Packers vs Bears: S103,E1

[OldSchool101]

Swift - I don't want anyone spying on a Lions RB on Sunday... (but we all knew who you meant).

Kaepernick devastated the Pack, too.

The 2025 GB Defense is a far cry from 2012-2015 era. Almost polar opposites.

 

[formerlybis]

We do?

To clarify, the previous poster was talking about containing Montgomery (a Lion) when he meant Swift (a Bear). I understand the confusion because Montgomery did used to be a Bear, and Swift used to be a Lion.

 

[gopkrs]

To clarify, the previous poster was talking about containing Montgomery (a Lion) when he meant Swift (a Bear). I understand the confusion because Montgomery did used to be a Bear, and Swift used to be a Lion.

But what about Caleb? Maybe you could set your sights on the RB first and quickly change to spying on the QB when you see it's not a running play. Though it would not surprise me much if they have a couple running plays for Caleb. Parsons, with his quickness and speed is hopefully going to keep Caleb contained and nervous.

 

[OldSchool101]

Something I’m noticing that’s very intentional. All the talk is about the Bears Rushing attack. Obviously that is their strength so I get it. That said, on the other the Packers Offense is #1 in the NFL on combined 3rd/4th down % success. The Packers quietly rank #1 on 3rd down success% and #4 on 4th down%. What GB has not done is converted it all to points. Missed FG’s, blocked XP, blocked FG’s etc hampered GB earlier in the season. GB has converted 67.39% of their Redzone trips so far in 2025 (#3 in the NFL). This is up +9% over 2024. In minimal possession games id argue that one of the most important factors is “efficiency” in scoring.

The Packers are -1 Rushing TD behind the Bears 14 vs 15. Both teams are tied with 45 total TD’s on Offense. GB is 95 for 401 yards rushing (4.22 per) across the last 3 weeks. 2 of those 3 Defenses we played ranked Top #5,10 in Rushing allowed Per play. When we played #32 NY Giants? we crushed them for 5.6 per carry. Chicago ranks #30 in Rushing yards per play allowed (5.2) So while all the focus is on GB stopping the Run, it’s also just as likely we see GB having success on the ground on the other side of the equation.

The GB RB room has a slight advantage of 10.5 days between games. The Packer Coaching staff also had extra preparation in film study of the Bears nuances. It’s one thing to play at lunchtime on Thursday after traveling to Michigan on a 4 day interval VS 10.5 days rest and sleeping in your own bed.

GB is no slouch at home in December and in particular under this regime. IMO we are the best team Chicago has faced in 2025. much like Chicago, the Packers are Talent laden everywhere. The Packers OL looks to be gelling, the WR’s are getting healthier. Very possible we see Matt Golden and Jayden Reed in some capacity injected into the Offense this Sunday and both are versatile, high quality, short play options. Also several Run stoppers are practicing again. Quay Walker, Edgerrin Cooper and yes, even Dobbs are all physical, run stopping options that may be injected into the mold. This is not a slouch Run Defense and that’s with or without Wyatt. Lots of physicality and even more speed. Jeff Hafley is still largely underestimated
I suspect he will employ an extra Box Defender and rely on Xavier to cover deep. Lots of regular 4 DL, 3 LB, 1 SS sets. That with a Safety shooting into the backfield regularly to anticipate a 50% TFL if it’s designed that direction If Chicago is expecting to run for 250+ yards, imo they’ll be severely dismayed snd I mean thoroughly disappointed.

 

[formerlybis]

10.5 days (game is flexed to Sunday Night).

This game on Sunday is at 3:25. The game in 2 weeks at Chicago was the one that was flexed.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Swift - I don't want anyone spying on a Lions RB on Sunday... (but we all knew who you meant).

Kaepernick devastated the Pack, too.

My bad. Thanks for the correction.

