The omnibus "everything but the kitchen sink" (bathroom/pantry/butler sinks OK) thread

[sschind]

The Packers have an 82% chance of making the playoffs by winning out. Those odds actually increase to 83% if the Vikings win out and increase to 85% if the Bears win out.

If the Vikings AND the Bears win out all the way until their week 17 matchup, regardless of the outcome of that game, the Packers have a 71% chance of making the playoffs.

The thought of starting Kizer shouldn't even enter the minds of anyone associated with the Packers until (if) they lose another game.

Very little at this point is certain. What we do know though is that the Saints and Rams will win their respective divisions. And we also know that we don't need to concern ourselves with teams that have 7 losses or more, given that winning out gives us just 6 losses.

So teams that have no barring on the Packers:

Saints
Rams

Giants
Lions
Falcons
Bucs
Cardinals
49ers

That leaves the following teams:

Cowboys (6-5), Redskins (6-5), Eagles (5-6) (one of these teams have to win the division)
Panthers (6-5)
Seahawks (6-5)
Bears (8-3), Vikings (6-4-1) (lets assume one of these teams win the division)

So assuming we're looking at a wild card berth, we are essentially competing with 5 teams for 2 spots since out of that above list, two of those teams have to win the division.

The Cowboys to me are the favorite for the division right now
The Redskins could self destruct without Alex Smith.
The Eagles have been a mess all year and have a brutal schedule
The Panthers have lost three in a row and still play the Saints twice
The Seahawks have to play the Chiefs, albeit at home, otherwise fairly easy schedule
- (they do however play the Vikings, which is a guaranteed loss for one of those teams, assuming no tie)
The Bears are the favorite for the division right now
The Vikings are at the Patriots and at the Seahawks (guaranteed loss for one team), along with two division games to finish out. A 2-3 finish is more than just a small possibility given that schedule, which would put the Packers ahead of them.

This puppy is far from over and it's also far more likely than not that the Packers make the playoffs if they win out.

All isn't lost just yet. Catching fire at the right time could be dangerous.

I have a 100% chance of becoming a millionaire if I pick every number in the lottery but what are my odds of picking every number in the lottery?

Yeah, if they win out they have an 82% chance of making the playoffs but what are the odds they win out. Nowhere close to 82% I'm afraid. I thought I had posted something along the lines of what you did on what 4 of 5 things needing to happen for the Packers to make it IF they win out but I can't find it. It essentially outlined the help the Packers needed. The Eagles needed to lose 1 of their 5 remaining games. The Seahawks, Redskins and Panthers need to lose 2 and the vikings need to lose 3. If 4 of those 5 things happen and the Packers win out the Packers will make the playoffs. My conclusion was that I feel very confident that the Packers will get all the help they need. I just feel much less confident that he Packers will hold up their end.

 

[PackAttack12]

I have a 100% chance of becoming a millionaire if I pick every number in the lottery but what are my odds of picking every number in the lottery?

The only hope of the Packers making the playoffs is to win out. Regardless of how possible you think it is or isn't, that's the hand the Packers have dealt themselves and if we're going to have any realistic discussions of making the playoffs, we have to operate under the premise that the Packers will win out.

 

[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

If the Packers are mathematically eliminated (hate the use that term) sit Arod and play people to evaluate if it’s worth another contract or staying on this team...should be easy.

I totality 100% agree.

If we lose Sunday, treat the remaining season like preseason, and if MM is going to get fired, do that to and replace him with a in house coach temporarily
until they decide on the HC position after the season.

But we all know for respect to MM, they wouldn't do that.
I say start the 2019-2020 planning season early, what can we lose.

 

[sschind]

The only hope of the Packers making the playoffs is to win out. Regardless of how possible you think it is or isn't, that's the hand the Packers have dealt themselves and if we're going to have any realistic discussions of making the playoffs, we have to operate under the premise that the Packers will win out.

So operating on an unrealistic premise makes for a more realistic discussion? IMO the most realistic discussion about the Packers making the playoffs is assuming they are not going to and going from there.

Don't get me wrong. I hope we do win out and if we do I think the chances are excellent that we make it considering the help we need. I just don't think it is very realistic to expect this team to win out. Hope yes, by all means. Expect sorry, I'm not buying it.

 

[PackAttack12]

So operating on an unrealistic premise makes for a more realistic discussion? IMO the most realistic discussion about the Packers making the playoffs is assuming they are not going to and going from there.

Don't get me wrong. I hope we do win out and if we do I think the chances are excellent that we make it considering the help we need. I just don't think it is very realistic to expect this team to win out. Hope yes, by all means. Expect sorry, I'm not buying it.

If you want to say that it's more likely the Packers don't win out than do, then I actually agree with you. It's difficult to win 5 games in a row in the NFL regardless of who you are playing. But for the purposes of discussing playoff scenarios, they all begin and end with the Packers winning out.

Until they lose another game, I'm going to look at the scenarios that could play out with the other teams the Packers are competing with to give them the best opportunity to get a ticket.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

So operating on an unrealistic premise makes for a more realistic discussion? IMO the most realistic discussion about the Packers making the playoffs is assuming they are not going to and going from there.

Don't get me wrong. I hope we do win out and if we do I think the chances are excellent that we make it considering the help we need. I just don't think it is very realistic to expect this team to win out. Hope yes, by all means. Expect sorry, I'm not buying it.

