Dillon.......keeping defenses honest.

[Pokerbrat2000]

You know I was screaming for Pittman especially when we traded up….

I've been screaming for just about any and every WR in the first few rounds....since probably 2017. I wanted them to pick Patrick Queen or Tee Higgins in 2020 and suddenly we landed Jordan Love.

I also liked Denzel Mims or Claypool. Mims has turned out to be kind of a bust.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

It has been only a very few years recently where I'll hear the argument of not enough weapons....for years this team gave him multiple excellent WRs that produced. You cannot have All Pros everywhere NOR can you expect to field two, three or four All Pro Receiving Threats without massive holes most likely somewhere else.

I agree that it's impossible to have several All-Pro receiving threats but there's no doubt in my mind the Packers did a poor job over the past few years to surround Rodgers with enough talent at the position.

 

[tynimiller]

I agree that it's impossible to have several All-Pro receiving threats but there's no doubt in my mind the Packers did a poor job over the past few years to surround Rodgers with enough talent at the position.

As I broke down the flow of weapons (not just WRs) for more than a dozen years, the year it broke was when MVS had to be our #2 and we let Cobb walk. It was the first year we didn't have two bonafide WRs and the team gambled MVS, after a heck of a rookie year, would take a step - injuries and no growth his second year hurt us a TON...from there it just compounded with not finding anything forward.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

As I broke down the flow of weapons (not just WRs) for more than a dozen years, the year it broke was when MVS had to be our #2 and we let Cobb walk. It was the first year we didn't have two bonafide WRs and the team gambled MVS, after a heck of a rookie year, would take a step - injuries and no growth his second year hurt us a TON...from there it just compounded with not finding anything forward.

While the Packers had a decent receiving corps solely going by names until the 2019 season they already lacked production on the field starting in 2017.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

While the Packers had a decent receiving corps solely going by names until the 2019 season they already lacked production on the field starting in 2017.

Yup, that is when Jordy's game, as well as Cobb's started to go down hill. Gute took over after that season and it felt like with his release of Jordy, one of his priorities was to address the position. While he sort of tried in his first draft to do that, by drafting Moore (4th rd.), MVS (5th) and ESB (6th), it really wasn't a big enough swing. He compounded the problem by thinking those 3 rookies would step up in their 2nd and 3rd years and failed to even draft a single WR in the next 2 drafts.

Like I said in a previous post, TT probably should have addressed the position in 2016 or 17, but I mostly blame Gute for not paying closer attention to an issue that some of us have been aware for several years.

 

[kevans74]

You know I have been reading that a lot from posters and while it may be true to a certain extent, I can't help but feel that if the WR/TE talent was at a higher level, we would be seeing an even more potent offense. Look at what Tonyan accomplished in 2020. I really don't think he is the next Travis Kelce, but he had a really nice season in a good offensive system, with an MVP QB.

So sure, we don't need 4 Pro Bowl Guys out there running routes and catching passes, but we definitely have lacked talent and that becomes more apparent against really good defenses.

Right. I mean we don't need a 1st team All Pro type guy.If we had 2 or 3 Greg Jennings type WRs, very good but not All Pro type and can get open and can CATCH. Put them alongside a steady guy like Cobb and Lazard

Regarding TE, Tonyan, maybe 1 other TE(unless Deguara can learn to be more consistent). Although I would like to see a guy like Ertz or Cook come in to help stretch defenses on 2 TE sets.

I think with Aaron Jones and Dillon, both whom can catch we would be very potent with backs who can catch.

I believe there is a possibility that AR could throw for 50+ touchdown passes, not joking. I believe it is extremely possible.

 

[kevans74]

It has been only a very few years recently where I'll hear the argument of not enough weapons....for years this team gave him multiple excellent WRs that produced. You cannot have All Pros everywhere NOR can you expect to field two, three or four All Pro Receiving Threats without massive holes most likely somewhere else.

Some folks will want to point outside of Rodgers for his failures of rings....others will only point to Rodgers - I say both are ignorant of the truth.

