Tracking playoff positioning

PackAttack12

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Well I proclaimed the season was over when the Packers were down 28-14 in the 4th quarter. I now proclaim the season anything BUT over :ninja:

From looking at the math, the Packers can only afford to lose 1 more conference game, and 2 more games overall to have a realistic shot at the playoffs. 3 losses shuts the door on any realistic possibility.

Here’s the Packers remaining schedule:

Titans
at Eagles
at Bears
BYE
Rams
at Dolphins
Vikings
Lions

If the Packers play to capability, there’s no reason to lose to the Titans, Bears, Rams, and Lions. The Packers are either better than those teams, or have a decided home field advantage. That gets you to 8 wins.

Obviously the toughest ones would be at Eagles, at Dolphins, and Vikings at home. The Packers get 10 days to get ready for Philly. At Dolphins is going to be a wildly tough challenge down in Miami. That’ll be tough to win. And Vikings at home will be tough, but it’s against Cousins in an afternoon time slot. I’ll take my chances.

Games to look out for this week:

Bears at Falcons
(Even though I think both teams are cooked, wouldn’t hurt for the bears to take the Falcons to 4-7)

Commanders at Texans
(Now would be the time for the Texans to do one single thing productive)

Eagles at Colts
(Hoping the honeymoon period for Jeff Saturday can last another game as he makes his home debut)

Rams at Saints
(not really though. They’re both cooked)

Lions at Giants
(Go lions)

Cowboys at Vikings
(Need to pull for Minnesota. There’s a slightly better shot of having a report of a snow ball fight breaking out in hell than the Packers competing to win the North. You never know if that head to head victory over the Cowboys could be a deciding factor)

49ers at Cardinals
(49ers scare me the most on teams competing for a spot. Need a cardinals win)
 
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real time opponents win% SOS (combined strength)

PHILLY .453
NYG .401
DAL .506
WASH .569

MN .494
GB .581
DET .600

CHI .543

TB .474

ATL .432
CAR .453
NO .484

SEA .457

SF .435
ARI .521
LAR .488

MIA .527
NYJ .506

BUF .602
NE .467

KC .476
LAC .387
DEN .463
LVR .434

BAL .440

CIN .482
CLE .524

PIT .571

TEN .481
IND .441
JAX .500
HOU .494

What this begins to do for me is starts to paint a picture of which teams are slightly weaker or stronger than their records. I also would not underestimate Detroit, they are just good enough to create misery for whomever they play. I would not at all be surprised if they give the overrated Giants some fits, as the Giants have had a relative cakewalk.
-Buffalo and MN and Miami are legit
-GBP have had the 3rd toughest schedule in the league to date
 
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McKnowledge

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Cowboys at Vikings
(Need to pull for Minnesota. There’s a slightly better shot of having a report of a snow ball fight breaking out in hell than the Packers competing to win the North. You never know if that head to head victory over the Cowboys could be a deciding factor)

I'm also rooting for Minnesota.

Looks like the North belongs to the Vikings this year.

I hope they get the No.2 seed in the playoffs as well...

Because if the Packers grab the last Wildcard (#3), I can see them beating Minnesota in the first round.

No expectations might be best for the Green and Gold.
 

Dantés

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Here’s your current top 10 in terms of PO probability and their chances to get in per fivethirtyeight.

1. Eagles, 99%
2. Vikings, 99%
3. Cowboys, 93%
4. Bucs, 83%
5. 49ers, 81%
6. Seahawks, 76%
7. Giants, 76%
8. Commanders, 36%
9. Falcons, 14%
10. Packers, 12%

There’s a strong likelihood that the Eagles and Vikings are division winners. The 49ers and Seahawks will compete in the West, while the Falcons and Bucs will compete in the South.

I think it ends up being the Bucs and 49ers.

That would leave the Cowboys (6-3), the Giants (7-2), and the Seahawks (6-4). The Packers would need to catch one of them.

They are 2, 2.5, and 3.5 games back respectively.

The Seahawks have the 7th easiest remaining SOS. The Giants and Cowboys have the 1st and 6th hardest, respectively. So it’s not absurd that one of them collapses.

