Running it Back

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About 8 weeks ago, I created a thread in which I detailed what it might look like to tear down the existing Green Bay roster and start over with Jordan Love. For the record, that's still what I think the Packers should do. However, given the better play of late and the glimmer of playoff hopes here on 12/20, I think the team is probably going to be more inclined towards running it back one more season.

So, if they chose that route, what could they do to try and improve the team around Rodgers? Here are my thoughts:

1. Coaching: The experiment in hiring Joe Barry to recreate the Joe Staley defense in Green Bay has utterly flopped. The Packers' defense is way less than the sum of its parts. It has become clear that Barry is a mercenary in the scheme he was meant to install, not a native. Thus, the Packers defense is bland, predictable, and soft. The bad news is that we've all had to suffer through it. The good news is that, even if they lose some cap casualties, there is real margin to improve here. It will start with a new DC and whoever he wants to bring with him. Here are guys I would consider:

-Todd Bowles, HC, Buccaneers*
-Jim Leonhard, DC/DBs/IHC, Wisconsin
-Ejiro Evero, DC, Broncos*
-Dennis Allen, HC, Saints*
-Brian Flores, SDA/LB, Steelers

*Assuming they become available

2. Cap Savings: The Packers' effective cap space in 2023 is -6M. They have 7M in space for this current year. I'm unclear as to whether the -6M could be cancelled by rolling over the current space, or if that -6M figure already includes any roll over. In any case, they need to create room and-- if they plan to make a run in 2023-- they need to do it without gutting the roster.

-Restructure Candidates: Two of the most obvious would be Rodgers and Bakhtiari; however, given their age and other factors, they may be a last resort. There aren't other obvious answers as the Packers are already mortgaged pretty tightly. What they may do is just a series of smallish restructures across the board with a number of their more expensive veterans, including Clark, Jones, Alexander, Smith, Campbell, and perhaps Douglas if the plan is to retain him. The most obvious move to me would be a big extension of Gary that got his 2023 number lower (currently 10.8M).

-Cut Candidates: The options here are slim because 1) most of the expensive guys on the roster carry a lot of dead money if they're released, and 2) you don't want to cut key guys if you're hoping to compete in 2023. There are really only three guys that they could save some money by releasing: Bakhtiari (6M), Jones (10.5M), Smith (3.3M), and Douglas (3.2M). I am not sure that any of those options save you enough space to warrant the move.

3. Player Retention: The Packers won't be able to keep all of their own guys because of salary cap straits. However, they must find a way to keep Elgton Jenkins in the building if they're serious about a run in 2023. If Yosh Nijman could be retained as well, so much the better. If they decided to effort any of the lesser names, I'd try to keep Keisean Nixon and Rudy Ford. I would guess that everyone else needs to walk (includes Amos, Cobb, Lowry, Crosby, Lazard, Tonyan, Reed, Lewis, etc.). One last possibility is that they try to retain Allen Lazard. If they run things back, they will need to get the pass catching options as strong as possible. The WR market will be weak, so they may decide that keeping Lazard is their best option.

4. Trades: If the Packers aren't going to move on to Jordan Love in 2023, he will want a trade and they should grant him one. Use him to acquire a cost-controlled return at a position of need, or a pick that could be used to attain such an asset. If it's me, I also try to see if I could generate any trade interest in Bakhtiari, but that would obviously create problems with #12. On the other side of the trade coin, the Packers may try to find a team willing to sell off a talented pass catcher, given that the FA market figures on being very weak. Teams that may be willing to sell include: Rams, Cardinals, Broncos, Colts, Bucs. Of those teams, the feasible options:

-M. Pittman, WR, IND
-D. Hopkins, WR, ARI*
-J. Jeudy, WR, DEN
-T. Higbee, TE, LAR

**Would require massive amounts of financial ingenuity

I would love to send Love to the Colts for Michael Pittman. I think that would be a phenomenal move if they're going all in. Pittman-Watson-Doubs would be an excellent trio of receivers to build around.

