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Expectations for 2020

Discussion in 'Green Bay Packers Fan Forum' started by XPack, May 13, 2020.

  1. XPack

    XPack Cheesehead

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    So we'll do same or better than 2019?
    Or regress to a worse record?

    I know it's too early, but surely we have enough to make a reasonable prediction by now.

    I think it's later. Probably win NFC North but lower end of playoff seeding.
     
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  2. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    I went on record with a prediction of 10-6 in the thread I did on regression in the NFCN.

    I kind of deliberated between 10 and 11.

    I could envision GB being a better team with a lesser record in 2020. It's unlikely that they will be able to match an 86% win rate in one score games this season, and injuries could bite them harder than they did this last season.

    From 2014 to 2019, 10 teams went 13-3 or better and only two of them managed to win that many games in the next season. It's just a really hard thing to do.

    The average regression among those 10 teams was 3.8 games, which means that the average follow-up record rounds to 9-7.

    Carolina: 15-1 -> 6-10
    Arizona: 13-3 -> 7-8-1
    Dallas: 13-3 -> 9-7
    New England: 14-2 -> 13-3
    New England: 13-3 -> 11-5
    Pittsburgh: 13-3 -> 9-7
    Philadelphia: 13-3 -> 9-7
    Minnesota: 13-3 -> 8-7-1
    New Orleans: 13-3 -> 13-3
    Los Angeles: 13-3 -> 9-7

    Interestingly, my prediction of 13-3 to 10-6 hasn't happened in 5 years.
     
    Last edited: May 15, 2020
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  3. Packer Fan in SD

    Packer Fan in SD Cheesehead

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    Record wise, I think less than 13 wins. In all our years we have only won 13 games 5 times. Granted many years we played 14 or less games, it still is hard to do.

    We could actually be better, not saying we will, but we could be and still have one or two less wins. Injuries, target on our backs in conference, who knows what, but we could be better overall and have a worse record.
     
  4. Sanguine camper

    Sanguine camper Cheesehead

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    The Packers will struggle against teams with a good running attack due to superior o line talent. They were gashed against the run last season and that won't change because of the lack of upgrades in the offseason. The games against SF, Philly, Tenn, Indy, and NO will be uphill tasks. Throw in a few games against qb's that have had plenty of success against GB like Ryan of Atlanta, Brady and Stafford and a 10 win season would be a major accomplishment.
     
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  5. GreenNGold_81

    GreenNGold_81 Cheesehead

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    9-7, second in the nfc north. Chicago having a somewhat competent qb kinda scares me.
     
  6. G0P4ckG0

    G0P4ckG0 Cheesehead

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    12-4 barring major injuries, 4-12 if Rodgers misses the whole season
     
  7. Pintsizedbox9

    Pintsizedbox9 Cheesehead

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    I think it'll come down to how we manage the first 8 games. The defense is going to be tested this season.

    9-7 or 10-6 & that should be good enough to win the division.
     
  8. Fat Dogs

    Fat Dogs Cheesehead

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    Weeks
    1. @Vikings W
    2. Lions W
    3. @Saints L
    4. Falcons W
    5. Bye
    6. @Bucs W
    7. @Texans W
    8. Vikings L
    9. @49ers L
    10. Jaguars W
    11. @colts W
    12. Bears W
    13. Eagles W
    14. @lions L
    15. Panthers W
    16. Titans W
    17. @Bears L
    11-5 (weeks 6 and 16...)
     
  9. OldSchool101

    OldSchool101 Peerless Beer, Lacrosse WI

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    I see a very slight improvement overall at Offense, but the Defensive personnel doesn’t leave a “we got better” impression. Treyvon Hester doesn’t exactly get me excited as a “game changer” if you catch the drift :cautious:
    Offense should be able to crack the top 10-12 range. But I’m not sure that’s good enough to lift the Defense.
    I see a team that’ll lose 1 more game due to personnel and 1 more game due to injury. Losing a game to a tougher strength of opponents is debatable. I’m between 10-6 and 11-5.
    Ok. I hate to do this to y’all. How about 10-5-1 :tup:
     
  10. Fredrik87

    Fredrik87 Cheesehead

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    I see 11-5 and division sweep.
     
  11. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    As I've mentioned before only 10 out of 74 teams that won at least 13 games since the NFL adopted a 16 game schedule have been able to repeat that feat, therefore it's unrealistic to expect the Packers to win as many games again in 2020.

    I fully expect them to win the NFC North again, don't consider them to be a Super Bowl contender though.

    I didn't realize the Bears have a competent quarterback. Who else did they acquire aside of Foles??? ;)
     
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  12. GreenNGold_81

    GreenNGold_81 Cheesehead

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    Foles has just as many rings as Rodgers (not saying he's a Rodgers level talent, just that he can win in the right scenario).... with that defense back healthy they could be a problem.
     
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  13. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Foles was able to get hot at the right time with the Eagles in 2017 but overall I don't consider him to be an above average quarterback.

    In my opinion he doesn't turn the Bears into contenders for the division title.
     
  14. GreenNGold_81

    GreenNGold_81 Cheesehead

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    IMO he does.
     
