49ers Scouting Report from a Niner fan...

milani

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Greetings Packer fans. No smack talk here. I enjoy having good football conversations with fans of opposing teams. I'm not going to break down the entire game as you Packer fans clearly know your team much better than I do. This is just a post about the team you face saturday. I'll try to be biased free...but I am a Niner fan so it's not possible to be completely biased free.

1) Kaepernick/Smith: Don't let their similar stats fool you. Even tho their stats seem comparable, they are TOTALLY different QBs. Kaep throws 27% of his passes more than 15 yards in the air (2nd in the NFL). Alex throws it more than 15 yards 13% of the time (39th in the NFL). According to PFF (Pro Football Focus) Kaep is the second best downfield passer in the NFL (completes 57% of his 25 plus yard passes with 5 TDs and 1 INT through 7 games). Alex....well....doesn't. LOL. Alex is more experienced and not apt to making young QB mistakes as peeps would assume that Kaep is....but so far Kaep has avoided those mistakes. They hav thrown the exact same number of passes and Kaep has thrown 3 INTs to Alexs 5. Yes, Kaep has some good wheels, but its what hes doing with his head and arm that have fans in SF excited.

If any of you are curious about him, below is a highlight reel.

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IMO Rodgers is the best QB in the NFL and it ain't close. I knew he was good up the road here at Cal. Mike McCarthy was the OC in SF when the Niners passed of Rodgers and took Smith. I've never seen a guy benefit more from making the wrong decision. ;-)

2) Defense: This also isn't the same defense the Packers faced in the first game of the season...and I mean that in the Packers favor. Justin Smith will be back, but he won't be 100%. Aldon Smith hasn't had a sack in 3 games since Justin was hurt, but alot of that is that Brady got the ball out quick, Wilson did his Tarkenton impression, and the Cards....well...no excuse for that...lol. He had been nursing a bad shoulder tho. The Niners are VERY deep at corner with Rogers, Brown, Culliver (Nickel back may be their best), and Cox. They are all also very physical. Expect the 49ers to rush 3 or 4 for most of the game and play a "big nickel" until the Pack run them out of it. Thats the key...The Packers have to get the 49ers out of the Nickel. If they can do it, their chances go up dramatically. They weren't able to do it in week 1, but clearly both of these teams are very different from the last time they played.

3) Run game: The Run game has changed as well. The Niners probabl.y have the best O-Line in the NFL when it comes to run blocking. All 5 members are Pro Bowlers (Staley, Iupati) or Alternates (Davis, Boone, Goodwin). However, they have fallen from the 1st ranked run O to the 4th over the last several weeks. There are a few factors: First, the loss of Kendall Hunter for the season was HUGE. It forced Gore to have to carry more of the load which was exactly what the 49ers were trying to avoid. Frank is the best RB is SF history, but he runs so hard that he wears down at the end of the year. Thankfully in recent weeks LaMichael James has stepped up his game and has become a viable threat. Second, Kaep is a better passer so the Niners are calling more passes. They have fewer "grind it out for 20 play" drives inder Kaep.

4) Kicker: You guys know all about kicking issues this year. LOL. Akers just revealed this week that he had surgery in Feb for a DOUBLE sports hernia. Ouch. It flared up again in the Saints game this year and he hasn't been the same since. The 49ers brought in Cundiff to compete with him but I wouldn't be shocked if they BOTH were on the roster. I'm just hoping this game doesn't come down to a FG.

5) Bye: HUGE. The 49ers needed time to heal. That doesn't guarantee anything, but the Niners NEEDED that bye in a big way

Anyway, I hope some of you may find this intersting. If not, feel free to ignore. ;-)
Excellent post!
16 games takes its toll on every team. Ironically, you beat us when we were at our healthiest.
I wish Akers started his slump in week one. That 63 yarder had an effect on the momentum.
Truthfully, few teams can match up with the talent of the 9ers across the board. How the Rams were the one team to baffle you twice in one season mystifies me. You have Pro Bowlers in the secondary, the LB corp, the DL, the OL, and the backfield. In week one your offensive line blew out our defensive line. And your defensive line blew out our offensive line. That spells defeat in most instances. We made it a game because of a punt return that could have been called back if they had called the right player for a block in the back. Our obvious coaching flaw in week one was that we played Jerrod Bush in our secondary who cannot cover his own grandmother. That has not happened since.
The way to beat the 9ers is a formula we struggle to achieve. The Giants went in to the Stick and played physical on both sides of the ball the way they played in 2011. But then they have Osi, Tuck, and co. up front. We are built around finesse and speed. So some magic will be needed.
 
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Marvin49

Marvin49

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You can go ahead with your faux stats, they don't mean crap.
1 collin kap has not played an entire season
2 Arod has had his primary WR's out for a combined 12 weeks
3 fact: Collin kap does not even come close to being in the same catagory as Arod

OK...I'm not sure how many different times or ways I can say this to make it clear....

I'M NOT COMPARING COLIN KAEPERNICK TO AARON RODGERS!!!!!!

