Ravens duds and studs

[OldSchool101]

Just gimme a first-round-playoff win against the Bears and I'll go home happy.

Sounds so pathetic.. but I’m on board!

 

[OldSchool101]

This was the third game in which the Packers didn't punt this year, and we are 0-3 in those games. The rest of the league is 8-0 in games where they didn't punt.

I heard a weird stat and I’m going off memory here so give me allowance

GB is the only team to have 3 games in the same season during the Superboel era where they did not Punt.. and still lost all 3 games

Packers pull off ugly feat that no NFL team has ever done: Green Bay hits historical low in loss to Ravens

The Packer are officially on the wrong side of NFL history

www.cbssports.com

 

[rmontro]

This is actually the first time in history that a team lost 3 games in one season in which they never punted.

I believe it. Sounds like just the sort of record we would set (I guess I'm still a little bitter over that Ravens performance - not the loss so much as the performance).

Seems strange too, because up until now we've had a pretty good defense, it seems odd that we would lose those games. Although two of them have been since we lost Parsons.

 

[rmontro]

Did one of the players step on a crack or something?

Maybe someone should check the structural integrity of Lambeau Field.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think Malik Willis will get a contract comparable to a low level starter. It won’t go beyond 3 years. It won’t take up more than 5% of the cap for the prospective team.

I could see a 2 year contract with incentives. He will have to continue to prove himself which I think he will.

I think the best thing Willis and his agent can do/should do is get a one-year-prove-it contract for around $20 mil. That's risky, but if Willis continues his excellent play, it could mean another $20 mil/year for him on a three year deal at spprox. $40 mil AAV.

I don't think any team is willing to give him a 3-year deal worth much more than $20 mil AAV. I think the risk of doing a one-year deal is worth it. Willis doesn't lack in confidence.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Daniel Jones is looking to get the Giants a 4th. It isn't just the pay/contract although that is a large part. Amount of snaps for the team also is a factor and also the seasons they have they say.

Few examples:

Daniel Jones got $14M/1Yr and until injured was their starter - most estimate 4th round pick will happen.
Russell Wilson got $10.5M/1Yr and seems 6th is the concensus with some fairly confident sites saying 5th rounder.

Now it is VERY hard to predict what Malik gets for sure...VERY SMALL SAMPLE SIZE. But he is 26 years old currently...Jones was 28 and Wilson was 37.

Many would say worst case Malik will be viewed like Jones was on the market. Which he many forget wasn't signed to be Colts clear starter. I think Malik very well could be by a team.

I would predict Malik worst case gets $13.5M/1Yr deal or he gets a $65M/3Yr deal with only like $18.5M of it guaranteed but cap numbers would be low enough that if he plays good the team ain't letting him go anywhere after year 1.

Or does a team see him in same light as TB saw Baker....who got $100M/3Yr.

I personally think it is a crapshoot to try and pinpoint but truthfully somewhere between that Daniel Jones deal and the Baker deal is where he falls for sure IMO.

I think you're about right on the range of deals possible for Willis. I would take a risk and sign a one-year deal for $20 mil, well if he can get that, and I think he can.

As for draft comp, I don't know the formula. Seems like Willis would be worth at least a 4th round pick, ideally a 3rd.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I heard a weird stat and I’m going off memory here so give me allowance

GB is the only team to have 3 games in the same season during the Superboel era where they did not Punt.. and still lost all 3 games

Packers pull off ugly feat that no NFL team has ever done: Green Bay hits historical low in loss to Ravens

The Packer are officially on the wrong side of NFL history

www.cbssports.com

That's pretty wild. How does a team not punt and lose?

 

[Heyjoe4]

Sounds so pathetic.. but I’m on board!

Yeah I hate to concede anything - but a first round playoff win would be quite an accomplishment for this very banged up team. All the better if it's the Bears.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Mayfield was a hot commodity coming out and got saddled in Cleveland. I think your $65M 3 year is his ceiling but I dont think anyone will/will have to lock in $18.5. Now, if he plays meaningful snaps and does well that could change. If I was his agent I’d be hoping he’s done for the year. The odds of him improving his standing are far lower than the odds he comes back to earth.

