IS the Defense going to stop Big Plays this year?

[Poppa San]

The Packers defense finished ninth in opponent's third down conversions at 35.7%. With three yards or less to go the team allowed a first down on 54.0% (11th) and with more than seven yards needed for another set of downs Green Bay ranked 19th in the league at 27.1%.

How many of these "big" plays are late in the game? I'd think a byproduct of a bend but don't break defense is to allow a lot of the 3&7 plays to convert the first down but still bleed the clock late in the game instead of giving up a 50 yard strike instead. Many times I've wanted to see tighter coverage or a stronger rush but that didn't happen on the say 3&4 to 3&9 plays as much as it did on the 3&11 or so plays. I think they gave up and contained for the shorter yardage and pinned the ears back on the 3 and quite a bit longer plays. Also I noticed the defense play tighter after the offense would get closer to field goal range late in the games.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

How many of these "big" plays are late in the game? I'd think a byproduct of a bend but don't break defense is to allow a lot of the 3&7 plays to convert the first down but still bleed the clock late in the game instead of giving up a 50 yard strike instead. Many times I've wanted to see tighter coverage or a stronger rush but that didn't happen on the say 3&4 to 3&9 plays as much as it did on the 3&11 or so plays. I think they gave up and contained for the shorter yardage and pinned the ears back on the 3 and quite a bit longer plays. Also I noticed the defense play tighter after the offense would get closer to field goal range late in the games.

The Packers defense allowed opponents to convert 33.3% of third and more than seven yards in the fourth quarter last season (tied for 26th) while allowing an average of 7.83 yards (28th) on plays like that. I don't care about the unit's approach they have to play better in such situations.

 

[Poppa San]

Didn't say I liked the approach either. Just seemed to be the result. Maybe with less youth on the back end, this year will be different?

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. We don't have the front seven a 3-4 requires. We can't get to the QB and we can't stop the run. 3-4 Defenses as a minimum requirement need to be able to stop the run at a high level. We don't have a DL that demands double teams from each lineman which means opposing OLs are engaged one-on-one with a LB in many situations, hence not nearly as many sacks as we could get. Fire TT and Capers and voila, problem solved.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. We don't have the front seven a 3-4 requires. We can't get to the QB and we can't stop the run. 3-4 Defenses as a minimum requirement need to be able to stop the run at a high level. We don't have a DL that demands double teams from each lineman which means opposing OLs are engaged one-on-one with a LB in many situations, hence not nearly as many sacks as we could get.

It's nonsense that the Packers can't get to the QB as the team ranked third in the league in sack percentage per dropback last season at 7.54%.

 

[El Guapo]

It's possible that you are both correct to a degree. Our defensive linemen aren't dominant has a unit, but Capers has always been fond of exotic blitz schemes, usually by the linebackers - both inside and out. While we are getting sacks, it also leaves us more vulnerable when there are less players available to defend the shallow routes.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

It's possible that you are both correct to a degree. Our defensive linemen aren't dominant has a unit, but Capers has always been fond of exotic blitz schemes, usually by the linebackers - both inside and out. While we are getting sacks, it also leaves us more vulnerable when there are less players available to defend the shallow routes.

I agree that the Packers defensive line isn't dominant at all but the defense still manages to get to the quarterback. It's true that Capers uses a lot of blitzes as well (on 39% of the opponent's dropbacks in 2015, fifth highest in the league) but QBs didn't have a lot more success passing the ball in those situations.

The biggest problems on defense include the inability to consistently stop the run and the lack of a decent coverage linebacker.

 

[PikeBadger]

I agree that the Packers defensive line isn't dominant at all but the defense still manages to get to the quarterback. It's true that Capers uses a lot of blitzes as well (on 39% of the opponent's dropbacks in 2015, fifth highest in the league) but QBs didn't have a lot more success passing the ball in those situations.

Just curious who the four teams were that blitzed more than us and whether they had problems getting off the field in 3rd and 8 like we did. I don't think the problem is with our DB's. Teams appear to me to be handling our blitzes well in these situations. More 3 and outs would be very welcome and go a long ways to having a fresh defense in the 4th quarter.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Just curious who the four teams were that blitzed more than us and whether they had problems getting off the field in 3rd and 8 like we did. I don't think the problem is with our DB's. Teams appear to me to be handling our blitzes well in these situations. More 3 and outs would be very welcome and go a long ways to having a fresh defense in the 4th quarter.

Arizona blitzed the most in the league last season at 45.1%, I don't know about the other teams (possibly Football Outsiders will release that information in their almanac later this month). The Cardinals ranked third in first down percentage allowed on third and more than seven yards at 21.2%.

I think the Packers defensive backs are partly to blame for the team's struggles on third and long as well as 25 of 35 conversions were the result of a receiver catching a ball. But you're correct that the team doesn't have a lot of success pressuring the quarterback on blitzes (34.0%, 21st in the league).