5. Free Agency: The defense is going to need to improve via coaching improvements and rookies. If any FA acquisitions are financially possible, they will need to be spent on offensive skill positions-- particularly pass catcher. I don't think that they should be picky between WR and TE-- however they can improve the options the most effectively. Options I like:

-J. Meyers, WR, NE
-D. Schultz, TE, DAL
-F. Moreau, TE, LV
-M. Gesicki, TE, MIA
-D. Chark, WR, DET

6. Draft: The Packers would need to be open to aggressive uses for their top pick. If it could be traded in order to land a veteran player, they should strongly consider such a move. If retained, high end pass catching talent should be targeted, via aggressive trade-up if necessary.

Conclusion: On the whole, I don't like this approach. I think the Packers are already too leveraged to be able to make the kind of gains they would need to make in order to be serious contenders again with Rodgers. However, if they do it, I hope they go all the way in. No room here for half measures.
 

tynimiller

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About 8 weeks ago, I created a thread in which I detailed what it might look like to tear down the existing Green Bay roster and start over with Jordan Love. For the record, that's still what I think the Packers should do. However, given the better play of late and the glimmer of playoff hopes here on 12/20, I think the team is probably going to be more inclined towards running it back one more season.

So, if they chose that route, what could they do to try and improve the team around Rodgers? Here are my thoughts:

1. Coaching: The experiment in hiring Joe Barry to recreate the Joe Staley defense in Green Bay has utterly flopped. The Packers' defense is way less than the sum of its parts. It has become clear that Barry is a mercenary in the scheme he was meant to install, not a native. Thus, the Packers defense is bland, predictable, and soft. The bad news is that we've all had to suffer through it. The good news is that, even if they lose some cap casualties, there is real margin to improve here. It will start with a new DC and whoever he wants to bring with him. Here are guys I would consider:

-Todd Bowles, HC, Buccaneers*
-Jim Leonhard, DC/DBs/IHC, Wisconsin
-Ejiro Evero, DC, Broncos*
-Dennis Allen, HC, Saints*
-Brian Flores, SDA/LB, Steelers

*Assuming they become available

2. Cap Savings: The Packers' effective cap space in 2023 is -6M. They have 7M in space for this current year. I'm unclear as to whether the -6M could be cancelled by rolling over the current space, or if that -6M figure already includes any roll over. In any case, they need to create room and-- if they plan to make a run in 2023-- they need to do it without gutting the roster.

-Restructure Candidates: Two of the most obvious would be Rodgers and Bakhtiari; however, given their age and other factors, they may be a last resort. There aren't other obvious answers as the Packers are already mortgaged pretty tightly. What they may do is just a series of smallish restructures across the board with a number of their more expensive veterans, including Clark, Jones, Alexander, Smith, Campbell, and perhaps Douglas if the plan is to retain him. The most obvious move to me would be a big extension of Gary that got his 2023 number lower (currently 10.8M).

-Cut Candidates: The options here are slim because 1) most of the expensive guys on the roster carry a lot of dead money if they're released, and 2) you don't want to cut key guys if you're hoping to compete in 2023. There are really only three guys that they could save some money by releasing: Bakhtiari (6M), Jones (10.5M), Smith (3.3M), and Douglas (3.2M). I am not sure that any of those options save you enough space to warrant the move.

3. Player Retention: The Packers won't be able to keep all of their own guys because of salary cap straits. However, they must find a way to keep Elgton Jenkins in the building if they're serious about a run in 2023. If Yosh Nijman could be retained as well, so much the better. If they decided to effort any of the lesser names, I'd try to keep Keisean Nixon and Rudy Ford. I would guess that everyone else needs to walk (includes Amos, Cobb, Lowry, Crosby, Lazard, Tonyan, Reed, Lewis, etc.). One last possibility is that they try to retain Allen Lazard. If they run things back, they will need to get the pass catching options as strong as possible. The WR market will be weak, so they may decide that keeping Lazard is their best option.

