The Aaron Rodgers performance thread

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gbgary

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Not quite. Actually, not at all.

2021

Rodgers dead cap: $31,566 + Love's cap. If you want to turn the page then there's no additional money to build around. In fact, you lose cap compared to this season pre-draft to the tune of $10 mil cap + Love's cap cost. Rodgers cap number this year is $21.6 mil. You should be aware that even with Rodgers' very manageable cap cost and what some perceived as a fairly generous amount of cap space coming in, it got substantially spent without even landing an impact free agent. So beware of cap expections regardless.

2022

Rodgers dead cap: $17,204 + Love's cap. You're still not into savings over Rodgers current cap cost.

2023

Rodgers dead cap: $2.9 mil. Now you're talking and you're into Love's 4th. season.

The only ways you'll see Love taking over in 2021 or 2022 are:

1) The Packers believe Love gives them the better chance of winning in 2021 as a first year starter in which case dead cap does not matter if Rodgers is sitting on the bench (I cannot envision that) or out the door for a draft pick or not. But you've got substially less or the same cap to work with relative to this season.

2) One subset of 1) is the Packers offense sucks in 2020 or 2021, which couldn't possibly be LaFleur's or Gutekunst's fault, resulting in a turning of the page and installing Love. With less or the sam cap compared to Rodgers currently and Love a first year starter you'd be expecting to take some lumps in either of those years.

There will not be any page turning until 2023 unless the offense falls flat or Rodgers gets hurt and Love is an immediate revelation. It's possible but not likely.

One should not pontificate about cap without even looking at the numbers.
what? i looked at the numbers. if rodgers is released after 2020...
The Packers could move on after the 2020 season. If he’s released or traded before a $6.8 million roster bonus is due on the third day of the 2021 league-year, the Packers would absorb $31.556 million of dead cap but actually create $4.796 million of cap space...
yes there's no extra money THAT year for rebuilding but the thing is Love will be the guy, getting his first year of experience as a starter, but most importantly they'll be out from under the rodgers contract totally. there are no negative rodgers contract ramifications in 2022 or beyond. following this scenario rodgers not being on the roster in 2022 frees nearly $40m in cap space.
 

gbgary

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I have absolutely no idea how anyone can come up with a conclusion like that after the reading the article I linked to. Of course you're not a rational person when it comes to Rodgers so it shouldn't surprise me anymore.
dude...the paragraph i quoted came from the article you quoted. there is no other conclusion. lol
 
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Deleted member 6794

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dude...the paragraph i quoted came from the article you quoted. there is no other conclusion. lol

There wasn't a single word about Rodgers having bucked MLF's system last season in the article I linked to. You entirely made that up on your own.
 
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HardRightEdge

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what? i looked at the numbers. if rodgers is released after 2020...

yes there's no extra money THAT year for rebuilding but the thing is Love will be the guy, getting his first year of experience as a starter, but most importantly they'll be out from under the rodgers contract totally. there are no negative rodgers contract ramifications in 2022 or beyond. following this scenario rodgers not being on the roster in 2022 frees nearly $40m in cap space.
Yes, my point was the Packers might move on after 2020 but you don't get any cap bounty to work with.

After 2021 Rodgers dead cap is $17.2 mil. Rodgers cap cost for this season is $21.6 mil. For some perspective, relative to this season there's hardly any excess cap in 2021 in moving on from Rodgers and last time I checked this offseason didn't yield any impact free agents. The key benefit in dropping Rodgers would any decent draft pick he might yield.

In 2022, $22.6 mil in Rodgers cap savings, not $40 mil, so turning the page then looks more plausible but I would not expect to have an abundance of cap.

There's quite a few high value free agents coming up after 2020 and 2021, and the 2019 free agents and draft class will be in contract years. If Aaron Jones is a "pay the man", there are potentially a dozen others between now and then sucking cap or needing to be replaced. Last year's free agents will hit their high water marks in cap and cap savings in 2022. Any decline in performance and there's a good chance they'll be out the door before 2022 a la Graham. That would yield some quite decent saving along with Rodgers but then you're looking at quite a few new holes.

There are too many variables for any clarity 3 seasons hence. Even if the page is turned in 2022 there is no basis for thinking there will be rebuilding cap relative to the roster quality today.
 
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Pokerbrat2000

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It was just announced that the Chiefs are ready to sign a 10 year deal with Mahomes. See how that stacks up to what A-Rod is being paid.

