Tracking playoff positioning

[Krabs]

Most posters have stated repeatedly that we don't expect the Packers to win the rest of their games. It's fun to talk about what would need to happen for them to make the playoffs if they did though.

My name is Krabs for a reason. I don't want anyone having fun.

 

[OldSchool101]

Overcoming insurmountable odds is half of what makes sports so interesting and there's a good chunk of you that would have cashed it in weeks ago for a freaking draft pick that you started talking about in May LOL.

You know what else helps teams besides high draft picks. Confidence. Figuring **** out, becoming a team, hard work. Grinding when it all seems lost. Give me a team with those traits any day.

I'd rather they win every game, overcome a lot of what has been ailing them all year. See Doubs and Watson ball out and look like studs who are finally coming around and belong here in the NFL. See an Oline without BakhT that is solid in run and pass and quits with the mistakes and penalties that plagued them earlier. See the defense play as a unit and not individuals and turn this thing around. Miss the playoffs and end up with pick in the 20's than watch them lose it for a ****ing draft pick. Losers play for draft picks.

I’m ok either way. Although I don’t think we have the choice to “lose games” it comes natural lately.

 

[thequick12]

I mean I'd like as high a draft pick as possible too...but when there's a chance at a chance Im all about trying to win

Crazier things have happened, if the Packers somehow get in the playoffs, do you think anyone is gonna wanna play em?

They have one of the best qbs, one of the best most explosive running backs, one of the best most explosive wrs and if they win out by then I'd assume a pretty darn good offensive line

 

[OldSchool101]

I mean I'd like as high a draft pick as possible too...but when there's a chance at a chance Im all about trying to win

Crazier things have happened, if the Packers somehow get in the playoffs, do you think anyone is gonna wanna play em?

They have one of the best qbs, one of the best most explosive running backs, one of the best most explosive wrs and if they win out by then I'd assume a pretty darn good offensive line

No one wants to play a team with nothing to lose and after being ridiculed all season. Especially one winning 5 in a row.

 

[AGreen2AJones]

I mean I'd like as high a draft pick as possible too...but when there's a chance at a chance Im all about trying to win

Crazier things have happened, if the Packers somehow get in the playoffs, do you think anyone is gonna wanna play em?

They have one of the best qbs, one of the best most explosive running backs, one of the best most explosive wrs and if they win out by then I'd assume a pretty darn good offensive line

Lol look at their playoff record. Please

 

[swhitset]

So you are implying that it doesn't matter?

Let me ask you, what would YOU trade to move from #11 to the #5 pick?

for the record… I wouldn’t trade much unless the specific circumstances targeted a very specific player that I thought was worth giving up another pick…. but in general… I wouldn‘t be predisposed to make any trade to go from 11 to 5. For example…. 2019 Draft #5 pick was Devin White… certainly a great player… but the Packers got Rashan Gary at 12… I’m fine with that considering the fact that they didn’t need to give anything up for it.

 

[swhitset]

All but this part:

GB Current 5-8 Projected 9-8
Wk15 Rams W
Wk16 Dolphins W
Wk17 Vikings W
Wk18 Lions W

Also, you forgot to include SF. They are not a lock to win their division. With the loss of Garapolo, I would say that it is very likely that the Seahawks wins the division and the 49'ers end up a WC.

Lol after today … I’d say that seems unlikely.

 

[AGreen2AJones]

All but this part:

GB Current 5-8 Projected 9-8
Wk15 Rams W
Wk16 Dolphins W
Wk17 Vikings W
Wk18 Lions W

Also, you forgot to include SF. They are not a lock to win their division. With the loss of Garapolo, I would say that it is very likely that the Seahawks wins the division and the 49'ers end up a WC.

Lmao. 9ers might be the best team in football with that D

 

[AGreen2AJones]

Packers got the two big results they needed today. Seahawks and Giants losses.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Yesterday's result, especially the Seahawks losing to the Panthers, made it much more probable that the Packers would end up making the playoffd at 9-8.

Unfortunately I still don't believe they're capable of winning their remaining games though.

 

[milani]

Lmao. 9ers might be the best team in football with that D

Back to the old adage that defense wins championships.

 

[MadCat]

Back to the old adage that defense wins championships.

And probably applies even moreso this season since there are some pretty weak teams out there that will be making the playoffs.

