Packers vs Bears: S103,E1

[RRyder]

Or as bad as their record. It can be discussed. And comparisons to other teams can be made. In the NCAA we have seen 12-0 or 13-0 teams meet. And when they do one will emerge as the winner. So when we say not as good or not as bad it is only relative to other teams that have the same record or a different record. So when saying not as good as their record indicates it is better to say that team is not as good as another team or teams with the same record. Now that is objective.

I appreciate the answer.

I simply disagree

Like the Lions are 7-5 and which comes out to be very mid for the NFC but thats a much better team then a 7-5 record would indicate and dont feel the need to simply lump them in with every other 7-5 team because thats simply where their record stands

But to each their own.

 

[milani]

I appreciate the answer.

I simply disagree

Like the Lions are 7-5 and which comes out to be very mid for the NFC but thats a much better team then a 7-5 record would indicate and dont feel the need to simply lump them in with every other 7-5 team because thats simply where their record stands

But to each their own.

Back in 2002 when the NFL boards were mostly AOL a Carolina Panther fan posted on our Packer board. We were playing the Panthers in WK 4. The Panthers were 3-0. Being humble the poster said that his Panthers were probably the worst 3-0 team in NFL history. I told him that if they keep up what they were doing they could also be the worst 16-0 team as well. He laughed and wished us good luck. Turned out the Packers won the game 17-14 at Lambeau. But Carolina had a chance to win or tie the game at the end. But they missed a chip shot FG giving us the victory. The Panthers finished the season 7-9 with 4 of their losses coming by a total of 10 points. In retrospect you may be right. Those Panthers were never as good as their record and we were fortunate to beat them.
I just hope those Bears that are not as good as their 9-3 record are as generous next Sunday.

 

[chemist]

Overall, we are #1 in the league right now in total EPA per play on offense. Chicago is #9.
We are #3 in EPA-success rate (plays with a positive EPA). Chicago #13
We are #1 in passing EPA; Chicago is #14
We are #4 in passing success rate; Chicago is #21
Chicago is #4 in rush EPA while we are #16
They are also #3 in rush success rate; we are closer but still behind at #7
In terms of total expected points contribution by the offense, we are #5 while Chicago is #10.

On the other side, we are #13 in defensive EPA per play while Chicago is #19
We are #9 in overall defensive EPA-success rate, Chicago is #25
Very close in defensive passing EPA. We are #17 and Chicago is #18
Similar to the overall, we are #9 in pass defense success rate and Chicago is #23
We are #6 in rush EPA; Chicago is #21
Our defense is #10 in expected points at roughly -21. Chicago's is #23 at -60. (That is indeed with all turnovers accounted for)
And finally, we are #12 in rush defense success rate while Chicago is #28.

When it comes to quarterbacks there's no contest. Love is THE #1 QB in the league in EPA per play. Caleb is 23rd.
Love is 5th in total QB success rate. Caleb is #27.
Love is #3 in CPOE... Caleb is #31.
Both QBs have an identical depth of target/attempted air yards.

Like just about every game we've had this year, this is one that we SHOULD be able to win. Whether or not that actually happens, who knows....

To make it ultra-simple...
If we play at our best and Chicago plays at their best... IMO, we win
If we play at our best and Chicago plays at their worst... we win, of course
If we play at our worst and Chicago plays at their worst... I don't know. That one's kind of a toss-up to me. Based on our worst performances this year, I would still give us the edge, Chicago has shown a lower "floor".
If we play at our worst and Chicago plays at their best... they win.

Wow Magooch you are really into deep dive data. Very logical approach to stats that may favor one team or another. Very well done.

I'm more of a big picture person when it comes to football.
What i see is that we have several division games ahead so we dont need to depend on other teams for help. The ball is totally in our court to win the division.
No doubt the bears will try to run the ball on us. The strategy to counter that is to do what we did vs the lions, get a lead and maintain it throughout. Eventually the clock will become their enemy, forcing them out of their run comfort zone .
I see us winning everyone of our remaining division games as long as MLF stays focused, and doesnt lose his way. Everyone knows what kind of offense to run to get the most out of our group. It was on display most recently vs the lions. Just stay the course and everything will fall into place .

 

[Pugger]

Just heard LVN is in a walking boot today. And says he isn't quite there yet.

What exactly is the issue with his foot?

 

[El Guapo]

What exactly is the issue with his foot?

I've heard that it's bad!