Any guesses? I am guessing the initial comes in around $38-40M/year with some clauses to increase it over time and a butt load of guaranteed ($150M). Rodgers and the rest of the NFL top players are going to feel underpaid when these numbers come out.
 

tynimiller

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It was just announced that the Chiefs are ready to sign a 10 year deal with Mahomes. See how that stacks up to what A-Rod is being paid.

Any guesses? I am guessing the initial comes in around $38-40M/year with some clauses to increase it over time and a butt load of guaranteed ($150M). Rodgers and the rest of the NFL top players are going to feel underpaid when these numbers come out.

Why do I sense the Chiefs are going to blow vastly too much on Mahomes. He 100% deserves to arguably be the top paid QB, given current ability and the fact he is so young....but I just got an itch that they are going to be stupid about this.

As for Aaron, he cannot IMO compare his contract or a future one to Mahomes at all given the differences in their career points.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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As for Aaron, he cannot IMO compare his contract or a future one to Mahomes at all given the differences in their career points.

I agree and its probably why the Packers were willing to redo his contract earlier than required. Give him the top contract at the time and know that had they waited too much longer, those numbers are higher. Quite a few contracts are passing him up and before he hangs up his cleats, he will probably be more in the middle of the pack salary wise.
 
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HardRightEdge

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It was just announced that the Chiefs are ready to sign a 10 year deal with Mahomes. See how that stacks up to what A-Rod is being paid.

Any guesses? I am guessing the initial comes in around $38-40M/year with some clauses to increase it over time and a butt load of guaranteed ($150M). Rodgers and the rest of the NFL top players are going to feel underpaid when these numbers come out.
It will be interesting to see the terms of the contract. Signing bonus can be prorated over a maximum 5 years. Unless there is guaranteed salary in years 6-10 those years would in essence be team options with zero dead cap in which case it would be best to view it as a 5 year deal with the rest TBD.
 

rmontro

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Rodgers and the rest of the NFL top players are going to feel underpaid when these numbers come out.
Are athletic contracts going to continue to skyrocket if they can't put fans in the seats?
I know they'll still make a lot off of television.
 
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Yes, my point was the Packers might move on after 2020 but you don't get any cap bounty to work with.

After 2021 Rodgers dead cap is $17.2 mil. Rodgers cap cost for this season is $21.6 mil. For some perspective, relative to this season there's hardly any excess cap in 2021 in moving on from Rodgers and last time I checked this offseason didn't yield any impact free agents. The key benefit in dropping Rodgers would any decent draft pick he might yield.

In 2022, $22.6 mil in Rodgers cap savings, not $40 mil, so turning the page then looks more plausible but I would not expect to have an abundance of cap.

gbgary is right about the Packers saving $40 million (actually $44.648 million) in cap space until the end of the 2022 season by trading Rodgers after this year instead of holding on to him.

It was just announced that the Chiefs are ready to sign a 10 year deal with Mahomes. See how that stacks up to what A-Rod is being paid.

Any guesses? I am guessing the initial comes in around $38-40M/year with some clauses to increase it over time and a butt load of guaranteed ($150M). Rodgers and the rest of the NFL top players are going to feel underpaid when these numbers come out.

Mahomes can earn a total of $502.6 million over the next 12 years after signing an extension with the Chiefs yesterday.

It should be noted that the team only fully guaranteed $63 million of the deal and can opt out of it after only three seasons with the dead cap being at $4 million at this point.

In addition Mahomes is set to earn the majority of the deal based on roster bonuses ($337.2 million) until 2031.

Here's a link to a full breakdown of his deal:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/patrick-mahomes-21751/
 

tynimiller

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That size of a contract with that type of out is truly a double edged sword for sure. Crazy. I kinda hope it sets a precedent for similar type things....shoot I'm more than willing to pay someone a touch more if they're willing to lesson the damage done by cutting them at any point or after a certain point.
 

gopkrs

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All the talk about cutting/trading Rodgers...whenever... is just not going to happen (no matter cap crap) if he is playing great. imho
 
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That size of a contract with that type of out is truly a double edged sword for sure. Crazy. I kinda hope it sets a precedent for similar type things....shoot I'm more than willing to pay someone a touch more if they're willing to lesson the damage done by cutting them at any point or after a certain point.