 

[Krabs]

I do think the Packers have a pretty good chance at beating the Rams. That is probably about it. They seem to never play well going on the road in the south. I don't think they beat the Dolphins. Then I just think MN and DET are better than the Packers and both have reasons to play. MN to wrap up a home playoff game and the Lions just to make the playoffs. We will see where it is at when we play the Lions. Maybe they are in and don't have anything to play for. Regardless, I think they have one more win in them and then its over.

 

[Mondio]

I see anywhere from zero to 4 more wins in this teams future
Rams and Detroit they can beat with their up and down nature. It will take better than we've seen consistently to get wins against MN and Miami.

 

[PackerDNA]

We pretty much got what we needed yesterday. We need the 49ers to come up big against Seattle Thursday but they're pretty banged up. No Deebo.

 

[Mondio]

We pretty much got what we needed yesterday. We need the 49ers to come up big against Seattle Thursday but they're pretty banged up. No Deebo.

I watched most of the first half, that injury looked like it could be bad. big linebacker hanging of his back and looked like it could have been any combination of an ankle or a couple knee injuries the way he got twisted around in that position. Looked bad to me

 

[Magooch]

Per FiveThirtyEight yesterday's results moved us from a 4% chance to make playoffs all the way up to.... 6%.

Obviously that is not a lot BUT both things we needed to have happen DID happen.

You may recall as it's been said...we needed 2/3 of the following to happen:
1. Giants lose four of their remaining five
2. Commanders lose three of their remaining four
3. Seahawks lose three of their remaining five

Now of course Commanders were on bye but it was a step in the right direction for the others.
With a loss for both the Giants and Seahawks we now "just" need two out of three of these to happen:
1. Giants lose three of their remaining four
2. Commanders lose three of their remaining four
3. Seahawks lose two of their remaining four

In theory all three could happen but it would be difficult. The Giants and Commanders play this upcoming week. Practically speaking then we would want to see:

1. Commanders beat the Giants but lose to all of 49ers, Browns, and Cowboys
or 2. Giants beat the Commanders but lose to all of Vikings, Colts, Eagles

Most likely one of those paired with Seattle losing at least two games against 49ers, Chiefs, Jets, or Rams.

And of course it is all contingent on us winning out too, naturally. FWIW FiveThirtyEight also puts us at roughly 36% to make playoffs if we win out, not accounting for anyone else's results. So we would still have a bit of an uphill battle.

 

[pacmaniac]

The Lions are also ahead of us and they are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now.

 

[Magooch]

Per FiveThirtyEight yesterday's results moved us from a 4% chance to make playoffs all the way up to.... 6%.

Obviously that is not a lot BUT both things we needed to have happen DID happen.

You may recall as it's been said...we needed 2/3 of the following to happen:
1. Giants lose four of their remaining five
2. Commanders lose three of their remaining four
3. Seahawks lose three of their remaining five

Now of course Commanders were on bye but it was a step in the right direction for the others.
With a loss for both the Giants and Seahawks we now "just" need two out of three of these to happen:
1. Giants lose three of their remaining four
2. Commanders lose three of their remaining four
3. Seahawks lose two of their remaining four

In theory all three could happen but it would be difficult. The Giants and Commanders play this upcoming week. Practically speaking then we would want to see:

1. Commanders beat the Giants but lose to all of 49ers, Browns, and Cowboys
or 2. Giants beat the Commanders but lose to all of Vikings, Colts, Eagles

Most likely one of those paired with Seattle losing at least two games against 49ers, Chiefs, Jets, or Rams.

And of course it is all contingent on us winning out too, naturally. FWIW FiveThirtyEight also puts us at roughly 36% to make playoffs if we win out, not accounting for anyone else's results. So we would still have a bit of an uphill battle.

With this in mind here is how FiveThirtyEight's updated game-by-game probabilities play out for each of these teams.

Seahawks vs 49ers: Pick 'em, slight nod to 49ers at 51-49%
Seahawks vs Chiefs: Chiefs by 10.5, 82-18%
Seahawks vs Jets: Seahawks by 2.5, 59-41%
Seahawks vs Rams: Seahawks by 3, 61-39%

In theory this gives us the two Seattle losses we would need and sees them finish at 9-8.

