lets be optimistic for a change....

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

Why are we talking about the 9'ers? are we playing them in the next 7 weeks?

Didn`t you read the correlation coefficient ya dipstick ??,

 

[Mklangelo]

It feels to me like you are trying really hard to play the role of anti-homer. The Packers have to beat who the NFL puts in front of them. Take a look around the NFL at standings and schedules. There's so much parody it's not even funny and no one team shows they played am amazing schedule and is head and shoulders above the rest.

A person can take the glass half full approach or glass half empty approach. The Vikes that the Packers crushed very well might not be as bad as people think. They beat a Rams team that Seattle and San Fran lost to. The Bears beat the Niners as well and yet the Pack beat them easily twice. The Lions lost to the same Panthers team that the Packers btch slapped and yet many of the same talking crap about the Packers on these things hail the all might Lions.

I am optimistic the Packers will make the playoffs. Either by getting past Detroit or a Wild Card.

I'm pretty sure the teams we meet in the playoffs

Obviously it was to support the fact that 3rd down conversion % has little to do with TOP. Did you even read the context?

How do 3rd down conversions have nothing to do with TOP if the opposing team gets another set of downs when YOUR offense should be on the field lengthening its TOP but yet your defense is still out there and THEIR OFFENSE is out there lengthening its TOP?

I'm not arguing here for the importance of the Stat, I'm just sayin'...

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Please consider: the Niners have a higher defensive 3rd down conversion % than we do and they're 2nd in TOP. There are several factors that figure into TOP and 3rd down conversion % is only a very minor factor. A factor with a FAR greater impact on TOP is plays per drive. Packers are averaging 5.54 plays per drive this year, which ranks 19th. Usually a PPD average that low is associated with a poor offense, but in the Packers' case, it's because we score QUICKLY.

Using the stats available on TeamRankings.com and SportingCharts.com I decided to run the numbers to determine correlation. The correlation coefficient between TOP and plays per drive is 0.641, which is a very strong correlation. The correlation coefficient between TOP and defensive 3rd down % is only -0.192, which ranks as negligible to very weak.

So basically, any complaint regarding the Packers' TOP this year is a complaint regarding how efficiently our offense operates. And that is precisely why TOP is a non-issue where this team is concerned.

The defense rests, Your Honor.

There are several factors to why the Packers have a poor average time of possession (which actually is a way overrated stat). First of all the offense is dead last in the NFL in total drives and middle of the pack in plays per and time elapsed per drive. In addition the defense allows the second most plays per drive and the fourth most time elapsed per drive.

The Packers offense doesn´t need a lot of possesssions though as they´re fourth in the league in yards per drive and second in scoring percentage and first in TD percentage.

 

[PikeBadger]

The Packers offense doesn´t need a lot of possesssions though as they´re fourth in the league in yards per drive and second in scoring percentage and first in TD percentage.

This puts an immense amount of pressure on both the opponents defense, and as such, their offense. Every opposing coach knows that if they let our offense get in a groove, they could get blown out quickly. I suspect we are going to see teams implement new defensive wrinkles early in games in an attempt to disrupt our offensive rythym. The upcoming opponent DC's are not going to enjoy watching tape of us.

 

[NOMOFO]

This puts an immense amount of pressure on both the opponents defense, and as such, their offense. Every opposing coach knows that if they let our offense get in a groove, they could get blown out quickly. I suspect we are going to see teams implement new defensive wrinkles early in games in an attempt to disrupt our offensive rythym. The upcoming opponent DC's are not going to enjoy watching tape of us.

It also puts pressure on Rodgers to not miss many passes and our receivers to not drop many. That's something that happened against the Saints. Just a couple missed opportunities and we can find ourselves in trouble. I remember the season that James Jones was dropping balls. The guy just flat out killed us in a couple games by dropping big 3rd and 4th down passes. Those are game changers. I have complete faith in Rodgers to very seldom be off. I have complete faith in Jordy and Cobb to seldom drop any. Hopefully the rest of the gang will get more and more chances to prove themselves.

 

[GoPGo]

How do 3rd down conversions have nothing to do with TOP if the opposing team gets another set of downs when YOUR offense should be on the field lengthening its TOP but yet your defense is still out there and THEIR OFFENSE is out there lengthening its TOP?

When did I say "nothing?" I said "little."

 

[Mklangelo]

When did I say "nothing?" I said "little."

Well, first of all, I do see how that TOP stat can be over emphasized.

But, other than a turnover, I'm not aware of any way of getting your D off the field and your Offense back on other than stopping the other Offense on 3rd or 4th down.

That's all.

 

[GoPGo]

Well, first of all, I do see how that TOP stat can be over emphasized.

But, other than a turnover, I'm not aware of any way of getting your D off the field and your Offense back on other than stopping the other Offense on 3rd or 4th down.

That's all.

