Tracking the NFC North

Packerlifer

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We be Bears and Jaguars fans this Sunday.

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I don't expect the Bears will be of any help to the Packers this week but I think there's a chance the Jags could spring the upset on the Queenies. They've been tough at home this season; losing to the Pack by 4 pts., Baltimore by 2, Houston by 3 and they beat Indy there 30-27.
 
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PackerDNA

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Also rooting for the opponents of the Giants, Redskins, Falcons, Bucs, and Cards.
Yeah, I'm greedy.
 
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PackAttack12

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Updated as of Week 13:

Lions - 8-4
Vikings - 6-6
Packers - 6-6


Remaining schedules:

Green Bay:

Seahawks 8-3-1
@Bears 3-9
Vikings 6-6
@Lions 8-4

Minnesota:

@Jaguars 2-10
Colts 6-6
@Packers 6-6
Bears 3-9

Detroit:

Bears 3-9
@Giants 8-4
@Cowboys 11-1
Packers 6-6

We might as well track the wild card as well now that it's looking more doable:

5. Giants (Cowboys, Lions, @Eagles, @Redskins remaining)
6. Bucs (Saints, @Cowboys, @Saints, Panthers remaining)
7. Redskins (@Eagles, Panthers, @Bears, Giants remaining)
8. Vikings (@Jags, Colts, @Packers, Bears remaining)
9. Packers (Seahawks, @Bears, Vikings, @Lions remaining)

Tough stretch for the Giants. I'm hoping the Panthers find a way to catch fire down the stretch. No cakewalk for the Bucs in their middle two games.

Key Week 14 Matchups:

Redskins at Eagles -
Philly has imploded lately, having lost three in a row after sitting at 5-4 after 9 games. Not a lot f hope that the Eagles can help us here, however Philly has made every quarterback not named Aaron Rodgers look silly at home, beating two premiere quarterbacks in Matt Ryan and Big Ben. Hopefully Carson Wentz can snap out of his funk and Kirk Cousins can crumble in a hostile environment in Philly. This could be one of those games where every one says that a team doesn't have a chance in hell, and then they pull off the upset. Washington is a bit banged up upfront, and Philly has some weapons back healthy
Prediction: Eagles in the upset

Cardinals at Dolphins -
Just can't seem to trust the Cardinals. They have all of the talent in the world, but just haven't been able to put it all together consistently to string some wins together. Miami very well could have gotten exposed against the Ravens, but man that's a good defense in Baltimore. I don't see Miami's offense struggling quite like that against this Cardinals team at home. This is a tough game to call, the Dolphins are terrible against the run, and David Johnson is a stud, but there is something to be said for Miami being a really good home team, and Arizona being an awful road team. Having to travel cross country for a 1pm kickoff...
Prediction: Dolphins in a close one, but not saying this with much conviction.

Bears at Lions -
What can I say. I have no faith in the Bears, but if this game were gonna be played in Chicago, I would give them a puncher's chance. But the Lions are on a roll right now, and I think that at home they will take care of business against the Bears, although I hope like hell that I am wrong. This would be a huge upset for the Packer's playoff chances, but I just can't make the argument.
Prediction - Lions rather easily

Vikings at Jaguars -
The Vikings have been almost as big of a joke as the Packers were during their 4 game losing streak, however they did play the Cowboys very tough without Zimmer. The only hope in this one is that the trip down south distracts them, and Bortles just has a crazy hot hand and lights them up. Unfortunately, I don't foresee that happening. The Vikings are great when they are forcing turnovers and making life uncomfortable for quarterbacks, and that's exactly what I see happening here. The Jags have mailed it in. Vikes at least have hope.
Prediction: Vikings, but closer than one would think

Falcons at Rams -
The Bucs have been depressing me lately with their good play, but the only upside is that they are playing so well that maybe they play into the division lead. Matt Ryan's passer rating has been way down the past three games (right on cue with past seasons). But to be fair, he has gone up against some pretty good defenses. After this one, the Falcons have a pretty friendly schedule unfortunately against 49ers, Panthers, and Saints. Maybe Cam will play with nothing to lose and the Saints get an insane day from Drew Brees. One thing is for certain, a loss by the Falcons here spells BIG trouble for the Falcons, here's to hoping Jeff Fisher pulls out one of those "where did that come from" games.
Prediction: Falcons

Saints at Buccaneers -
The Saints disappointed us big time last week in not taking care of the Lions at home. This week they are tasked with taking on one of the hottest teams in football right now. Winston is balling, but his team is inexplicably bad at home this season, though they beat the Seahawks a couple weeks ago and beat the Bears before that. They struggled a bit with the Chargers last week, and I think this will be a come back down to Earth game. Winston has had a QBR of 80 or higher his past 4 games, and I think he's due for a clunker here. Probably a heart pick, but Brees had an awful game last week, don't see that happening twice in a row.
Prediction: Saints in the upset

