Packers vs Bears: S103,E1

[Pugger]

Feet are weird. You hurt part of the structural weight bearing parts. And they can never heal sometimes. So I'm guessing the GB doctors are on the side of caution , and save the comeback possibility for playoff time.

Of it was playoff time now, would he play?

I do know Savion Williams was hurt. Was coming back. Was seen in a walking boot. Played that week, and then missed the next week completely. Not sure if it was even related to the foot to be honest. But now he is coming back this week... Again. So the walking boot might not be a terrible thing. But doesn't look optimistic for a comeback this week.

Cox is coming back off IR too.... I don't want to get too optimistic. But LVN and Cox back in the rotation, giving Parsons and Gary time to recharge...Is going to pay dividends in pressure on the QB.

I know all about foot problems. I severely sprained my right ankle in April and it still isn't right. The ankle is okay but the top of my foot still hurts at times. I'm going to see a podiatrist at the end of the month to find out what is going on. LVN is 47 years younger than me (holy smokes! lol) so he should heal quicker than someone my age.

 

[El Guapo]

I know all about foot problems. I severely sprained my right ankle in April and it still isn't right. The ankle is okay but the top of my foot still hurts at times. I'm going to see a podiatrist at the end of the month to find out what is going on. LVN is 47 years younger than me (holy smokes! lol) so he should heal quicker than someone my age.

Obviously there are worse things to hear from a doctor, but one of them is, "Well at your age...."

 

[OldSchool101]

Wow that is impressive. +17?! Dang.

Caleb protecting the ball.

It is impressive. One thing Caleb is he really above average at ball security. Now they do run a lot, but Caleb’s turnover ratio is low. That’s really helped their NET takeaways.

The Packers started awful in takeaways. Then around 5-6 weeks ago we began averaging 1 per game for an 4 game stretch and were steadily improved since.

 

[OldSchool101]

Or as bad as their record. It can be discussed. And comparisons to other teams can be made. In the NCAA we have seen 12-0 or 13-0 teams meet. And when they do one will emerge as the winner. So when we say not as good or not as bad it is only relative to other teams that have the same record or a different record. So when saying not as good as their record indicates it is better to say that team is not as good as another team or teams with the same record. Now that is objective.

Either way Chicago has gotten better as the season progressed. The important thing is “lately”. Lately Chicago looks better imo.

That said, the fact remains we are the best Defense Chicago has faced. We are also seeing an uptick from a middling area Offense into that Top 12 area, but I’d say rising. GB is Probably a top 10 area feel in real time.

So in conclusion we’re talking a Top 5 area Defense and Top 10 area Offense and playing at home, which is always a 2-3 point advantage depending on weather etc.

We’ve got 2 teams with very similar records playing a December game at Lambeau. One team has beat a higher number of quality opponents (call it .500+) and that is GB. We now know Carolina is not nearly as bad as some in here made them out to be. Like Chicago Panthers have an opportunistic Defense and a good Run game on Offense with that Dowdle fella. Regardless of any of our week to week individual fears or concerns, objectively it’s very arguable that GB has to be a favorite by at minimum homefield advantage (-3) etc.
At worst -2 or -1 after losing Wyatt.

 

[Magooch]

Just FWIW, accounting for both offense and defense, EPA stats have us as about the 2nd or 3rd best team in the league - right behind Rams and pretty well level with the Colts - and has the Bears around 12th or 13th

 

[Heyjoe4]

It's the battle for first place. The Bears are 9-3 and the Packers are 8-3-1. If the Packers win, we will be 9-3-1 while the Bears would be 9-4. If we lose it's them at 10-3 and us at 10-4-1 with a big hill to climb.

Despite what @RRyder thinks, the Bears are a good team. They just beat the Eagles on the road, who are (yes) slumping but the Eagles still beat us at during their slump while we were playing at home. I don't think that the Bears are as good as the Packers from a roster comparison, but they've been playing better football than us through the middle of the season. We've now played two really good games lately so hopefully we will win. It's two good teams battling for first place. Get your popcorn ready.