One thing to consider with Mahomes' contract is that most of his roster bonuses as well as base salaries become guaranteed a year or even two in advance. That means the Chiefs won't be able to move on fron him without a significant amount of dead money counting against their cap.
 

tynimiller

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One thing to consider with Mahomes' contract is that most of his roster bonuses as well as base salaries become guaranteed a year or even two in advance. That means the Chiefs won't be able to move on fron him without a significant amount of dead money counting against their cap.


Ah, utterly misread the contract figures I've seen then. Thanks
 
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HardRightEdge

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Mahomes can earn a total of $502.6 million over the next 12 years after signing an extension with the Chiefs yesterday.

It should be noted that the team only fully guaranteed $63 million of the deal and can opt out of it after only three seasons with the dead cap being at $4 million at this point.

In addition Mahomes is set to earn the majority of the deal based on roster bonuses ($337.2 million) until 2031.

Here's a link to a full breakdown of his deal:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/patrick-mahomes-21751/
There's a disconnect between the verbiage at the top of the spotrac report and their table. The vebriage says $142 mil is guaranteed implying that the roster bonuses in years 4 and 5 are guaranteed. The dead cap in the chart implies those roster bonuses are not guaranteed. SI initially reported the $142 mil is guaranteed for injury which may resolve the discrepancy. Breer says the roster bonuses vest 1-2 years early.

Regardless, this is shockingly team friendly at the front end, especially with only $10 mil in signing bonus.

Besides seeing "only" $63 mil in cash over the first 3 years because of the low signing bonus Mahomes has to wait to see that money parsed out through the 2022, not up front with a big signing bonus, time value of money, all that. At the same time, the cap cost over those 3 years is only $62 mil.

While the Chiefs were pretty cap strapped going into this I can't help but think this was a cash issue, with the management argument going something like this: "We expect a huge red ink number in 2020 dipping into cash reserves as a result of empty seats. We can do it this way or wait until there is more visibility."

TV revenue cannot carry the day. Estimates vary as to how much NFL revenue derives from TV, but one report has it as somewhat more than 50%, $8 billion by one estimate that's as good as any, $250 mil per team.

When we look at Packer finances, an average revenue franchise we believe about on par with the Chiefs, and the only one for which we have numbers, the last fiscal year report showed about $480 million in revenue with about zero profit. The zero profit was atypical. The cash outlay in Rodgers signing bonus going into 2018 is the most likely cause. Typically Packer profit has been in the $40 - $70 mil range in recent years.

Now, if Packer non-TV revenue runs about $200 mil per year with most of that derived from the stadium and associated facilities, merchandise, concessions, parking that leaves a big hole going to the bottom line. Again, the Mahomes structure may be more about cash than cap.
gbgary is right about the Packers saving $40 million (actually $44.648 million) in cap space until the end of the 2022 season by trading Rodgers after this year instead of holding on to him.
I didn't catch that as the crux of that argument, but be that as it may, in the mean time Bakhtiari, Clark, Jones, King, Williams, Adams, Alexander, Kirsey and Wagner will be free agents, along with some others on rookie deals who still have a chance to emerge. In 2022, the FA class from 2019 will be in contract years pushing age 30 with big cap numbers and big cap savings.

While the cap situation would be much better without Rodgers after 2020 the likely ways to achieve a sufeit of cap for building around Love would not come until 2022 in the release of some combination of Smith, Smith and Amos, guys pushing 30 with big cap numbers and big cap savings, something that will occur regardless if there is a decline in play through age and/or injury, a la Graham but on a larger scale.

When signing those free agents in 2019 the runway to winning was 2-3 years, three if things go swimmingly, not if they aren't, but by year 4 the cap cost vs. cap savings looks daunting for those players.

The point being, knowing the quality of the roster and how much rebuilding cap would be available by 2022 even with Love installed in 2021 has very low visibility. Given the injuries, aging and declines that can occur over two season, I would expect it doesn't get more than passing glances at the cap management level. Besides, winning a Super Bowl with Rodgers in 2020 would mean he's going nowhere; the offense sh*tting the bed in 2020, Rodgers fault or not, would accelerate his departure, cap issues be d*amned.

More than cap savings, the key is stacking drafts to replace high priced players with cheaper option on rookie deals. Early returns show Gutekunst's success so far is pretty middling.
 