Seahawks at Packers -
All of this won't mean much if the Packers don't keep winning. Earl Thomas is a huge loss for Seattle's defense, and they just aren't that good of a road team. I don't know if they "get up" for this game like they did the New England game. The snow will play a factor, and I think that will compromise their pass rush and zone concepts enough to where Rodgers and the offense will be able to make just enough plays to squeeze by. Rodgers loves these "back against the wall" propositions, and he knows that winning this game would change everything as far as the outlook in the playoff race. Hopefully Starks gets minimal snaps, he was the only GB running back that wasn't effective running the ball last week against Houston, so I see a lot of Ty and Michael, and RIP situationally.
Prediction: Green Bay 27-20

Cowboys at Giants -
At what point do the Cowboys have a bad game? Jerry Jones has open his big fat stupid mouth like he always does singing the praises of Tony Romo. Does that create enough of a distraction? I think the primetime nature of this game, Sunday Night, potential cold weather game could rattle Dak a little bit. I mean, he's still a rookie right? On the other hand, if the Giants lose this game, they aren't a shoe in to make the playoffs. They have to finish with the Lions, and then two road games at Philly and at Washington. And we have the tie breaker on them. My emotions are extremely mixed on this game, maybe someone can help me out. On the one hand, the Giants losing helps us in the wild card race, but at the same time, if they do indeed lose, Dallas all but sews up home field advantage. What incentive then does Dallas have to play all of their horses against the Lions the day after Christmas in what could be a meaningless game? All things being equal, I think the Cowboys let down here and the Giants find a way to get it done.
Prediction: Giants in a close one

All and all, I'm starting to have a little bit of doubt that the Lions will lose again after the way they looked last week. So the wild card might be the more realistic path if indeed the Lions keep playing the way they have played lately. Of course we would need for one of the NFC South teams to implode. Either that, or the Giants need to go on a big skid. It's encouraging that we have essentially three cracks at this thing, but the Giants beating the Cowboys would all but lock them in, and the Bucs and Falcons both currently have tie breaker advantages on us.

So much can happen in four games. I just hope that we take care of our business against the Seahawks tomorrow, and that we get some help from at least the Saints in beating Tampa.
 
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PackAttack12

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Assuming we win out:

We win the division with a Detroit loss to New York and/or Dallas

We get a wild card birth with:
- any two Tampa Bay losses
- any one loss by Washington

This is also assuming that Atlanta wins the South (we want this, they have the tie breaker on us) Then again, I suppose 2 losses by Atlanta would do the trick as well...

We need to be the biggest fans of the Giants, Panthers, and Cowboys next week.

There's a slight chance we could get by with just 1 Tampa loss , but we would have to rely upon winning the strength of victory tie breaker on them (we currently hold that advantage beating teams with a 46.6% winning percentage v.s. them beating teams with a 43.7% winning percentage)

If I have made an error, please feel free to point it out.
 

Robert Mason

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Assuming we win out:

We win the division with a Detroit loss to New York and/or Dallas

We get a wild card birth with:
- any two Tampa Bay losses
- any one loss by Washington

This is also assuming that Atlanta wins the South (we want this, they have the tie breaker on us) Then again, I suppose 2 losses by Atlanta would do the trick as well...

We need to be the biggest fans of the Giants, Panthers, and Cowboys next week.

There's a slight chance we could get by with just 1 Tampa loss , but we would have to rely upon winning the strength of victory tie breaker on them (we currently hold that advantage beating teams with a 46.6% winning percentage v.s. them beating teams with a 43.7% winning percentage)

If I have made an error, please feel free to point it out.



You forgot there has to be a full moon with Mars, Venus, Jupitor and Pluto in perfect alignment.
 
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There's a slight chance we could get by with just 1 Tampa loss , but we would have to rely upon winning the strength of victory tie breaker on them (we currently hold that advantage beating teams with a 46.6% winning percentage v.s. them beating teams with a 43.7% winning percentage)

If I have made an error, please feel free to point it out.

You got most of the stuff right but the Packers (.478) currently have a broader lead over the Buccaneers (.438) in strength over victory. That might change over the rest of the season though.
 

adambr2

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Just pretty much ignore ESPN'S playoff machine, it seems to be plagued with inaccuracies again this year. I've had better luck with Yahoo's but that one doesn't explain tiebreakers.

Here's the gist of it all:

We need Detroit to lose 1 of it's next 2 in New York (Giants) or Dallas. If they do, we can win the division by winning out. If they lose both, we could win it at 9-7, but the only loss we could likely afford would be this Sunday in Chicago.

If on the off chance Detroit manages to win both games and clinch the division, there are still numerous scenarios where we could catch a WC at 10-6.

There are still nightmare mathematical scenarios where we could win out and still be left out, but it's highly unlikely .

One way or another , win out and we should be fine.
 

PikeBadger

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Just pretty much ignore ESPN'S playoff machine, it seems to be plagued with inaccuracies again this year. I've had better luck with Yahoo's but that one doesn't explain tiebreakers.

Here's the gist of it all:

We need Detroit to lose 1 of it's next 2 in New York (Giants) or Dallas. If they do, we can win the division by winning out. If they lose both, we could win it at 9-7, but the only loss we could likely afford would be this Sunday in Chicago.