Lol. Just like everywhere in life we have to find a "middle ground"

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Although I would like to see a guy like Ertz or Cook come in to help stretch defenses on 2 TE sets.

Just for the record, Ertz isn't a free agent as he signed a three-year, $31.65 million deal with the Cardinals.

Way too much money for what the Packers could have afforded to pay for a tight end.

 

[kevans74]

Yup, that is when Jordy's game, as well as Cobb's started to go down hill. Gute took over after that season and it felt like with his release of Jordy, one of his priorities was to address the position. While he sort of tried in his first draft to do that, by drafting Moore (4th rd.), MVS (5th) and ESB (6th), it really wasn't a big enough swing. He compounded the problem by thinking those 3 rookies would step up in their 2nd and 3rd years and failed to even draft a single WR in the next 2 drafts.

Like I said in a previous post, TT probably should have addressed the position in 2016 or 17, but I mostly blame Gute for not paying closer attention to an issue that some of us have been aware for several years.

Regarding this....

You don't believe AR "knew" and was a HUGE reason for his malcontent with Gute???

They were essentially telling AR to just "work with what we will give you" (lol) and just use your talent and MLF to figure it out...

Thankfully, Davante REALLY, REALLY, REALLY developed and progressed to an All Pro level that really no one saw coming. Actually, I had his ceiling as Dez Bryant coming out of college...but boy Davante really surpassed that lol

Tonyan and Lazard also progressed nicely
And the resigning of Aaron Jones was nice due to his dual threat ability

But you don't think AR just looked at his WR Corp and said.....Moore, MVS, and ESB....a 4th, 5th and 6th round pick and they're expecting me to turn these guys into Pro Bowlers???

There were no attempts at other reasonable 2nd or 3rd round guys until Amari was drafted. No Jennings, Jones, Nelson, Cobb, etc. Type of talents....and it showed

Good for MVS on his contract, but he's really not that good honestly lol. I'm happy for him as a person honestly, but there was a REASON he was a 5th round pick to begin wjth

 

[kevans74]

Just for the record, Ertz isn't a free agent as he signed a three-year, $31.65 million deal with the Cardinals.

Way too much money for what the Packers could have afforded to pay for a tight end.

Damn. Well rookie TE is probably the biggest crap shoot and they are hard to develop

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Regarding this....

You don't believe AR "knew" and was a HUGE reason for his malcontent with Gute???

They were essentially telling AR to just "work with what we will give you" (lol) and just use your talent and MLF to figure it out...

Thankfully, Davante REALLY, REALLY, REALLY developed and progressed to an All Pro level that really no one saw coming. Actually, I had his ceiling as Dez Bryant coming out of college...but boy Davante really surpassed that lol

Tonyan and Lazard also progressed nicely
And the resigning of Aaron Jones was nice due to his dual threat ability

But you don't think AR just looked at his WR Corp and said.....Moore, MVS, and ESB....a 4th, 5th and 6th round pick and they're expecting me to turn these guys into Pro Bowlers???

There were no attempts at other reasonable 2nd or 3rd round guys until Amari was drafted. No Jennings, Jones, Nelson, Cobb, etc. Type of talents....and it showed

Good for MVS on his contract, but he's really not that good honestly lol. I'm happy for him as a person honestly, but there was a REASON he was a 5th round pick to begin wjth

I've been singing that tune for many years. The Packers have been skating by on offense for years due to Rodgers talent. Why do you think backups look so bad when they have played in the last 5 or 6 years? Flynn looked like a Pro Bowler at times, back in 2010 and 2011 when he came in, why? He had a solid offense around him, with lots of weapons. He even parlayed it into a big contract with the Seahawks.

MLF's offensive scheme, coupled with Jones also helped keep Rodgers afloat over the last couple of years. I know, I know, people say "well yeah but he was MVP and the offense lead the league in this and that". Right, but just think how much better they could have been, especially in the playoffs, with just a few more receiving weapons.

I agree with you on MVS and its going to be very interesting to watch what he does. I think he went to the right team/QB to maximize his limited skill set, but I seriously doubt that at the end of the season, the Chiefs are going to be happy they paid him what they did.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I believe there is a possibility that AR could throw for 50+ touchdown passes, not joking. I believe it is extremely possible.