Yeah if the season ended today, Willis would be in a sweet spot. He has been successful in GB every time he's been given the ball. If I were him, I wouldn't want to pay another down. But it seems very likley he'll play a lot against the queens. OR, MLF wants to see what he's got in Thune. There's nothing to lose really. This game means nothing.

I don't like the idea of starting the playoffs on a 4-game losing streak. The Packers have enough injuries. No need to risk getting more.

MLF may treat it as the last PS game. Let the starters play for a series, maybe two, and sit them all down.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Colts are one of the teams I have circled for him as well.

I think the Saints who really have just Rattler and Tyler Shough...neither of which have shown a ton...but they currenlty sit at 8th in the draft...and could see more value in signing Malik and building with that pick rather than likely not get a choice of QB prospect but what is left.

Pittsburgh....Rodgers could be done after this year...Mason Rudolph is not the future and they pick 20th right now (could change)....

Carolina....they have Bryce for this year and next BUT have to make the fifth year option choice soon....could they decide NOT to pick it up....sign Malik and have a real true one year battle.....while I've heard it floated around, I think with them in the hunt, they'll push in their cards with Bryce and use that money on more help elsewhere.

Arizona would make sense after 2026 but man right now....splitting with Kyler only saves a few million...and they have Jacoby signed too so that doesn't make sense.

A sneaky pick for him might be the Rams...if McVay and Company know Stafford is done now or will finish next year in his final contract year....could they look to sneak their potential future now?

Well Willis certainly doesn't lack for options. It's a matter of how much faith a GM wants to put into three starts (maybe 4) played to near perfection.

My best guess is Willis ends up in Indianapolis. The queens might decide JJM isn't going to be the man. As a Packer fan, that's the worst-case scenario.

 

[tynimiller]

Well Willis certainly doesn't lack for options. It's a matter of how much faith a GM wants to put into three starts (maybe 4) played to near perfection.

My best guess is Willis ends up in Indianapolis. The queens might decide JJM isn't going to be the man. As a Packer fan, that's the worst-case scenario.

JJ looked really good last few games before most recent injury. They'd be morons to give up on him before seeing a full year.

 

[tynimiller]

I think you're about right on the range of deals possible for Willis. I would take a risk and sign a one-year deal for $20 mil, well if he can get that, and I think he can.

As for draft comp, I don't know the formula. Seems like Willis would be worth at least a 4th round pick, ideally a 3rd.

If Willis signs a deal north of $12M a year and is a teams starter for 75% or so of the year he for sure would likely net us a 4th....BUT that is going to be offset by any FA signing we bring in as well.

Banks is likely going to get the Niners a 4th because of the amount of snaps he's played and the contract.

 

[mradtke66]

If Willis signs a deal north of $12M a year and is a teams starter for 75% or so of the year he for sure would likely net us a 4th....BUT that is going to be offset by any FA signing we bring in as well.

Banks is likely going to get the Niners a 4th because of the amount of snaps he's played and the contract.

I don’t see us spending much in FA this off season. Jenkins is gone and Gary looks like he’s trying to get gone, but that’s only so much space.

We’ll re-sign a handful of our pending FAs, maybe extend a young player or two, possibly shuffle around Parsons’ bonuses around if we have extra, and tada, the space will be gone.

 

[rmontro]

That's pretty wild. How does a team not punt and lose?

Must be a combination of turning the ball over, stalling in the red zone, getting field goals instead of TDs, and/or giving up too many points.

 

[tynimiller]

I don’t see us spending much in FA this off season. Jenkins is gone and Gary looks like he’s trying to get gone, but that’s only so much space.

We’ll re-sign a handful of our pending FAs, maybe extend a young player or two, possibly shuffle around Parsons’ bonuses around if we have extra, and tada, the space will be gone.

We are going to likely have around $50M in space to do what we will. Just cutting Jenkins puts it at $40M (rounded up from 39 and change). We don't have to set aside as much for rookie deals either without a first rounder.

Yes some of that could be resignings but in truth I think at this point only Rasheed and Rhyan might get legit offers....Quay has been such a roller coaster and this last game he's lucky they didn't clean his locker out that night (he better have been playing sick or something).

