Packers 2021 salary cap plan

thequick12

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According to Michael Silver the Packers are trying to negotiate a restructured deal with Rodgers to free up some cap space for next season. About time.

I found more people talking about how this is not nessicary if it's a simple restructure. Tom Silverstein from the jsonline...
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If they wanna add void years like they did to billy turners contract, that would need to be negotiated. Or if they wanted to do a real extension which I highly doubt with 3 years remaining on his contract. Or obviously if they wanted him to take a pay cut like p.smith. which is simply out of the question.

Now they may be trying to act with tact and talking to Rodgers about it. But there's absolutely no way that a team would sign a player to such a huge contract with out having a "simple restructure clause". Because once again simple restructures don't decrease the amount of money a player is paid but they can provide priceless salary cap relief and for that reason those clauses are standard in nearly all veteran contracts in which a restructure would be possible
 

sschind

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According to Michael Silver the Packers are trying to negotiate a restructured deal with Rodgers to free up some cap space for next season. About time.

I suspect that was the plan all along. Now next year they will have to figure out how to deal with his even higher cap number in 2022 and 2023

Using rough numbers from Over the Cap it looks like his salary is 14.7 million for 2021. Since vet minimum salary is about 1 million that means they can convert 13.7 million of that salary into a signing bonus split over three years (roughly 4.5 million per year) That means his cap numbers will go from 37.2 million to 28.2 million in 2021 (saves 9 million) In 2022 his cap number will go from 39.9 to 44.3 million and in 2023 it will go from 28.3 to 32.8. You will note that reducing his cap number in 2021 raises it in 2022 and 2023 even though the amount of money paid over the three years stays the same.

If they would have converted his roster bonus to signing bonus they could have had an additional 4.5 million to spend this year but it would have added 2.2 million in 2022 and 2023.
 
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On the face, restructuring Rodgers is rolling the dice into the future over of his current term.
I see a restructure as buying time on what’s likely a last decision with Rodgers (vs Love) and simultaneously reorganizing the Cap allocation among other players.

As an example, they may be looking at parting ways with a future QB trade etc.. (in which case his remaining guaranteed is the primary concern/although I recall the rules changed in like 2013-2014? to allow a non direct correlation of parting with dead monies for the seller). Additionally, we might be delaying in extending Rodgers in the event Love suddenly matures to expectation or not or Rodgers wanes or not etc.. (at worst his remaining guaranteed is overlaps on top of a Rookie deal or spread past 2023 if he’s extended). Time can be a healer as Rodgers guaranteed is dropping year to year also (in the event of departure).
Also correct me but the future years team Cap # isn’t set beforehand is it? There should reasonably be a future reset to get it back in line with recent cap de-flation.
This is simply a generic hypothesis of a couple reasons why it’s not so black n white is all.
 
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thequick12

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I suspect that was the plan all along. Now next year they will have to figure out how to deal with his even higher cap number in 2022 and 2023

Using rough numbers from Over the Cap it looks like his salary is 14.7 million for 2021. Since vet minimum salary is about 1 million that means they can convert 13.7 million of that salary into a signing bonus split over three years (roughly 4.5 million per year) That means his cap numbers will go from 37.2 million to 28.2 million in 2021 (saves 9 million) In 2022 his cap number will go from 39.9 to 44.3 million and in 2023 it will go from 28.3 to 32.8. You will note that reducing his cap number in 2021 raises it in 2022 and 2023 even though the amount of money paid over the three years stays the same.

If they would have converted his roster bonus to signing bonus they could have had an additional 4.5 million to spend this year but it would have added 2.2 million in 2022 and 2023.

They aren't getting rid of Rodgers prior to 2022 so that's irrelevant.

The only number that matters is his dead cap hit in 2023 which would go from about 2.8 million to just under 7.5 million. Clearly the front office wants to maintain the ability to trade Rodgers prior to 2023. Which I think they do with just 7.5 m dead and a cap savings of about 25 m if they should choose to go with Jordan Love in 2023
 

sschind

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They aren't getting rid of Rodgers prior to 2022 so that's irrelevant.