Losing Wyatt is a huge blow but it may be balanced out by getting more offense back with Jayden Reed.

Agreed, the Bears have a good team. Their D is ok, nothing special, so GB will win with a heavier mix or run v pass. I hope they start platooning Wilson with Jacobs. Montgomery and Monangai proved last week there is room for two quality backs with different running styles. And as always, the run sets up the RPO. Looking forward to seeing Reed again.

In Wyatt's unfortunate absence, I expect Stackhouse will get a significant increase in snaps. I like the guy, like his attitude. Next man up, and he's a good one.

It seems like the last two wins have been "must wins" and here's a third. I expect Packer talent to win over Bear execution. Probably a 7-point win for the Packers, say 27-20. Start fast, build a two-possession lead, and run the ball from there and control TPO. Easy peasy, eh?

 

[OldSchool101]

I will offer this. If we get going on the run game and Jordan Love plays anything close to week 13 (NFC player of the Week). We’re going to surprise a very good Chicago team. The only real chance they have is to get out to a 2-score lead early. Even then Jordan is almost as good as Caleb at comebacks once we open him up fully.

If Haf can mitigate the Chicago Run game under 65 yards per half, this is a GB Win imo. It’ll be a battle, but GB is playing better all around football.

 

[Heyjoe4]

It is impressive. One thing Caleb is he really above average at ball security. Now they do run a lot, but Caleb’s turnover ratio is low. That’s really helped their NET takeaways.

The Packers started awful in takeaways. Then around 5-6 weeks ago we began averaging 1 per game for an 4 game stretch and were steadily improved since.

Seems like with wins over the queens and Lions, the Packers have finally found some consistency in calling and executing plays. I expect they will have more run attempts than pass, so a healthy mix of Jacobs and Wilson is expected. Hopefully Reed can provide a consistent target out of the slot.

As for stopping the Bears run..... If they do the same thing they did to the Eagles, they will slant the OL at an angle to the left and Monangai will bounce right into a lot of green. So make McDuffie or Cooper a spy on these downs and keep him from making big plays. Strangely, the Eagles never adjusted last Friday, and the Bears ran all over them. Don't make it that easy.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I will offer this. If we get going on the run game and Jordan Love plays anything close to week 13 (NFC player of the Week). We’re going to surprise a very good Chicago team. The only real chance they have is to get out to a 2-score lead early. Even then Jordan is almost as good as Caleb at comebacks once we open him up fully.

If Haf can mitigate the Chicago Run game under 65 yards per half, this is a GB Win imo.

Yeah they can't let the Bears run wild as the Eagles did. Keep total running yards at 120 or less and it will be a Packer win.

And the Packers are good (when they have their A game) at getting out to two possession leads early, whether 10-0 or 14-0. If they can do that again, they'll limit the Bears' run game. GB has the talent advantage here, especially on D. Packers 27, Bears 20. Welcome back Jaylen Reed and Matthew Golden.

And why not ride the hot hand Wicks is showing? GB just has a wealth of receiving talent, even with Kraft not playing.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Just FWIW, accounting for both offense and defense, EPA stats have us as about the 2nd or 3rd best team in the league - right behind Rams and pretty well level with the Colts - and has the Bears around 12th or 13th

Interesting stat Magooch, thanks. Umm until the Eagles, it was ok to say the Bears were playing above their collective pay grade. That may still be true, as the Eagles played a terrible game - the players and the coaches. That's rare.

I expect a GB win, 27-20.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Either way Chicago has gotten better as the season progressed. The important thing is “lately”. Lately Chicago looks better imo.

That said, the fact remains we are the best Defense Chicago has faced. We are also seeing an uptick from a middling area Offense into that Top 12 area, but I’d say rising. GB is Probably a top 10 area feel in real time.