4. Trades: If the Packers aren't going to move on to Jordan Love in 2023, he will want a trade and they should grant him one. Use him to acquire a cost-controlled return at a position of need, or a pick that could be used to attain such an asset. If it's me, I also try to see if I could generate any trade interest in Bakhtiari, but that would obviously create problems with #12. On the other side of the trade coin, the Packers may try to find a team willing to sell off a talented pass catcher, given that the FA market figures on being very weak. Teams that may be willing to sell include: Rams, Cardinals, Broncos, Colts, Bucs. Of those teams, the feasible options:

-M. Pittman, WR, IND
-D. Hopkins, WR, ARI*
-J. Jeudy, WR, DEN
-T. Higbee, TE, LAR

**Would require massive amounts of financial ingenuity

I would love to send Love to the Colts for Michael Pittman. I think that would be a phenomenal move if they're going all in. Pittman-Watson-Doubs would be an excellent trio of receivers to build around.

5. Free Agency: The defense is going to need to improve via coaching improvements and rookies. If any FA acquisitions are financially possible, they will need to be spent on offensive skill positions-- particularly pass catcher. I don't think that they should be picky between WR and TE-- however they can improve the options the most effectively. Options I like:

-J. Meyers, WR, NE
-D. Schultz, TE, DAL
-F. Moreau, TE, LV
-M. Gesicki, TE, MIA
-D. Chark, WR, DET

6. Draft: The Packers would need to be open to aggressive uses for their top pick. If it could be traded in order to land a veteran player, they should strongly consider such a move. If retained, high end pass catching talent should be targeted, via aggressive trade-up if necessary.

Conclusion: On the whole, I don't like this approach. I think the Packers are already too leveraged to be able to make the kind of gains they would need to make in order to be serious contenders again with Rodgers. However, if they do it, I hope they go all the way in. No room here for half measures.

I feel very similar to you and agree with the "if we are going to run it back" you've outlined much of the process. The way it is cheaper to move from Rodgers after this season OR not till after the 2024 season....I fully expect #10 or #12 will not be part of this team come the 2023 season 100% - I don't want to predict something 100% but I truly am about as confident about that as anything else...
 

tynimiller

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6. Draft: The Packers would need to be open to aggressive uses for their top pick. If it could be traded in order to land a veteran player, they should strongly consider such a move. If retained, high end pass catching talent should be targeted, via aggressive trade-up if necessary.

Conclusion: On the whole, I don't like this approach. I think the Packers are already too leveraged to be able to make the kind of gains they would need to make in order to be serious contenders again with Rodgers. However, if they do it, I hope they go all the way in. No room here for half measures.

#6 if Rodgers is still here I completely agree...we most likely will pick somewhere between 6th (highest) and 14th or so. That is high enough to land an immediate capable player and maybe even touch more depending who it is. If we are in a Love scenario I'm a BIG proponent of trading back, trying to pick up an additional future 1st to pair with ours incase the Love experiment flunks and we have the capital to maybe go get a QB quick....while also building draft equity in the 2023 draft somewhere in that 25-35 pick range still.
 
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2. Cap Savings: The Packers' effective cap space in 2023 is -6M. They have 7M in space for this current year. I'm unclear as to whether the -6M could be cancelled by rolling over the current space, or if that -6M figure already includes any roll over. In any case, they need to create room and-- if they plan to make a run in 2023-- they need to do it without gutting the roster.

According to both Spotrac and Over The Cap the Packers will enter next offseason with a bit more than $3 million of cap space if the cap increases to $225 million as expected. The roll over from this season is already included in that number.

-Restructure Candidates: Two of the most obvious would be Rodgers and Bakhtiari; however, given their age and other factors, they may be a last resort.

There's no way to restructure Rodgers contract to lower his cap hit for next season aside of him forgoing fully guaranteed money. That's not gonna happen.

There aren't other obvious answers as the Packers are already mortgaged pretty tightly. What they may do is just a series of smallish restructures across the board with a number of their more expensive veterans, including Clark, Jones, Alexander, Smith, Campbell, and perhaps Douglas if the plan is to retain him. The most obvious move to me would be a big extension of Gary that got his 2023 number lower (currently 10.8M).

The Packers could actually create up to $70 million of cap space for next season by restructuring the deals of several players if they want to.

4. Trades: If the Packers aren't going to move on to Jordan Love in 2023, he will want a trade and they should grant him one. Use him to acquire a cost-controlled return at a position of need, or a pick that could be used to attain such an asset. If it's me, I also try to see if I could generate any trade interest in Bakhtiari, but that would obviously create problems with #12.