And yeah, Kaepernick put a real hurt on GB with his legs.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Something I’m noticing that’s very intentional. All the talk is about the Bears Rushing attack. Obviously that is their strength so I get it. That said, on the other the Packers Offense is #1 in the NFL on combined 3rd/4th down % success. The Packers quietly rank #1 on 3rd down success% and #4 on 4th down%. What GB has not done is converted it all to points. Missed FG’s, blocked XP, blocked FG’s etc hampered GB earlier in the season. GB has converted 67.39% of their Redzone trips so far in 2025 (#3 in the NFL). This is up +9% over 2024. In minimal possession games id argue that one of the most important factors is “efficiency” in scoring.

The Packers are -1 Rushing TD behind the Bears 14 vs 15. Both teams are tied with 45 total TD’s on Offense. GB is 95 for 401 yards rushing (4.22 per) across the last 3 weeks. 2 of those 3 Defenses we played ranked Top #5,10 in Rushing allowed Per play. When we played #32 NY Giants? we crushed them for 5.6 per carry. Chicago ranks #30 in Rushing yards per play allowed (5.2) So while all the focus is on GB stopping the Run, it’s also just as likely we see GB having success on the ground on the other side of the equation.

The GB RB room has a slight advantage of 10.5 days between games. The Packer Coaching staff also had extra preparation in film study of the Bears nuances. It’s one thing to play at lunchtime on Thursday after traveling to Michigan on a 4 day interval VS 10.5 days rest and sleeping in your own bed.

GB is no slouch at home in December and in particular under this regime. IMO we are the best team Chicago has faced in 2025. much like Chicago, the Packers are Talent laden everywhere. The Packers OL looks to be gelling, the WR’s are getting healthier. Very possible we see Matt Golden and Jayden Reed in some capacity injected into the Offense this Sunday and both are versatile, high quality, short play options. Also several Run stoppers are practicing again. Quay Walker, Edgerrin Cooper and yes, even Dobbs are all physical, run stopping options that may be injected into the mold. This is not a slouch Run Defense and that’s with or without Wyatt. Lots of physicality and even more speed. Jeff Hafley is still largely underestimated
I suspect he will employ an extra Box Defender and rely on Xavier to cover deep. Lots of regular 4 DL, 3 LB, 1 SS sets. That with a Safety shooting into the backfield regularly to anticipate a 50% TFL if it’s designed that direction If Chicago is expecting to run for 250+ yards, imo they’ll be severely dismayed snd I mean thoroughly disappointed.

"Something I’m noticing that’s very intentional. All the talk is about the Bears Rushing attack."

Yeah that's what happens when you have two guys with about 130 yards each rushing. That's not intentional, it's obvious.

I don't know the stats, but GB's run D has been so-so. Losing Wyatt hurts. He was a big presence in the middle, and Stackhouse and Brinson will have to step up their game. I believe they will, and Stackhouse has been getting regular snaps, as Ty noted.

At least this year, the Bears have the advantage in the run game. And their QB is pretty good too, with his arm and his legs.

To win, the Packers need to score early and get a two possession lead by half time. Easy to say. They don't play well from behind. If MLF keeps Love under center, and deftly mixes runs with passes and RPOs, the Packers will prevail.

I watched the Bears/Eagles game. The Bears dominated the Eagles in all aspects of the game. It was never close. The Bears owned TOP and wore the Eagels' D down. Yes the Packers have more talent and that seems to be what your post is about. But games are won or lost on execution and minimizing mistakes (TOs and penalties). The Packers have more talent than the Browns and Panthers too.

It's gonna be a close game, and the Packers win by a TD, 27-20.

 

[Half Empty]

I don't know the stats, but GB's run D has been so-so. Losing Wyatt hurts.

To each his own on what stats to follow, but in the YPC category, the Pack is tied (with four other teams) for 5th place.

 

[Magooch]

Something that makes this one particularly interesting to me is that you could really make a decent case that these two teams are in a lot of ways basically opposites of each other...

Most noticeably though in terms of the advanced metrics. By most advanced stats, Green Bay is amongst the cream of the crop, the league's elite - by many measures the Packers have an elite QB, an elite offense, an average pass defense, and an elite run defense.
Yet there are many games where they don't "feel" so elite, and arguably have a knack for letting opponents hang around and keep games closer than they "should" be.