So in conclusion we’re talking a Top 5 area Defense and Top 10 area Offense and playing at home, which is always a 2-3 point advantage depending on weather etc.

We’ve got 2 teams with very similar records playing a December game at Lambeau. One team has beat a higher number of quality opponents (call it .500+) and that is GB. We now know Carolina is not nearly as bad as some in here made them out to be. Like Chicago Panthers have an opportunistic Defense and a good Run game on Offense with that Dowdle fella. Regardless of any of our week to week individual fears or concerns, objectively it’s very arguable that GB has to be a favorite by at minimum homefield advantage (-3) etc.
At worst -2 or -1 after losing Wyatt.

The Bears D is average, the Packers D is elite (we can argue about the CBs some other time). I think it was Poker who noted that given the elite play of the rest of the D, the CBs don't have to be superstars. I'd be happy if they (read: Nixon) would stop with the penalties. Oh and Valentine has to keep replaying that TD he gave up to Williams. Wrap up!

 

[milani]

Oh, I definitely agree with you there.

The Bears have leveled up. Going into last week, the Eagles led the league with only 6 turnovers. The Packers were in 2nd place with 7. The Bears forced the Eagles into two turnovers.

While I believe that we are the better team, the Eagles felt that way too. We need to be careful of the turnover monsters of the midway.

I just believe this is our toughest contest of the season. Each team has different strengths and weaknesses. The difference is that no one expected the Bears to be 9-3 at this point in the season regardless of anything. But most pundits DID believe the Packers were capable of 8-3-1 with 5 weeks to go.

 

[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

The key to this game Sunday is the Packers need to score early and let them play catch up ball.

Go Pack!

 

[milani]

The cold. Icy weather appears to favor the run team and the one who can force turnovers. Fumbles are more frequent in these conditions.
Bears will employ a similar game plan as Carolina. Pound it up the middle and hope the back can cut it outside. They will use lot of clock. Caleb will throw in play action under center and try and throw darts over the middle. Then when we stack it he will bootleg to the edge and run or throw. The one defense that is capable of stopping that the most is Denver.
On the other side the Bears will press and attack the football on every play. You could March down the field and they will strip it. This is old Lovie football. They play like there is no tomorrow. That can be a double edged sword.

 

[Poppa San]

Just curious. Member for six years, first post?

Probably Bears fan given stated 'Johnson is the best coach, been winning without injured players and Packers would be 'fortunate' to win and Lombardi in the Redskin hat.

Plus it's taken 6 years for these games to be relevant so they were just waiting for the perfect time.

Past weekend was the first he's logged in since 2021. Logged in quite a bit his 1st year here. Wonder if he remembered his PW or needed it reset this weekend? Genuinely curious so I checked out some Mod tools I haven't used before.

 

[Poppa San]

Can already see it now, Lloyd's going to come back and pop off for 125 rushing yards, 75 rec yards, and 3 TD, and then do his knee and we won't see him again until next October

As long as it's the game in February.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I just believe this is our toughest contest of the season. Each team has different strengths and weaknesses. The difference is that no one expected the Bears to be 9-3 at this point in the season regardless of anything. But most pundits DID believe the Packers were capable of 8-3-1 with 5 weeks to go.

After watching the Eagles game, I agree, this will be the toughest game so far for the Packers. Even so, my prediction is for a 27-20 Packers win.

This game will be decided by the Packers' defense. The Bears D is average, nothing special. The Packers D is elite, or very close to it. But the Bears run a lot and Wyatt is out - yep, so next men up (Stackhouse, Brinson) - and Hafley needs to come up with some creative ways to slow the Bears' run game (it will be hard to stop it).

I would have McDuffie or Cooper "spy" on Monangai and Montgomery on running downs. Against the Eagles, the Bears got a tremendous leftwards push from their OL, but the Eagles had the gaps closed well. Monangai fakes into the line, then bounces to his right and a sea of green. Keep a LB or S home to catch those.

