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El Cid's offseason

Discussion in 'Draft Talk' started by elcid, Feb 14, 2019.

  1. elcid

    elcid Cheesehead

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    Thought I tried a little mock draft of my own. I used the mock draft simulator of FanSpeak on difficult setting and used the latest draft board by Draftek. A draft class which (all though unlikely of happening) would excite me is the following:
    rxttqd.png
    R1
    #12 Devin White, ILB, LSU
    After doing a lot of simulations with various draft boards, White and Oliver are the consensus top prospects who drop to our pick most frequently. While I would like an edge rusher here and Oliver offers some pass rush, taking a guy like White who has great instincts seemed like the better pick imo.

    #30 Cody Ford, OL, Oklahoma
    Ford will probably not make it to this pick, but if he is still there we should sprint to the podium. His variety would serve our depleted Oline well. Another good option here would be Risner.

    R2
    #44 Brian Burns, EDGE, FSU
    I might actually see Burns drop due to questions about his effectiveness at the next level due to his lack of power. Buzz has also been more around Sweat and Polite. Ideally I would have liked to pick our edge rusher in Allen, Gary or Ferrell at #12 but since that position group is drained I really felt we had to spend the best offensive playmaker would be my focus. Marquise Brown, Samuel, any of the top tight ends would have the chance to be here.

    R3

    #75 WR Deebo Samuel, South Carolina
    Imo the least likely pick of happening due to the buzz around Samuel, he'll make an extremely good addition. The guy has blown up the Senior Bowl with his shiftiness and would instantly be an upgrade over an aged Cobb in the slot. If unavailable, this is the earliest I would start looking for a RB in this draft unless Jacobs falls to our second rounder. Harris and Montgomery seem like legit options here.

    R4
    #114 OT Tytus Howard, Alabama State
    Small school prospect who after a year of tutelage could take over from Bulaga. Posesses some fine athletic tools.

    #118 TE Jace Sternberger, Texas A&M
    Sternberger, though less of a blocker, could immediately contribute in the passing game. Ran some crisp routes for the Aggies.

    R5
    #151 FS Lukas Denis, Boston College
    This seemed like the latest we could address the safety postion. Undersized ball hawk which should be the only reason why his name would be called out on Day 3. Possesses some fine ball skills and instincts and with the addition of a veteran safety I think arguably are weakest position has a chance to be solid.

    R6
    #187 DL (EDGE) LJ Collier, TCU
    Was really impressive during the senior bowl practices. Tbh I think he has shot up draft boards too high and the chance of him being available here seem slim.

    #196 RB LJ Scott, Michigan State
    Physical runner who can both grind out the tough yards as well as catch passes out of the backfield. A formidable run attack would take so much pressure of Rodgers and while I would have liked to take a back like Harris or Montgomery in the 3rd, Samuel was too good to pass up there. Furthermore I believe that Scott could make a considerable impact as well

    R7
    #228 OG Ben Powers, Oklahoma
    WR's Penny Hart and Keelan Doss, EDGE Jordan Brailford and a kicker to get Crosby of the books got my consideration, but Ben Powers would be a steal here and would give us the luxury to move Ford around the line wherever he is needed. Instead of drafting multiple from the Badger Oline I did so from the Sooner Oline.


    Spend roughly 20M of our cap space on resigning some of our own in Resign Breeland (roughly 7m a year), Wilkerson (roughly 5m), Allison (roughly 3?), Gilbert (2), Tonyan (1), Kumerow (1), McCray (1) and sign Mathieu (roughly 9) and Barr (roughly 10). I am still quite unsure if I would be over the cap in this way but if we would be over signing all these players I'd advocate leaving Wilkerson out.

    Super Bowl caliber roster right there:p. Let me know what you guys think:tdown:
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2019
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  2. brandon2348

    brandon2348 GO PACK GO!

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    I think your on the right track here. I would prefer Lindstrom over Ford and Campbell over Samuel but its more personal preference as there all good players i would be happy with any of the 4.

    Devin White is a beast. Burns concerns me but maybe lean and fast will work. Kind of a boom or bust pick.

    I also think LJ Scott is an NFL ready back and yes he can catch with MSU moving him around.

    Barr is fine but I dont want anything to do with Mathieu.

    Overall id be happy.
     
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  3. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    I like you taste in prospects, but I can't take these Fan Speak things seriously. Picks 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 8 seem very, very unrealistic.
     
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  4. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Well done!
     
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  5. elcid

    elcid Cheesehead

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    I think the main advantage you have in such a draft simulator compared to real life is the level of certainty with which you can predict whether a prospect you like will be there in a later round due to the fact that each team follows the same draft board. A similar yet somewhat more realistic mock draft I did recently would be:

    ekltey (1).png
     
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  6. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    The Packers could tender Allison for approximately $2 million. Gilbert, Tonyan, McCray and Kumerow are all exclusive rights free agents meaning the team can tender them for the minimum.

    I would definitely prefer Gutekunst to sign Amos and a different edge rusher than Barr in free agency.
     
  7. hasamikun

    hasamikun Cheesehead

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    I like teh 2nd mock very much. Although I think that Hock wont be available at #30, I can imagine drafting Fant or Smith instead. I also like Risner but I cant help but hoping for Simmons to drop to 2nd #12 so Packers can take him. Ye the injury sucks but he has elite talent and Packers should take the risk. He is worth it. Also I can see Gutey take a similar approach like the did last year with the WRs: Drafting 3 EDGE guys, one in 3rd round and the other two later.

    Anyways it is a good mock and I wouldnt complain if it happens like that.
     