The only number that matters is his dead cap hit in 2023 which would go from about 2.8 million to just under 7.5 million. Clearly the front office wants to maintain the ability to trade Rodgers prior to 2023. Which I think they do with just 7.5 m dead and a cap savings of about 25 m if they should choose to go with Jordan Love in 2023

I'm not talking about dead cap numbers. I don't care about that. I'm talking about the amount of money that Aaron Rodgers counts against the salary cap. That's the only number that matters to me. With regards to a restructure the less he counts this year the more he counts in the future and the more he counts the less they have to spend on someone else. If we save 9 million this year by converting salary to signing bonus we will be have to add 4.5 million next year and the year after. If we have to add 4.5 million to Rodgers' cap hit next year then we have to cut 4.5 million somewhere else.

I'm not opposed to that I'm just aware of it. Some people seem to think we can just move his money from this year and won't have to account for it next year and the year after.
 

thequick12

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I'm not talking about dead cap numbers. I don't care about that. I'm talking about the amount of money that Aaron Rodgers counts against the salary cap. That's the only number that matters to me. With regards to a restructure the less he counts this year the more he counts in the future and the more he counts the less they have to spend on someone else. If we save 9 million this year by converting salary to signing bonus we will be have to add 4.5 million next year and the year after. If we have to add 4.5 million to Rodgers' cap hit next year then we have to cut 4.5 million somewhere else.

I'm not opposed to that I'm just aware of it. Some people seem to think we can just move his money from this year and won't have to account for it next year and the year after.

The way it works is we save 4.5 million this year while adding 4.5 million to cap number in 2022 and 2023. 2021 cap hit is 37.5 m would be 33.25 m. 2022 currently 39.85/44.35 post max restructure. 2023 28.35 m now 32.85 post max restructure.

So they'll have to do something again next season if they do the max restructure this year.

And for the record I get that the higher his cap number the less they can spend on other players next year. But if they're plan is to trade him prior to 2023, his cap number doesn't matter because you don't pay that on a player you trade. All you pay is that 7.25 dead cap or whatever it was. Thus thats the only number that matters in the end and the Packers seem to be worried about keep that number manageable
 

captainWIMM

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If the 21.5 million will count at some point, a fact no one is disputing, can you explain how cutting the cap number this year will not raise it in the future. If Rodgers cap number goes down this year it has to go up in the future and if the cap number goes up the Packers have less to spend on other players or in the case of 2022 the more money they will have to cut just to get under the cap.

As far as the rollover goes that only matters if we don't spend the money we save. If we restructure Rodgers' contract and save 10 million dollars and we spend that 10 million on another player we have nothing left to roll over.

That's the point I have been trying to make though. The Packers converting Rodgers' base salary into a signing bonus doesn't negatively affect the team's cap at all.

That would only happen if the cap savings this season are soend on a veteran, who would hopefully impact the team's chances of winning a Super Bowl though.

I suspect that was the plan all along. Now next year they will have to figure out how to deal with his even higher cap number in 2022 and 2023

Using rough numbers from Over the Cap it looks like his salary is 14.7 million for 2021. Since vet minimum salary is about 1 million that means they can convert 13.7 million of that salary into a signing bonus split over three years (roughly 4.5 million per year) That means his cap numbers will go from 37.2 million to 28.2 million in 2021 (saves 9 million) In 2022 his cap number will go from 39.9 to 44.3 million and in 2023 it will go from 28.3 to 32.8. You will note that reducing his cap number in 2021 raises it in 2022 and 2023 even though the amount of money paid over the three years stays the same.

If they would have converted his roster bonus to signing bonus they could have had an additional 4.5 million to spend this year but it would have added 2.2 million in 2022 and 2023.

Here's what I think the Packers should do to maximize the chances of winning another Super Bowl with Rodgers over the next two years.

As you mentioned correctly convert his base salary into a signing bonus resulting in the cap hit dropping to $28.1 million for the upcoming season.

Next offseason, once again convert his base salary of $25 million into a signing bonus, adding three void years in the process to reduce his cap hit to $25.3 million (down from $39.8 million) in 2022.

The team would take a dead money cap hit of $26.5 million by trading him in 2023, still saving $1.8 million of cap space compared to the cap hit he's currently scheduled to account for that season.

Also correct me but the future years team Cap # isn’t set beforehand is it?

Correct, the cap is set every single year based on revenue created.

Just wondering. Why don't you care about dead cap money?

The total cap hit allocated to Rodgers is the most important number to look at, dead money is just part of it.