READ THE ACTUAL POST BEFORE YOU REPLY.

Aaron Rodgers, in IMO, the best QB in the NFL. I've now said that about 20 times now. If anything, I'm only comparing Kaep to Alex Smith.
 

Oshkoshpackfan

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Post #29 of yours sure as hells looks to be posted for comparison purposes........tell us again why it wasn't?

Yeah, thought so.

#1 and #2 on your LIST are there for YOUR list in a comparison form......let that kid play an entire season.....
 

HyponGrey

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Losing Hunter, Kyle Williams, and Manningham was big for our offense because they played specific roles. We don't use a lot of 3 WR sets at all so its not because of that element. They both bbrought different elements to our offense and play-calling. When you have a QB like Rodgers, he can mask a lot of deficiencies offensively. Its harder on us, those injuries specifically because we're still finding our way as a offensive unit, with the QB change. Williams and MM had certain packages that they played in and played well. Hunter is better than James at this point. Better runner between the tackles and having patience and letting blocks develop. So from the outside looking in, it may seem like we're just missing some role players but their roles were significant in what we do. For a 4th WR, Williams was having a very good year. And despite his stature, was our best blocking WR outside of Crabtree. We miss that on those runs outside the tackles. All your WRs have retruned so its all good for you guys now. We're basically down to 3 WRs now because of course, Ginn doesn't count.

But its not about injuries really, its about team chemistry and consistency at this point and we've lacked in these two areas virtually the entire season. And its mostly come from the offesnive side of the ball. I don't even put the onus on the OC as most Niner fans have. Roman is part of a bigger issue. Its the whole OC by committee aproach that I think at times, has the offense dis-jointed and lacking a certain flow. JH has said he can veto any play-call and guys like Chryst have made calls in games before.This is a byproduct of his days at Stanford, where Roman would call the running plays and David Shaw was the passing coordinator. That type of committee approach may work at the college level but it just seems like a case of too many chefs in the kitchen this year.

We've lost our identity as a offensive team. Last year we were a physical, mauling offense in the trenches. Now we've slowly becoming a finesse team. We've drifted away from last year's mantra of protect the ball, time of possession, power-run team. Suddenly that wasn't good enough. And that was evident from the QB change. We wanted a more dynamic passing attack. Made a QB switch. Incoperated more "gadget/finesse" plays. More read option because of CK and spread looks to accommodate all these new weapons we have. We lost that smash-mouth mentality in the process. That phyiscalness we played with and put on display every game last year has been missing for extended periods of time this year, especially since CK has been the starter. That makes us more susceptible to getting out-physicaled, like we saw from the Giants and the 'Hawks. The Hawks did to us what we normally do to other teams. This offense has no real identity, even this late into the year. Most teams know who they are at this point. One drive, I think Chip Kelly is the OC. Next drive, it looks like its Marty Ball. There is no cohensive offensive flow to the play-calls....no identity to why we do, what we do, and when we do it. Its my biggest worry for this team, heading into our first playoff game.
I think your idenity crisis theory is right on the money, it's something I've noticed too.
 

CandlestickBum

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Excellent post!
16 games takes its toll on every team. Ironically, you beat us when we were at our healthiest.
I wish Akers started his slump in week one. That 63 yarder had an effect on the momentum.
Truthfully, few teams can match up with the talent of the 9ers across the board. How the Rams were the one team to baffle you twice in one season mystifies me. You have Pro Bowlers in the secondary, the LB corp, the DL, the OL, and the backfield. In week one your offensive line blew out our defensive line. And your defensive line blew out our offensive line. That spells defeat in most instances. We made it a game because of a punt return that could have been called back if they had called the right player for a block in the back. Our obvious coaching flaw in week one was that we played Jerrod Bush in our secondary who cannot cover his own grandmother. That has not happened since.
The way to beat the 9ers is a formula we struggle to achieve. The Giants went in to the Stick and played physical on both sides of the ball the way they played in 2011. But then they have Osi, Tuck, and co. up front. We are built around finesse and speed. So some magic will be needed.

One thing that nobody west of the Mississippi noticed this year is that the NFC West went from being the worst division in the NFC (and probably the NFL) to the best. I could not find the end of the regular season stats, so things might have changed, but last I looked they had the best record in the NFL playing teams outside their division.

St. Louis is not quite ready for prime-time, but they have a solid defense and a developing offense. The only team that beat them by more than two scores this season was the Patriots, and they defeated the 49ers, the Seahawks, and Arizona (in the starting weeks before Arizona imploded).

If they were playing in another division, they probably would have a winning record and might have even sneaked into a wildcard spot.

And everything else you said was spot on. St. Louis beat and tied us this season because they played very physically, knocked out our QB, did not give up yards easily, and were prepared to capitalize on every mistake that the 49ers made. To be honest, the team that concerns me the most is Seattle, because they are built like that.

The wild card round of the playoffs went pretty much as everyone expected, which means that the four teams left really are the elite teams, and any of them can beat any other remaining team any given Sunday. That being said, some teams measure up better against other teams.