Gute and Co push for change and removal from this years' bad taste, they could cut Banks and Nixon for an additional $9.6Million

 

[mradtke66]

We are going to likely have around $50M in space to do what we will. Just cutting Jenkins puts it at $40M (rounded up from 39 and change). We don't have to set aside as much for rookie deals either without a first rounder.

Yes some of that could be resignings but in truth I think at this point only Rasheed and Rhyan might get legit offers...

I’d plan on Rhyan getting starter money. He’s rough around the edges, but I like his nasty on the inside. And it’ll give some year to year consistency.

.Quay has been such a roller coaster and this last game he's lucky they didn't clean his locker out that night (he better have been playing sick or something).

I blame most of this last game on our DTs. Hard enough to fight through the trash under ideal circumstances, worse when a center gets to you clean, worse still when you have to run through DTs 5 yards downfield.

Though I do think the whole team was obviously sick last game.

Gute and Co push for change and removal from this years' bad taste, they could cut Banks and Nixon for an additional $9.6Million

I think they both stick around. Nixon is cheap and sadly still our best CB.

Banks is just overpriced, but that happens when you dip into free agency.

 

[Half Empty]

That's pretty wild. How does a team not punt and lose?

I can show you three ways.

 

[Magooch]

I am pretty curious to see how it shakes out too. Worth noting (and I am far from a cap wizard myself), but I was seeing Ken Ingalls (who I am sure you are all familiar with) saying that... including cutting both Gary and Jenkins, when accounting for offering tendering ERFAs and signing PS futures, plus signing draft picks, and what he calls "basic roster maintenance" he's arriving at a projection of just 11.2m "effective cap space"....

Personally I feel like right now Rhyan has to be the priority signing from there. I don't have much faith in Monk, I don't see any legitimate and/or reasonable options coming up in FA, and this draft doesn't look super strong at the moment for OL (and of that it seems C is usually the weakest position). IMO if you don't extend Rhyan you're basically gonna need to lock in to drafting C with your 2nd rd pick.

Hobbs, Banks, and even Jacobs* could potentially be moved to free up a bit of cash but I don't know if any/all are gonna be worth it...Nixon is hit or miss but we are already starving for outside CBs and one of the only other ones can't tackle worth a lick. I think you have to keep him...

Maybe you also press for stuff like Wyatt or Kraft extensions? It's a bummer for them but injury likely lowered prices and now is an opportune time to get that done. That probably frees up a bit now too

*not me pushing for it but I wonder if they don't consider a possible scenario to "reset the clock" similar to the Jones>Jacobs transition. In theory (knock on wood) you have Lloyd returning, maybe bring back Wilson for cheap, and pick up a younger FA like a Breece Hall? I wouldn't put it as super likely but that would seemingly buy some more room and get younger there. But just thinking out loud...

 

[tynimiller]

I am pretty curious to see how it shakes out too. Worth noting (and I am far from a cap wizard myself), but I was seeing Ken Ingalls (who I am sure you are all familiar with) saying that... including cutting both Gary and Jenkins, when accounting for offering tendering ERFAs and signing PS futures, plus signing draft picks, and what he calls "basic roster maintenance" he's arriving at a projection of just 11.2m "effective cap space"....

Personally I feel like right now Rhyan has to be the priority signing from there. I don't have much faith in Monk, I don't see any legitimate and/or reasonable options coming up in FA, and this draft doesn't look super strong at the moment for OL (and of that it seems C is usually the weakest position). IMO if you don't extend Rhyan you're basically gonna need to lock in to drafting C with your 2nd rd pick.

Hobbs, Banks, and even Jacobs* could potentially be moved to free up a bit of cash but I don't know if any/all are gonna be worth it...Nixon is hit or miss but we are already starving for outside CBs and one of the only other ones can't tackle worth a lick. I think you have to keep him...

Maybe you also press for stuff like Wyatt or Kraft extensions? It's a bummer for them but injury likely lowered prices and now is an opportune time to get that done. That probably frees up a bit now too

*not me pushing for it but I wonder if they don't consider a possible scenario to "reset the clock" similar to the Jones>Jacobs transition. In theory (knock on wood) you have Lloyd returning, maybe bring back Wilson for cheap, and pick up a younger FA like a Breece Hall? I wouldn't put it as super likely but that would seemingly buy some more room and get younger there. But just thinking out loud...

