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Red Zone, Long TD & Turnover Performance

Discussion in 'Green Bay Packers Fan Forum' started by HardRightEdge, Nov 14, 2019.

  1. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Through Week 10, 2019:

    Red Zone

    Red Zone performance is measured from the opponent's 19 yard line on in; long TDs are 20+ yards.

    The Packers TD scoring in the Red Zone is 68.6%, 3rd. ranked. TD scoring against the defense is 48.5%, 8th. ranked. That doesn't mean as much if the other teams is getting there more often than you. Fortunately, that is not the case.

    The Packers offense has scored 24 TDs on 35 red zone trips. Opponents have scored TDs on 16 of 33 trips. Without breaking down every trip to account for any two-point conversion attempts, missed FGs, or 4th. down/out-of-time failures resulting in zero points (e.g., Williams and McCaffrey in this last game), the reasonable baseline for analysis is 7 points for each TD trip and 3 points for each failure, the typical result absent the outliers.

    On that basis, Packer offesensive performance baselines at (24 x 7) + (11 x 3) = 201 points.

    The opponents = (16 x 7) + (17 x 3) = 163 points.

    The difference is 3.8 points per game. That is a lot, and goes a long way toward accounting for the 8-2 record. The Packers gross points for vs. points against is 4.5 per game.

    The fact opponents got to the red zone two fewer times is likely a function of turnover differential which I'll get to in a bit. As posted in another thread today, 3rd. down performance would not account for it given the Packers defense is pretty average on that count.

    Long TDs

    Red zone performance is less of a factor in the win-loss column if your offense scores a lot more TDs on big plays from 20+ yards than your opponents, or vise versa.

    The Packers have scored TDs on 20+ yard plays six times, all passes. Opponents have had 7 such plays, 1 run and 6 passes. That's a minor offset to the Packers Red Zone outperformance. It hinges on one additional outlier play.

    It might be worth noting 5 of those 7 opponent long TDs were in the first five games, then two by the Chiefs, then none in the last two games. If the eye test says the defense has increased emphasis on stopping long plays, that at least shows up in the decreasing long TD count.

    Turnover Differential

    No mystery here. The Packers are +9, 3rd. ranked, almost +1 per game. That is significant. It effectively goes to +8 with a blocked Scott punt given the lost field position. I don't recall the Packers blocking a punt or a high percentage FG. I could be wrong.

    Conclusion

    When you look at yards for and against, then on down the line to 3rd. down performance, return game performance, or even defensive TDs scored, you end up with a mediocre picture, poor in some areas.

    But it goes to show, if you outperform in the red zone and win the turnover game that goes a long way to winning on the scoreboard.

    Is red zone performance and + turnover performance consistently repeatable? That's debateable and remains to be seen. We at least know Rodgers will limit INTs.
     
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2019
    • Informative Informative x 1
  2. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    I think the absence of giveaways are reliably repeatable, but the presence of takeaways at a high rate is probably not.

    I'm inclined to think then when you have Aaron Rodgers and a viable running game, the red zone performance is reliable.
     
  3. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    I agree in general. As to specifics, Rodgers limiting INTs is the one pretty reliable prediction I would make regardless of the opponent.

    I'm not so sanguine that any of the rest is reliable in any one game. Tape is accumulating. Any one opponent might find red zone vulnerabilities in that tape. I'd be more confident if the getting there was more frequent and the opponent getting there less so. That would imply improvements in other aspects of the game as an offset to any one-day fall-off in the red zone. If the improved 3rd. down performance continues, that would be help, getting better short yardage 3rd. down performance in particular.
     
  4. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    I could see some regression in red zone rushing touchdowns, but it seems that Rodgers and Adams are due for some "positive regression" in the red zone.
     
  5. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    I could see Mr. Money on the slant chipping in. 6 games and no TDs...he's due. I'm concerned about the defense continuing on this pace. We saw some Capers Ds do the bend-don't-break thing only to bend-and-break as the year wore on. I'd like to see less bending in the first place to make the question less relevant.
     
  6. OldSchool101

    OldSchool101 Peerless Beer, Lacrosse WI

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    Oh I think so. We have lots of a RedZone options this year after getting the RB’s very involved. The RB’s are a much larger part of that success than past seasons. I don’t see that slowing down. Matter of fact, If anything the return of Davante Adams after missing the entire month of October puts us in a more strategic advantage as we have our full array of playmakers.
    https://packerswire.usatoday.com/20...ms-emerging-as-top-nfl-rb-tandem-for-packers/
    As a bonus, we may very likely see the return of either Tonyan or Sternberger or both through the finish of what’s already been a largely successful 2019 Red Zone scoring campaign, as noted by your figures above. Then you look at our schedule and comparatively speaking it’s not any more difficult than what we’ve already faced. Arguably much less difficult once we get past SF.

    Last, It’s nice having our QB back and not hobbled, he’s playing at a high level and he’s using whatever resources are available to win games. We can win (and have) without ever throwing a TD pass, which is just remarkable and it opens an array of options that will increasingly cause big problems for opposing Defenses.
    It’s no longer #12 carrying the Pack by himself. He’s got 2 capable Pack horses. The plot is a good one, this story is just unfolding and getting good.
     
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2019
  7. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    The defense has sucked lately. The DL really needs to step up after the bye, because the second level defenders aren't getting any better.

    I'm intrigued with the idea of using Fackrell more as an off ball player.
     
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  8. OldSchool101

    OldSchool101 Peerless Beer, Lacrosse WI

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    I agree. That would also get the best talent on the field simultaneously.
     
  9. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    It seems to me Pettine is doing less blitzing, more zone, more prevent, with a priority on preventlng big play TDs. Those coverages don't look especially coherent. I despise the 3-man rush; it makes it too easy for the QB to get out of the pocket and into the scramble drill where zone is particularly vulnerable for the throw even if not the run.

    I mentioned Fackrell as a 4-3 OLB or in a hybrid scheme for somebody based on the observation that he looks good dropping in coverage in the flats. He looks looks like a smart player who knows what he's looking at. I don't think you want to see him isolated on quicker TEs or a RB.

    As it stands, Fackrell's snaps have been inching up as the season wears on, his two highest counts in weeks 8 and 10, 33 and 29 respectively. Gary seems to be stuck in the 14-18 snap range, somewhat disappointing in not having made some progress to earning more field time.
     
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2019
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  10. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Some additional info:

    The Packers offense leads the league with 5.50 points scored per red zone opportunity with their defense ranking fourth allowing an average of 4.15.

    Their +1.35 points different is best in the league as well.
     
    • Informative Informative x 2
  11. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Nice content, HRE.

    It's just the first year of the MLF offensive era, an I see improvement every week. But Its the 2nd year of the Pettine era, you would think it's maxing out on performance. I see minor adjustments, but I think what we have is all we are going to get. Unless Burks suddenly figures things out, this defense won't get much better.
     

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