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H

HardRightEdge

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Here's a somewhat humorous side story to the Mahomes contract. All-Pro Marlon Humphrey tweeted, "This is a baseball contract". If we're to think that's an apples-to-apples comparison to Trout and not some lesser light then I can only say Humphrey's agent will be earning every penny. ;)
 
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HardRightEdge

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One thing to consider with Mahomes' contract is that most of his roster bonuses as well as base salaries become guaranteed a year or even two in advance. That means the Chiefs won't be able to move on fron him without a significant amount of dead money counting against their cap.
It's not clear how many years have that advance guarantee. Anyway, it would require some advance planning on the Chief's part to turn the page, like maybe trading up to #26 to draft a QB. ;)
 
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It's not clear how many years have that advance guarantee. Anyway, it would require some advance planning on the Chief's part to turn the page, like maybe trading up to #26 to draft a QB. ;)

I don't know if their information is accurate but in the article I linked to above Spotrac has listed the dates when Mahomes' roster bonuses and salaries become guaranteed.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Are athletic contracts going to continue to skyrocket if they can't put fans in the seats?
I know they'll still make a lot off of television.

Appears most sports are doing business with no regard to seasons potentially being cancelled or if they can put fans in seats. Probably due to the fact that guarantees are already mostly sunk costs and I believe in most sports, if their are no games, there won't be any salaries to pay out. I haven't really seen a clear statement on how all the financials will work out for a team like the Packers if the season is cancelled, but it can't be too good.

Your question though brings up an interesting question. Would the Packers lose more money by not having a season (not required to pay out salaries) or lose more money by playing a season with no fans, because then they still have to pay out all the salaries, but no ticket, concessions and day of game pro-shop sales? Ticket revenues (NFL) are only a small part of total revenues, I think around 15%.
 
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HardRightEdge

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I don't know if their information is accurate but in the article I linked to above Spotrac has listed the dates when Mahomes' roster bonuses and salaries become guaranteed.
OK, scrolling to the bottom I see that now. By 2025 it's only one year advance planning if it comes to that.
 
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HardRightEdge

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Are athletic contracts going to continue to skyrocket if they can't put fans in the seats?
It would be difficult to think pay can increase at the same rate with a big bite out of revenue, TV money notwithstanding, even if that's just a matter of a year or two dip in the pay scale. Still, there's no guarantee how many games will be played, and TV money earned, even with empty stands if enough players pass the virus amongst themselves. It comes down to how long this goes on, and how big the bite out of revenue becomes.

It's possible this thing does not get wrestled to the mat with some semblance of normalcy returning until there is an effective vaccine which is not just developed but also manufactured en masse, and dispensed en masse. Without federal coordination that's going to be a messy business.

Alternatively, if vaccine development fails, they you look toward herd immunity which by some estimates would require 70% of the population having contracted the disease, acquire immunity and are no longer transmitters. That is a very ugly proposition.
 

gbgary

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I'm waiting for you to support your claim that according to the article I linked to Rodgers bucked the system last year.

Obviously I know you won't come up with it.
*head lowered and in both hands*

from your article...
This eventually will become LaFleur’s full-fledged offense -- but not without Rodgers’ say.

what other conclusion can you come to from this statement? can you not read between the lines?
i'll make it simple for you.

"This eventually will become LaFleur’s full-fledged offense..." means last year they didn't run MLF's system in total.

"...but not without Rodgers’ say." means rodgers didn't want to run it and if they ever do, run it in total, it will only occur with Rodgers' approval.
 
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Would the Packers lose more money by not having a season (not required to pay out salaries) or lose more money by playing a season with no fans, because then they still have to pay out all the salaries, but no ticket, concessions and day of game pro-shop sales?

The CBA doesn't define that players don't need to be paid if the season is cancelled though.

OK, scrolling to the bottom I see that now. By 2025 it's only one year advance planning if it comes to that.

True, but the fact remains that the Chiefs moving on from Mahomes at some point during the contract would result in a significant amount of dead money counting against the cap.

*head lowered and in both hands*

from your article...


what other conclusion can you come to from this statement? can you not read between the lines?
i'll make it simple for you.

"This eventually will become LaFleur’s full-fledged offense..." means last year they didn't run MLF's system in total.

"...but not without Rodgers’ say." means rodgers didn't want to run it and if they ever do, run it in total, it will only occur with Rodgers' approval.

There's absolutely no way any reasonable person could come to such a conclusion after reading the article I linked to.

Of course that's different when talking to you. There are several reasons why MLF didn't fully run his system during the first season and none of them have anything to do with Rodgers. In addition and for the umpteenth time, it would be extremely stupid to not allow your HOF quarterback to have an input into the offense.
 

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