Yes, with the right weapons. With the group he currently has, no.

Tonyan is still a unknown to me. Will he pickup where he left off in 2020 or was that just a fluke year? I'm not too worried about his knee, but it is still something that you never really know how well he will come back from it. His 11 TD's was huge in 2020 and I am guessing most of those were in the Red Zone.

 

[tynimiller]

I agree with you on MVS and its going to be very interesting to watch what he does. I think he went to the right team/QB to maximize his limited skill set, but I seriously doubt that at the end of the season, the Chiefs are going to be happy they paid him what they did.

Pure production stats are a bad way of judging his role in an offense, but it is a part of it for sure. What would you feel KC is hoping or would be happy with out of him?

In their offense with their weapons ahead of him, I don't personally suspect much more than a Lazard type season (with lower catch percentages given nature of balls he will see most likely).

500-700 yards 5-7 TDs....?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Pure production stats are a bad way of judging his role in an offense, but it is a part of it for sure. What would you feel KC is hoping or would be happy with out of him?

In their offense with their weapons ahead of him, I don't personally suspect much more than a Lazard type season (with lower catch percentages given nature of balls he will see most likely).

500-700 yards 5-7 TDs....?

Just a hunch.

I think MVS benefited greatly from playing with Rodgers. Rodgers is a guy that knew how to read the defense better than most. He knew when MVS was a good option and usually delivered a very accurate long ball to him. Will Mahomes be able to duplicate that? I guess we will see. Mahomes plays faster than AR and has more receiving options. If Mahomes doesn't hit MVS a few times early in the season for long completions, he may be reduced to a receiver that has to make his catches in a normal 0-20 yard range, I don't see him being worth the money they paid him to be that kind of WR.

 

[kevans74]

Other thing with MVS, again good for him and sorry to "knock him", but look at his production. What has he produced so far???

His career best in catches was 38 his rookie year, career best in touchdown receptions is 6 in 2020.

If he somehow manages to equal those, you are looking at:
$250,000+ PER reception
$1.5M+ PER touchdown reception

Again, good for MVS...is he worth the money? Hell no in my opinion

Someone like Davante, or even Tonyan if he can replicate his 2020, is definitely a gut you pay $10M+ annually

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Other thing with MVS, again good for him and sorry to "knock him", but look at his production. What has he produced so far???

His career best in catches was 38 his rookie year, career best in touchdown receptions is 6 in 2020.

If he somehow manages to equal those, you are looking at:
$250,000+ PER reception
$1.5M+ PER touchdown reception

Again, good for MVS...is he worth the money? Hell no in my opinion

Someone like Davante, or even Tonyan if he can replicate his 2020, is definitely a gut you pay $10M+ annually

Agreed. I understand the "shine" of MVS and why he was a tempting signing. He can take the top off a defense, but if he doesn't, you are left with a so so average WR. Not many Packer fans who will say the Chiefs were smart in paying him that money, but good for MVS for getting it.

 

[PikeBadger]

Back to the OP topic. How many touches per game do you think Dillon should get this season? I'd like to see a lot more of multiple TE, 2RB sets this year with only 1 WR. Plays to our strengths more imo and opens up the playbook more with motioning guys like Jones, Dillon and Deguara.

 

[kevans74]

Agreed. I understand the "shine" of MVS and why he was a tempting signing. He can take the top off a defense, but if he doesn't, you are left with a so so average WR. Not many Packer fans who will say the Chiefs were smart in paying him that money, but good for MVS for getting it.

Yeah, I don't blame him at all.

 

[kevans74]

Back to the OP topic. How many touches per game do you think Dillon should get this season? I'd like to see a lot more of multiple TE, 2RB sets this year with only 1 WR. Plays to our strengths more imo and opens up the playbook more with motioning guys like Jones, Dillon and Deguara.

I think Dillon should get around 300...

250 rushes, 40-50 catches

Jones around 250 touches, but maybe more "quality" and explosive plays

 

[kevans74]

Dillon is a bigger, better version of Lacy in my opinion. Can catch some and give him the ball to punish the defense.