Giants vs Commanders: Commanders by 5.5, 69-31%
Giants vs Vikings: Vikings by 7, 74-26%
Giants vs Colts: Giants by 1.5, 55-45%
Giants vs Eagles: Eagles by 12, 85-15%

Again in theory this would see the Giants lose three of their remaining four as needed and this coupled with the projected Seattle finish would in theory be enough to put us in provided we win out. This would have the Giants finish 8-8-1 I think?

Commanders vs Giants: Commanders by 5.5, 69-31%
Commanders vs 49ers: 49ers by 3.5, 62-38%
Commanders vs Browns: Commanders by 1, 54-46%
Commanders vs Cowboys: Cowboys by 5.5, 69-31%

Here we would want/need to see the Browns "upset" the Commanders, but if the Giants/Seahawks games play out as above then I guess it doesn't matter. They would finish ahead of us at 9-7-1.

And for us:
Packers vs Rams: Packers by 8, 74-26%
Packers vs Dolphins: Dolphins by 4.5, 65-35%
Packers vs Vikings: Vikings by 1.5, 56-44%
Packers vs Lions: Packers by 1, 53-47%

And of course here is the kicker. We would need to win both the games we are favored in (and barely favored against Detroit tbh) as well as "upsets" against the Vikings and Dolphins to have a chance. While that is the part where "we control our destiny" tbh it seems more likely to me that the Seattle/New York/Washington results play out in our favor as needed than it does that we win out, so it perhaps won't matter anyways.

 

[Magooch]

The Lions are also ahead of us and they are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now.

The Lions would make it a bit complicated. As has been said it is all contingent on us winning out. Since we finish the season playing against the Lions, provided we win our others this means that best-case scenario (for them) we would finish with the same record of 9-8.

Tiebreakers are then:
1. Head-to-head - we would be split with 1W 1L each
2. Win/Loss/Tie percentage in division - assuming we both win out by my count we would both finish with 4W, 2L in division (Lions W vs Packers, Bears, Bears, Vikings and L vs Vikings, Packers; Packers W vs Bears, Bears, Vikings, Lions and L vs Vikings, Lions)
3. W/L/T in common games - believe we would both finish 3W 5L
4. W/L/T in conference - both 7W 5L

And then next two would be strength of victory in all games and strength of schedule in all games. Right now from what I can tell it looks like the Lions are marginally ahead in both (.487 vs .438 SOV, .601 vs .565 SOS) but I'm not sure at the moment how that would all shake out when it's all said and done. At least I think those counts are right...

 

[OldSchool101]

I do think the Packers have a pretty good chance at beating the Rams. That is probably about it. They seem to never play well going on the road in the south. I don't think they beat the Dolphins. Then I just think MN and DET are better than the Packers and both have reasons to play. MN to wrap up a home playoff game and the Lions just to make the playoffs. We will see where it is at when we play the Lions. Maybe they are in and don't have anything to play for. Regardless, I think they have one more win in them and then its over.

This next part is purely opinion. I see the Vikings in slight regression and the Packers and Lions on a slight incline going down the stretch.

I said over a month ago the Lions and Washington would cause problems. The Lions current .601 SOS (schedule) in the 2022 season is the toughest schedule in the NFL. To put their 2022 opponent’s strength into perspective? No team in over 20 seasons have had a tougher SOS than the 2022 Lions.
GB is an honorable mention at a very difficult .565 level SOS (but more expected for a team off a 13 Win season). That good enough for #2 most difficult schedule this season behind Detroit.

There’s also arguably a very notable disadvantage concerning the Vikings and Detroit. They are 2 Dome teams and coming to Lambeau in January, which is not exactly an advantage for them. These conditions are where success in the shorter game becomes increasingly a key factor. The Packers RB combo along with the speed in Jet sweeps and motion plays all pose serious problems the colder and slicker it gets. GB goes into these contests as the only OL in the top 5 in the North AND the only NFC North team in the top 10 in yards per carry (4.9)

On the flip side, The Lions have an adequate Rushing attack (#15 yds/carry) and we can’t seem to defend the Run consistently. Although it’s my belief that we will almost be forced to play Run more Defensively. Unless Barry wants to be sent packing before seasons end, He’d best lose these 6 man boxes and 3 man rushes that have crippled us.

 

[milani]

This next part is purely opinion. I see the Vikings in slight regression and the Packers and Lions on a slight incline going down the stretch.

