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Cap space

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by adambr2, Feb 18, 2013.

  1. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Any good websites for keeping track of cap space? Anyone have any insight as to where we are right now? From my understand, we should be around $20-$25M under the cap right now with the release of Woodson and Saturday. Just always interesting to see where we are at and get a better idea of what we might expect.
     
  2. SpartaChris

    SpartaChris Cheesehead

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    PFT posts periodic updates on available cap figures. Walter Football does as well, and you can also check out rotoworld.
     
  3. Packer Fan in SD

    Packer Fan in SD Cheesehead

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    I just read it was right around $19.5 mil after releasing Saturday, per Tom Silverstein on Bleacher Report., down from $21 mil he said earlier today.
     
  4. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Here are 3 sources, which often don't agree on some contract details:

    1. sportrac looks like the best source at the moment for 2013 cap space; it looks pretty accurate at the top, and I see it has Matthew's escalator included and Woodson/Saturday have been dropped, so it should be current:

    http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/cap-hit/ then click on 2013 Cap Hits tab

    Note that these guys show about $109 mil for the top 51 (the others don't count against the cap) and the $7 mil 2012 carryover. With the 2013 cap estimated at about $121 mil, that would put us at about $19 mil under the cap at this time. They even take pains to count up "dead cap" space for PS guys who were released and resigned to new futures contracts after the season...that's painfully detailed.

    In general, unless Ball hands you his spreadsheet or a reporter gives you a specific number and states that it is fresh from an inside source, you'll probably not do better than sportrac.

    Silverstein might have cribbed from this source.

    2. Later on, for a point of comparison, GBPG will keep a running list (periodically updated), but they're still stuck on 2012:

    http://www.packersnews.com/interact...-Bay-Packers-2012-salaries-salary-cap-numbers

    3. rotoworld.com usually has the most detail on individual contracts in one spot:

    http://www.rotoworld.com/teams/contracts/nfl/gb/green-bay-packers?rw=1
     
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  5. Packer Fan in SD

    Packer Fan in SD Cheesehead

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    Nice post and great links. I hate waiting for this kind of info. Thanks.
     
  6. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    It should be noted that the $19 mil cap space includes NOTHING for Shields and EDS, both restricted FAs.

    The consensus seems to be EDS will draw a 2nd. round tender...that would result in a $2 mil cap hit. He might even draw a 1st. round tender when you consider he's the only guy on the roster who can snap the ball, other than a PS guy picked up last month. That would be a $2.9 mil hit.

    The consensus also seems to peg Shields at a 2nd. round tender as well. Personally, I think that would be a mistake. More than one team would be willing to give up that pick for a quality #2 cover corner (if not #1). We could always match the highest offer (in which case TT would probably go out back and flagellate himself), so you'd think he'd work to avoid that with the 1st. round tender.

    So, EDS and Shields knock that $19 mil down to $13 - $14 mil.

    Crabtree, Zombo and Francois are also RFA's, but the low tender is $1.3 mil. Only Crabtree might draw that, or he might not be tendered at all. If tendered, he'll roll one of the min salary guys out of the top 51...about a $900,000 cap hit.

    That takes you down to $12 - $13 mil.

    You often see the draft picks estimated at $5 mil per team. But you have to subtract the cap hits of the guys they displace. If, for example, you kept 7 draftees at $5 mil, but cut 7 minimum salary guys at around $500k each to make room, the draft should cost about $2.5 mil in cap hit.

    Now we're down around $10 mil. And teams usually like to keep a few million cushion.

    We could probably extend both Rodgers and Matthews without any hit to the 2013 cap...but it would require very fat signing bonuses in "cap friendly" deals. Those deals would be crushing in terms of escalating cap hits down the road, or the dreaded dead cap if these players get hurt or go into decline down the road. Matthews is a concern on this latter count.

    I think somebody else of note would have to be cut to make those numbers. Finley, Pickett, T. Williams. Of course, we'd all like to send Hawk packing, but that's only $2 - $2.5 mil in cap savings (depending on the source), unless we cut him after 6/1. But that just pushes the dead cap problem to next year.

    So...somebody needs to explain to me how we're going to overpay Raji for inconsistent performance in an extension? Wouldn't it be ironic if Pickett were cut to sign Raji long term?

    If anybody thinks we should sign Benson, B. Jones or Walden, they're FAs and not counted in the numbers above. All of these guys would make more than the guys at the bottom of the top 51, so you'd have to subtract some from the cap space...something like $500,000 per player.

    Woodson was not a choice...it was nearly an imperative.
     
  7. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    Matthews hit escalators in his contract which I don't know if they have shown up on the websites
     
  8. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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  9. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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  10. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Who could say if every web sight has caught anything about anything?

    sportrac, right now, seems to have the thing nailed right down the line.
     
  11. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Great links and thank you.

    My opinion only - EDS and Shields both get 2nd round tags. I cant imagine them thinking EDS is worthy of a 1st. If someone wanted to sign him to an offer sheet for a 2nd round tag I think TT would smile and take the pick.