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  8. elcid

    elcid Cheesehead

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    After reading HRE's detailed cap space analysis, it seems like we can't sign all these players. While I understand that Barr does not seem like the ideal target, I think him not playing EDGE the past seasons will greatly decrease the value of his contract. Furthermore if he does not pan out he can offer help at ILB. His versatility will greatly benefit our LB core. Same goes for Mathieu and our safety group. He can play numerous positions, all in which we need help. What makes you opposed to signing Mathieu?


    Thanks. Tbh right now I dont even believe that Risner will make it to that pick. Ideally I would like an elite edge prospect to drop to our #12 (Allen, Gary, Ferrell respectively) and take the best OL prospect available at #30 (Ford, Taylor, Risner, Dillard). There is bound to be a good weapon for AR at #44 (Hollywood Brown, Hockenson, Smith, Samuel, Fant, Harmon, A.J. Brown, Harry). If not, I wouldn't be opposed against Simmons or a FS in Adderley, Thompson or Rapp.
     
  9. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    In my opinion Amos is a better fit for the Packers need of adding a player capable of lining up as a single high safety.
     
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  10. PackFan2

    PackFan2 Cheesehead

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    Thats true but as history has shown players fall. What you deem as a 5th rounder is seen by another as a 2nd rounder.
     
  11. PackFan2

    PackFan2 Cheesehead

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    ^^^ YES!
     
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  12. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    That does happen, but it doesn't happen 8 times in a row in one team's draft class.
     
  13. PackFan2

    PackFan2 Cheesehead

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    '8 times in a row...' according to you? Or whom? I think youre overrating guys. Like i said, theres gonna be a bunch of "no names" that will be picked. And that's elcids SIMULATED draft. Thing bout mock drafts are to have fun and make your own board. Just saying sorry.
     
  14. elcid

    elcid Cheesehead

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    Dantés was right, my first mock indeed was very wishful thinking. I've seen a lot of draft boards and these guys could easily all get picked 1 round earlier than where I got them. However, I do agree with you that buzz builds around some prospects (especially the ones we further examine due to them playing a position of need for us) and in order for these players to climb draft boards, others must fall.

    There's only a fixed amount of players being picked ahead of *insert your packer pick of choice here*. There will be an increasingly bigger discrepancy between how we/the Packers FO value these rookies vs. how other teams value these same players. Given that we could use players at any position on offense apart from QB and EDGE, S, and LB on defense, it allows us to stick to the BPA strategy even more and see at which of these positions prospects get undervalued and slip.
     
  15. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    According to me, according to most reputable analysts, according to the history of this particular simulator... we can wait and find out.
     
  16. elcid

    elcid Cheesehead

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    I've done a final mock draft through the mock draft machine of the draft network. Unfortunately it wont allow me to upload the screenshots, so here it goes;

    12 - Devin Bush LB, Michigan.
    Would have loved Ed Oliver here, but he is gone. My choices were Jonah Williams, Devin Bush or TJ Hockenson. I'm not sold at all on taking a TE here, let's see how the rest of the league values this year's batch first. Williams was tempting but OL has more depth throughout the class and hence I ended up with Bush, who's play definitely warrants a top 15 selection.

    30 - Jerry Tillery, IDL, Notre Dame.
    had a similar pass rushing grade by PFF to Oliver, so there is that.

    44 - Dalton Risner, OT, Kansas State
    AJ Brown, Risner, Adderley and Irv Smith were still on the board but I had to go with the versatile olinemen here after passing up on Williams. I would have taken AJ Brown though if I didn't deem it extremely unlikely to happen in real life.

    75 - Andy Isabella, WR, UMass
    Thrilled to get Isabella here. i can see it happen with all the WR talent available in this draft. Would gladly take Hardman here as well.

    114 - Kahale Warring, TE, San Diego State
    im all aboard the Warring train. Other good late round options at TE are Sweeney of BC or Wesco of WVU.

    118 - Ugochukwu Amadi, S, Oregon

    150 - Jalen Jelks, EDGE, Oregon
    Back to back Oregon defenders. Amadi is versatile and has decent range, and Jelks will probably be the last edge rusher with the potential to develop into a decent starter in the future off the board.

    185 - Sheldrick Redwine, S, Miami
    The value of Redwine is, like Amadi's, his versatility. Both can also takes snaps in the slot.

    194 - Jimmy Moreland, CB, James Madison
    I already drafted 2 DB's, but I couldn't pass up on Moreland here. Great slot cb depth as I am confident in our CB's as they are right now, but we've been here before after drafting Randall and Rollins. It can still go downhill. Personally I dont see Moreland lasting this long so I would probably call this my steal of the draft.

    226 - Bruce Anderson, RB, North Dakota State

    Strong downhill runner who can also contribute in the passing game and pass protect. LJ Scott would be a great option here as well.


    I would have liked to maybe add an extra OL guy in the 6th round over one of the DB's, but Risner's and Turners versatility, along with the entrance of Madison made me more at ease of ignoring this urge. I was lucky with Risner, Isabella and Moreland being available where they were.

    Let me know what you guys think!
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2019
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  17. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    I love that draft. I prefer Hardeman to Isabella. He scares me.
     
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  18. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    Cosigned!
     
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  19. elcid

    elcid Cheesehead

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    I like Hardman a lot as well, however he seems more one dimensional than Isabella to me. His return skills might be better though
     
  20. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Very reasonable on the availability. You address many of our needs and you got good value. Well done!

    Bush and Dalton will start as rookies and help out a great deal. Tillery will be a good one.
     
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