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You get a lot of gross pictures when you type "mangled foot" into the internet. I couldn't find any specifics on LVN's injury, but it has been a while. I doubt that it's a broken bone, and since they're saying foot and not toe or ankle my guess would be plantar fasciitis or a similar ligament tear/strain. It's been six weeks and sounds like it will be even longer.

 

[tynimiller]

What exactly is the issue with his foot?

I truly think he's got a hairline fracture or a certain type of injury that he's trying to find a way to play through it...no details have come out...but it has to be far more than just a sprain or such.

 

[El Guapo]

Arent they insane on turnovers right now? And squeaking out wins? Props to both. But how long can you dance on the edge of that blade? If GB can take care of the ball and play a decent game I think we handle them pretty comfortably… which unfortunately may mean needing a stop at the end up 4

Yes, their turnover margin is very good.

The thing about dancing on the edge of the blade, is that it is common practice to think that after the dance they will lose. However, they have an equally good chance at shoring up their weaknesses and becoming a good team.

Caleb's Revenge has been blowing hot air for two seasons about his team, because they were bringing in good players. The problem was that the coaching and management were the same which led to the same results. With Ben Johnson at the helm, they are now using those good players effectively and playing with passion.

Ben Johnson (and others of course) turned the laughable Lions into the best team in the NFC North. He is now on track turning around Chicago too.

 

[El Guapo]

I truly think he's got a hairline fracture or a certain type of injury that he's trying to find a way to play through it...no details have come out...but it has to be far more than just a sprain or such.

Each injury can be so different though. I played through a broken ankle my entire freshman year and only knew that it had been a break when I broke it in a different spot my sophomore year, and they pointed out that it had been broken previously. Conversely, in my mid-20s I sprained the same ankle so severely that I was in a cast for 6 weeks (with excruciating pain and swelling) and it took another 6-8 weeks before I could start light jogging again.

I point this out because it could be almost anything, but to your point, it is likely a pain tolerance thing. They put so much stress on their feet that it's imperative that it is 100% or close to it. If not, Packers fans will be booing him and criticizing his ability to play the sport. Just ask Jaire....!

 

[Pugger]

If we don't turn the ball over and minimize the penalties we should prevail. We have to control their running game too.

 

[OldSchool101]

What about the Bears takeaway advantage? It's +17, the next closest team has 8. They lead the league in INTs with 17. Next closest has 13. That doesn't impress you at all? That said, I'll still take our defense over theirs. The offense is more of a wash, unless we go into another funk.

It’s an interesting question. I listened to a discussion on that topic and can’t recall who it was? So I apologize you’ll have to take my word for it. Anyway their take was not positive on the subject. They thought that Chicago was reliant on winning games “because” of a singular component of the Defense. However. That component being turnovers can be highly susceptible to a flip switching. Suddenly you have a pair of games where you don’t go +1 or +2 and you hit an even 0 or -1 or -2. The entire dynamic changes was their contention.

It’s not negative itself to create turnovers or have ball security. Yet it’s the worst trait to rely on across the top 4-5 categories on Defense because it’s the hardest to retain control.

To be fair, we were in a slump too when the Eagles beat us. Our offense was very stagnant.

Amen. Coming off losing our TE1 in many seasons would hurt. However Tucker has become the focal point for MLF. It’s really hard to just pluck a guy like Tucker (or Anon Ra) and nit miss a beat that game or next game. I think his presence missing was going to affect the Offense for a couple of games. Thankfully GB doesn’t have a clear #1 and then nobody’s. We’ve gotta a bunch of #2’s and #3’s types to pick up slack.

 

[gopkrs]

I truly think he's got a hairline fracture or a certain type of injury that he's trying to find a way to play through it...no details have come out...but it has to be far more than just a sprain or such.

Sometimes these big guys put too much weight on their feet and it is more difficult to heal. I hope he has been careful

 

[OldSchool101]

If we don't turn the ball over and minimize the penalties we should prevail. We have to control their running game too.

I agree.
The Bears might have a decent day Rushing, yet I doubt it’s going to be 260 yards and all that. Even without Wyatt GB has a plethora of guys that are good against the run. Even the ur worst players (Dobbs) are good Run defenders.

(Might not come into play this meeting). However GB just got some positive news.
1. Marshawn Lloyd’s window is activated.
2. Colin Oliver was activate and while he might initially be relegated to Teams? Mark my words that I’m predicting his All Conference collegiate level TFL will translate near immediately. He’s a 5th rounder that in many Defensive drafts goes Top 100-125 area, If not for a super thick clump of Late Day2 D prospects. Highly underestimate crossover Pass Rush and a Box LB. He’s a souped up turbo version His film I saw showed a highly disruptive heat seeking missile. He’s decisively fast. Like a turbo LB/DE
version of DT Karl Brooks.

