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Mason Crosby: Keep or Good Bye?

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by Pokerbrat2000, Feb 25, 2016.

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  1. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    Last edited: Feb 25, 2016
  2. thisisnate

    thisisnate Cheesehead

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    keep
     
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  3. azrsx05

    azrsx05 Cheesehead

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    I say keep. That's not too bad considering we pay other guys on the team about the same that are way less productive
     
  4. Mondio

    Mondio Cheesehead

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  5. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    $3 mil, yes. $4 mil, no.

    There's only one PK in the league averaging $4 mil:

    http://overthecap.com/position/kicker

    As you can see, a $3 mil avg. would put him tied for 8th. with a fair bump over his last deal. 3 years/$9 mil, sold American. Otherwise, look elsewhere.
     
  6. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    IMO there are riskier investments the Packers could make in resigning one of their own or in the FA Market. Crosby worked through his terrible 2012 year and has become one of the top 10 Kickers in the league. Letting him walk is a scary proposition in my mind. How may games are decided by a field goal or even an extra point? I'm not sure I want the fate of a game in the foot of a rookie or journey man just to save money to roll over into 2017. I agree with HRE as far as his value goes, anything around $3 M works for me.

    Not going to look for it, but didn't we make the same mistake with letting Ryan Longwell or Chris Jacke go?
     
  7. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    I'm with you guys. 3M is fine, 4M is too much.

    These days, kickers have gotten so good it's not uncommon to get a guy late or undrafted who are very effective. I think Tucker and Walsh were one of the best in the league as rookies and both were either late or undrafted.

    But you can also end up with a dud and I agree a kicker has more sway on a game than their salary would indicate.
     
  8. JK64

    JK64 Cheesehead

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    Keep
     
  9. 7thFloorRA

    7thFloorRA Cheesehead

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    Keep. Lets not make this team worse. 3-4 mil is nothing since TT just rolls it over every year anyways.
     
  10. Twiddlemylobes

    Twiddlemylobes Fat Tuesday Orleans

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    Yeah, I'd keep him
     
  11. Packers907

    Packers907 Cheesehead

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    Keep, he's a solid threat.
     
  12. Poppa San

    Poppa San SB I trophy First of four Staff Member Moderator

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    Probably get outbid for him he we try to hold closer to 3 than 4m.
     
  13. TeamTundra

    TeamTundra Cheesehead

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    Definitely keep
     
  14. TeamTundra

    TeamTundra Cheesehead

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    Per Rob Demovsky the Packers have been negotiating with Mason Crosby's agent and
    MM expects the team to resign him without using the franchise tag.
     
  15. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    It's no surprise that he doesn't expect the Packers to use the franchise tag because it ain't gonna happen.

    The tag amount for kickers was $4.1 million last season, and the projections I've seen take it to $4.5 mil for 2016.

    With tag amounts having gone into the stratosphere, the only sane application of it is to tag an elite player to keep him out free agency with an expectation on both sides that it will be ditched for a multi-year deal before the season starts.

    Mason Crosby ranks 25th among active FG kickers at 79.7%.

    The last 3 years are the longest stretch of his career without an off year, and represent 3 of his 4 seasons at 80% or better. In skimming the cream, over those 3 years he hit on 85.7% which, if it were a career number, would rank him 5th. among active kickers. Excluding Crosby, there are 10 active kickers at 84.7% for their career, the difference being a statistically insignificant 1 additional missed FG over about 3 seasons, and we have not skimmed any cream for those guys.

    He's become a very good, consistent kicker, but he must take a discount for the risk of relapse. Paying him meaningfully more than a 10th. rank kicker is out of line. $3 mil per year is fair, right with Nick Folk and Matt Prater . Nick Folk is an apt comparison (up until his quad injury): inconsistent throughout his career until the last 3 seasons at 80% plus.
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2016
  16. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I´m in the minority here but I would prefer the Packers letting him walk and replace him with a late round pick to save the cap space.

    The Packers claimed Longwell off waivers from the Niners before the 1997 season to replace Jacke. After Longwell signed with the Vikings the team signed Dave Rayner to replace him who struggled during the 2006 season. Thompson then drafted Crosby in 2007.
     
  17. Half Empty

    Half Empty Cheesehead

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    That's a perfectly fine solution - until the new kid misses his first important kick. :)
     
  18. TJV

    TJV Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    That's right but before that Wolf spent a third round pick (#90) in the '97 draft on the "best" PK in the draft, Brett Conway to replace Jacke. Conway missed three "easy" FGs in the first preseason game and then (allegedly) worked so hard he strained a muscle in his leg and was put on IR and traded the next season.
     
  19. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Crosby has had his share of misses on important kicks as well, for example a terrible one with time running out against the Lions this season.
     
  20. CashInFist

    CashInFist Cheesehead

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    I mean seriously, just keep him, ok? lol
     
  21. Half Empty

    Half Empty Cheesehead

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    Sure, but what I was getting at is that most of us will jump on what's current, i.e., Mason would be out of our thought process, and it'd be time to jump all over the new guy, along with the "see, I told you we should have kept Mason (even though he/she didn't)".
     
  22. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    Last edited: Feb 26, 2016
  23. Curly Calhoun

    Curly Calhoun Cheesehead

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    Keep. Good kickers are hard to find, and are often the difference between winning and losing.
     
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  24. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Crosby is ranked 22nd in field goal percentage since the start of the 2013 season with several kickers playing in cold weather as well having a higher success rate than him. I'm not convinced it's that difficult to find another one capable of making 85% of the FG attempts.
     
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  25. CashInFist

    CashInFist Cheesehead

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    Who can make them when it matters most? How does Mason Crosby do in that category? That should tell us all we need to know, imo.
     
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