On the other hand, by the same advanced stats, Chicago is "should" be a pretty mediocre team this year. They don't have an elite QB (Bottom-3rd), they have a slightly above-average offense, an average pass defense, and a bad run defense. But at the same time it feels like they have had quite a few games where they are "punching above their weight" or "snatching victory from the jaws of defeat". Just like it feels like we "let" opponents hang around, it feels like they have a real knack for being a team that...hangs around

The Bears offense is one of the best at generating big plays; the Packers defense is one of the best at limiting big plays. The Bears have more takeaways than anyone; the Packers have less giveaways than anyone, too. The Bears have an elite rushing attack; the Packers have an elite rush defense. The Bears are one of the best at chewing up the clock on offense; the Packers are one of the best at limiting teams per-play production.

Furthermore, for instance... on the season thus far we have scored 19 less points than they have... but we have allowed 81 *less* points against us. We have a point differential of +68, which is 8th in the league. Chicago has a point differential of just +6, which is 16th. Yet they are a half game ahead of us.

In short, if it were played on paper, we should win and run away with it. But, as we all know, that is not often the case...

I will say, the betting lines have us as roughly touchdown favorites (-6.5). In our last 20 games at Lambeau as 6pt favorites (or better), we are 16-4 overall, and 12-8 in terms of the spread...

 

[milani]

He played for Atlanta, right?

I'm not sure what his arm strength/accuracy was like, but he ran like a scatback and he was built to withstand hits. Short career due to his personal problem with dog fighting.

Played with Atlanta. Destroyed us in the snow at Lambeau when Sherman was the coach. Came back with Philly after the suspension. Packers beat him twice in 2010. Our D could have used a Clay Matthews about a decade earlier. When healthy he could run down any QB.

 

[milani]

The 2025 GB Defense is a far cry from 2012-2015 era. Almost polar opposites.

We are much faster to the outside and quicker off the snap. What gave Kaepernick his success was not simply because he could run. His team had at least 9 Pro Bowlers. His O line was maybe the best in the league. He had a solid TE, good WRs. He also had Frank Gore in the backfield. So you could not key on any one thing. Plus the 9er D gave him the ball back all the time. AND he had a great coach in Harbaugh.
But when those pieces disappeared Kaepernick could not get it done. The Packers beat him 17-3 out there.

 

[Half Empty]

In short, if it were played on paper, we should win and run away with it. But, as we all know, that is not often the case...

If only...

 

[gopkrs]

We are much faster to the outside and quicker off the snap. What gave Kaepernick his success was not simply because he could run. His team had at least 9 Pro Bowlers. His O line was maybe the best in the league. He had a solid TE, good WRs. He also had Frank Gore in the backfield. So you could not key on any one thing. Plus the 9er D gave him the ball back all the time. AND he had a great coach in Harbaugh.
But when those pieces disappeared Kaepernick could not get it done. The Packers beat him 17-3 out there.

Capers didn't feel lije playing contain.

 

[milani]

Capers didn't feel lije playing contain.

Ironic, because when he was in Carolina he did play much more contain with a veteran defense. He started with press when Woodson and Al Harris were there. But then he went into prevent and still gave up big plays.

 

[milani]

"Something I’m noticing that’s very intentional. All the talk is about the Bears Rushing attack."

Yeah that's what happens when you have two guys with about 130 yards each rushing. That's not intentional, it's obvious.

I don't know the stats, but GB's run D has been so-so. Losing Wyatt hurts. He was a big presence in the middle, and Stackhouse and Brinson will have to step up their game. I believe they will, and Stackhouse has been getting regular snaps, as Ty noted.

At least this year, the Bears have the advantage in the run game. And their QB is pretty good too, with his arm and his legs.

To win, the Packers need to score early and get a two possession lead by half time. Easy to say. They don't play well from behind. If MLF keeps Love under center, and deftly mixes runs with passes and RPOs, the Packers will prevail.

I watched the Bears/Eagles game. The Bears dominated the Eagles in all aspects of the game. It was never close. The Bears owned TOP and wore the Eagels' D down. Yes the Packers have more talent and that seems to be what your post is about. But games are won or lost on execution and minimizing mistakes (TOs and penalties). The Packers have more talent than the Browns and Panthers too.