Also removed from IR/PUP is Brenton Cox Jr. Brenton silently was one of the most disruptive Packer Defenders after Week 11, 2024. I did a bit on him that showed his pace across 17 games and it was All Pro 2 level. If he regains form? This is a guy that will surprise people.

 

[El Guapo]

Also removed from IR/PUP is Brenton Cox Jr. Brenton silently was one of the most disruptive Packer Defenders after Week 11, 2024. I did a bit on him that showed his pace across 17 games and it was All Pro 2 level. If he regains form? This is a guy that will surprise people.

Lloyd is our new Justin Harrell. At this point he isn't really anything to think about unless he can move past the constant injuries. Oliver is interesting, but again I have no baseline.

Cox does excite me. I liked him from the start, and think that he can make an immediate impact. This isn't a rookie hopefully learning the system and becoming a bit contributor. He's a veteran that can produce when healthy. I hope that he goes on a terror.

 

[PackerRyche]

At the risk of repeating, I think the game comes down to two keys. 1) Keep the bears under 100 yards team rushing and, 2) in the battle of the irresistible force (Bears top takeaway team) and the immovable object (Packers lowest giveaway team), whichever team stays truest to form, wins.

 

[chemist]

At the risk of repeating, I think the game comes down to two keys. 1) Keep the bears under 100 yards team rushing and, 2) in the battle of the irresistible force (Bears top takeaway team) and the immovable object (Packers lowest giveaway team), whichever team stays truest to form, wins.

A very nice ,succint, counter balance summary.

I feel we may have the easier road. We dont need to do anything spectacular, just play our normal game on offense, put up the typical 25-30 points we have done the last 4 games while the bears on the other hand have to force errors out of us, which is something under our control if everybody does their job and we play a clean game.

 

[tynimiller]

Lloyd is our new Justin Harrell. At this point he isn't really anything to think about unless he can move past the constant injuries. Oliver is interesting, but again I have no baseline.

Cox does excite me. I liked him from the start, and think that he can make an immediate impact. This isn't a rookie hopefully learning the system and becoming a bit contributor. He's a veteran that can produce when healthy. I hope that he goes on a terror.

One of Llyod's biggest issues was appendicitis. Not necessarily even a typical football injury. Contribution is the same regardless so far, but I don't hold the "injury prone" curse of Harrell to him.

 

[Magooch]

Can already see it now, Lloyd's going to come back and pop off for 125 rushing yards, 75 rec yards, and 3 TD, and then do his knee and we won't see him again until next October

 

[Krabs]

The biggest thing this Bears team has vs last year:

- Better OL play, perfect no but they sucked so much last year that they overhauled it and it so far is working.

- Caleb not trying to play hero ball as much.

- The defense IS NOT that great BUT their turnover ratio is INCREDIBLE and we know well how creating turnovers can make a decent or even average defense a top defense.

I don't see how this lasts. They've played against a lot of bad QB's and the results have been turnovers. Yes, they did what they needed to do. Here's the QBs they've had the opportunity to pick. JJ McCarthy, Goff, Prescott, Geno Smith, Rattler, Huntley, Flacco, Dart, Rudolph... A lot of 2nd team guys or guys that shouldn't be starters. Again, I get it. They did what they should, but that's some easy picking. I don't think it keeps up. Without the turnovers, their defense is not good.

Our run defense is crucial here. I think LVN being able to go and go full is crucial to helping us handle the Wyatt loss cuz it will allow him to reduce in some, keeping Gary (good against run) and Parsons in more and likely us able to rotate Wooden, Brinson, Stackhouse and hopefully Brooks also in and rested.

LVN was in a boot yesterday. I don't think he is close to playing.

I truly think we win this one, but unlike the Bears have chock full of hard teams left….Bears to me just need to split with us and likely force us to have to run table

I feel good about the win here. Maybe I'm just blind and have recency bias.

 

[rmontro]

It’s an interesting question. I listened to a discussion on that topic and can’t recall who it was? So I apologize you’ll have to take my word for it. Anyway their take was not positive on the subject. They thought that Chicago was reliant on winning games “because” of a singular component of the Defense. However. That component being turnovers can be highly susceptible to a flip switching. Suddenly you have a pair of games where you don’t go +1 or +2 and you hit an even 0 or -1 or -2. The entire dynamic changes was their contention.