    Shields I see as being somewhat more likely to get the 1st round tag.
     
  12. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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  13. TJV

    TJV Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    Yesterday someone on the radio said there hasn't been an RFA that went to a different team in several years. Not sure if that's true or not but I do know there's usually a lot of talk of both Packers RFAs and others on Packers sites that come to nothing. While Shields is certainly the more attractive player, my guess is - and it's just a guess - if Shields and EDS are tendered 2nd rounders they'll remain Packers. The cap increase for 2013 is slight for every team and I'll bet every team has players they want to retain. But it is a gamble and if either were claimed, it would put the Packers' back to the wall.

    When I look at a list of Packers and their 2013 cap hits the name that really doesn't belong IMO is Hawk at #4. Some may say Finley but his cap hit just pertains to a contract expiring at the end of this year. Hawk's is for a contract with several years to run and his impact on the field just doesn't equate to his compensation or cap hit for 2013. I really hope they approach him and if he isn't willing to renegotiate, I hope they waive him.
     
  14. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Here's a link to a piece by Brandt discussing the decline of RFA sign-aways, pointing to (1) the rookie salary scale making draft picks an improved value proposition, (2) teams viewing offers as doing the negotiation for the original team and (3) past indications of collusion:

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7820396/nfl-restricted-free-agency-verge-extinction

    That makes sense.

    On the other hand, if a team with either (1) an acute need at CB or (2) a highly paid CB not playing up to his contract that needs replacing, Shields might provide a decent value proposition at a 2nd. round tender, particularly if the team likes to play a fair amount of man D.

    For example, 4 years at $15 million would be a reasonable price for a good cover corner (who comes cheaper with his undrafted pedigree). The Pack should choose to match that offer if it came down to it.

    The 1st. round tender has a price tag of an additional $900,000. I don't think anybody would give up a 1st. round pick in the bargain. So the first round tender is a $900,000 insurance policy against having to match the highest offer under a 2nd. round tender. Seems reasonable.

    Of course, this assessment reflects my opinion that Shields is underrated among most fans and usually in the press.

    To illustrate, if I had to choose between either Shields or T. Williams at this point, I'd take Shields. Now look at T. Williams' contract. Imagine another team with a T. Williams-like player with a similar contract. A swap for Shields at the cost of a 2nd. round pick, while buying cap space, could look fairly attractive.
     
  15. BorderRivals.com

    BorderRivals.com Cheesehead

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    I'd be surprised if TT throws a 2nd-rd. tender on EDS. He has limited time at center and was below-average at guard. So, any team looking at him has to only consider him a question mark - which is what he is. And given that RFA's are rarely signed by opposing teams, I bet TT uses the lowest tender, which essentially guarantees his right to match any offer. Remember, part of this is leveraging for contract negotiations. If we use a 2nd rd. tender, we tip our hand if you will.
     
  16. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Then there's the other side of the coin.

    If we go original round tender on EDS, who was undrafted, he can be signed away for no compensation. This is nearly tantamount to making him an unrestricted free agent at a minimum $1.3 million, but with right to match.

    For about $600,000 in insurance with the 2nd. round tender, we can pretty much guarantee nobody will tender.

    Again, it depends how you view the player. I see him as an adequate, inexpensive starter; a decent value at a non-impact position. Other teams might see it the same way.

    Then there's the "opportunity cost", to borrow a term from the investing world, associated with the loss of EDS.

    Dunno if anybody else has noticed, but EDS and some PS guy are the only guys on this roster with any experience snapping the ball. If EDS departs, you've gone from finding a backup to finding both a starter and a backup. And you'll probably have to go 3rd. round, if not higher, to get a rookie capable of snapping game 1, play 1. In that case you forgo the opportunity to fill another position, and that is a cost. That pick is better spent elsewhere.

    There are always plenty of forces at work trying to put your back against the wall; you shouldn't do it to yourself to save a few bucks.
     
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  17. BorderRivals.com

    BorderRivals.com Cheesehead

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    You can correct me if I'm wrong, tendering the lowest amount still allows the Packers to match any offer. Essentially, we allow the market dictate the contract we sign him for. I'd be surprised if he's not resigned regardless of the tender. So, you might as well keep whatever leverage you have by tendering him at the lower amount, knowing you can always match the offer given. It's a bit of a gamble of course. But, as I said before, I doubt a team would make too lucrative of an offer when there's so much unknown about his game, especially when he's proven not to be a capable guard, thereby pigeon-holing him to center. As we know, it's best to have linemen that have some versatility.
     
  18. BorderRivals.com

    BorderRivals.com Cheesehead

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    While we are on the tenders topic - what's the need to sign Crabtree? We have a litany of TE's. The lowest tender is $1.3M, so nothing special. But given that we are still pretty tight to the cap when you account for looming contract extensions, Crabtree is expendable in my mind. Ryan Taylor or the next drafted/undrafted TE or other player can fill Crabtree's roles without the cost.
     
  19. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Actually, I edited that post to include the right to match as you were writing your reply, so you are correct.