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  15. gbgary

    gbgary Cheesehead

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    9-7. i don't expect the injury luck they had last year to repeat itself. the O will be better (if you-know-what happens) but the middle of the D is still a concern (as of this date). i think injuries and minn's improvement will bump them down to 2nd. hope i'm wrong about injuries. if so everything else will fall into place for a playoff seed...which will only mess up next years draft position...dang it. ;)
     
    Last edited: May 15, 2020
  16. McKnowledge

    McKnowledge Cheesehead

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    I got Green Bay at 10-6, with a possible 4-5 game losing streak between Week 3 and Week 8. Looks potentially brutal. The division is still theirs, but the playoff seed will have the Pack at 4th.

    The offense will perform better, with Sternberger, Dillon, and ESB emerging respectively.

    I think the pass rush will regress a little, but the pass defense will become elite.
     
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  17. McKnowledge

    McKnowledge Cheesehead

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    I don't think Minnesota is going to improve from last season.

    The Diggs loss is huge and will be felt, especially with Thielen probably declining.

    Rookies are rookies.

    Kirk Cousins is Kirk Cousins.

    Cook will get hurt.

    Rudolph remains underutilized.

    Defense will underachieve.

    The Pack will win the division again.
     
  18. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I don't consider the Packers offensive line to be improved by replacing Bulaga with Wagner. In addition they will continue to struggle blocking for the run.

    The Vikings definitely didn't improve over last season.
     
  19. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    Foles is an sub-average, injury prone statue playing behind a bad offensive line. The Bears allow a lot of pressure on the passer, and they allow it fast-- 2.37 seconds on average, which is 29th in the league. Foles was terrible behind a similar line last season. He is nothing to worry about.
     
  20. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    I don't disagree with most of this, except that Minnesota has improved. Minny has taken a significant step backwards this season, losing Diggs, Griffen, Joseph, and basically all of their corners. They're worse at WR, DL, and DB, and I would challenge anyone to come up with a single area in which they improved.
     
  21. gopkrs

    gopkrs Cheesehead

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    Well at least you finally did not say "elite.":)
     
  22. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    11-5.

    Better team than 2019, worse record.
     
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  23. GreenNGold_81

    GreenNGold_81 Cheesehead

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    Foles will be back with familiar faces (hc, oc, qb coach and oline coach) and in a familiar system. He's a former SuperBowl MVP and when things are right, he's certainly above average. To say he's "nothing to worry about" is naïve.
     
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  24. PackerfaninCarolina

    PackerfaninCarolina Cheesehead

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    Well, I don't think we're going to repeat 13-3 this year, but this is about how I see things going taking a wild stab at the schedule

    Week 1 at Minnesota - L as much as I hate these guys and would love to sweep them, I don't think that will happen this year as unfortunately this game isn't on Monday night this year

    Week 2 vs Detroit - W These guys continue to be a pain in the butt so I expect this will be another tough one. But I think we win another close one.

    Week 3 at New Orleans - L Since winning Superbowl XXXI here, the results have been very awful. Defense has given up an average of about 42 ppg in this building over the last few meetings. Gonna have to cut that down dramatically if we want to win here.

    Week 4 vs Atlanta - W Thank god we got these guys at home and not in the Georgia death dome. I think this too could be a tight one, but I think we take it.


    Week 5 BYE - fairly good point in the season I think. Not too late but not too early.

    Week 6 at Tampa Bay - W Tampa Bay now has TB12, but he's not what he used to be. It's going to be a tough one but I think our own number 12 wins this QB duel of the old guys.

    Week 7 at Houston - L I don't know why, but I just don't have a good feeling about this one. Our track record against Houston has been good, but something about this game has me thinking LA Chargers type game.

    Week 8 vs Minnesota - W we come out swinging here and get revenge.

    Week 9 at San Francisco - L Ugh, already bad enough that this was going to be a tough game, but goddammit NFL sending us to Santa Clara on a short week. Not good.

    Week 10 vs Jacksonville - W We continue to have these guys number


    Week 11 at Indianapolis - W fingers crossed Indy has been a bad place for us in the past. But we're about due for a win here, so why not.

    Week 12 vs Chicago - W Our recent luck against the Bears has been good, think it continues.

    Week 13 vs Philadelphia - W should have beaten these guys last year, I think this year at this juncture in the season we will.

    Week 14 at Detroit - L Don't think we're going to be lucky enough to get an injury battered Lions team this time

    Week 15 vs Carolina - W Don't entirely know what to expect here. This is going to be quite a different team than what I've seen over the last several years with Rivera and most of his players gone. Could be a better or worse one, but my gut says Rhule is no Lafleur.

    Week 16 vs Tennessee - W Tough game on paper but crazy enough I'm actually feeling good about it. If we stop DH, our chances of winning go up dramatically.

    Week 17 at Chicago - W Good game to have to close out the season on a strong note.



    Feels like most of the toughest games are front loaded here. Obviously no game is a gimme and it remains to be seen on a couple of teams as to how they shake out.

    But I'd say 10-6/11-5 if we came out on the other side of the 49er game at 4-4. Not ideal but I would still feel pretty good about our chances to gain momentum in the second half.
     
  25. PackerfaninCarolina

    PackerfaninCarolina Cheesehead

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    Well, so far Foles has not had much success outside of Philly for good reason. The Rams and Jags had these same expectations and they both gave up on him pretty quickly.

    NOW.... I'll say that I definitely don't expect to go undefeated in division play this year. That's rarely ever happened in our history so I'm thinking we probably go 4-2 in it this year. But I'm more concerned about the Vikes and Lions atm than I am the Bears.
     

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