our defense being overall pretty anemic against the pass (including the pass rush), our tendency to get destroyed in the middle of the field by even decent TEs and slot receivers (which might be better this year with the better safety group, but maybe not as well) of which we face several, our running game (primarily the abhorrent run blocking of late) leading our offense to be relatively one dimensional, and the likelihood that our offense starts off slowly (as it has done a few times these last several years). I see the SEA game as a pretty sure loss, the ATL game a likly loss, CIN a probable win, CHI is the only sure win in my mind, DAL is a probable win, Min could go either way, and NO is a probable win. Of those probable wins, they are all still very possible losses. Thats at absolute best a 5-2 start, more likely 4-3, possibly as bad as 3-4 (even 2-5 is possible, but very unlikely; 3-4 is not so unlikely as to be not worth fearing)
edit: I keep being tempted to move Cincy to a pretty sure win, but from what I've seen the things at which they are good match up well with the things at which we are bad, so I consider it a probable win.
Your skepticism is understood, but 2015 I wouldn't say the offense started slow. They did average 32 points per game. Rodgers in all three of those games had a 100+ passer rating, 80+ QBR, and had a 10-0 TD/INT ratio. Now, after that we started to see a bit of a change when defenses adjusted to how the Packers were playing without Nelson. Last season, Rodgers was force feeding Jordy a lot early on, not to mention still trying to work himself out of the funk he was in to finish the '15 season. I think all of those bugs have been worked out, and I know you don't want to acknowledge this, but Jared Cook's return from injury last year starting with the Washington game was the beginning of the offense taking off. I know you write that off as coincidence, but I maintain that it has merit.
This season, we have 2 legitimate tight end threats, and our top 3 receivers are intact from last season, not to mention continuity at the RB position with Montgomery. And Rodgers and Bennett have been putting in extra reps to work on their timing. I don't think there's going to be near as much adjusting like there was at the beginning of last season. The offense will come out firing.
Now I certainly share your concerns with the schedule, but I don't see how you're viewing the Seattle game as a for sure loss. We've had their number since losing the NFCCG, and even in that game we outplayed them for 55 minutes. Since Wilson became a starter, the Seahawks have lost by double digits in the regular season just twice. Both times were the past two times the Packers played them. And it's at home. I'm confident about the 1st game of the season being a win.
I don't think we can beat Atlanta on the road with the state of our defense, though improved. I'll have to see it to believe it, unless AR goes bananas and matches them possession for possession. In my mind, that gets us to 1-1.
Bengals/Bears back to back at home? 3-1.
Cowboys without Zeke is a win, especially with their inexperienced secondary. AR will have a field day.
Vikings are a division rival, I'll give you that one as a potential loss, although Rodgers would love to make amends for that early season loss last season. It took 4 Rodgers turnovers to lose by three points last September with a clearly less than clicking offense. And New Orleans at home doesn't scare me.
I predicted 13-3 as the finishing record, and I'll say the team starts 6-1, with a worst case of 5-2.