If on the off chance Detroit manages to win both games and clinch the division, there are still numerous scenarios where we could catch a WC at 10-6.

There are still nightmare mathematical scenarios where we could win out and still be left out, but it's highly unlikely .

One way or another , win out and we should be fine.
Agree. Just win baby. 9-7 teams have zero reason to whine about not being lucky or getting help from other teams. We only got help from Miami yesterday. Win out, get one helper a week and we'll get in. I'm more concerned about the overall injury situation on the team right now than anything else. If that doesn't improve, we're going to have a tough time winning a playoff game unless everyone else is beaten to a pulp as well.
 
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PackAttack12

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We get a wild card birth with:
- any two Tampa Bay losses
- any one loss by Washington

is this scenario either or
or both need to happen?
Both. Washington is a half game ahead of us, due to the tie, and Tampa is ahead of us by a game. The tie breaker scenario with Tampa is too dicey to rely upon. So yes we need both of those to happen for the wild card, because if they win out, it won't matter what we do, unless Atlanta loses 2 of its next 3 and gives up the division.
 
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We get a wild card birth with:
- any two Tampa Bay losses
- any one loss by Washington

is this scenario either or
or both need to happen?

Both. Washington is a half game ahead of us, due to the tie, and Tampa is ahead of us by a game. The tie breaker scenario with Tampa is too dicey to rely upon. So yes we need both of those to happen for the wild card, because if they win out, it won't matter what we do, unless Atlanta loses 2 of its next 3 and gives up the division.

Don´t forget about the possibility of the Packers claiming the NFC North by winning out. Therefore Detroit has to lose one of their next two games at the Giants or Cowboys.
 

jsheim

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OK, if the Pack wins out there are an abundance of paths to the playoffs:

Keep in mind we hold the tiebreaker against both Giants (head-2-head) and
Tampa Bay (Strength of Victory). TB tiebreaker is obscure but I think I calculated correctly.

* Lions loss to NYG or DAL
* OR - TB loss to anyone (DAL,NO,CAR)
>> (remember NYG plays WSH at end of season, someone has to lose, so WC spot available)​
* OR -
- NYG beats WSH and NYG losses its other game (PHI).
- WSH beats NYG and WSH losses one of its two games (CAR or CHI).​

>> extra bonus...TB plays Dallas.

Again all predicated on GB winning out....but still amazing set of possibilities...in fact if GB wins out it will be a miracle for them to *NOT* get into the playoffs. Starts with Chicago this weekend.
 
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Un4GivN

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The odds, are less then .3% that the Packers would win out and not get a playoff spot. According to FPI on espn

"In the FPI simulations where it does run the table, Green Bay has a 99.7 percent chance of making the postseason. It would need to win out but lose the division and have quite a few wild-card scenarios not break in their favor in order to not make the playoffs in that scenario."

http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/...t-winning-out-just-in-time-or-a-week-too-late
 

jsheim

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For GBvTB at 10-6: I should mention the Two Club tiebreakers are below...the only chance of a three club is if Atlanta joins TB and GB at 10-6 but in that case Atlanta takes the south on a tiebreaker and we're left with a Two Club TB v GB.

Correction: another possible WC three club tie is NYG/GB/TB which GB wins in head-2-head.

Two Clubs
  • Head-to-head, if applicable.
  • Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  • Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
  • Strength of victory.
  • Strength of schedule.
  • Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  • ...
> head-2-head N/A GB did not play TB
> WLT% in conference would be equal if TB losses any of its games and GB wins out.
> WLT% common games does not apply as only 3 common opponents.
> Strength of Victory is the total WLT% of teams beat which GB wins regardless of the team TB would lose to...although if they beat Dallas and lose to NO or CAR, it might be close.
 
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Keep in mind we hold the tiebreaker against both Giants (head-2-head) and Tampa Bay (Strength of Victory). TB tiebreaker is obscure but I think I calculated correctly.

The strength of victory tie breaker could change until the end of the season though. It´s close to impossible to make an educated guess about it before week 17.

Correction: another possible WC three club tie is NYG/GB/TB which GB wins in head-2-head.

> head-2-head N/A GB did not play TB
> WLT% in conference would be equal if TB losses any of its games and GB wins out.
> WLT% common games does not apply as only 3 common opponents.
> Strength of Victory is the total WLT% of teams beat which GB wins regardless of the team TB would lose to...although if they beat Dallas and lose to NO or CAR, it might be close.

The head-to-head tie breaker is only applicable to break a tie between three teams if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others. The Packers would win a tie breaker over the Giants because of a better conference record though. The common games tie breaker applies to the Packers and Buccaneers as both teams will have played five games against four common opponents (Atlanta, Chicago, Seattle and Dallas) at the end of the season. Therefore if Tampa wins against the Cowboys they would win the tie breaker against the Packers based on the better record in those games.

Once again, the strength of victory tie breaker is difficult to predict as all teams the Packers and Buccaneers have beaten all play another three games as well.
 

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