Agreed and in that discussion, rabid fans shouldn't be offended with people talking about "what is best for the Packers moving forward if and when they are eliminated, i.e. the Big Picture" Sure, I like to see Packer victories, but I would sacrifice "meaningless wins" (yes, that will be challenged), if they aren't beneficial to next season and beyond.

 

[BrokenArrow]

The math agrees we are done.
Add it up and you will see that we are.

********. If we win out our chances of getting in currently sit around 75%. And you don't win out if you don't play. PLAY ON!

 

[swhitset]

Commenting on both of your comments :

I too like buttons, however I don't feel the need to rate every post I see, especially when its a repeat of something I have either rated or has been said numerous times. I too like the ability to say "informative" "Agree" "winner", etc when it doesn't require anything but that. The Red X to me is something a bit "special" and I save giving them when someone is just not being factual or their "opinion" is just way off base (IMO). I also follow it up with why I "X'd" it.

As far as the rest of the season and who plays, that obviously depends on when the Packers are officially eliminated as well as what the plans are with the team after this season. If the Packers get eliminated, I say you start playing guys with an eye for the future. Only reason I play Rodgers for a small part of the time would be to give him what appears to be needed work with Graham and the Rookie WR's. But I pull veteran starters that will be with the team next season. Guys I don't bother playing are ones that the Packers are pretty sure won't be back in Green Bay (Matthews, Cobb, Lewis, etc.). Treat whatever games are left as getting ready for 2019 and for god sakes, don't expose Rodgers to a big injury.

But if MM is on his way out or thinks he might be, good luck getting him to not go all in on every game.

Your last paragraph is a point I think a lot have missed.

 

[Dblbogey]

Not yet, we still have a 3% chance at making the playoffs.

Hillary had 94% chance. Poop happens. I'm in until they lose another game, then pulling for a better draft pick.

 

[sschind]

Agreed and in that discussion, rabid fans shouldn't be offended with people talking about "what is best for the Packers moving forward if and when they are eliminated, i.e. the Big Picture" Sure, I like to see Packer victories, but I would sacrifice "meaningless wins" (yes, that will be challenged), if they aren't beneficial to next season and beyond.

Years ago I used to think those who wanted the team to lose so they could get a higher draft pick as not "true" fans. After a time I came to realize that everyone wants what is best for the team and not everyone thinks along the same lines as far as what is best. I don't agree with it but I understand it. It's why I have come to detest posts that accuse anyone of not being a true fan. IMO there is no such thing as a true fan, we are all just fans.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

IMO there is no such thing as a true fan, we are all just fans.

I don't know, this guy looks like a true fan!

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[longtimefan]

But if MM is on his way out or thinks he might be, good luck getting him to not go all in on every game.

What if. . Say... Jan of 2018...he was told . you get the team to perform well or your gone?

He would be coaching for his life from day 1?

 

[swhitset]

What if. . Say... Jan of 2018...he was told . you get the team to perform well or your gone?

He would be coaching for his life from day 1?

Not certain what point you are making.... But The point is ... it’s not Jan 2018 and the Packers have not performed well. Some have suggested that perhaps instead of playing with the intention of winning once we are eliminated, that the Packers should look to the future... and try out other players etc... Poker’s point is that if Mcarthy knows he is going to get fired... he certainly would not be on board with giving up this year to help evaluate for next year for a team he will not be a part of. McCarthy would continue to make decisions that would possibly save his job.

 

[longtimefan]

Not certain what point you are making.... But The point is ... it’s not Jan 2018 and the Packers have not performed well. Some have suggested that perhaps instead of playing with the intention of winning once we are eliminated, that the Packers should look to the future... and try out other players etc... Poker’s point is that if Mcarthy knows he is going to get fired... he certainly would not be on board with giving up this year to help evaluate for next year for a team he will not be a part of. McCarthy would continue to make decisions that would possibly save his job.

Jan 3rd I was told Mike was informed he would be fired if the team didn't perform this year

 

[swhitset]

Jan 3rd I was told Mike was informed he would be fired if the team didn't perform this year

interesting but not surprising I guess.

 

[Title Town USA]

The season is over anyways. What is there to lose?

The Packers have over an 80% chance of making the playoffs by winning out. Stop spreading fake news please.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Jan 3rd I was told Mike was informed he would be fired if the team didn't perform this year

Did your source say when that evaluation would be made? I assume they game him the season, so I guess on Dec. 3oth....

 

[longtimefan]

Did your source say when that evaluation would be made? I assume they game him the season, so I guess on Dec. 3oth....

No.. What I posted is what was said to me 8n a text.

 

[Forget Favre]

********. If we win out our chances of getting in currently sit around 75%. And you don't win out if you don't play. PLAY ON!

You do realize that it's going to take more than us just winning (Yeah, right) those last five games.
It also depends on how certain other teams do with winning or losing.
It's complicated and I don't get it but in a nutshell, the odds are against us getting to the Post.
And even if we do, so what?
The way this team has been this season, how are we supposed to get excited over yet another playoff game where they will most likely go home?

 

[XPack]

Forget the kitchen sink. We're down the drain.

 

[King of Jeans]

The Packers have over an 80% chance of making the playoffs by winning out. Stop spreading fake news please.

Hahahaha. Where is that stat now???