Unfortunately, the Packers have the 5th hardest remaining SOS. So they have to make up ground while also facing a tough slate.
 

captainWIMM

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Games to look out for this week:

Eagles at Colts
(Hoping the honeymoon period for Jeff Saturday can last another game as he makes his home debut)

The Packers won't catch the Eagles, therefore I don't care how they end up playing on Sunday.
 
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The Seahawks have the 7th easiest remaining SOS. The Giants and Cowboys have the 1st and 6th hardest, respectively. So it’s not absurd that one of them collapses.
My guess is going to be The Giants faulter. Unless they improve it’s my opinion they are relative 6-2 imposters. I won’t be surprised if Detroit gives them problems. They are fortunate to be playing at home this week or I’d have them as 1 point underdogs at Detroit.
1. Their margin of victory has been slim until now.
2. They have had the 2nd easiest Schedule leaguewide to date.
3. They have the hardest schedule leaguewide going forward (as of now)
 
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captainWIMM

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Probably not, but it wouldn’t hurt anything.

True, I wouldn't mind the Eagles losing another one as well.

My guess is going to be The Giants faulter. Unless they improve it’s my opinion they are relative 6-2 imposters. I won’t be surprised if Detroit gives them problems. They are fortunate to be playing at home this week or I’d have them as 1 point underdogs at Detroit.
1. Their margin of victory has been slim until now.
2. They have had the 2nd easiest Schedule leaguewide to date.
3. They have the hardest schedule leaguewide going forward (as of now)

It will be awfully tough for the Packers to move past the Giants (they're actually 7-2 at this point) as they're currently 3.5 games behind them and New York holding the tie breaker over them based on their win in London. Especially considering they have some games left on their schedule they could definitely end up winning against the Lions, the Commanders (twice) and the Colts.
 
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PackAttack12

PackAttack12

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True, I wouldn't mind the Eagles losing another one as well.
Just now thought about a potential strength of victory tie breaker. In such case, perhaps it would be better for Philly to win every remaining game, except for week 12 of course!
 

Pkrjones

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So then in your opinion when does love get playing time?
After a pummeling in Philly Love should start the rest of the season. GB needs to see if he's an NFL starter or whether they need to spend a #1 on a QB in April. No use picking up his 5th year if Love isn't "the guy" for the next decade. If AR wanted to go out on top he missed his chance. He still has "it" but the team isn't win-ready anymore so the front office needs to plan the roster & cap for the next few years & Love (whether he stays or goes) is a big part of that planning.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Maybe change the thread title to "tracking positioning for a top 5 draft pick"?

I doubt the Packers are mathematically eliminated, but I don't see it happening, so now this season is about the future. How should the Packers approach their final 6 games?

-Coaching changes will happen, guessing both the OC and DC are all but gone. I never really understood the promotion of Stenavich to the OC and this season is all I need to see. Good OL guy, but not a play caller.

- Aaron Rodgers future? Is he retiring, will he try to once again force a trade out of GB or do the Packers not know and won't know until Summer? Whatever the case, its time to give Love 2 quarts minimum per game of playing time. I don't think that is "tanking" games, that is seeing what Love has in a very critical year of his future as a Packer.

- Soon to become Free Agents? If I remember correctly, there are going to be something close to 16 players that could become free agents in 2023. Start thinking who they will or won't try to resign and if they are going to be moving on, less playing time for them, let the backups that will be on the team in 2023 start playing more. One example, Sammy Watkins. He has been worse than I think anyone expected, cut him or bench him, but bring back Winfree and get him and Toure some reps.

Don't strip the offense or defense down to nothing, but start using these 6 games to build for the future. Sure wins are nice, but I would gladly sacrifice loses this year, if they mean a better team next year.
 

captainWIMM

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After a pummeling in Philly Love should start the rest of the season. GB needs to see if he's an NFL starter or whether they need to spend a #1 on a QB in April. No use picking up his 5th year if Love isn't "the guy" for the next decade. If AR wanted to go out on top he missed his chance. He still has "it" but the team isn't win-ready anymore so the front office needs to plan the roster & cap for the next few years & Love (whether he stays or goes) is a big part of that planning.

