Let’s have a serious conversation…aka ditch Anders

PikeBadger

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No matter who is kicking, we will not improve without a better option at long-snapper. That was a consistent problem last season that many people are conveniently overlooking when assessing Carlson. I don't care if it's Joseph, Carlson, or the ghost of Vince Lombardi out there. We will still have problems if snaps are not coming in perfect every time.
Fire Orzech!
 

Pokerbrat2000

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A kicker can spot the PAT where he wants.
See! Now YOU have pinpointed the problem!

Anders has been spotting it all wrong! ;)

I always wonder if kickers let up a bit when it comes to XP's? "It's just a chip shot and only worth 1 point" after all.

It would also be interesting to look at what happened before each of the missed XP's. Was it a quick "unexpected" score and Anders had to suddenly get up from the bench, come in a bit cold and kick? We all see the kicker on the sidelines warming up when it appears he may be coming in for a FG try, but what about an XP?

Just for S & G's I looked at the Cowboy game, since Anders missed an XP in that game. Below is the screen shot. His miss came after a 10 play, 93 yard, 5:44 drive, so he should have been ready. Then immediately after that, Savage has a 64 yard pick 6 and Anders makes that XP. I also noticed that the Cowboys kicker, Brandon Aubrey, who was money most of the season, missed an XP after an 11 play, 88 yard drive. So no rhyme or reason with either kicker in that game.

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Pokerbrat2000

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Maybe some of these kickers should choose that option moving forward. I very seldom have seen a kicker attempt a PAT from the hash marks.
Or have Anders and Whelan line up 20 yards further back....will give the holder time to catch and spot the ball correctly, before the defense can come in and block it. :coffee:
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Me thinking about this suggestion....
Obviously, I was joking, or was I?

Well, an XP is basically a 33 yard FG. Anders was a perfect 14 of 14 on his 30-39 yard FG attempts. As well as 6 of 6 from 20-29 yards.

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Poppa San

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It would also be interesting to look at what happened before each of the missed XP's. Was it a quick "unexpected" score and Anders had to suddenly get up from the bench, come in a bit cold and kick? We all see the kicker on the sidelines warming up when it appears he may be coming in for a FG try, but what about an XP?
I actually thought a quick score was the issue during the season. I never bothered to research it though.
 

Schultz

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It seems like kickers across the league are more accurate at FG's inside 40 yds than they are at PAT'S. Could it be because FG's are on the hashes and PAT'S are in the middle of the field? Joseph 62/63 inside 40, yet has missed 16 PAT's... Carlson was 20/20 on FG's inside 40, yet missed 5 PAT'S.
IMO it is because all XPs are from the same spot. A 20 yd. FG counts as much as a 39 yd. FG when figuring the %. You could test this by comparing a kickers FG % from 30-40 yds. vs. his extra point %. I would be interested in the outcome, just not interested enough to do it myself.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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I actually thought a quick score was the issue during the season. I never bothered to research it though.
Well he made the XP right after the Savage pick 6. That would be about as quick/unpredictable of a time during the 2023 season, that he would have had to suddenly rush in for an XP.

I remember reading about a kickers routine/ritual that he went through before every kick, to become the successful kicker that he was. Maybe Anders does or doesn't do this. If he doesn't, maybe he should try it.

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IMO it is because all XPs are from the same spot. A 20 yd. FG counts as much as a 39 yd. FG when figuring the %. You could test this by comparing a kickers FG % from 30-40 yds. vs. his extra point %. I would be interested in the outcome, just not interested enough to do it myself.
Not sure what's missing from the post to which you replied, but since Carlson was 100 inside the 40 on FG (including playoffs), he was 100% from 30-40. His XP numbers were 87.2% (34/39) in the season and 87.5% (7/8) in the playoffs.
 

Schultz

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Not sure what's missing from the post to which you replied, but since Carlson was 100 inside the 40 on FG (including playoffs), he was 100% from 30-40. His XP numbers were 87.2% (34/39) in the season and 87.5% (7/8) in the playoffs.
The post was talking about kickers in general, not Anders specifically. Good to know someone else is as lazy as I am.
 

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The post was talking about kickers in general, not Anders specifically. Good to know someone else is as lazy as I am.
When I saw "comparing a kickers", I didn't make the connection to all kickers. That would be 89.1% for that type of FG and 94.2% for XP.
 

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Thanks. This all started with what now seems to be the inaccurate premise in post #123.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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This was interesting. Appears the data used is from 2010 until Oct. 2023.

If you evaluate kickers using this data and "expected makes", then as far as FG's go, Anders was the 10th "best" FG kicker in the NFL last season. Joseph was 17th.

 

Thirteen Below

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This was interesting. Appears the data used is from 2010 until Oct. 2023.

If you evaluate kickers using this data and "expected makes", then as far as FG's go, Anders was the 10th "best" FG kicker in the NFL last season. Joseph was 17th.

And by that metric, Carlson is an above-average FG kicker. Very interesting.

Also interesting to note that (other than Butker) most of the best kickers are on some of the worst teams in the league.

It says Joseph was 18th, though, right?
 

Schultz

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This was interesting. Appears the data used is from 2010 until Oct. 2023.

If you evaluate kickers using this data and "expected makes", then as far as FG's go, Anders was the 10th "best" FG kicker in the NFL last season. Joseph was 17th.

1. If I read this correctly those stats are only thru week 6 last season.
2. What is, and who decides what the threshold is for an expected make? Is it over 50%, 65%, 75%, 90%?
 

Pokerbrat2000

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1. If I read this correctly those stats are only thru week 6 last season.
2. What is, and who decides what the threshold is for an expected make? Is it over 50%, 65%, 75%, 90%?
Maybe I'm wrong, but I thought the data was from 2010 through when the article was written. Not sure how you could conclude it was only 6 weeks of data, given the numbers.

Now if you are asking if the "rankings" for 2023 was based on 6 weeks of data, I'd say "yes", given the date of the article. Not to mention it states:

"Using the above numbers as baselines, we can now more accurately assess the performance of NFL kickers through Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season."


The expected threshold for makes, is based on those 23 or so years if actual data.
 
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Schultz

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Maybe I'm wrong, but I thought the data was from 2010 through when the article was written. Not sure how you could conclude it was only 6 weeks of data, given the numbers.

Now if you are asking if the "rankings" for 2023 was based on 6 weeks of data, I'd say "yes", given the date of the article. Not to mention it states:

"Using the above numbers as baselines, we can now more accurately assess the performance of NFL kickers through Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season."


The expected threshold for makes, is based on those 23 or so years if actual data.
I never said it was 6 weeks of data. You said he was the 10th best FG kicker in the NFL last season in your post #138. I only pointed out he was the 10th best FG kicker thru week 6. Who knows where he ranked for the season. Again, I ask, what % based on those 23 years of data makes a kick an expected make?
 

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No guarantees. Just think there must be a kicker out there in the college ranks that would be worth a look see and a late draft pick. The kicker from Missouri was impressive. We have scouts. Some of them should be given the task of looking for a kicker. Not exclusively. Just don't want to be stuck with inconsistency come the regular season. I hope he turns it around for us. Don't want to be holding my breath on every kick.

Be it Crosby, Longwell, Stenerud, Marcol, Jacke, et al I think I've always held my breath on kicks.
 

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