Interestingly the team produced the 12th most three and outs last season (23.2%).

 

[El Guapo]

People don't like to believe that we had a good defense in 2015 because there aren't the usual statistics to fully support the conclusion. As we all know, the offense was atrocious and frequently went three and out and a much higher rate than in recent history. The defense eventually would cave at times but IMO due to excessive use. The most important thing is that our defense only lost one player of value in Raji (we can debate Hayward but his play diminished recently). We should be as good or better on defense in 2016, especially if the offense returns to normal form.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

People don't like to believe that we had a good defense in 2015 because there aren't the usual statistics to fully support the conclusion. As we all know, the offense was atrocious and frequently went three and out and a much higher rate than in recent history. The defense eventually would cave at times but IMO due to excessive use. The most important thing is that our defense only lost one player of value in Raji (we can debate Hayward but his play diminished recently). We should be as good or better on defense in 2016, especially if the offense returns to normal form.

I agree that the Packers defense doesn't get enough credit for their performance during the 2015 season and that excessive use might have been a factor in the unit getting tired at certain points.

As long as Clark is able to adequately replace Raji the Packers defense should end up being a top 10 unit in points allowed.

 

[Pkrjones]

I don't disagree with either comment above, but looking at Time of Possession since AR has been the starter things haven't changed all that much in the last 5 years. It seemed that in '15 there were times when the D had trouble getting off of the field, but apparently not much different than previous years.

Year Offensive T.O.P./Game
2015 30.08
2014 30.32
2013 30.52
2012 30.26
2011 30.29
2010 32.01
2009 33.02
2008 31.37

 

[Sky King]

I don't disagree with either comment above, but looking at Time of Possession since AR has been the starter things haven't changed all that much in the last 5 years. It seemed that in '15 there were times when the D had trouble getting off of the field, but apparently not much different than previous years.

Year Offensive T.O.P./Game
2015 30.08
2014 30.32
2013 30.52
2012 30.26
2011 30.29
2010 32.01
2009 33.02
2008 31.37

Trying to get my gray matter around this. I'm wondering how the number of possessions (last season) for the opponents' offense balances vs. time of possession for the Packers D (i.e., did they have to stop opponents on more possessions last year than in previous years)? Also, how does the time of possession for the Packers offense (when using the no-huddle) influence time of possession for the Packers D?

I seem to recall that in the Bills heyday with the K-gun offense their defense had to be on the field much longer in comparison to the quick, high-scoring Bills offense. That offense and the Packers offense were/are definitely not the ground and pound, eat up the clock types.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I don't disagree with either comment above, but looking at Time of Possession since AR has been the starter things haven't changed all that much in the last 5 years. It seemed that in '15 there were times when the D had trouble getting off of the field, but apparently not much different than previous years.

Year Offensive T.O.P./Game
2015 30.08
2014 30.32
2013 30.52
2012 30.26
2011 30.29
2010 32.01
2009 33.02
2008 31.37

Time of possession isn't the best indicator for a defense getting used excessively. Last year the defense was on the field for a total of 1,056 snaps during the regular season. That number is the second highest since Rodgers became the starter with 2013 being the lone exception when #12 was out for half the season.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Trying to get my gray matter around this. I'm wondering how the number of possessions (last season) for the opponents' offense balances vs. time of possession for the Packers D (i.e., did they have to stop opponents on more possessions last year than in previous years)? Also, how does the time of possession for the Packers offense (when using the no-huddle) influence time of possession for the Packers D?

The Packers opponents had a total of 181 possessions last season, the most since 2012.

Here are the numbers for the previous years with Rodgers being the starter:

2014: 170
2013: 176
2012: 184
2011: 178
2010: 182
2009: 184
2008: 184

As you can see the difference is pretty marginal.

The Packers offense was the 10th fastest snapping the ball last season at an average of 26.77 seconds per play, pretty close to the league average of 27.42 seconds. It doesn't seem the team using the no-huddle significantly influenced the defense being on the field more often.

 

[mongoosev]

I suppose we should since we have a fairly good schedule to our advantage. according to some analyst they think we have a very easy schedule. so hopefully we dominate this season with lopsided scores to show that we do have an "easy" schedule. lol

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I suppose we should since we have a fairly good schedule to our advantage. according to some analyst they think we have a very easy schedule. so hopefully we dominate this season with lopsided scores to show that we do have an "easy" schedule. lol

Based on last season's records the Packers have the easiest schedule in the league. I'm not sure that will help the team's defense prevent big plays though.

 

[mongoosev]

Based on last season's records the Packers have the easiest schedule in the league. I'm not sure that will help the team's defense prevent big plays though.

well they better make big plays if they want to go to the SB especially stopping 3rd and long.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

well they better make big plays if they want to go to the SB especially stopping 3rd and long.

While I agree with this statement the topic of this thread is about the defense not giving up big plays.