I don't think other teams would be willing to give up enough in return for Love to acquire a decent player at a position of need or a draft pick high enough to select one.

Trading Bakhtiari would possibly create problems at left tackle, something you definitely don't want to while trying to run it back.

I would love to send Love to the Colts for Michael Pittman.

Why on earth would the Colts agree to that deal???
 

gopkrs

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There's no way to restructure Rodgers contract to lower his cap hit for next season aside of him forgoing fully guaranteed money. That's not gonna happen.
The important thing to me about any possible trade is acquiring high draft picks. The cap seems to be screwed the next 2 years no matter what. And I have nothing against high picks down the road. Especially since 1. Love will probably need some time just like ARod and Favre did and 2. the cap is not looking good right now but should in a couple years.
 

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According to both Spotrac and Over The Cap the Packers will enter next offseason with a bit more than $3 million of cap space if the cap increases to $225 million as expected. The roll over from this season is already included in that number.



There's no way to restructure Rodgers contract to lower his cap hit for next season aside of him forgoing fully guaranteed money. That's not gonna happen.



The Packers could actually create up to $70 million of cap space for next season by restructuring the deals of several players if they want to.



I don't think other teams would be willing to give up enough in return for Love to acquire a decent player at a position of need or a draft pick high enough to select one.

Trading Bakhtiari would possibly create problems at left tackle, something you definitely don't want to while trying to run it back.



Why on earth would the Colts agree to that deal???
Because the Colts have already found out they can go 4-9-1 with Pittman and Ryan and have a very real need for a QB in the near future?
 

Magooch

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Because the Colts have already found out they can go 4-9-1 with Pittman and Ryan and have a very real need for a QB in the near future?
As it stands they would be drafting 6th so I suspect they'd just as soon draft a QB and get one on a rookie contract rather than trade away one of their best young players for a QB that's still a huge unknown and would require a new contract. I don't have anything against Love but if the Colts were even remotely willing to straight up trade Pittman for him I'd be heading to Lambeau to help him pack up his locker myself tonight....and Chris Ballard would probably be looking for a new job.
 
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According to both Spotrac and Over The Cap the Packers will enter next offseason with a bit more than $3 million of cap space if the cap increases to $225 million as expected. The roll over from this season is already included in that number.

Trading Bakhtiari would possibly create problems at left tackle, something you definitely don't want to while trying to run it back.

Why on earth would the Colts agree to that deal???

As I wrote in the post you quoted, they have -6M in effective cap space. Did you misunderstand or is needless correction just a bodily function for you at this point?

Trading Bakhtiari, which is highly unlikely, would open a spot for Zach Tom to slide in. Left tackle is his natural position and he's very promising.

Well, gee... because they have no answer at QB and may end up picking too late in round 1 to be certain of one of the top prospects in this class. I figured that even you would be able to put that one together.
 
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As it stands they would be drafting 6th so I suspect they'd just as soon draft a QB and get one on a rookie contract rather than trade away one of their best young players for a QB that's still a huge unknown and would require a new contract. I don't have anything against Love but if the Colts were even remotely willing to straight up trade Pittman for him I'd be heading to Lambeau to help him pack up his locker myself tonight....and Chris Ballard would probably be looking for a new job.

Packers' fans view of Love is totally skewed by their erstwhile draft day disappointment. If teams internally evaluate what they have seen or will see yet this season and believe that Love has the ability to be a starter, his value is super high. He's still young and he's always been talented; now it seems that he may have developed. Even if you have to give him a new contract soon, it won't be top of market because he's still relatively unproven. If Ballard landed their new starter (a 25 year old rather than a guy on his last legs) for a WR in a contract year, he would be locking up job security.
 

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I would love to send Love to the Colts for Michael Pittman. I think that would be a phenomenal move if they're going all in. Pittman-Watson-Doubs would be an excellent trio of receivers to build around.

This would be a great move to make.

Great trio for Rodgers' last chapter.

Is Indy willing to deal?