The way it works is we save 4.5 million this year while adding 4.5 million to cap number in 2022 and 2023. 2021 cap hit is 37.5 m would be 33.25 m. 2022 currently 39.85/44.35 post max restructure. 2023 28.35 m now 32.85 post max restructure.

No, that's not how it works. The Packers would save a bit more than $9 million in cap space for the upcoming season while the prorated portion of the signing bonus for the next two years ($4.5 million for each season) would be added to the cap in 2022 and '23.

But if they're plan is to trade him prior to 2023, his cap number doesn't matter because you don't pay that on a player you trade. All you pay is that 7.25 dead cap or whatever it was. Thus thats the only number that matters in the end and the Packers seem to be worried about keep that number manageable

While that might be true in 2023 it definitely matters how much Rodgers counts against the cap in 2021 and '22 in the meantime.
 

tynimiller

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While I would slide say 7M or so into the hit in 2023 for Rodgers....anymore eliminates any concept or rationale to keep Love. If we see a restructure come through sending money into 2023, or an extension into 2024 for Rodgers - Love needs dealt asap.
 

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They're not going to deal Love any time soon. There is no other QB on the roster now that Boyle is gone. He's on a rookie deal, albeit a 1st round rookie deal, it's still about the cheapest back up QB plan we're going to get. And they obviously saw something they really, really liked. So, they aren't ditching him now. There is no point in it. There's hardly any value when nobody has seen anything from him at this level. The only way they move on from Love in a year or 2 is if Rodgers is still playing lights out, some UDFA or low round QB pick is blowing the doors off and replaces him as the back up so we decide to get what we can for him or in 3 years he proves he can't play at this level.

Otherwise we may as well get used to the fact that Love is going to be the back up on this team for the foreseeable future.
 

thequick12

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“If your attitude is, ‘We’re all-in on Aaron Rodgers and we’re just trying to make it happen while he’s here,’ that restructure should have already been done,” Silver said. “If you’re trying to split the difference and say, ‘Well, we’ll get some cap relief, but if we do want to go to Jordan Love after this season it won’t hurt us that badly,’ that is a disturbing development in a pattern that has gone on for a long, long time.”

Very telling quote from silver...whether they are just trying to do a simple restructure or add 2 void years (which I highly doubt Rodgers would do, without some security).

One thing is absolutely true they are trying to act with tact, walking on eggshells around their fhof qb who has been known to hold a stronger grudge than brett Favre could ever dream of...

*Just heard Jason Wilde wondering if Rodgers would say paraphrase, if you guys wanna do a simple restructure and not give me any real security beyond year to year so you maintain the ability to get rid of me when they want to. Wilde went as far to wonder if Rodgers will say if you don't give me security beyond this year to year I don't wanna play in green bay in 2021...
 

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Rodgers resurgence to excellence made the Love pick even worse and a year or two pre-mature in hindsight. Had it played out just like Favre to Rodgers it would have looked like sheer genius.

Now though, I think this is going to get ugly QUICK. Anything short of a big push to 2023 salary wise - sending message the team is committed to him clear through his contract - is going to get twisted massively to the mindset "Green Bay is moving on from Rodgers".

The more I think on it the more I truly believe there are only two options to not get this thing messy. You commit to Rodgers, eat the Love pick entirely keeping him squelched on the bench and accept it cost you two draft picks and got NOTHING of value in return for them.

OR

You commit to Rodgers and remove Love from the equation. Trade him for a 4th...a 5th even to a team in a position that graded him high last year, could use a cheap QB that could be the future for them (Patriots, Houston if move Watson, even Bears). Get something.


Doing nothing....or trying to restructure while keeping the obvious out from Rodgers will destroy this whole thing IMO
 

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That would be a complete admission of error in last year's draft. I don't think that the Packers front office considers it a mistake. It was intentional. Nothing has changed that would make them trade Love, unless they final got a close-up look at him in person and realized that he isn't a good enough QB.
 

sschind

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Just wondering. Why don't you care about dead cap money?

Dead cap money is already gone. It counts against the cap and you cant do anything about it. The only number that really matters is the cap hit. Dead money counts against that but it is not all that counts.