I'm in favor of starting Love once the Packers are eliminated from playoff contention but it sends the wrong message doing it earlier.

I don't think the team is that far away from being one capable of contending for a Super Bowl. They need to make a change at defensive coordinator and add talent at both wide receiver and tight end.

That might be possible by using their first rounder on Michael Mayer and sign a veteran at WR.

Whatever the case, its time to give Love 2 quarts minimum per game of playing time. I don't think that is "tanking" games, that is seeing what Love has in a very critical year of his future as a Packer.

As you mentioned above, the Packers aren't eliminated from the playoffs at this point, therefore there's no reason to give up on the season by playing Love.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think there's a realistic chance of them making a run either but I definitely don't want them to give up on the season.
 

Team Ronny

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Maybe change the thread title to "tracking positioning for a top 5 draft pick"?

I doubt the Packers are mathematically eliminated, but I don't see it happening, so now this season is about the future. How should the Packers approach their final 6 games?

-Coaching changes will happen, guessing both the OC and DC are all but gone. I never really understood the promotion of Stenavich to the OC and this season is all I need to see. Good OL guy, but not a play caller.

- Aaron Rodgers future? Is he retiring, will he try to once again force a trade out of GB or do the Packers not know and won't know until Summer? Whatever the case, its time to give Love 2 quarts minimum per game of playing time. I don't think that is "tanking" games, that is seeing what Love has in a very critical year of his future as a Packer.

- Soon to become Free Agents? If I remember correctly, there are going to be something close to 16 players that could become free agents in 2023. Start thinking who they will or won't try to resign and if they are going to be moving on, less playing time for them, let the backups that will be on the team in 2023 start playing more. One example, Sammy Watkins. He has been worse than I think anyone expected, cut him or bench him, but bring back Winfree and get him and Toure some reps.

Don't strip the offense or defense down to nothing, but start using these 6 games to build for the future. Sure wins are nice, but I would gladly sacrifice loses this year, if they mean a better team next year.
Is Stenovich truly calling the plays though? I'm guessing same role as Hackett..get team prepared to play and Lafleur calls all the plays in games.
 

Team Ronny

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Maybe change the thread title to "tracking positioning for a top 5 draft pick"?

I doubt the Packers are mathematically eliminated, but I don't see it happening, so now this season is about the future. How should the Packers approach their final 6 games?

-Coaching changes will happen, guessing both the OC and DC are all but gone. I never really understood the promotion of Stenavich to the OC and this season is all I need to see. Good OL guy, but not a play caller.

- Aaron Rodgers future? Is he retiring, will he try to once again force a trade out of GB or do the Packers not know and won't know until Summer? Whatever the case, its time to give Love 2 quarts minimum per game of playing time. I don't think that is "tanking" games, that is seeing what Love has in a very critical year of his future as a Packer.

- Soon to become Free Agents? If I remember correctly, there are going to be something close to 16 players that could become free agents in 2023. Start thinking who they will or won't try to resign and if they are going to be moving on, less playing time for them, let the backups that will be on the team in 2023 start playing more. One example, Sammy Watkins. He has been worse than I think anyone expected, cut him or bench him, but bring back Winfree and get him and Toure some reps.

Don't strip the offense or defense down to nothing, but start using these 6 games to build for the future. Sure wins are nice, but I would gladly sacrifice loses this year, if they mean a better team next year.
Maybe Rodgers and Packers could come to a mutual agreement on pay if he retires.
 

rmontro

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I'm in favor of starting Love once the Packers are eliminated from playoff contention but it sends the wrong message doing it earlier.
Agree with that, especially since this is the run the table and R-E-L-A-X team.
Well, the name is the same, anyway.
 

captainWIMM

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Is Stenovich truly calling the plays though? I'm guessing same role as Hackett..get team prepared to play and Lafleur calls all the plays in games.

You're right that MLF is calling the plays but Stenavich is definitely heavily involved in drawing them up. Therefore he deserves part of the blame as well.

Maybe Rodgers and Packers could come to a mutual agreement on pay if he retires.