But it's already been shown that there is very little correlation between 3rd down conversion and TOP. The whole point is that in the case of the Packers, the reason our TOP is on the low side is because we score so quickly.

That's pretty much the size of it.

 

[Mklangelo]

But it's already been shown that there is very little correlation between 3rd down conversion and TOP. The whole point is that in the case of the Packers, the reason our TOP is on the low side is because we score so quickly.

That's pretty much the size of it.

You're just going to have to explain to me how getting your defense off the field and getting your offense back on it has no correlation to TOP.

It makes absolutely no sense. Like I said, other than a turnover, there IS no other way to get your D off and your O back on the field other than a stop on 3rd or 4th down.

Well of course there is letting the other team score. But that's not really a viable technique, now is it?

Now once your offense is on the field, that's an entirely different discussion. And then, in the Packers case and their often demonstrated ability to score somewhat quickly (at least against sub-par teams), it is in those cases that TOP doesn't matter.

But the Defense had better be able to STOP other team's offense and GET Rodgers back on the field. Period.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

But it's already been shown that there is very little correlation between 3rd down conversion and TOP. The whole point is that in the case of the Packers, the reason our TOP is on the low side is because we score so quickly.

That's pretty much the size of it.

While it doesn´t take the Packers a lot of time to score points there are 16 teams in the league with fewer time elapsed per drive in the league. The defense not getting off the field is a huge factor in the Packers low time of possession total.

 

[NOMOFO]

Well, first of all, I do see how that TOP stat can be over emphasized.

But, other than a turnover, I'm not aware of any way of getting your D off the field and your Offense back on other than stopping the other Offense on 3rd or 4th down.

That's all.

Fact is, the Packers have had many huge third and 4th down stops this year. The defense has not been great to say the least all year, but they have been very good at times, including some of the most important times all year.

 

[GoPGo]

You're just going to have to explain to me how getting your defense off the field and getting your offense back on it has no correlation to TOP.

It makes absolutely no sense.

It's actually very simple. I don't have time to teach you basic statistical analysis (I'm sure there's a community college close where you can take a class) but all you need is two data sets. Convert each team's TOP to seconds for the first data set(x) and then put their defensive 3rd down percentage for the second data set(y). Then you run a Pearson Correlation Test and it will tell you, unequivocally, how much relation there is between the two sets of data. The fact of the matter is, for whatever reason, that 3rd down conversion % has little to do with overall TOP in the NFL and plays per drive has a LOT to do with it. Feel free to run the data yourself. There are dozens of calculators to do this.

Another thing you need to keep in mind is how much no-huddle offense we play. How many no-huddle teams do you think have a high TOP when the goal of a no-huddle offense negates that?

This deep concern over TOP that some have is so ludicrous within the context of what the Packers do I'm not wasting any more time on it. As I said before, some will look for ANYTHING to complain about. I would be willing to bet if we won the Super Bowl, there would be some people on this forum complaining about something. Someone would complain about the other team having more yard on offense, or more sacks, or more first downs. Some people just can't be happy with a win. It has to be total and complete domination over every statistical category or we "didn't deserve to win and got lucky."

 

[GoPGo]

While it doesn´t take the Packers a lot of time to score points there are 16 teams in the league with fewer time elapsed per drive in the league. The defense not getting off the field is a huge factor in the Packers low time of possession total.

The Packers usually snap the ball with 7-10 seconds left on the play clock. If we were to let the clock run to nearly zero before snapping the ball then we would be on the plus side of TOP. So therein lies your gripe. Tell MM to ditch the no-huddle because it's costing us in the TOP battle.

It's the same reason the Eagles are 31st in TOP. BTW, the Eagles are also 12th in defensive 3rd down percentage, so if 3rd down percentage is so critical to TOP, why aren't they in the top half of the league?

 

[GoPGo]

You have done absolutely nothing to reinforce your original point but regurgitate some obsure crap you might have learned in college.

So basic statistical analysis of data which is used every day in science and engineering is "obscure crap?"

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The Packers usually snap the ball with 7-10 seconds left on the play clock. If we were to let the clock run to nearly zero before snapping the ball then we would be on the plus side of TOP. So therein lies your gripe. Tell MM to ditch the no-huddle because it's costing us in the TOP battle.

It's the same reason the Eagles are 31st in TOP. BTW, the Eagles are also 12th in defensive 3rd down percentage, so if 3rd down percentage is so critical to TOP, why aren't they in the top half of the league?

I´m not complaining about the lack of time of possession as the only thing I really care about is winning.

The reason I´m still talking about it is because you don´t seem to understand the relevance of a defense being able to get off the field on third downs. There are several other factors as well but taking the ball away from the other team and giving it to your offense results in more TOP.

 

[GoPGo]

I´m not complaining about the lack of time of possession as the only thing I really care about is winning.