I said over a month ago the Lions and Washington would cause problems. The Lions current .601 SOS (schedule) in the 2022 season is the toughest schedule in the NFL. To put their 2022 opponent’s strength into perspective? No team in over 20 seasons have had a tougher SOS than the 2022 Lions.
GB is an honorable mention at a very difficult .565 level SOS (but more expected for a team off a 13 Win season). That good enough for #2 most difficult schedule this season behind Detroit.

There’s also arguably a very notable disadvantage concerning the Vikings and Detroit. They are 2 Dome teams and coming to Lambeau in January, which is not exactly an advantage for them. These conditions are where success in the shorter game becomes increasingly a key factor. The Packers RB combo along with the speed in Jet sweeps and motion plays all pose serious problems the colder and slicker it gets. GB goes into these contests as the only OL in the top 5 in the North AND the only NFC North team in the top 10 in yards per carry (4.9)

On the flip side, The Lions have an adequate Rushing attack (#15 yds/carry) and we can’t seem to defend the Run consistently. Although it’s my belief that we will almost be forced to play Run more Defensively. Unless Barry wants to fly home early for Christmas? He’d best lose these 6 man boxes and 3 man rushes that have crippled us.

The Vikings are chasing Philly and want to at least hold on to #2 from SF who is coming on strong. So they may have to play out. The Lions could be in a necessary win situation depending on Seattle, Wash, and NY. They may be forced to run more considering it is January. But then we do not stop the run very often in any weather. A cold, icy, windy day may keep Jefferson running 20 yard routes instead of 40.

 

[OldSchool101]

The Vikings are chasing Philly and want to at least hold on to #2 from SF who is coming on strong. So they may have to play out. The Lions could be in a necessary win situation depending on Seattle, Wash, and NY. They may be forced to run more considering it is January. But then we do not stop the run very often in any weather. A cold, icy, windy day may keep Jefferson running 20 yard routes instead of 40.

Something that needs to be addressed is ball security. Especially in GB, we have been haunted by turnovers that very arguably cost us not to advance to a SB.
Ball security in cold weather really started around the Bostick curse. Since Then, Brandon’s ghost has been walking the Hallowed Halls at 1265 Lombardi.
It’s so bad that it’s evident we don’t specifically address ball security importance in cold weather. Amari, Jones, Marcedes, Winfree, the list goes on and on and on and we never quite grasp the risk assessment.

I’m almost positive we’d try to field a Punt or Kick inside the 10 yard line in adverse condition. We’ll catch a ball on a swing pass and 1 arm it on the inside arm and inviting a defender or ST to ruin the entire game. Most Other opponents DC’s have figured out it’s easier to loose a ball in cold cold weather. What you you don’t address in a very proactive and deliberate way in practice? you fully invite during live games and it’s very evident we just don’t believe it’s an issue or we wouldn’t keep making the same mistake repeatedly. On Punts in the cold. We should have 2 Returners playing halves. The alternate guy not returning should be supporting the returner in case of a loose ball or a eliminating the opposing gunner or first man in the equation. There should never be a PR on an island in inclement weather.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The Lions could be in a necessary win situation depending on Seattle, Wash, and NY.

The Lions have a pretty big leg up on the Packers IMO and in order to get into the playoffs, they need the same things to happen that the Packers do, in regards to Seattle, Wash and NY. Besides already being 1 game ahead of the Packers, the Lions won the first meeting. They have 3 of 4 games left with below average teams (Panthers, Bears, Packers). If the Lions beat the Jets on Sunday, they put themselves in a much better position to chase down a playoff spot. Even if the Lions lose and the Packers win, the Lions will still be ahead of the Packers, with a much easier final 3 games.

 

[Pkrjones]

The Lions have a pretty big leg up on the Packers IMO and in order to get into the playoffs, they need the same things to happen that the Packers do, in regards to Seattle, Wash and NY. Besides already being 1 game ahead of the Packers, the Lions won the first meeting. They have 3 of 4 games left with below average teams (Panthers, Bears, Packers). If the Lions beat the Jets on Sunday, they put themselves in a much better position to chase down a playoff spot. Even if the Lions lose and the Packers win, the Lions will still be ahead of the Packers, with a much easier final 3 games.

All true...but can we count on the Lions being the Lions & inexplicably doing Lions things to lose more games?