There would be no need for it. Rodgers would keep the signing bonus he received this past offseason but the Packers wouldn't owe him any more money moving forward.
 

milani

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Well I proclaimed the season was over when the Packers were down 28-14 in the 4th quarter. I now proclaim the season anything BUT over :ninja:

From looking at the math, the Packers can only afford to lose 1 more conference game, and 2 more games overall to have a realistic shot at the playoffs. 3 losses shuts the door on any realistic possibility.

Here’s the Packers remaining schedule:

Titans
at Eagles
at Bears
BYE
Rams
at Dolphins
Vikings
Lions

If the Packers play to capability, there’s no reason to lose to the Titans, Bears, Rams, and Lions. The Packers are either better than those teams, or have a decided home field advantage. That gets you to 8 wins.

Obviously the toughest ones would be at Eagles, at Dolphins, and Vikings at home. The Packers get 10 days to get ready for Philly. At Dolphins is going to be a wildly tough challenge down in Miami. That’ll be tough to win. And Vikings at home will be tough, but it’s against Cousins in an afternoon time slot. I’ll take my chances.

Games to look out for this week:

Bears at Falcons
(Even though I think both teams are cooked, wouldn’t hurt for the bears to take the Falcons to 4-7)

Commanders at Texans
(Now would be the time for the Texans to do one single thing productive)

Eagles at Colts
(Hoping the honeymoon period for Jeff Saturday can last another game as he makes his home debut)

Rams at Saints
(not really though. They’re both cooked)

Lions at Giants
(Go lions)

Cowboys at Vikings
(Need to pull for Minnesota. There’s a slightly better shot of having a report of a snow ball fight breaking out in hell than the Packers competing to win the North. You never know if that head to head victory over the Cowboys could be a deciding factor)

49ers at Cardinals
(49ers scare me the most on teams competing for a spot. Need a cardinals win)
I do not like to think about it but truthfully speaking 2022 is toast. The Bears and Lions games will be epic battles. Battles that we can easily lose as well.
 

longtimefan

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Well I proclaimed the season was over when the Packers were down 28-14 in the 4th quarter. I now proclaim the season anything BUT over :ninja:

From looking at the math, the Packers can only afford to lose 1 more conference game, and 2 more games overall to have a realistic shot at the playoffs. 3 losses shuts the door on any realistic possibility.

Here’s the Packers remaining schedule:

Titans
at Eagles
at Bears
BYE
Rams
at Dolphins
Vikings
Lions

If the Packers play to capability, there’s no reason to lose to the Titans, Bears, Rams, and Lions. The Packers are either better than those teams, or have a decided home field advantage. That gets you to 8 wins.

Obviously the toughest ones would be at Eagles, at Dolphins, and Vikings at home. The Packers get 10 days to get ready for Philly. At Dolphins is going to be a wildly tough challenge down in Miami. That’ll be tough to win. And Vikings at home will be tough, but it’s against Cousins in an afternoon time slot. I’ll take my chances.

Games to look out for this week:

Bears at Falcons
(Even though I think both teams are cooked, wouldn’t hurt for the bears to take the Falcons to 4-7)

Commanders at Texans
(Now would be the time for the Texans to do one single thing productive)

Eagles at Colts
(Hoping the honeymoon period for Jeff Saturday can last another game as he makes his home debut)

Rams at Saints
(not really though. They’re both cooked)

Lions at Giants
(Go lions)

Cowboys at Vikings
(Need to pull for Minnesota. There’s a slightly better shot of having a report of a snow ball fight breaking out in hell than the Packers competing to win the North. You never know if that head to head victory over the Cowboys could be a deciding factor)

49ers at Cardinals
(49ers scare me the most on teams competing for a spot. Need a cardinals win)

A 4 n 7 team and playoffs?

Unless they show fight all game vs Eagles they shouldnt be mentioned any more for playoffs
 

Team Ronny

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You're right that MLF is calling the plays but Stenavich is definitely heavily involved in drawing them up. Therefore he deserves part of the blame as well.



There would be no need for it. Rodgers would keep the signing bonus he received this past offseason but the Packers wouldn't owe him any more money moving forward.
Thanks, wasn't sure as you hear so many conflicting opinions on what it would cost if he retires vs cutting/ trading him.
 

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