The Eagles never adjusted and the Bears absolutely pounded them.

Second, take advantage of th Bears' average D and get out to a fast, two-possession-lead start. They did this against the Lions in both wins and it worked. Use Wilson to spell Jacobs and create a one-two ground attack similar to the Bears. Keep Love under center as much as possible to make RPO work. Reed should be back, and even with some rust, the Packers WRs will be too much for the Bears.

Finally, CW is a threat to run. He's very fast and can outrun LBs on the edge. Might be another case where a spy is assigned, although the Packetrs D has been very good at sealing the edge. Just something to watch for. Allen, Hurst, and Jackson are great runners because they're strong. CW is just plain-ol fast.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The cold. Icy weather appears to favor the run team and the one who can force turnovers. Fumbles are more frequent in these conditions.
Bears will employ a similar game plan as Carolina. Pound it up the middle and hope the back can cut it outside. They will use lot of clock. Caleb will throw in play action under center and try and throw darts over the middle. Then when we stack it he will bootleg to the edge and run or throw. The one defense that is capable of stopping that the most is Denver.
On the other side the Bears will press and attack the football on every play. You could March down the field and they will strip it. This is old Lovie football. They play like there is no tomorrow. That can be a double edged sword.

Good description of the upcoming game. Looks like it will be very, very cold - and that means a lot of running plays.

The only thing I add to your description is this - the Packers D has to respect CW's speed. He's not a big guy who will plow into a defender, but he is surprisingly fast when the pocket breaks down. Might be worth a spy to keep him where he belongs.

Then again, the Packers have some very fast LBs and do a good job of sealing the edges.

Packers 27, Bears 20.

 

[milani]

Good description of the upcoming game. Looks like it will be very, very cold - and that means a lot of running plays.

The only thing I add to your description is this - the Packers D has to respect CW's speed. He's not a big guy who will plow into a defender, but he is surprisingly fast when the pocket breaks down. Might be worth a spy to keep him where he belongs.

Then again, the Packers have some very fast LBs and do a good job of sealing the edges.

Packers 27, Bears 20.

And CW is different than Lamar Jackson or Hurts. CW tends to just bust loose on instinct. He hurt us last year with his feet.

 

[tynimiller]

And CW is different than Lamar Jackson or Hurts. CW tends to just bust loose on instinct. He hurt us last year with his feet.

I think a different CW is going to be turning defenses this Sunday

 

[Heyjoe4]

And CW is different than Lamar Jackson or Hurts. CW tends to just bust loose on instinct. He hurt us last year with his feet.

Exactly right. Hurts, Jackson and Allen will run through guys. CW will just outrun them. And it is based one instinct and a clear command of the field. He's a good QB, no doubt. We're just not used to seeing that in Chicago.

 

[milani]

Exactly right. Hurts, Jackson and Allen will run through guys. CW will just outrun them. And it is based one instinct and a clear command of the field. He's a good QB, no doubt. We're just not used to seeing that in Chicago.

The one QB that ran us silly in his early career was Michael Vick. I still have nightmares. By 2010, late in his career, we got more speed on defense and handled him.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The one QB that ran us silly in his early career was Michael Vick. I still have nightmares. By 2010, late in his career, we got more speed on defense and handled him.

He played for Atlanta, right?

I'm not sure what his arm strength/accuracy was like, but he ran like a scatback and he was built to withstand hits. Short career due to his personal problem with dog fighting.

 

[formerlybis]

I would have McDuffie or Cooper "spy" on Monangai and Montgomery on running downs.

Swift - I don't want anyone spying on a Lions RB on Sunday... (but we all knew who you meant).

Kaepernick devastated the Pack, too.

 

[gopkrs]

Swift - I don't want anyone spying on a Lions RB on Sunday... (but we all knew who you meant).

Kaepernick devastated the Pack, too.

We do?