For instance, I think overall Green Bay is a better team than Seattle, but I am a lot more concerned about Seattle than Green Bay, because they are like the Rams x2. They measure up well against the 49ers for all 4 quarters, but if we can get a good lead at the beginning, I don't see them having much of a chance at a come-back.

Green Bay, on the other hand, is a very different team. The 49ers should be able to get ahead early so long as the defense plays at 90% or better for the first three quarters. The 4th quarter against Green Bay will be dangerous, because with some luck, Rodgers is fully capable of coming back and winning the game, regardless of how far he falls behind. Now will he be able to do it? Probably not. But you can never count out teams like GB and NE in the 4th quarter, because with a little luck, they can move the ball all the way to the end zone in a minute or two, and they are the types of teams best in the position to capitalize on lucky passes.

But overall, I think the 49ers have shown the ability to beat offensively balanced teams like Green Bay a lot more than they have shown the ability to beat defensively balanced teams. Green Bay may be better than Seattle against the average team, but I think Seattle is a far more potent foe against the 49ers.
 
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Marvin49

Marvin49

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Post #29 of yours sure as hells looks to be posted for comparison purposes........tell us again why it wasn't?

Yeah, thought so.

#1 and #2 on your LIST are there for YOUR list in a comparison form......let that kid play an entire season.....

From that same post BEFORE the stats are listed...

"He is nowhere near Rodgers class right now. I'm not arguing that...but this isn't just some grand experiment. Kaep is both the present and future in SF.

EDIT: I looked it up...actually he is the BEST passer by Comp% of passes over 20 yards. Rodgers is number 2, tho I think he'd be #1 if not for the drops. Thats OK tho, I was never comparing them...I'm simply saying Kaep is better than peeps are giving him credit for."

Is that unclear?

Sometimes actually READING can be informative.
 
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Marvin49

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^ Sometime READING can be helpful to you too. Let the kid play an ENTIRE season, then compare. less than 1/2 a season a garbage way to compare

Nice change of topic.

The entire post was in response to someone calling Kaep a "grand experiment". That was the response.

At no point was I comparing Kaep to Rodgers. I was actually more comparing him to Smith...and both had the EXACT same number of attempts this season.
 

Oshkoshpackfan

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No topis change for me, again read !!!! I have mentioned that before. AND NOWHERE in that stat list did you mention or have a Alex smith stat included to compare Kap to Smith...LMAO...nice try on your part.
 
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Marvin49

Marvin49

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No topis change for me, again read !!!! I have mentioned that before. AND NOWHERE in that stat list did you mention or have a Alex smith stat included to compare Kap to Smith...LMAO...nice try on your part.

I don't need to "try" because I already know what I was talking about. I didn't mention Smith by name because I was talking to a previous poster who had essentially stated that the move to Kaep was a mistake and that he was a "grand experiment".

Dude.

You were wrong. Just accept it. You didn't know what you were talking about and now tried to make it about "half a season" BS that had nothing to do with anything I said.

Seriously. Walk away.
 

Oshkoshpackfan

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^ lol....nice try. This is our forum and you are telling me to "walk"...lol...step off your damn self. YOU were WRONG, you did a crap *** wannabe comparison and now you are trying to back track.......go away.....go back to your SF forum....you WONT find us there.

Isn't it lunch time out there by you? I'm sure you will feel much better after eating your cali vegan lunch and seaweed salads.....go away, semi-troll.
 
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Marvin49

Marvin49

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R
^ lol....nice try. This is our forum and you are telling me to "walk"...lol...step off your damn self. YOU were WRONG, you did a crap *** wannabe comparison and now you are trying to back track.......go away.....go back to your SF forum....you WONT find us there.

ROTFLMAO

I'm not telling you to get off the FORUM. I'm telling you to walk away from THIS CONVERSATION.

Again...Don't need to TRY. I was responding to SOMEONE ELSE. YOU misinterpreted what I was saying. In fact, I even said MYSELF that Rodgers was better and that his numbers would have been better if not for drops.

Ya know what the worst part is tho? The fact that Rodgers was #2 on that list was IRRELEVANT. It wasn't my point...as I stated time and time again. I would have osted that REGARDLESS of who was #2. My point was ONLY that Kaep was #1. It was an argument to refute the "grand experiment" theory.

Its like I'm saying, "Hey, the sky is blue" and you are saying "Yeah, but we don't have that much Jello". I say "I never said we had that much Jello...that had nothing to do with it", and you say "HAAAA...I know you were talking about Jello.....NICE TRY!!!".

This is my last post on this because I'm wasting WAY too much time talking about this dumb crap. I know what I was talking about and whom I was talking to. I know who I believe is better (and he wears a Green Jersey on Sundays).
 
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Marvin49

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He's our disgruntled Packers.com editor. He hates us, and says you guys play football "the right way" He's been very excited to see our opponents play all year long.

LOL.

We've got those guys out here too. "Its all about the QB". "It doesn't matter whose behind center, all that matters is the O-Lin and Frank Gore".
 

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