The reason I´m still talking about it is because you don´t seem to understand the relevance of a defense being able to get off the field on third downs. There are several other factors as well but taking the ball away from the other team and giving it to your offense results in more TOP.

I do understand the importance of getting your own offense back on the field. And at a glance, one might think it has a big impact on TOP. It seems to make sense, right? I didn't know for sure if it did or not, so I let the math do the talking. But the fact is, for whatever reason, it doesn't. It's a very small factor. If you rank every team by TOP and then rank them by third down %, there's not much overlap. The strongest factor I was able to find was plays per drive, which is a very strong correlating factor.

Now obviously, a strong correlation does not equate to causation, but it certainly can rule out causation such as the case with defensive 3rd down %. I'm not sure why. But the great thing about statistical analysis is that it lets you know when further investigation is required regarding what was once a foregone conclusion. So instead of arguing against the data, you ask yourself, "Why might that be?"

For starters, I would suspect if you have a very poor defense, your opponent might not see very many third downs to begin with, whereas a good defense, even if they allow a slightly higher percentage be converted, would force opponents into more third down situations.

Here's another strong possibility. What do most teams try to do in the 4th quarter when they're ahead by 3 scores? They run the clock. Teams will frequently run the ball 3 times in a row - even on third and long, and even the worst defenses are able to stop a pretty high percentage of 3rd down plays when they know the play is going to be a run and they stack 8 in the box. Would that not pad that 3rd down % statistic?

Now on the other side of that same coin, what do teams often do on defense when they have a 3 score lead? They guard the sidelines and drop an extra DB or two into coverage. So what happens? They're content to let the team that desperately needs 3 touchdowns throw the little **** and dunk passes over the middle. And while that might mean they give up some first downs late in the game, it also means the clock continues to run. Clearly, 4th quarter play can skew that 3rd down % statistic up for bad teams and down for good teams.

So now we have a new hypothesis we can test. If 3rd down % does not correlate well to TOP, what if we took the 4th quarter out of the equation? I suspect there would be a stronger correlation there, but I'm not saying that's the case either because I have not tested it. The bottom line here is that overall 3rd down % for a full game is not a good predictor of overall TOP for a full game.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I do understand the importance of getting your own offense back on the field. And at a glance, one might think it has a big impact on TOP. It seems to make sense, right? I didn't know for sure if it did or not, so I let the math do the talking. But the fact is, for whatever reason, it doesn't. It's a very small factor. If you rank every team by TOP and then rank them by third down %, there's not much overlap. The strongest factor I was able to find was plays per drive, which is a very strong correlating factor.

Well, the top three teams in defensive third down percentage are in the top six in TOP. There are some examples though where there is obviously no correlation between the stats.

So now we have a new hypothesis we can test. If 3rd down % does not correlate well to TOP, what if we took the 4th quarter out of the equation? I suspect there would be a stronger correlation there, but I'm not saying that's the case either because I have not tested it. The bottom line here is that overall 3rd down % for a full game is not a good predictor of overall TOP for a full game.

There's not a whole lot of difference in third down percentage when taking the fourth quarter out of the equation, not sure about TOP as I can't find any information about that.

 

[JBlood]

Football Outsiders again has interesting stats on offensive and defensive drives. According to their numbers, our defense currently ranks 31st in plays/drive; 30th in yards/drive; 30th in TOP/drive and 17th in points/drive. Drive Success Rate (percent of drive series resulting in 1st downs or touchdowns) we rank 28th. We are currently excelling in turnovers/drive, where we rank 3rd; and in points/red zone where we rank 5th.

Detroit, with the no. 1 defense overall, ranks 1st in yds/drive, 1st in points/drive, 2nd in TOP/drive, 3rd in DSR, and 5th in plays/drive.

So, while scoring defense is most important, the best defense in the league does that by limiting drives. We're a little worse than average in scoring defense, only because of turnovers (much of which is luck), and better play in the red zone.
We've got a long way to go to be a dominating defense.

Note: look here for a column on randomness associated with turnovers, written by a Packers fan: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...column-turnovers-and-unpredictability-defense

"A defense's tendency to force turnovers is fairly important to the team's success, but it seems to be even more unpredictable. In general, a team's ability to force fumbles seems to be almost entirely luck. There is a little bit more persistence in a team's ability to force interceptions, though it isn't clear how much of this ability is just a residual effect of general defensive ability." Jim Armstrong 4/22/014

 

[Pkrjones]

OK, with THAT impressive win over the potentially playoff-bound Eagles I'm feeling a LOT more optimistic about Packer playoff chances. Here's Yahoo's playoff generator which allows you, the optimistic (or pessimistic) fan to make your win/loss picks for EVERY game from week 13 on and see the playoff ramifications.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=WinningPct

 

[JBlood]

Here's Yahoo's playoff generator

You don't need the generator if the Packers continue to dominate both lines. That's how you win football games.