What incentive would Indy have to send away Pittman and take away a WR1 from the "newly acquired" Love?

Would they want something or someone along with Love?
 
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The important thing to me about any possible trade is acquiring high draft picks. The cap seems to be screwed the next 2 years no matter what. And I have nothing against high picks down the road. Especially since 1. Love will probably need some time just like ARod and Favre did and 2. the cap is not looking good right now but should in a couple years.

The Packers can create cap space for next season by restructuring several contracts. They will have to deal with a significant amount of dead money at some point but they can push it out into the future if they want to.

Because the Colts have already found out they can go 4-9-1 with Pittman and Ryan and have a very real need for a QB in the near future?

While I agree the Colts have a need at quarterback they would be stupid to trade away a young receiver who is on base to put up 1,000 yards for the second consecutive season for a complete unknown quarterback who is in need of a new contract.

As I wrote in the post you quoted, they have -6M in effective cap space. Did you misunderstand or is needless correction just a bodily function for you at this point?

Boy oh boy, you asked if the roll over was included in the number you posted, something I answered and now you're pi$$sed off that I did??? :rolleyes:

The reason I didn't post the effective cap space numbers is that those are largely dependent on the team's draft position, which could theoretically end up somewhere between 2nd and 32nd overall resulting in a difference in cap space allocated to rookies by up to more than $5.6 million.

Trading Bakhtiari, which is highly unlikely, would open a spot for Zach Tom to slide in. Left tackle is his natural position and he's very promising.

While I agree that Tom has looked promising so far I wouldn't feel confident about entering a season in which the Packers go all-in with him as the starting left tackle.

Well, gee... because they have no answer at QB and may end up picking too late in round 1 to be certain of one of the top prospects in this class. I figured that even you would be able to put that one together.

The Colts are currently slated to pick sixth overall with only the Texans ahead of them in the market for a quarterback. Therefore I highly doubt they would be interested in acquiring Love. But even if they did there's absolutely no way they would trade away Pittman for him.

Packers' fans view of Love is totally skewed by their erstwhile draft day disappointment. If teams internally evaluate what they have seen or will see yet this season and believe that Love has the ability to be a starter, his value is super high. He's still young and he's always been talented; now it seems that he may have developed. Even if you have to give him a new contract soon, it won't be top of market because he's still relatively unproven. If Ballard landed their new starter (a 25 year old rather than a guy on his last legs) for a WR in a contract year, he would be locking up job security.

Love definitely hasn't shown enough to suggest other teams have put a super high value on him. In my opinion fans believing that to be true are the ones having a skewed opinion about him.
 

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According to both Spotrac and Over The Cap the Packers will enter next offseason with a bit more than $3 million of cap space if the cap increases to $225 million as expected. The roll over from this season is already included in that number.



There's no way to restructure Rodgers contract to lower his cap hit for next season aside of him forgoing fully guaranteed money. That's not gonna happen.



The Packers could actually create up to $70 million of cap space for next season by restructuring the deals of several players if they want to.



I don't think other teams would be willing to give up enough in return for Love to acquire a decent player at a position of need or a draft pick high enough to select one.

Trading Bakhtiari would possibly create problems at left tackle, something you definitely don't want to while trying to run it back.



Why on earth would the Colts agree to that deal???
Well, ordinarily the Colts would be thinking NO. But when you blow a 33 point lead especially when you had chances on offense to put it away you might be thinking you need a lot of Love.
 
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Well, ordinarily the Colts would be thinking NO. But when you blow a 33 point lead especially when you had chances on offense to put it away you might be thinking you need a lot of Love.

Once again, I'm not suggesting the Colts aren't interested in Love. I'm absolutely convinced they wouldn't even think about trading Pittman for him though.
 

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The Packers can create cap space for next season by restructuring several contracts. They will have to deal with a significant amount of dead money at some point but they can push it out into the future if they want to.
For me, I'd rather not keep pushing. If we are going to give a new QB a chance; we have to give him a good team to play with imho. The first couple years are normally tough anyway but after that things could kick in. If we don't saddle ourselves with dead weight.
 