The comparisons to Henry are unfair in my opinion, those are really high expectations

 

[thequick12]

Someone like Davante, or even Tonyan if he can replicate his 2020, is definitely a gut you pay $10M+ annually

Apparently you pay a guy like Adams just about 3 times that annually...I do agree that is too much for MVS

 

[PikeBadger]

I think Dillon should get around 300...

250 rushes, 40-50 catches

Jones around 250 touches, but maybe more "quality" and explosive plays

So that would come out to about an average of 17 touches for Dillon and 15 for Jones. That accounts for just about half of the offensive snaps per game. Coupled with a top 10 defense and improved special teams play. That sounds like a lot of wins again.

I like your formula.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Damn. Well rookie TE is probably the biggest crap shoot and they are hard to develop

I would be in favor of adding a veteran tight end for a reasonable deal. But there was no way for the Packers to match the offer Ertz signed for.

Tonyan is still a unknown to me. Will he pickup where he left off in 2020 or was that just a fluke year? I'm not too worried about his knee, but it is still something that you never really know how well he will come back from it. His 11 TD's was huge in 2020 and I am guessing most of those were in the Red Zone.

Actually Tonyan (4 out of 11 - 36.4%) caught a higher percentage of touchdowns outside the red zone than the rest of the team (9 of 37 - 24.3%) in 2020.

Pure production stats are a bad way of judging his role in an offense, but it is a part of it for sure. What would you feel KC is hoping or would be happy with out of him?

In their offense with their weapons ahead of him, I don't personally suspect much more than a Lazard type season (with lower catch percentages given nature of balls he will see most likely).

500-700 yards 5-7 TDs....?

I don't think a team should be happy about a receiver producing 500 to 700 yards while being paid $10 million a season.

Someone like Davante, or even Tonyan if he can replicate his 2020, is definitely a gut you pay $10M+ annually

I wouldn't feel comfortable about paying Tonyan that kind of money even if he puts up numbers like in 2020 once again.

I'd like to see a lot more of multiple TE, 2RB sets this year with only 1 WR. Plays to our strengths more imo and opens up the playbook more with motioning guys like Jones, Dillon and Deguara.

What was the point of extending Rodgers if that's the plan moving forward???

 

[kevans74]

Jared Cooks comes to mind due to familiarity with AR

For Tonyan, I feel like eventually you have to find a Grey area between production and "what can he do the next 3-4 years?"

He's 27-28 and if he puts up another 50/600/8+, I believe he is Top 10 TE and worth around $10M annually

If he can replicate that for the next 3 to 4 years, wouldn't you say he's worth it?

 

[AKCheese]

So Rodgers wants to be the highest paid guy, wants a great D, wants the highest paid O-lineman, wants Aaron Jones and wants top notch WR talent, well as we used to say… want in one hand poop in the other and see which one fills up first. A) Forget what Rodgers says, he’s a master of deceit, watch what he DOES…. he held the Packers up for more money B) Green Bay will not be better at WR next year, they will be weaker C) players around the league know exactly who Rodgers is and they don’t trust him. No top level talent is going to make a 3 year commitment to Rodgers/Packers given he might have a new mystical revelation on the next Pat MacAfee show. We’re going to have to settle for some one year guys available later or maybe a “rental” we trade for. Rodgers said he didnt want to participate in a rebuilding team so I dont see him getting enthusiastically connect with rookies. Rodgers created this mess (in large part). It’s up to LaFluer to try to make it work. Hopefully Rodgers will play his role. He certainly did not when chips were on the line the last two years. Hope is not a plan, and doing the same thing year after year expecting different results is insanity but… at this point it’s all we’ve got. Heavy run/RB focused and a stout D. That’s our recipe AND I would be expending draft resources to beef that up so I wouldnt be shocked if we pass on lofty WR picks who Rodgers won’t throw to. I’ll be suprised if he plays the 3rd year of his deal and NOT suprised if this is his last year in Green Bay. Not sure if his contract makes him tradable NEXT spring.