as I can tell both teams would be 7-5 in common games. I hadn't run into a situation where the playoff machine was wrong but that sure seems wrong to me.
 
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PackAttack12

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Well Ladies and Gentleman, we at least have more of a reason to hope than we did at this time last week! With a big win over the Eagles at their place in primetime, our Packers have now moved to 5-6, just one game behind the Vikes and 2 games behind the Lions. We control our own destiny if I'm not mistaken over the Vikings, even being one game back since we play them again and we currently hold the tie breaker advantage on them. And the Lions have an extremely tough finishing schedule.

Updated as of Week 11:


Lions - 7-4
Vikings - 6-5
Packers - 5-6


Remaining schedules:

Green Bay:

Texans 6-5
Seahawks 7-3-1
@Bears 2-9
Vikings 6-5
@Lions 7-4

Minnesota:

Cowboys 10-1
@Jaguars 2-9
Colts 5-6
@Packers 5-6
Bears 2-9

Detroit:

@Saints 5-6
Bears 2-9
@Giants 8-3
@Cowboys 10-1
Packers 5-6

This week could be the week that the outlook on the race for the North is changed entirely. Under this extremely plausible scenario (Vikings lose to the Cowboys, the Lions lose at the Saints, and the Packers win a home game against the Brock led Texans) we would move into a tie with the Vikings, firming our strangle hold on that matchup, and thus moving to within just one game of the first place Lions, in which we would again control our own destiny since we play them in the last regular season game, and a win would give us a two game sweep on them, locking up the tie breaker and ultimately the division.

My only concern is that it's entirely unlikely that the Cowboys win out, and Zimmer's defense could be group to solve Dak at least for one night. But if the Cowboys play the way that they have played of late, and Dak doesn't try to do too much, this will certainly be a loss for the Vikings. This is the one game where I am an avid Cowboys fan, as I know the rest of us are!

And even if the Lions beat the Saints in New Orleans (which I don't think that they will), they still have two very losable road games to the Giants and Cowboys before squaring off with the Pack for what could be all the marbles.

Of course, the most important part of this equation is for the Packers to take care of business against an opponent that they should handle without much of an issue, if we play up to our capability, and then that would set up a week 14 showdown at Lambeau v.s. the Seahawks.

A win there and it's truly game on.

Let's GO!
 

Pokerbrat2000

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if we play up to our capability, and then that would set up a week 14 showdown at Lambeau v.s. the Seahawks.

A win there and it's truly game on.

Let's GO!

Going to take more than just this last win against the Eagles for me to believe the Packers have turned this season around. But I agree, if we beat the Texans AND then play well and beat the Seahawks, that would most definitely mean this team could possibly do something. While technically, we may not have to win out to make the playoffs, at this point, winning out would bolster my confidence in the team moving forward. Limping in at 8-8 or 9-7 due to a bad division, wouldn't say much. All that being said, we would need everyone healthy and the secondary playing much better to go into Seattle and/or Dallas and beat 1 or both of those teams in the playoffs.

Beat the Texans and see where we truly are at against the Seahawks.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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1/2 game closer to catching the Vikings! Actually watched the game tonight. The Vikings offense doesn't scare me in the least, but their defense is definitely going to keep them in games. WTG Cowboys!
 

Snoops

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Ultimately if the falcons lose some games and same with the Seahawks and we beat them we potentially could still get a bye even lol
 

adambr2

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Ultimately if the falcons lose some games and same with the Seahawks and we beat them we potentially could still get a bye even lol

I know you're mostly kidding but Seattle has a pretty gravy schedule the rest of the way and Atlanta's isn't too much tougher. That ship sailed when we decided to play terrible football and not win for over a month.

If we can finish 4-1 and land the division and 4 seed at 9-7 I'll be completely thrilled.
 

adambr2

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Sadly, I am not convinced we are playing "good football" yet.

Well, I thought Sunday was pretty good football, though for sure still with some things to work on. But the key now is consistency of it -- was it a one off, or can we keep doing it?

We didn't get into the situation we're in because of one bad game, and we won't get out of it with one good game. So I can't blame anyone for still being cautious and hesitant to believe yet that this team will even sniff the playoffs.
 
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So I can't blame anyone for still being cautious and hesitant to believe yet that this team will even sniff the playoffs.

Especially as the Eagles don't have a lot of weapons on offense. I won't feel confident in the Packers defense until they prove capable of containing a good passing offense.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Especially as the Eagles don't have a lot of weapons on offense. I won't feel confident in the Packers defense until they prove capable of containing a good passing offense.

I don't think this is going to happen with the current personnel. The only way I do see it happening is by improved play and forcing more turnovers. The Packers Defense has forced only 6 fumbles (recovered 3), which is tied for 2nd to last in league. Former Packer Casey Heyward has 2 less interception (6) then the entire Packer Defense (8).
 

El Guapo

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I don't think that any of us should be surprised by the turnover ratio. This is 100% because of injuries. Our CBs have been holding on for dear life, trying to run with opposing WRs so going for an INT is the last thought on their minds. Randall and Rollins should continue to get healthy, and then we should see more INTs.

Hats off to the Vikings. They played their hearts out last night but lost. According to ESPN (http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/223136/ranking-nfl-teams-most-affected-by-injuries) they are the most injured team in football, followed by the Packers and Bears. A win would have been impressive, but I was still impressed with their defense. The Vikings held one of the best offenses to 10 points, plus a gimme TD after the Thelen fumble near their own endzone.
 

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The playoff picture gets to be very confusing at this point with the way it changes as often as I change my underwear.
I'll just wait and see who gets in instead of playing along with the guessing games as it is now.
Way too early to tell if the Packers get in. And even if they do, so what. Nothing to get excited about since I expect them to lose and go home as we have been doing the last few seasons.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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I highly doubt it as well but maybe Randall and Rollins finally getting healthy will improve the performance by the secondary.

As long as they both stay healthy, I agree and hope their play improves. But at this point in their careers, I don't view either of them as stellar #1 and #2 CB's.
 

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