    I think EDS's 4 games starting at C gives a better picture of what to expect from him going forward than the prognosis for, say, a 3rd. round pick who hasn't seen an NFL snap. It seems you might be valuing him as a C/G swing man backup. I see him as an adequate and inexpensive starting center, with G value being irrelevant.

    So, yes, there is a risk in offering him the low tender. That needs to be weighed against $600,000. That $ amount also happens to be tied to a one year contract (assuming no offers at the 2nd. round tender), affording a low risk opportunity to see how he progresses in 2013. At the low tender, you might have to match a multiyear deal from a team looking for a relatively cheap center.

    I'm not suggesting the guy will be some Pro Bowl candidate at any point down the road. Then again, we're talking about $2.0 mil for one year under the 2nd. round tender. That's not even decent starter money.
     
  20. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Tendering Crabtree is a stretch. He's a decent blocker; he can catch a little. His chief virtue is experience in the system and special teams. $1.3 mil is probably a bit stiff for that level of contribution. On the other hand, we'll be paying Bush $1.35 mil to cover kicks.

    If the decision is made to let Finley go, Crabtree moves to default #1 TE for good or ill, with no certainty about what will be available in the draft.
     
  21. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Out of curiosity, and for context, I'm presenting below under/over cap figures for all teams as determined by sportrac. As noted above, sportrac looks to be very current, they include dead cap money, and have factored in cap carry forwards.

    "+" indicates amount over the cap
    "-" indicates amount under the cap
    cap is assumed to be $121 mil + carryovers
    figures are presented in $millions

    Keep in mind these numbers don't include any $ for any team's unsigned FAs and RFAs. $'s for team or player options not yet exercised (e.g., Steven Jackson) are included.

    NFC Central

    GB -18.7
    MIN -13.0
    CHI -10.2
    DET -1.7

    NFC East

    WASH +3.9
    NYG -4.3
    DAL +18.7
    PHI -19.7

    NFC West

    SF +3.1
    SEA -14.9
    STL +2.9
    AZ +2.5

    NFC South

    ATL -4.3
    CAR +6.1
    NO +15.7
    TB -30.6

    AFC Central

    BAL -12.5
    CIN -55.4
    PIT +12.5
    CLE -49.6

    AFC East

    NE -16.8
    MIA -42.8
    NYJ -6.3
    BUF -20.4

    AFC West

    DEN -15.8
    SD -5.8
    OAK +1.4
    KC -17.4

    AFC South

    HOU -6.3
    IND -44.9
    TEN -18.5
    JAX -25.3
     
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  22. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    A few random observations regarding the above team-by-team cap figures:

    The league total is $388 mil under the cap, or about $12 mil per team. Keep in mind these figures include nothing for unsigned free agents. 2nd. tier guys up for second or third contracts may be disappointed.

    While CIN might appear to be the cap-adjusted SB winner (10-6 record, $55.4 mil under the cap), they have 28 unsigned free agents by my count.

    OAK is even worse off than it looks...they have overpriced players at the top of their salary list with tons of dead cap space if cut. They've already taken a $12 mil dead cap hit for 2013 for Seymour. McKenzie has quite a mess to hack through.

    This is year 1 of the 49er cap squeeze. They must dump Alex Smith, but even that's not enough to franchise Goldson and stay under the cap. Leonard Davis and Sopoaga are also FA's. Then there's cap needed for the upper draftees, and some kind of cushion. Kaepernick is a FA after 2014...right now he's paid peanuts. A big renegotiation would be in the cards at this time next season.
     
  23. TJV

    TJV Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    One thing is certain – there are A LOT of moving parts for GMs to consider: Obviously the decision made on one player’s extension/waiver/tag/retention has consequences for the other players at that position and cap consequences that can affect the rest of the roster.

    HardRightEdge makes a good point about the difference in cost of a 1st and 2nd round tender being “cheap” insurance but if I had to guess today I’d still guess 2nd round tenders for both Shields and EDS. EDS has to be retained as HardRightEdge suggests but I agree there won’t be much of a market for him. And I agree Shields is more valuable than Tramon at this point but IMO Tramon was/is the best cover man so I’m hoping for the four-way competition between those two and Hayward and House as Whitt promised. I’m holding out hope Tramon’s shoulder will continue to improve allowing him to be more physical but that could be a pipe dream. Even if he duplicates his 2012 performance (he was frequently covering the opponents’ best WR) he will be valuable even if he isn’t starting. I’m sure Thompson and staff have a lot better idea of which teams may be tempted by a tender on any particular player - it’ll be interesting to see what they do.
     
  24. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    NYJ released a lot of Salary Cap-related guys today including recent top-5 pick, OT Jason Smith.

    ProFootballFocus actually showed that he was an above-average OT this year, and IIRC from today's Tweet, he was a +player and only allowed one sack..... let me see if I can fish that tweet out.

    Putting aside his bust status, Jason Smith earned a +4.6 @PFF run block grade and allowed just 1 sack this season in 265 snaps. #Jets
     
  25. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    How AZ is that bad and over the cap is mind blowing.
     
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