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On Fox at the end of the game they said....

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by dimension, Dec 26, 2010.

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  1. dimension

    dimension Cheesehead

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    it was still possible we could miss out on the playoffs even if we beat the bears, something to do with strength of victory

    I can't find this confirmed anywhere and looking at it it seems wrong to me. Does anyone know?


    Also if three+ teams are tied then do the four games in common have to be the same 4 for all teams or can you win a tiebreaker by having a better record against 4 common teams which are different for each team you are tied with?
     
  2. packerbackerUGA

    packerbackerUGA Cheesehead

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    Yeah it has to do with the Strength of Victory, it would have to come down to some specific numbers for that to come in to play
     
  3. dimension

    dimension Cheesehead

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    any idea where I can find exactly what needs to happen so that this would happen?


    it seems to me our strength of victory is better than the giants, Saints and Bucs
     
  4. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Think it was stats inc that came up with it..

    Aikman said it isnt a real chance of happening
     
  5. packerbackerUGA

    packerbackerUGA Cheesehead

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    Here are some numbers after the 12/21 games. Not completely updated, but gives you a sense:
     
  6. packerbackerUGA

    packerbackerUGA Cheesehead

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  7. SpartaChris

    SpartaChris Cheesehead

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    It's patently false and was bad information.

    A GB win gives us a playoff spot. That's it.

    We also get in with a loss provided the Bucs and Giants lose too.

    We hold head to head tie breaker over Giants and strength of victory tie breaker over the Bucs based on our beating more quality opponents than they have.
     
  8. Packman Chant

    Packman Chant Lambeau West

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    Win = In.
     
  9. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    I trust guys over at Stat inc than 2 posters on a forum lol
     
  10. Texpackerfan

    Texpackerfan Cheesehead

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    Joe Buck said they would need an expert in the Pythagorean theorem (or something like that) to explain how it could not happen. The math nerd in me is really curious how it could happen despite how unlikely. Or at least what is the % of it happening.
     
  11. gatorpack

    gatorpack Cheesehead

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    yes all the teams we beat must lose and all of the teams tampa beat must win lol also tampa must beat the saints
     
  12. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Yup he said it

    Even if it is 1000000 to one PAck win and still miss playoffs, its still a possibility
     
  13. Texpackerfan

    Texpackerfan Cheesehead

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    That sounds pretty simple. Why couldn't Buck or Aikman say that?

    Obviously, it sounds like an EXTREME rare thing.
     
  14. Pat4DaPack

    Pat4DaPack Cheesehead

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    I just got very nervous lol.
     
  15. Crazy Packers Fan

    Crazy Packers Fan Cheesehead

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    I've tried playing around with the ESPN playoff machine, having all the teams we beat lose and all the teams either New York or Tampa Bay beat win. Even then I can't get a scenario where the Packers would miss the playoffs with a win.
     
  16. gatorpack

    gatorpack Cheesehead

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    I really dont think this it is possiable for us to win and not get in. I think someone was talking outa their @ss. We hold the first tiebreaker that we are not tied at and that is SOV so the only we lose is if the bucs some how win SOV but we are already so far ahead in SOV and beating the bears is just going to increase our SOV. Also the Bucs are DEAD LAST in SOV in the entire NFL #32..

    Maybe that outside chance they were talking about was if the bears were to somehow buy the NFL and just not allow us into the playoffs lol
     
  17. Crazy Packers Fan

    Crazy Packers Fan Cheesehead

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    I really think it was just Buck & Aikman looking at the tiebreakers and thinking that strength of victory was something so volatile that it could swing easily from one team to another. It really isn't that hard to figure out when you've got that playoff machine. For example, I played around with that machine last week long enough to figure out a scenario where the Colts could win a bye (it would have taken a combination of nearly 20 results to get strength of victory in their favor). But there aren't that many scenarios this week, and I don't think there's one that puts the Packers out as long as they win.
     
  18. bozo

    bozo Cheesehead

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    There are 2 teams that could be involved with us for a SOV tie breaker, New Orleans & Tampa...we own the tie breaker with the Giants because we beat them.

    GB SOV=.429
    NO SOV=.371
    Tampa SOV=.286

    These numbers move very little in ONE game...not to mention, NO will probably win the 5th seed based on their record.

    NOT GONNA HAPPEN

    They were idiots to even bring it up!
     
  19. felpasb

    felpasb Cheesehead

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    Actually if NO loses twice (@ATL and Vs. TB) we get the 5th seed with a win and would play Rams/Seattle. Best scenario the Packers so far
     
  20. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    someone called into the radio after the packers game and said they heard the packers could miss the playoffs with a win next week and the host had no idea what they were talking about
     
  21. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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  22. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Please LISTEN

    Troy and Joe said it came from STATS INC

    That place would not admit to something unless they were sure..

    Again its probably a 1,000,000 chance but as Joe and Troy said its still a chance

    I too have tried the playoff generator, on yahoo AND espn, cant get it to show me..

    Anyone EVER think teams could end in a tie? and would included POINTS scored?

    Not saying anyone is wrong, just trying to figure out what STATS INC came to that conclusion
     
  23. PackersRS

    PackersRS Cheesehead

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    Update: NFL now says Packers are in playoffs with win Sunday

    The update says that we WIN we're IN.

    The scenario where all the teams that we played lose and all teams that TB played win can't happen, because a lot of those teams play between themselves. PHI plays MN then DAL, MN plays DET, NYG plays WAS...

    The are only 2 matchups with such occurence (a team that BOTH GB and TB played, against a team that didn't play them). It's ATL vs CAR and ATL vs NO. And, after doing the playoff machine, even if ATL loses both games, we're still in with a win.

    So, Stats Inc. missed badly.

    Here's what I used:
    GB schedule: Packers.com | Season Schedule
    TB schedule: Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Season Schedule
    ESPN playoff machine: 2010 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios - ESPN
     
  24. PackersRS

    PackersRS Cheesehead

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    It's not about ties LTF.

    It's that everyone plays each other. Like I said, the only games that have teams that we faced playing against teams we didn't are the two I mentioned, and, even if ATL loses both, it doesn't impact.

    There are no games where teams that TB faced play teams that they didn't...
     
  25. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    ok so now that we know for a FACT they win they in, time to lock it?
     
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