Lets Let you have an aging vet who has simply lost it. His cap hit for the last year of his contract is 25 million with a salary of 5 and a dead cap of 20 because you kept pushing money into the last year of his dwal to save money in the current years. Some people would say you can't cut him because you would have 20 million in dead cap and that too much money to eat. So you don't cut him and have the whole 25 million count or you cut him and save 5 million. Either way the dead money counts but by cutting him you have 5 million less of a cap hit.

Its like a sunk cost. If you spend 1000 fixing up your car but all of a sudden you find out something else is wrong and it will cost you an extra 3000 which is far more than the car is worth. Do you spend the extra 3000 just because you already spent the 1000 or do you say screw it, the 1000 is already gone I'm not going to dump in more.

I'm not saying dead money is not important and in general you want to keep it as low as possible but like I said, I think the overall cap hit and the money you could save by cutting a player is more important.
 

tynimiller

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That would be a complete admission of error in last year's draft. I don't think that the Packers front office considers it a mistake. It was intentional. Nothing has changed that would make them trade Love, unless they final got a close-up look at him in person and realized that he isn't a good enough QB.

That however is where we are. That pick, and Rodgers being better than most felt he would be has placed the front office in a spot it only gets muddy if they stay committed to Love succession plan. I mean sure they could commit to Rodgers, push cap hit and remove the easy out AND just let Love "rot" as the back up...that is what I think we are sliding towards honestly.
 

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If I'm the front office, I'm not making cap room if I haven't ID'd guys I need and am able to sign. I have something in place with Rodgers contract should the need arise. There is no hurry. If Rodgers wants to call it quits because he wants to pout, fine. He's no good to us anyway. BUT that is not the case. Rodgers will play like Rodgers regardless. The only thing that is going to make this team move on is if Rodgers isn't playing to the level he should. He has a very nice contract for himself. If he needs reassurances, then he needs to guarantee them for himself by playing like it and he'll have nothing to worry about.

The team does not need to rush to stroke an ego, not that I even think it is something he needs. I think it's more media driven than fact driven AGAIN. Who wouldn't like to be guaranteed their spot and a large sum of money? That doesn't mean he needs it or things go poorly. If Rodgers needs to be that petty as the media would like everyone to believe. As if he hasn't proven time and time and time again he's a professional and very damn good one at that, but just one more time IF Rodgers is that petty, he can make the FO looks like fools by playing at an MVP level every year and earning every penny he's inked to thru the remainder of this contract. Make it so they can't move on from you. Problem solved.

I would be on that scenario knowing Rodgers 1000 times before I'd bet on the one where he quits and pouts because he didn't get more guaranteed money in March and Love is still his backup.

and if I'm the FO, i'm not changing anything until the need arises. The signing of Jones and the restructuring of other players shows they're looking to keep it together. They have options but they need to be smart with them. If Rodgers isn't happy, then that's on him. Which again, I don't believe.
 

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That would be a complete admission of error in last year's draft. I don't think that the Packers front office considers it a mistake. It was intentional. Nothing has changed that would make them trade Love, unless they final got a close-up look at him in person and realized that he isn't a good enough QB.

I was about to say something similar but will add that the front office has backed themselves into a corner IMO. Extending Rodgers with additional years and more guaranteed money would be the same as admitting an error in using 1st & 4th on a QB when your future HOF starter is still playing at a high level. A dozen or more legitimate QB draft prospects will come & go in that time. If they push money around just for cap space it would be perceived as a vote of no-confidence in Rodgers. Converting the roster bonus to a signing was a middle ground and that ship has sailed.
 

thequick12

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Rodgers resurgence to excellence made the Love pick even worse and a year or two pre-mature in hindsight. Had it played out just like Favre to Rodgers it would have looked like sheer genius.

Now though, I think this is going to get ugly QUICK. Anything short of a big push to 2023 salary wise - sending message the team is committed to him clear through his contract - is going to get twisted massively to the mindset "Green Bay is moving on from Rodgers".

The more I think on it the more I truly believe there are only two options to not get this thing messy. You commit to Rodgers, eat the Love pick entirely keeping him squelched on the bench and accept it cost you two draft picks and got NOTHING of value in return for them.

OR

You commit to Rodgers and remove Love from the equation. Trade him for a 4th...a 5th even to a team in a position that graded him high last year, could use a cheap QB that could be the future for them (Patriots, Houston if move Watson, even Bears). Get something.