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While I agree that Tom has looked promising so far I wouldn't feel confident about entering a season in which the Packers go all-in with him as the starting left tackle.
I would. He has done very well. Or are you talking about getting hurt? Need to keep drafting O linemen anyway and maybe stay away from paying someone Bakhtiari money.
 

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I feel very similar to you and agree with the "if we are going to run it back" you've outlined much of the process. The way it is cheaper to move from Rodgers after this season OR not till after the 2024 season....I fully expect #10 or #12 will not be part of this team come the 2023 season 100% - I don't want to predict something 100% but I truly am about as confident about that as anything else...
Do you believe they will trade Love this offseason? Or will they try to trade Rodgers? I have a feeling both will be on the roster in 2023 but who knows about 2024. The best thing would be for AR to retire after the 2023 season and go with Love in 2024.
 

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Do you believe they will trade Love this offseason? Or will they try to trade Rodgers? I have a feeling both will be on the roster in 2023 but who knows about 2024. The best thing would be for AR to retire after the 2023 season and go with Love in 2024.

I literally have zero clue and am split. I just don't see a world where they both are here and it "going well" at least from an internal aspect. This organization needs to cut ties with one, even if it has to force the decision regardless of what it is. If that means telling Aaron thanks but done or if that means sacrificing a first round pick for little return and trading Love. IMO this organization cannot continue to playcate to both the future and the present and actually be successful to the degree we all want.
 

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Put me in the no clue category as well. I can see any of the scenarios coming true and we won't know how it goes until it's over.

Rodgers retires/Love takes over
Rodgers doesn't retire/Love asks for trade and gets one
Rodgers doesn't retire/Love seeks trade and doesn't get dealt
Rodgers is the starter and Love is our back up like it has been.
.
.
.
.
.
Rodgers is traded/Love is our starter
 
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Boy oh boy, you asked if the roll over was included in the number you posted, something I answered and now you're pi$$sed off that I did??? :rolleyes:

No, I'm not ticked off that you answered that question. I'm generally just sick of the way you pollute the forum by offering nothing original and simply nitpicking everyone's posts. This is the same thing that literally everyone else is sick of, if you hadn't noticed.

But if you'd like to save time, you can skip answering any of my questions. You speak so confidently from ignorance that I am not going to take your word for anything. To the contrary, your utter disdain for Love makes me pretty optimistic about the guy.
 

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The Packers can create cap space for next season by restructuring several contracts. They will have to deal with a significant amount of dead money at some point but they can push it out into the future if they want to.



While I agree the Colts have a need at quarterback they would be stupid to trade away a young receiver who is on base to put up 1,000 yards for the second consecutive season for a complete unknown quarterback who is in need of a new contract.



Boy oh boy, you asked if the roll over was included in the number you posted, something I answered and now you're pi$$sed off that I did??? :rolleyes:

The reason I didn't post the effective cap space numbers is that those are largely dependent on the team's draft position, which could theoretically end up somewhere between 2nd and 32nd overall resulting in a difference in cap space allocated to rookies by up to more than $5.6 million.



While I agree that Tom has looked promising so far I wouldn't feel confident about entering a season in which the Packers go all-in with him as the starting left tackle.



The Colts are currently slated to pick sixth overall with only the Texans ahead of them in the market for a quarterback. Therefore I highly doubt they would be interested in acquiring Love. But even if they did there's absolutely no way they would trade away Pittman for him.



Love definitely hasn't shown enough to suggest other teams have put a super high value on him. In my opinion fans believing that to be true are the ones having a skewed opinion about him.
Depends a lot on what other teams thought of Love prior to 2020 draft and what they think of him now plus what they've heard Packer defensive players say about Love this year.
In the grand scheme of things, QB play is far more important than WR play.
 

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Do you believe they will trade Love this offseason? Or will they try to trade Rodgers? I have a feeling both will be on the roster in 2023 but who knows about 2024. The best thing would be for AR to retire after the 2023 season and go with Love in 2024.

I would think if Rodgers commits early to coming back, Love will ask for a trade. If they do trade him I can't see them getting more than a second if that. What I would do in that case is see about getting a second and maybe a fifth or 6th in this draft and a conditional first based on playing time and performance in the following draft.
 

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