It's gonna be a close game, and the Packers win by a TD, 27-20.

The Eagles had a chance to turn the game around but the fumble with one yard to go at the Bear 12 was a killer. And that is how the Bear season has gone. This is what they will be trying to do Sunday. MLF is preaching ball security right now.

 

[milani]

Something that makes this one particularly interesting to me is that you could really make a decent case that these two teams are in a lot of ways basically opposites of each other...

Most noticeably though in terms of the advanced metrics. By most advanced stats, Green Bay is amongst the cream of the crop, the league's elite - by many measures the Packers have an elite QB, an elite offense, an average pass defense, and an elite run defense.
Yet there are many games where they don't "feel" so elite, and arguably have a knack for letting opponents hang around and keep games closer than they "should" be.

On the other hand, by the same advanced stats, Chicago is "should" be a pretty mediocre team this year. They don't have an elite QB (Bottom-3rd), they have a slightly above-average offense, an average pass defense, and a bad run defense. But at the same time it feels like they have had quite a few games where they are "punching above their weight" or "snatching victory from the jaws of defeat". Just like it feels like we "let" opponents hang around, it feels like they have a real knack for being a team that...hangs around

The Bears offense is one of the best at generating big plays; the Packers defense is one of the best at limiting big plays. The Bears have more takeaways than anyone; the Packers have less giveaways than anyone, too. The Bears have an elite rushing attack; the Packers have an elite rush defense. The Bears are one of the best at chewing up the clock on offense; the Packers are one of the best at limiting teams per-play production.

Furthermore, for instance... on the season thus far we have scored 19 less points than they have... but we have allowed 81 *less* points against us. We have a point differential of +68, which is 8th in the league. Chicago has a point differential of just +6, which is 16th. Yet they are a half game ahead of us.

In short, if it were played on paper, we should win and run away with it. But, as we all know, that is not often the case...

I will say, the betting lines have us as roughly touchdown favorites (-6.5). In our last 20 games at Lambeau as 6pt favorites (or better), we are 16-4 overall, and 12-8 in terms of the spread...

Right now I will go out on a limb and say that the Bears will win the division and will be the #2 seed in the NFC next to the Rams. I hope I am wrong.

 

[OldSchool101]

This game on Sunday is at 3:25. The game in 2 weeks at Chicago was the one that was flexed.

ok thanks. I would’ve missed the game!

 

[OldSchool101]

Right now I will go out on a limb and say that the Bears will win the division and will be the #2 seed in the NFC next to the Rams. I hope I am wrong.

That’s one shaky limb

 

[rmontro]

This game on Sunday is at 3:25. The game in 2 weeks at Chicago was the one that was flexed.

That's true, although this game was also flexed. It was originally a noon game.

 

[Guacamole]

I don't understand why they flex games, other than money

 

[OldSchool101]

Interesting note. After tonight Detroit at current pace will likely move into 1st place in the NFL in Rushing yards per carry (5.1 per)
-Chicago is tied with Washington at
5th in rushing per carry (4.9)

Against the Packers in 2025? Detroit is 52 Rushes at 3.17 per carry. The Packers sit at #5 (tied) per carry against the Run (3.9)

 

[lambeaulambo]

That’s one shaky limb

limp noodle

 

[El Guapo]

I don't understand why they flex games, other than money

Money of course is tied to more viewership. They know that more fans want to watch this game than whatever was originally scheduled, so they kill two birds with one stone. They give the fans the best games to watch and make more money in the process.

It also gives Packers fans more time to tailgate, which I appreciate.

 

[OldSchool101]

I don't understand why they flex games, other than money

The NFL wants you to see every fiber of their muscle.

 

[Guacamole]

Money of course is tied to more viewership. They know that more fans want to watch this game than whatever was originally scheduled, so they kill two birds with one stone. They give the fans the best games to watch and make more money in the process.

It also gives Packers fans more time to tailgate, which I appreciate.

it also screws fans who have tickets to the regular schedule time...
Note to self...never buy tickets for after Thanksgiving games before season starts