Sure, and hopefully that game will be Sunday and the Packers hold on to the ball securely, and we beat Chicago head on. But that doesn't change the fact that some teams are better than others at creating turnovers (I mentioned we had Charles Woodson before), and the Bears appear to be one of those teams.

 

[El Guapo]

JJ McCarthy, Goff, Prescott, Geno Smith, Rattler, Huntley, Flacco, Dart, Rudolph... A lot of 2nd team guys or guys that shouldn't be starters.

Your point is in general that they've faced bad QBs, but you cannot with any credibility lump Goff and Prescott in there as nobody's. You also conveniently left the SB MVP from last year off of the list.

Listen, nobody will dispute that the Bears have had a soft schedule during their streak, but you can't discount all of it. They've had some solid wins too.

The Packers have beat the good teams and struggled against (and lost to) the bad. The Bears beat 9 of the last 10 opponents on their schedule. I don't know why everyone wants to cut them down so far. They've played well. They aren't an unstoppable juggernaut but they aren't still the old Bears.

If people can't understand that, then they're mostly just looking at stats and highlights and not actually WATCHING the Bears games.

 

[OldSchool101]

Can already see it now, Lloyd's going to come back and pop off for 125 rushing yards, 75 rec yards, and 3 TD, and then do his knee and we won't see him again until next October

Better than nothing!!

Seriously though. My hope is he gradually gets ramped up until playoffs.
Lloyd is one of the more “complete” RB’s from last years class. The bulk of scouts had him graded above another dual threat by the name of Tyrone Tracey Jr for NY Giants. We all saw him come in and log 1,133 all purpose in a rookie season. THAT is what Lloyd is capable of.

Granted he’s 3rd on the depth chart. But that won’t last long once he explodes for a couple big gains. He has home run speed (4.46) but at 220lb. That’s notably faster than Blake Corum while carrying 15lb more. He’s a punisher.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

What exactly is the issue with his foot?

Feet are weird. You hurt part of the structural weight bearing parts. And they can never heal sometimes. So I'm guessing the GB doctors are on the side of caution , and save the comeback possibility for playoff time.

Of it was playoff time now, would he play?

I do know Savion Williams was hurt. Was coming back. Was seen in a walking boot. Played that week, and then missed the next week completely. Not sure if it was even related to the foot to be honest. But now he is coming back this week... Again. So the walking boot might not be a terrible thing. But doesn't look optimistic for a comeback this week.

Cox is coming back off IR too.... I don't want to get too optimistic. But LVN and Cox back in the rotation, giving Parsons and Gary time to recharge...Is going to pay dividends in pressure on the QB.

 

[Krabs]

Your point is in general that they've faced bad QBs, but you cannot with any credibility lump Goff and Prescott in there as nobody's. You also conveniently left the SB MVP from last year off of the list.

Listen, nobody will dispute that the Bears have had a soft schedule during their streak, but you can't discount all of it. They've had some solid wins too.

The Packers have beat the good teams and struggled against (and lost to) the bad. The Bears beat 9 of the last 10 opponents on their schedule. I don't know why everyone wants to cut them down so far. They've played well. They aren't an unstoppable juggernaut but they aren't still the old Bears.

If people can't understand that, then they're mostly just looking at stats and highlights and not actually WATCHING the Bears games.

I left them in there on purpose. I did want to show that they have played against some good opponents. I also gave them credit for beating the teams they should beat. I've watched several bear games. I have access to the Sunday Ticket. Mind you, I didn't pay for it, but have access. My overall point is that I think the Packers are a better team. We shall see on Sunday.

 

[El Guapo]

My overall point is that I think the Packers are a better team. We shall see on Sunday.

Oh, I definitely agree with you there.

The Bears have leveled up. Going into last week, the Eagles led the league with only 6 turnovers. The Packers were in 2nd place with 7. The Bears forced the Eagles into two turnovers.

While I believe that we are the better team, the Eagles felt that way too. We need to be careful of the turnover monsters of the midway.

 

[Krabs]

Oh, I definitely agree with you there.

The Bears have leveled up. Going into last week, the Eagles led the league with only 6 turnovers. The Packers were in 2nd place with 7. The Bears forced the Eagles into two turnovers.

While I believe that we are the better team, the Eagles felt that way too. We need to be careful of the turnover monsters of the midway.

They are number one in turnover margin and all the one score games they have had, are both hard to sustain. I don't think it is nuts to think they only beat the Browns and go 1-4 down the stretch. To your point, can't overlook them and can't turn the ball over.