Wyatt just had his fifth year picked up...I don't know but I know you cannot discuss contract stuff until a year after a deal or extension...wonder if that is same for that or not.

 

[OldSchool101]

I am pretty curious to see how it shakes out too. Worth noting (and I am far from a cap wizard myself), but I was seeing Ken Ingalls (who I am sure you are all familiar with) saying that... including cutting both Gary and Jenkins, when accounting for offering tendering ERFAs and signing PS futures, plus signing draft picks, and what he calls "basic roster maintenance" he's arriving at a projection of just 11.2m "effective cap space"....

Personally I feel like right now Rhyan has to be the priority signing from there. I don't have much faith in Monk, I don't see any legitimate and/or reasonable options coming up in FA, and this draft doesn't look super strong at the moment for OL (and of that it seems C is usually the weakest position). IMO if you don't extend Rhyan you're basically gonna need to lock in to drafting C with your 2nd rd pick.

Hobbs, Banks, and even Jacobs* could potentially be moved to free up a bit of cash but I don't know if any/all are gonna be worth it...Nixon is hit or miss but we are already starving for outside CBs and one of the only other ones can't tackle worth a lick. I think you have to keep him...

Maybe you also press for stuff like Wyatt or Kraft extensions? It's a bummer for them but injury likely lowered prices and now is an opportune time to get that done. That probably frees up a bit now too

*not me pushing for it but I wonder if they don't consider a possible scenario to "reset the clock" similar to the Jones>Jacobs transition. In theory (knock on wood) you have Lloyd returning, maybe bring back Wilson for cheap, and pick up a younger FA like a Breece Hall? I wouldn't put it as super likely but that would seemingly buy some more room and get younger there. But just thinking out loud...

From what I’m seeing on OTC. Green Bay currently sits with about $9mil when including the Roster 51 AND 2026 Draft pick contracts calculated into the equation.
They show Banks as a Post June savings (Cap) of 18mil.
They show Elgton as a $20Mil savings (Cap)

That pair alone is a massive amount of funds to work with and while it’s not ideal to swallow $10.75mil total Dead on these players, they play nowhere close to their potential Cap hits of $24.8 + $24.85 Million or $49,650,000 combined Hit.

 

[Pugger]

3rd Question to ponder:

If someone offered you transportation, hotel and tickets to the 2nd round of the playoffs with the following caveat, would you do it?

You pay a non-refundable price of $300. If the Packers win in round 1, you get a great trip, lodging and tickets to wherever the Packers play next. If the Packers lose in the 1st round, you get nothing.

I'd rather watch from the comfort of my couch. You miss a lot when you are there in person.

 

[Pugger]

Hobbs failed because he proved he is not an outside corner. I cannot imagine how much easier I'd breathe had he proven capable there. He's a solid slot guy but Bull has that on lock.

Yup. Gute got all these slot corners and we tried to play them outside. Talk about square pegs and round holes...

 

[Pugger]

I think they give JJ another year.

I do want Malik Willis to get a great deal because he’s earned it.

A 1+1 with a team like the Colts is feasible.

If their QB returns to form I'll be surprised if the Colts show interest. They were on a serious roll until he got hurt.

 

[rmontro]

If their QB returns to form I'll be surprised if the Colts show interest. They were on a serious roll until he got hurt.

He was on a one year contract though.

 

[Heyjoe4]

We are going to likely have around $50M in space to do what we will. Just cutting Jenkins puts it at $40M (rounded up from 39 and change). We don't have to set aside as much for rookie deals either without a first rounder.

Yes some of that could be resignings but in truth I think at this point only Rasheed and Rhyan might get legit offers....Quay has been such a roller coaster and this last game he's lucky they didn't clean his locker out that night (he better have been playing sick or something).

Gute and Co push for change and removal from this years' bad taste, they could cut Banks and Nixon for an additional $9.6Million

That’s a decent amount of cap. CB is the biggest need. Any FAs look interesting? Of course Hobbs looked interesting.

Stuff happens. I trust Gluten to plug holes where he can. And I look forward to getting a lot of guys back, especially Kraft, Parsons and Wyatt - well as soon as possible into the season.