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Cap space

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by adambr2, Feb 18, 2013.

  1. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    This offseason is going to be great for the smart GMs who steal a couple players at discounts that were cut for cap reasons.
     
  2. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    They're not that bad. I'd say if we swapped QBs and divisions last season, they'd have been in the playoffs and we'd be looking at a high draft pick. Their D deserves a lot a credit...that team had zero offense after Kolb went down, they couldn't get the D off the field, yet they played a few games close after the flash start in September.

    OAK is the total disaster in this picture. They've got so much dead cap space I don't know how it will be possible for them to make the minimum cash payout required this year without going over the cap. Davis didn't just pick bad players and overpay the decent ones; he mortgaged the future 5 years out with "cap friendly" deals. McKenzie has almost no margin for error in his drafts.
     
  3. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    The Carson Palmer trade blew my mind. They have a ton of work to do. Jags are pretty bad from the talent perspective but as far as being competitive yeah oakland is a ways off.
     
  4. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Is it possible you missed my point?

    I did not suggest there is an either/or with Shields and Williams. I was making the point that a team with a Williams-like player making Williams-like pay might be happy to sign Shields to a relatively cheap deal as a replacement, saving a chunk of cap (and getting younger, better player) in exchange for a 2nd. round pick.
     
  5. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    What can we say. Palmer was a pretty darn fine QB before blowing up his elbow in 2008. He probably should have had the Tommy John surgery...he's not had better than average velocity after that. He's smart and gritty, but he's immobile and a shadow of his pre-2008 self.

    Signing him for that kind of money smacked of bankrupt imaginations in the front office.
     
  6. ThxJackVainisi

    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    It's certainly possible I missed your point but I think it's more likely the post of mine you quoted wasn't clear. The only point I was making in reference to your post was the 1st round tender, which costs $900K more than the 2nd round tender which in NFL terms is "cheap" insurance, and it makes sense to "buy" that insurance on Shields so a team with a Tramon-like CB doesn't sign him. Even accepting that point as a valid one, I think it's likely Shields will get the 2nd round tender. IOW, after the first sentence of that post I was just commenting on EDS and Shields unrelated to your posts.
     
  7. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    We frequently see "$5 million in cap space for the draftees" frequently cited in the press.

    This is worth exploring because it is wrong.

    Let's start by looking at last year's draft and those players' 2012 first year cap hits rounded to the nearest $10,000:

    Perry 1,360,000
    Worthy 720,000
    Heyward 590,000
    Daniels 470,000
    McMillian 470,000
    Manning 430,000
    Datko 0 (on PS, not counted against the cap)
    Coleman 0 (on PS, not counted against the cap)

    The 2012 cap cost of last year's draft totaled $4.04 million.

    While this figure is lower than the frequently cited $5 mil cap hit, that's not the main reason why the $5 mil figure is wrong. The $5 mil fails to account for the cap space gained from cutting the guys who were replaced.

    Let's look at that:

    This year we will likely have 8 picks (assuming a 4th. round compensation pick for Flynn). In that case, our picks and draft positions will be very close to last year's, assuming no major pick trades. So the salary scale allocation to those picks will be about the same as last year.

    So, for example, if we were to assume a similar outcome as last year (top 6 picks make the 53 man roster), then six old cap hits are being replaced. Since only the top 51 cap hits count against the cap, lets look at the bottom 6 current cap hits (players 46 - 51), which would be the minimum cap $ being replaced.

    All of those 6 players are assigned cap values of $480,000, for a total of approx. $2.9 million.

    So, if this year's final roster selections from the draft went like last year, the maximum cap hit from the rookie class would be about $1.1 mil.

    If, for example, you start thinking about rookies replacing guys like Quarless ($1.32 mil cap savings including dead cap) or even Hawk ($2.25 mil cap savings including dead cap), it is not hard to see how a draft class can net a gain in cap space.

    I don't think a lot of writers have come to fully appreciate the impact of the rookie salary scale implemented with the new CBA. The simplest way to look at it is with the Hayward example. He was the #62 pick, bottom of the second round. His $590,000 cap hit in 2012 was not appreciably more than the $390,000 rookie minimum, and was less than the 3rd. year vet minimum of $600,000.

    Or looked at another way, our upcoming 2nd. round pick's 2013 cap hit would be less than a guy like Zombo playing for the 4th. year vet minimum.

    Since the cap hits of low 2nd. rounders are about the same as or less than "just guys", your rookies can have the affect of lowering your cap hit. Worst case, the affect is about a $1 mil cap hit.

    The only picks who might meaningfully increase your cap hit in their rookie years is the guys taken in roughly the #1 - #50 spots.

    I think this will be the first year where the affects of the CBA will be particularly evident. Elite player pay keeps going up, while the cap is stagnant (actually down $7 mil from 2009). A good chunk of the cap savings from the rookie salary scale is simply being channeled to the elite players. That means the middle is being squeezed. I think the B level FA players (merely solid starters; aging stars or near-stars; injury histories) looking for fat second or third contracts might be disappointed. Young near-or-rising-stars going into their second deal will probably do well.

    In this respect (keeping all 8 picks from last year; dropping Jennings, Woodson, Driver, Saturday) TT is somewhat ahead of the curve.
     
    • Informative Informative x 1

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