Doing nothing....or trying to restructure while keeping the obvious out from Rodgers will destroy this whole thing IMO

I was totally with you til the "or". But yeah I have been thinking since doing mocks last year and seeing Love staring at me at #30. Why not take him because you technically could let Rodgers play out his contract and still go to Love on his 5th year option. Obviously the best case was akways to trade Rodgers after 2022 ans let Love take over for the next 15 years...but even the 5th year option scenario allows you to still have a chance at 3 in a row.

As for trading Love now for 4th/5th. No way, absolutely not. He's far more valuable as a backup and a future trade asset. Why dump him now? After 2 pre seasons of good play he'll be worth much more or I should say he could be worth much more.

Yeah and they're obviously trying to just restructure him but even though they can do it without his permission they're not because they are scared of completely ruining the relationship and having Rodgers playing for the bears for the next 5 years just to spite them. You'd think the Packers front office wouldve learned something from the farve situation to avoid the same thing with Rodgers but I guess that's why they get the big bucks.
 

thequick12

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If I'm the front office, I'm not making cap room if I haven't ID'd guys I need and am able to sign. I have something in place with Rodgers contract should the need arise. There is no hurry. If Rodgers wants to call it quits because he wants to pout, fine. He's no good to us anyway. BUT that is not the case. Rodgers will play like Rodgers regardless. The only thing that is going to make this team move on is if Rodgers isn't playing to the level he should. He has a very nice contract for himself. If he needs reassurances, then he needs to guarantee them for himself by playing like it and he'll have nothing to worry about.

The team does not need to rush to stroke an ego, not that I even think it is something he needs. I think it's more media driven than fact driven AGAIN. Who wouldn't like to be guaranteed their spot and a large sum of money? That doesn't mean he needs it or things go poorly. If Rodgers needs to be that petty as the media would like everyone to believe. As if he hasn't proven time and time and time again he's a professional and very damn good one at that, but just one more time IF Rodgers is that petty, he can make the FO looks like fools by playing at an MVP level every year and earning every penny he's inked to thru the remainder of this contract. Make it so they can't move on from you. Problem solved.

I would be on that scenario knowing Rodgers 1000 times before I'd bet on the one where he quits and pouts because he didn't get more guaranteed money in March and Love is still his backup.

and if I'm the FO, i'm not changing anything until the need arises. The signing of Jones and the restructuring of other players shows they're looking to keep it together. They have options but they need to be smart with them. If Rodgers isn't happy, then that's on him. Which again, I don't believe.

I don't think it's more media driven...it was clear how mad Rodgers was on draft night. And again at the end of the season even though he tried to back track on his calculated post game comments. He doesn't want to just be dumped for jordan love clearly.

Remember this is the guy that held a grudge and still does against mike mccarthy for preferring Alex smith to him in the draft as a member of the 49ers staff

But bottom line you can say all you want if Rodgers wants to pout, if he needs his ego stroked, if blah blah blah. In the end though who do you want playing qb for the Packers at least the next 2 seasons?

And this is why Rodgers despite having 3 years left on his contract has all the leverage. If Love were ready to play this wouldn't be an issue. Since he's not and Rodgers knows this he's making his move at defending his position as the Packers qb through 2023
 

thequick12

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The total cap hit allocated to Rodgers is the most important number to look at, dead money is just part of it.

No, that's not how it works. The Packers would save a bit more than $9 million in cap space for the upcoming season while the prorated portion of the signing bonus for the next two years ($4.5 million for each season) would be added to the cap in 2022 and '23.
.

That's not true because in the situation we are talking about the Packers FO would like to maintain the flexibility to move on from Rodgers after the 2022 season with very little dead cap. Thus his total cap number doesn't matter because you won't be paying that you'll only be paying the dead cap number...

And correct I did poor math 13.7 - 4.5 is 9 not 4.5, oops wasn't paying attention
 

Poppa San

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As for trading Love now for 4th/5th. No way, absolutely not. He's far more valuable as a backup and a future trade asset. Why dump him now? After 2 pre seasons of good play he'll be worth much more or I should say he could be worth much more.
Also, people are forgetting that one season of the backup just doing kneel downs is uncommon, going 2-3 years is almost never heard of.

ETA: I said ALMOST because someone is sure to bring up the 1 or two that do it every few years.
 

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